- With the one game lead the Sox have a nice benefit that even if they lose two out of three they will leave Toronto in a tie for first place.  That is A-OK in my book.

As is the notion that if they lose two out of three they will have gone 5-4 on the road trip.

But I would feel much more comfortable if they go 2-1 in Toronto. Up 2 games on the Jays, a relatively balanced schedule remaining (10 home & 10 road, 2 series against BAL and NYY, 1 series each against the Jays and Rays)... That feels like a much bigger difference than it likely is.

"Fun" is the operative word for this team this year, isn't it? OK, the bullpen hasn't been fun at all, but otherwise... I mean, if you wanted a thrilling stretch drive you'd want Boston to be on top with 23 games left, 3 teams within reach, and 20 of the 23 being against those teams. Oh, and of those teams, the one furthest back being the one playing the best right now. Could be a wild ride, so with the Sox idle tonight it's laundry day for the pants pissers.

But I would feel much more comfortable if they go 2-1 in Toronto. Up 2 games on the Jays, a relatively balanced schedule remaining (10 home & 10 road, 2 series against BAL and NYY, 1 series each against the Jays and Rays)... That feels like a much bigger difference than it likely is.

Yup. This is where MCoA running some numbers would be great. I don't have that knowledge but I suspect that this late in the year there is a very real difference in Division Title Expectancy depending on a 2-1 or 1-2 series result.

It's amazing to think where this team is both in practical terms and emotional terms as a fan. Go back to the morning after the end of that Yankee series. The Sox were 3 games back, slumping a bit and had a pretty grueling schedule ahead of them. They've gone 17-9 since then and have both the most runs scored and the fewest runs allowed in the Majors. That was the day I wrote that the Sox would win 12 out of 15 at some point but I didn't think they'd get hot right away and I was genuinely concerned that by the time they got around to doing that it might be too late. Fortunately not only have the Sox played well but Baltimore and Toronto have not.

It was encouraging to see Koji Uehara look so effective on Wednesday night. If you didn’t stay up late for it he was really peppering his spots in vintage fashion. His velocity was good and the splitter was nasty.

Thanks, I was curious about this. Even with him, it's going to be high tension watching this bullpen sweat through if they have a small lead in the Dome this weekend.

Yeah, at this point I just assume any game closer than 5 runs in the 8th is still wide open. But Koji looked very good. He made Myers look ridiculous on an 0-1 splitter than Myers missed by roughly a time zone and every fastball was out of the zone or on the black. He was throwing that high fastball especially effectively I thought.

it's going to be high tension watching this bullpen sweat through if they have a small lead in the Dome this weekend.

Hopefully Farrell leaves Tazawa in the pen permanently for the series. Against teams he's pitched against more than 10 times Toronto by far hits him the most. Over 29 innings the Jays have hit him for a 1.039 OPS - including 9 HR's. That's...not good.

Hopefully Farrell leaves Tazawa in the pen permanently for the series.

Tazawa is pitching like someone who could use a week or two off. They certainly have enough arms to make it happen.

Not that this has any bearing on the way the series will play out, but the mood in Toronto is pessimistic, especially on the heels of a sweep to the Yankees. This is one extremely nervous and dejected fanbase. There will be a seemingly optimistic din at the series outset, but that will be more of an attempt to rile the team up than to prematurely celebrate its presumed inevitable success.

The worry is that if the team doesn't soon wake up, things could start heading south with no rebound in sight, particularly with so many teams vying for playoff/wild card spots.

Nice to see some concern from the Boston fanbase.

Nice to see some concern from the Boston fanbase.

The Boston fanbase is... Well, I'll set the entire fanbase aside and focus on this crowd. Here we've been working with the expectation all year long that the Blue Jays are the team to beat, and that it's only a matter of time before they flip the switch and take over the division. We're now, what, 140 games into the season and it's looking like that switch ain't getting flipped. While that has me feeling better about Boston's chances in general, the small difference in standings takes that away and will keep things tense.

I feel like the Boston bullpen is more likely to implode than the Jays' bullpen, but at the same time I feel like the Boston lineup is more likely to have a late rally than the Jays' lineup. If both of these teams were better than they were it would feel like an "irresistible force vs. immovable object" kind of matchup. Instead it feels like anything could happen.

Here we've been working with the expectation all year long that the Blue Jays are the team to beat, and that it's only a matter of time before they flip the switch and take over the division. We're now, what, 140 games into the season and it's looking like that switch ain't getting flipped.

