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   1. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 09, 2019 at 12:33 AM (#5829821)
Happy banner day Therapudians!
   2. villageidiom Posted: April 09, 2019 at 08:13 AM (#5829839)
This is the first Red Sox ring ceremony in my lifetime that I'm not attending. #firstplaceproblems

Is it just me, or does it never seem like the season has actually started until the home opener has happened? I mean, I know (and regret) the last 11 games actually count, but the home opener always feels to me like the "real" opening day.

As of today, Boston is the only team in MLB that is winless at home this year. On a more positive spin Houston, the Cubs, Detroit(?), and Boston are the only teams that are undefeated at home this year as of today.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: April 09, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5829863)
I’ll be in the Pavillion Box above the first base dugout
Have a great time! That's an awesome viewpoint, but dress warm.
   4. jmurph Posted: April 09, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5829925)
Pedroia is officially in the starting lineup.
   5. pikepredator Posted: April 09, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5829939)
Is it just me, or does it never seem like the season has actually started until the home opener has happened? I mean, I know (and regret) the last 11 games actually count, but the home opener always feels to me like the "real" opening day.


It's not just you. It's part of the reason I haven't been overly bothered by the rough start. Game ON!

This afternoon is going to fly by at work.
   6. Chip Posted: April 09, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5830026)
OK, NESN got me in the sweet spot right away at the top of 2:00 PM with the actual game broadcast open, after all the ceremonies: a Yaz voiceover for a video montage in which he adopts the persona of the yard: “My name is Fenway Park ...”
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 09, 2019 at 05:35 PM (#5830180)
Not much of a party here. C’mon, can’t we celebrate Clint Frazier possibly finally overcoming the Curse of Jose? Although I suppose it’s more of a jinx than a curse, eh?
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: April 09, 2019 at 07:49 PM (#5830213)
Sox are 6 games out.
   9. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 09, 2019 at 08:04 PM (#5830218)
12 games guess it's over.

Total party at the ballpark. Had a ton of fun and had appropriately bundled up. Going through some pictures now, I'll share later.
   10. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 09, 2019 at 09:15 PM (#5830245)
If anyone is so interested here are some pictures from today.. It may just have been a timing trick but I took pictures of everyone getting their rings and Linda Pizzutti had a big smile EXCEPT when Steven Wright stepped forward.
   11. Chip Posted: April 09, 2019 at 11:40 PM (#5830285)
Sox are 6 games out.


Amazing that there’s only one good team in the division. Sox have been awful, dreadful, terrible, embarrassing ... and they’re still no worse than 3 back in the loss column from the collection of mediocrities not named the Rays.
   12. villageidiom Posted: April 10, 2019 at 08:29 AM (#5830322)
Nice pictures, Jose!
   13. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 10, 2019 at 08:45 AM (#5830326)
Thanks. I rented a nice camera and zoom lens for the occasion and it was money well spent.

Amazing that there’s only one good team in the division. Sox have been awful, dreadful, terrible, embarrassing ... and they’re still no worse than 3 back in the loss column from the collection of mediocrities not named the Rays.


As dreary as this is it's still only 12 games. I don't think any of us would be declaring the Yankees dead if the roles were reversed (though we'd be taking great joy in it) and I think it is equally foolish to dismiss the Sox. From 1995-2017 there have been 26 teams with 100 wins in a season.

Average wins in the next season - 95.4
Average decline - 7.9 wins
Worst decline - 23 wins (2001/2002 Mariners)

Four of the 26 won fewer than 90 games;
1999/2000 Arizona - 100 to 85
2011/2012 Philadelphia - 102 to 81
2015/2016 St. Louis - 100 to 86
2005/2006 St. Louis - 100 to 83

The truly elite teams, the 6 that won 104 or more games won an average of 97.5 the following season, none fewer than 92.

These count and the Sox can't dig too deep a hole but I expect when all is said and done we are looking at 95 wins here.
   14. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 11, 2019 at 08:43 PM (#5831033)
At what point do the Sox start thinking about bringing Leon back up? I mean, I know we are supposed to dismiss catcher ERA but there is a track record there and this is lunacy. The pitching staff is SO bad and the Sox are digging a hole here. I was content to let the road trip go away, come home and get the rings and get on with it but right now...I mean these guys are better than this.
   15. Answer Guy. Posted: April 11, 2019 at 10:01 PM (#5831052)
These count and the Sox can't dig too deep a hole but I expect when all is said and done we are looking at 95 wins here.


