Great analysis. I was thinking of Encarnacion and Santana as comps--DH/1B types in their 30s who got 3/$60 million. But JDM has been better than those guys and is younger than Encarnacion. I think of Goldschmidt as a lot better, but it's reasonably close. He seems like he'd age better and can at least play somewhere in the field. Maybe JDM would get something between 3/60 and 5/130, like 4/90?

Going strictly by his WAR values, I'd bet his projection would be something like 3.8/3.3/2.7/2.1/1.4 over the next five years. That's 13.4 WAR, and at ~$8 million per WAR, that's $107 million for 5 years, or with the QO penalty 5/92.

In his recent article, Alex Speier pointed out something interesting about how JDM's contract impacts the luxury tax. He earned $25 million each of the first two years, but the AAV is $22 million. So if JDM opts out now, the extra $6 million he earned in those first 2 years gets tacked on to the 2020 payroll. Boston would like to avoid that, of course. What would be interesting is if JDM's value in the market is something like 3/$72 million. So it's more than he's currently making but once the QO is considered, teams would offer him less than his current contract. In this case, he likely stays, and then if the Red Sox trade him--a player worth 3/$72 on a 3/$62 deal--they get the full salary relief AND whatever they get in a trade return.

All that said, if I'm JDM, I have to think this is my best chance to opt out. I've established that 2017 was no fluke and I'm never going to be younger than I am right now.

If JDM opts out, what teams are likely to sign him for the sort of money he's looking for? It seems unlikely a National League team woudl sign him, given his noted defensive issues in the outfield.

In the American League, The Yankees (Miscellaneous), Angels (Ohtani), Tigers (Cabrera), Twins (Cruz), Astros (Alvarez), A's (Davis) and Rangers (Choo) have the DH position already filled. The Jays, Royals, Orioles, and Mariners are already rebuilding, and are unlikely to be signing a guy to a multi-year deal to DH. The Rays are too cheap, and the Indians are also not exactly breaking open the checkbook right now. What's left is the White Sox, and the Red Sox.

I can't argue with the analysis of what he should theoretically be worth, but it doesn't seem likely he'll get that theoretical contract without more possible bidders.

All that said, if I'm JDM, I have to think this is my best chance to opt out. I've established that 2017 was no fluke and I'm never going to be younger than I am right now.

His bb-ref oWAR from age 26 onward have been 4.5, 4.6, 3.9, 4.7, 6.9, 4.0. His 2017 looks normal but came with fewer PA, which means it was actually pretty outstanding. He had two consecutive years of excellent production, sandwiched by 4 years of great production.

If we're calling him a full-time DH now then we really need to recast this to be offensive WAR without the benefit of the "better" positional adjustment he got for having played in the field. Those numbers work out roughly to 3.9, 3.8, 3.3, 4.1, 6.9, 4.0. Worst case he's solidly a 4-WAR DH throughout his peak.

Every team in 2019 is aware of the age curve. Every team knows that Father Time remains undefeated. We've seen in the last few years a reticence to sign older free agents to longer-term deals, partly because they know peaks end, and partly because sometimes when they end it's neither gradual nor graceful. JDM's age is somewhat short of when teams start getting skeptical about longevity of performance. You might be right that there is no better time than now. I'm looking at it in somewhat of an optimistic way for him, that the offers he gets this year will still be there next year. I could be soooo wrong.

I can't argue with the analysis of what he should theoretically be worth, but it doesn't seem likely he'll get that theoretical contract without more possible bidders.

Don't count out Cleveland on that front. They have been willing to open the checkbook before, and Minnesota showed that the division isn't just Cleveland's by default. Upgrading DH might not be their chosen way to keep up, but maybe JDM is enough of a known quantity that they'd see him as worth the financial risk.

Even if the bidding ends up being just the White Sox and the Indians, that might be enough for Scott Boras to get at least close to max value for Martinez.

The only reason I can see that makes sense for JD to opt out is if he's unhappy in Boston.

From every other angle, he will come out worse on the other end if he opts out.