That's a good call. There is a 1990 vibe to this race. That Blue Jays team was appreciably better than that Red Sox but things just played out in our favor.

Regarding the general emotion I can only speak for myself but I'm relatively confident that the Sox are going to be in a playoff of some sort but the division is far from certain. I can't imagine that the Jays will keep struggling. Like the Red Sox they are a different team at home and it wouldn't shock me if they came out and crunched a bunch of homers this weekend.

I really think this should be a fun weekend let's assume the following;

Boston 1-2
Toronto 2-1
Baltimore 2-1
New York 3-1

That would have it;

Boston -
Toronto -
Baltimore 1.0
New York 3.0

with the Tigers tied with New York two games back. I honestly didn't realize those teams were playing. As big as this Sox/Jay series is that Orioles/Tiger series is enormous because unlike Boston and Toronto the loser of that series is completely on the outside looking in.

Yeah, I don't think I'd assume Baltimore is taking 2 of 3 from Detroit. The Tigers are playing like the Yankees have been, and Baltimore is doing what everyone has been predicting incorrectly for 3 seasons now (namely, losing). A sweep wouldn't be surprising. But your scenario is more fun for an impartial observer.

Told you it would be fun.

Man, I know 20 wins does mean what it did but I'm thrilled for Porcello. You need to stay healthy and be consistently solid and he's done that. With this bullpen the fact that he's gotten deep into games on a regular basis has been critical.

Told you it would be fun. Now how do I get some nitroglycerine tablets?

It's early to take much stock in the weather forecast for Sunday night, but it looks really rainy. I wonder what they would do for scheduling if they can't play. The teams' remaining lone off-day is not the same. A 2-city doubleheader on the 27th!? A game on October 3 played only if necessary for playoff seeding?

I'd bet the Sox would have a "home game" in the Bronx that last week of the season.

I doubt they'd agree to that. Is there a precedent for that kind of thing?

Someone...the Indians maybe? did that recently. I get why the Sox wouldn't want to agree to that but man, how else do you do it? Hmmmm...maybe you play in Boston on Tuesday then play a split admission DH on Wednesday in the Bronx. That could work. I don't think a two city DH works. I mean you need 3 hours to get from Fenway to NYS between all the various travel. That's a ##### of a day. I'd be shocked if the union would sign off on that. "Sit on buses and planes for 2 1/2-3 hours then go play a crucial game" is a recipe for injury.

Ah, found it;

In baseball, sometimes, when teams are playing a makeup game from an earlier game postponed by rain, the game may have to be made up in the other team's stadium. An example of this occurred on September 26, 2007, with a game between the Cleveland Indians, who were the "home" team, but the game was played vs. the Seattle Mariners in Safeco Field, with their fans, etc.[5]...and the Toronto Blue Jays playing a 2010 home series with the Philadelphia Phillies in the Phillies' Citizens Bank Park while the G-20 Summit was being held near the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Their D3 win differential at BBPro is now a whopping -12.4 wins.

In games decided by 8 or more runs, the Sox are 13-1.

In games decided by games decided by 3 runs or fewer, they are 37-45.

In blowouts, the runs just seem to keep on coming. In close games the bats seem to go silent, esp. late and close, and, combined with the iffy bullpen, they simply don't win the close ones.

Thanks, Jose. I agree that the distance is too large for a split-city doubleheader.

I'm guessing that they will try anything at all to get 5 soggy innings played. If the bad weather is coming late, common sense would have them move the start time earlier in the day; but TV contracts usually defeat common sense.

I am going to the game and don't want this past Tuesday's game to be the last time I see Papi play in the flesh.

Hmmmm...maybe you play in Boston on Tuesday then play a split admission DH on Wednesday in the Bronx. That could work.

If it's a meaningful game, you might be able to get at least 20,000 of Fenway ticketholders to travel down there (or hand off their tickets to someone who will travel down there). Maybe more if it's possible that it's Ortiz's last game.

In blowouts, the runs just seem to keep on coming. In close games the bats seem to go silent, esp. late and close, and, combined with the iffy bullpen, they simply don't win the close ones.

I think PR and third order wins don't work well for a team like the Sox largely for this reason. I don't think the Sox' bats really go silent late in close games, at least not unusually so, I think it's just that there is no maximum you can score in a rout. That game in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 16-2 right? Something like that. As a practical matter I don't think 11-2 or 16-2 really tells you anything about how good a team you have but a few of those skew your PR. By contrast you can't give up less than 0 runs so a pitching heavy team gets dinged a bit.