I am starting to doubt that. This pitching rotation looks like a complete disaster. Even at home against a pretty weak Toronto team.

Maybe bringing back Leon is what they need. If he really helps the pitching staff I don't care how badly he hits - it's not that their other catching options are exactly the second coming of Carlton Fisk anyway.
   16. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 11, 2019 at 10:34 PM (#5831071)
Thank god for Mitch Moreland.
   17. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 11, 2019 at 10:44 PM (#5831077)
That’s a great and important win this early in the year. A couple of things worth noting;

- We caught a couple of breaks. Go back to the first inning, ground ball hit Eovaldi’s glove with two men on but fortunately went right to Bogie for the 1-6-4-3 DP. Then in the ninth Grichuk almost reeled that in and he might have been able to double off Mookie if he had.

- Marcus Walden getting out of the ninth inning mess was huge obviously. If there is any reason for optimism right now it’s that the bullpen is answering all the questions. If the starters get their #### together that’s a really good thing.

- I’m probably overreacting but it feels like they finally got a wake up call with that five run third. It was like ok, enough is enough and poured it on.

That was needed. 4-9 isn’t great obviously but OK, 2 out of 3, here we go now boys. Take 3 out of 4 from Baltimore and start playing like you can.

Exhale.
   18. Answer Guy. Posted: April 11, 2019 at 10:55 PM (#5831082)
Yeah, the pen has been strangely good, at least in games where it remotely mattered. So I'm not hearing any clamoring for "bring back Kimbrel" despite the poor record.

I do own him as a keeper in a fantasy league so I really need someone to sign him. But it doesn't have to be the Sox. I figured the Cubs or Nats might have pulled the trigger already but no.
   19. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 11, 2019 at 11:07 PM (#5831084)
Brewer has impressed me. I’d like more strikes but he looks good. I’m still pretty much over the Heath Hembree experience.
   20. jmurph Posted: April 12, 2019 at 09:44 AM (#5831124)
That was needed. 4-9 isn’t great obviously but OK, 2 out of 3, here we go now boys. Take 3 out of 4 from Baltimore and start playing like you can.

The other thing here for me is that the Yankees have way more structural problems than Boston does. That rotation is a timebomb that may have already gone off. Now I still think they'll be good because the offense can be so good, but I'm just not convinced they're capable of running away and hiding while Boston gets their #### together.
   21. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 12, 2019 at 10:21 AM (#5831141)
Yeah, I think right now the questions in spring training are being answered positively for the Sox (bullpen notably) and negatively for the Yankees with the injuries. Obviously if the best ERA+ they get from a starter is 73 (Price) for the entire season then we are pretty well screwed. I think the thing that needs to be considered is how real Tampa are. They won 90 games last year and they are cooking right now. It's early but leads of 4.5 (NY) and 6 (BOS) on the competition means they just have to play even with them the rest of the year. I fully expect both teams to make up that difference with room to spare but I don't think they can be ignored.
   22. pikepredator Posted: April 12, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5831142)
Felt like one of those "no quit" 2018 games last night. Get in a hole, claw back, lose the lead, keep fighting, win in the 9th.

Beantown boys are bringin' the brooms to the birds in Baltimore.
   23. jmurph Posted: April 12, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5831149)
I think the thing that needs to be considered is how real Tampa are. They won 90 games last year and they are cooking right now. It's early but leads of 4.5 (NY) and 6 (BOS) on the competition means they just have to play even with them the rest of the year. I fully expect both teams to make up that difference with room to spare but I don't think they can be ignored.

Yep, that's the one concern, I agree. I'm still skeptical, based on no real evidence.
   24. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 12, 2019 at 01:25 PM (#5831207)
Skeptical the Sox/Yanks can make up the ground or skeptical of the Rays?
   25. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 12, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5831217)
I think the thing that needs to be considered is how real Tampa are. They won 90 games last year and they are cooking right now.