Vi, I think you're right. I was thinking that he somehow pushed himself into a new echelon in 2017 and maintained it in 2018-19, but really, it was more like a higher level in 17 and 18 (putting aside playing time), then back to expected level in 2019.

I guess he did establish himself as able to stay healthy, so that's something.

We should know his play by tomorrow.

OPT OUT DECISION ANNOUNCED:

Rusney Castillo will not opt out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/boston.cbslocal.com/2019/11/03/boston-red-sox-rusney-castillo-contract/amp/

I guess he did establish himself as able to stay healthy, so that's something.

All the more reason why teams will look at him as a DH. His most significant injuries in 2016-17 were from fielding.

What's J.D.'s deadline?

A bunch of players had 3 days after the World Series to decide. I thought MLB had standardized the opt out dates.

What's J.D.'s deadline?

A bunch of players had 3 days after the World Series to decide. I thought MLB had standardized the opt out dates.

I've read that he had 5 days after the World Series; so tonight.

I think he'll choose to stay with the Red Sox.

An interesting thing I hadn't thought of until a recent article is that if he prefers to stay in Boston and that's the main reason he would NOT opt out, he probably needs to remember that they could decide to trade him to save the salary anyway. (The odds are probably against next year being a better time for him to opt out.)

@4 you can count out the Tribe. They won't spend that money, and they already have a DH in Franmil Reyes, who should never be allowed to play defense

Staying.

Imagining there's not much of a trade market, though you could, perhaps, squint and see NL teams with 2/3 of a defensive wizard OF defense maybe take on the contract to have him play LF. (Philly is a place where, I think, you could argue a 3/$62 contract to play LF and DH in AL games would not be particularly onerous, given the cap room they have and the need for bats... Of course, Philly doesn't *have* 2/3 of a defensive wizard OF...)

I don't recall how the numbers work on this, but if the Red Sox eat, say, 25-50% of the salary to move him to an NL team willing to take the chance, only the money they kick in would count towards the cap, right? So--in theory--they don't have to move the WHOLE contract to save $; they could decide to move 75% or 50% of it to save money... There are, I'm certain, price points where JD on a 3-year deal (and maybe only a 1-year deal) becomes attractive to NL teams.

Per Jon Heyman, JDM is following my advice and has not opted out.

OK, Heyman said JDM is not opting out. He didn't say JDM is following my advice. But, I mean, we all can read between the lines here.

Good news that JD is staying. Of course the thought process now is "that means they'll trade Mookie." I don't think it's that certain. I could be wrong but this ownership group is aware of the public perception of things and they know from a PR standpoint AND from a baseball standpoint what a disaster that would be.

I think it's more likely that Mookie gets dealt with JDM's contract on the books but I'm not convinced it's a fait accompli.

I don't recall how the numbers work on this, but if the Red Sox eat, say, 25-50% of the salary to move him to an NL team

JDM is worth his contract to an AL team. Especially if they aren't losing any draft picks. No way the Red Sox are going to kick in salary to dump him.

I'm a little surprised. It will be interesting to see what the Sox do with him.

I agree with Jose that this decision has very little to do with what happens with Mookie.

JDM is worth his contract to an AL team. Especially if they aren't losing any draft picks. No way the Red Sox are going to kick in salary to dump him.

This. He's on a fair contract, albeit likely a 1-year contract. The team getting him also gets the benefit of a compensation draft pick when JDM opts out and rejects the inevitable QO.

The only way I see Boston kicking in salary is if they get back someone who's on an even better deal.

Price: $32m
JDM: $23.75m
Sale: $30m
Xander: $20m
Eovaldi: $17m
Pedroia:$13m
Vazquez: $4m

per Cots that's about $140m to those seven guys, six of whom who'll take up roster spots. Raises are due to Mookie, JBJ, E-Rod, Barnes, Workman, and Andy Nintendo. Porcello's innings will also need to be replaced. Are Sam Travis, Michael Chavis, and/or Bobby Dalbec the answer at 1B and 2B, and will they be good enough for a playoff-caliber team?