For what it's worth I looked it up after the game last night. The Sox have the fewest number of games below 3 runs and are second in games below 2 runs, 1 run and shutouts.

I don't think the Sox' bats really go silent late in close games, at least not unusually so

It's a tautology. If their bats don't go silent, it won't be a close game.

I would like to say this was fun.

For what it's worth I looked it up after the game last night. The Sox have the fewest number of games below 3 runs and are second in games below 2 runs, 1 run and shutouts.

In other words, their standard deviation of runs scored is highest in the majors. Yep.

It's a tautology. If their bats don't go silent, it won't be a close game.

Except you can actually, you know, check how often they do go silent in close games. In high leverage, their OPS drops 46 points.

I would like to say this was fun.

When I went to bed, it was 1-5 in the 8th inning, sure I'd wake up and have them tied for the division, with the Yucking Fankees now within only 3 games.

#######.

In other words, their standard deviation of runs scored is highest in the majors. Yep.

Isn't that a function of them scoring #### tons of runs a bunch of the time? I'm not a statistician so help me here but I would expect an offense like the Sox (or Orioles) to have huge Std. Dev. just by virtue of the high number of double digit run games.

Except you can actually, you know, check how often they do go silent in close games. In high leverage, their OPS drops 46 points.

Their OPS is still well above average (.762 vs. .734) in HiLev situations. They are 7th in MLB and 4th in AL (Texas, Detroit and Cleveland) in HiLev situations. FWIW in Medium Leverage situations they have a .062 edge on the second place team (Colorado).

Except you can actually, you know, check how often they do go silent in close games. In high leverage, their OPS drops 46 points.

There is significant correlation between the definition of high leverage and the way the team is hitting. Many high-lev situations result from the team not having been hitting to begin with; many low-lev situations result from the team raking the whole game. If all they do is continue to hit late in a game the way they hit early in a game you will see a lower OPS in high-lev situations, simply because a high-lev situation is less likely to arise in a game when they are hitting well.

It's kind of like seeing that their OPS is higher with RISP than it is with nobody on. The presence and position of baserunners tells us something about how the team is doing against the pitcher, which is predictive of how they will do. They don't always succeed, and hell, they don't always face the same pitcher who got into that mess, but the general pattern holds.

Every day that ticks off the calendar without losing ground is a good day.

I didn't watch the early part of the game--Did EdRod leave because there were too many high-stress pitched in one inning? Because the pitch count was not very high (relatively) and you would have thought Farrell wouldn't have wanted to burn the pen in the first game of a series... I didn't know if there was any injury there or anything we should worry about.

Isn't that a function of them scoring #### tons of runs a bunch of the time? I'm not a statistician so help me here but I would expect an offense like the Sox (or Orioles) to have huge Std. Dev. just by virtue of the high number of double digit run games.

Yes.

Actually, the fact that they have "the fewest number of games below 3 runs and are second in games below 2 runs, 1 run and shutouts" tells us nothing about the standard deviation. All other things being equal the lack of negative deviations from their average would tell us their standard deviation is lower, not higher. It's higher precisely because they have so many games where they have scored a ton of runs.

I didn't watch the early part of the game--Did EdRod leave because there were too many high-stress pitched in one inning? Because the pitch count was not very high (relatively) and you would have thought Farrell wouldn't have wanted to burn the pen in the first game of a series... I didn't know if there was any injury there or anything we should worry about.

No, he was just pitching like crap.

Farrell seems to be taking a page from the Playoff Tito handbook lately. He's been more aggressive with his managing. I thought the most interesting move last night was one that failed spectacularly, pinch hitting Hill for Bradley to start the ninth. I thought it was absolutely the right call but a move I didn't expect for loyalty reasons and all that. I also thought he was smart in using Hill there knowing he HAD to face the lefty who had just entered the game then sent Young to hit for Benintendi knowing that Young would be the better option against a righty if Girardi pulled the trigger on Layne. Ultimately Hill fanned and Young got hit so it's not like any of it really panned out for Farrell but I liked the process.

A few years ago the NYY came back on us something like 8 runs in the 9th. Last night soothed some of that lingering pain, especially since it effectively eliminated them from the division and put a serious hurt on any WC aspirations, as well.

especially since it effectively eliminated them from the division and put a serious hurt on any WC aspirations, as well.

I fully expect to pick up at least one more win this weekend which will do this but we aren't there yet. The Yankees can still leave town 2 games out of at least a WC berth.