There is still time, of course, for the favorites to overtake the Rays, but I don’t expect it to be all that easy. The Rays are looking pretty good. Probably will need to beat them head-to-head rather than depending on help or waiting for them to collapse.
   26. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 12, 2019 at 01:55 PM (#5831223)
My question on the Rays is depth. The Sox and Yankees have resources to deal with injuries or make trades, I don't know if the Rays are able to do that. I feel like they need to be particularly healthy to get to the mid-90s.
   27. SoSH U at work Posted: April 12, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5831226)
There is still time, of course, for the favorites to overtake the Rays, but I don’t expect it to be all that easy. The Rays are looking pretty good. Probably will need to beat them head-to-head rather than depending on help or waiting for them to collapse.


I agree. I don't know how the hell the Rays won 90 last year, but I'm done doubting them. They look good, and I expect them to be there the whole way.
   28. pikepredator Posted: April 12, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5831233)
I'm done doubting them. They look good, and I expect them to be there the whole way.


every year they surprise me by being better than I expect . . . my expectations need adjusting.
   29. Nasty Nate Posted: April 12, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5831234)
Wow, Gary Sanchez is now on the IL.
   30. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 12, 2019 at 02:50 PM (#5831250)
Wow, Gary Sanchez is now on the IL.


Nice. He's one of those guys who is easy to dislike.
   31. Darren Posted: April 13, 2019 at 11:40 AM (#5831449)
How come Mookie couldn't be like the Braves guys and just sign a terrible contract early? Oh well.

That was a good win in a lot of ways. ERod looked terrific--finally a good start out of someone.

I have hope for Thornburg, though I know not everyone does.
   32. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 13, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5831453)
ERod looked terrific


He really did, but he still gave up a HR!
   33. SoSH U at work Posted: April 13, 2019 at 01:02 PM (#5831462)
Only a half-game out of second. They're charging.
   34. Chip Posted: April 13, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5831467)
Porcello loads the bases with his second walk of the 1st and gives up Chris Davis’s first hit for a 2-run single.

Charge dissipates.
   35. Answer Guy. Posted: April 14, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5831703)
All Chris Davis needed was some contact with Red Sox pitching.
   36. Darren Posted: April 14, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5831718)
He gave up a HR after the fielding cost him two chances to get out of the inning. But even including the HR, a nice outing.
   37. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 14, 2019 at 08:12 PM (#5831847)
EdRod also could’ve been out of the inning on the pitch before which should have been a called third strike. C’est la vie. 6 2/3 2 runs or 7 IP, 0 runs either way it’s a good night. The Sox pitchers are starting to get going hopefully though how much of that is not sucking and how much is facing the Orioles is an open question.

Still, 6-10 is not an especially poor performance. They’ve done that (or worse) in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016 and 2017 and those were all 90 win seasons.

The problem with this is not so much the performance it’s that by having it come so early they are kind of using up a “worst stretch” right out of the gate. It uses up some margin for error later in the year.
   38. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 14, 2019 at 09:11 PM (#5831861)
It's great to see E-Rod and now Price throw good games. I will be much happier if Sale can look as he has in the past. I've no hope for Rick "I won't be playing for the Red Sox next year" Porcello at this stage though. If Eovaldi can look half decent then all will be good. 92-93 wins is still definitely in sight and I'm happy with that.
   39. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: April 14, 2019 at 10:41 PM (#5831874)
https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/orioles-9-red-sox-5-deciphering-what-wrong-rick-porcello regarding Porcello’s mechanics. I’m sure it’s not as easy as “just do it the way you did last year” but it seems fixable to me.
   40. Answer Guy. Posted: April 15, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5832108)
Still, 6-10 is not an especially poor performance. They’ve done that (or worse) in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016 and 2017 and those were all 90 win seasons.

The problem with this is not so much the performance it’s that by having it come so early they are kind of using up a “worst stretch” right out of the gate. It uses up some margin for error later in the year.


And now that 6-11 stretch includes 3-3 in 6 home games against a pair of terrible teams.

At this point I think I would take 90 wins without a second thought and hope that maybe between the Yankees slow start and injury issues and the Rays' limited capacity to address any in-season needs that could emerge the Sox could somehow still snag a playoff spot with those 90.
   41. jmurph Posted: April 15, 2019 at 04:09 PM (#5832114)
If I did the very basic math correctly (seriously, it's possible I didn't), if they play like a 95 win team the rest of the way they'll finish with 91 wins. Which should get them into the playoffs, though perhaps not as a division winner.

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