Now that I think about it, there's another set of assumptions above that work against Boston. Specifically, I'm assuming the bullpen pitches the same way as they had in the set of games I'd analyzed. There are two assumptions implicit in that.

1. The pen will need to cover just as many innings with Pomeranz as they had with Buchholz/Rodriguez. Pomeranz has been going a little deeper into games than they have.

2. The pen will be deployed the same way with Pomeranz as it had with Buchholz/Rodriguez. Likely if Pomeranz is pitching better than they have there will be some games where the ball is handed to Uehara/Kimbrel instead of the back end.

Either should reduce R/G coming from the bullpen, which makes those games an even better chance of producing a Boston victory.

Good thoughtful analysis. Thank you.

Good thoughtful analysis. Thank you.

You're not earning your screen name. ;-)

With age, my standards have declined. At least as it related to baseball analysis.

The younger me may have just put "analysis" in air quotes... but you see individuals can grow, or maybe shrink depending on your perspective of this charactuer.

With age, my standards have declined. At least as it related to baseball analysis.

Clearly, so have mine.

Good stuff. I think Pomeranz' biggest contribution could just be eliminating the "oh #### it's 5-0 in the third" games that have been too common this year. Among other things simply being able to cut down some relief innings would be good.

And in the 4th, Robbie Ross Jr. is warming up.

Answer: Better than he was in the 4th inning tonight.

Man, if they lose this one, it will not feel good.

The great escape! well at least the top of the 6th....

Tomorrows Globe;

Pomeranz Pitches Sox Into First!

Am I wrong in thinking the Padres got an awfully light haul for Pomeranz?

So... If tonight's performance means that we might see "Matt Barnes, Relief Ace" over the last 2 months of the season, sign me up.

It's likely a status borne out of necessity, but necessity is, after all, the mother of invention (or, in this case perhaps, reinvention)...

Spahn - I don't think so. Espinoza is a top 25 prospect. I'd be surprised if the Padres could've done meaningfully better. Baseball America had him 19th at the start of the year.

I think he fair question is whether they'd have been better off going for a package (e.g. Kopech and Chavis) that gives them a little wiggle room if one prospect doesn't pan out.

Just to update BA had Espinoza 15th in their mid season update.

Am I wrong in thinking the Padres got an awfully light haul for Pomeranz?

Awfully light? No. Light? Maybe. Espinoza is among the top pitching prospects in the minors, but it was noted elsewhere (Fangraphs, maybe?) that the others ranked near him are in the high minors while he's in A-ball. He's higher ceiling than them but being so early in his development he's also higher risk.

If Pomeranz in 2016-18 is what Pomeranz has been with the Padres, then they just gave that up to get someone else who might be that good in 2020-25. That could be light, or it could be a wise investment.

- - - - -

Man, if this were the old Sox Therapy, then all the people who didn't like the trade would've been out here first thing this morning to scream I TOLD YOU SO! I'm a little disappointed in the sedation level here. How can I be a Therapist if everyone's OK?

Man, if this were the old Sox Therapy, then all the people who didn't like the trade would've been out here first thing this morning to scream I TOLD YOU SO! I'm a little disappointed in the sedation level here. How can I be a Therapist if everyone's OK?

Maybe the passage of time has skewed my view, but I think in the old Sox Therapy, the morning after a sweep of a good team that vaults the Sox into first place would consist of positive posts. The doom and gloom wouldn't seep in until midday.

7 games post ASB, 6 quality starts.

DOOM!

and also

GLOOM!

(It was mid-day; I couldn't resist...)

So do they get a bucket of balls for Buchholz? Or just outright release him when the roster crunch comes within the next week or so?

He's someone that, to be honest, a team like the Phillies should be all over--(1) relatively cheap, 1-year deal for next year if you want him (and they have tons of $ available next year); (2) might get a dead cat "bounce" going to the NL: (3) they're still a year or two away and need bodies to soak innings for next year.

I was talking with a friend last night about Buchholz, saying that he needs an NL team out of the running who would be willing to give him innings this year and pick up the option for next year. Sure, Phillies, that'll work.

DOOM


GLOOM













I'm not waiting for the morning.

Beside that one blowup inning against the Giants, he's been just alright. He's averaged a ton of pitches per inning (16.6 plus) pitching in great ballparks and/or the National League. It's not a surprise that he hasn't been able to go deep into games thus far, although his pitches per inning of 18 should come down. He looks like a backend starter in the AL from his repertoire to his command/control.

Despite Olney reporting that the Red Sox are not seeking alterations of their trade for Pomeranz, I'm still clinging to the hope that there's something going on. Espinoza should've started on Saturday but didn't. He last pitched on Sunday and the pitcher who went the day before started this past Friday. He's not listed for Sunday or Monday either. Maybe they're skipping him to keep his innings down and give him a break, it's very possible. On the other hand, maybe there are negotiations going on that involve somehow returning Espinoza back to the Red Sox and giving the Padres a different package of players fitting for a pitcher in Pomeranz who has an undisclosed medical condition the Red Sox were not aware of. Maybe that's why the Padres started a 21 year old pitcher who already has a journeyman profile instead of Espinoza tonight.