Two predictions: Mookie will get dealt to the Braves (they have young pieces) and JBJ and the $11m or so he'll get in arb will be cut because the Red Sox won't be able to find a taker in a trade.

In any case, 2020 Red Sox will probably look very different.

JDM is worth his contract to an AL team. Especially if they aren't losing any draft picks. No way the Red Sox are going to kick in salary to dump him.

What AL team has a need for a $20 million a year DH? And if there really were other teams who thought he was worth his contract and wanted a $20 million a year DH, wouldn't he have opted out?

This. He's on a fair contract, albeit likely a 1-year contract. The team getting him also gets the benefit of a compensation draft pick when JDM opts out and rejects the inevitable QO.

He wasn't willing to opt out this year because the market looked unfavorable for 31 year old DHs. Is there any reason to believe next year's market will look more favorably on 32 year old DHs?

He can be worth his contract in a theoretical sense while still also not being tradeable without kicking cash in, and unable to get another contact for what he's theoretically worth on the FA market.

Don't forget, EE is a free agent. That was going to hurt JDM's market if he opted out.

And if there really were other teams who thought he was worth his contract and wanted a $20 million a year DH, wouldn't he have opted out?

If he opted out, the team would have to think he was worth $20 mil/year + the compensation pick(s).

I'm not the Red Sox GM, but if getting under some tax threshold is an ownership mandate, and plan A was JDM opting out and plan B is trading Mookie, they should have hired me. Attaching money and/or prospects to make as many of Price, Sale, or Eovaldi go away is preferable to either of those options.

Question: Pedroia's done. He's got 2/$25 remaining per B-R. Is there any reason the Sox couldn't tack on years to make it 3/$27 or 4/$28 to lower the AAV for tax purposes?

Question: Pedroia's done. He's got 2/$25 remaining per B-R. Is there any reason the Sox couldn't tack on years to make it 3/$27 or 4/$28 to lower the AAV for tax purposes?

I would suspect the league would refuse to approve the contract, much like the NHL has rejected contracts which would have extended the player well past the point where he was likely to be playing at very low salaries for the obvious purpose of evading the salary cap.

Question: Pedroia's done. He's got 2/$25 remaining per B-R. Is there any reason the Sox couldn't tack on years to make it 3/$27 or 4/$28 to lower the AAV for tax purposes?

Because the league will scotch any attempt to blatantly manipulate the cap. Same reason the Sox can't sign Betts to a $300M/30 year deal.

What AL team has a need for a $20 million a year DH? And if there really were other teams who thought he was worth his contract and wanted a $20 million a year DH, wouldn't he have opted out?

The first question is really "What AL team wants to pay $25m for one year of a player who will likely provide at least $30m of value, as a DH?" Here's the 2019 offensive WAR, per BB-Ref, for all players who played at least 50% of their games at DH and finished with positive oWAR:

oWAR team player

+4.3 KCR Soler
+4.2 MIN Cruz
+3.9 BOS Martinez
+3.6 HOU Alvarez
+2.4 LAA Ohtani
+2.0 TEX Pence
+1.6 SEA Vogelbach
+1.0 BAL Nunez
+0.9 TEX Solak

That's it. Seven of the other 14 AL teams are represented. One of them - the Rangers - has two players on this list, and a third (Choo) who played more than them at DH and had positive oWAR but played the majority of games in the OF. Let's assume that despite Pence's free agency the Rangers aren't interested. The AL teams not on the list:

NYY - Not a trade partner
TBR - Not a trade partner
DET - Miguel Cabrera (-0.1) @ $30 million
TOR - rotates players through; Tellez (+0.1 oWAR in 2019) potentially the starter
CHW - dropped Alonzo (-0.9), then rotated players through.
CLE - rotated players through; Franmil Reyes (+0.1) was used exclusively there after acquired in the Puig trade
OAK - Khris Davis (-0.5) @ $17 million

It's easy to think of reasons why a team wouldn't pursue a JDM trade. It involves spending money, and teams generally don't want to do that. But there are 4 teams for whom JDM would be a vast upgrade on 2019 performance, at fair cost, and would result in Boston paying less. (If they were to do a JDM/Davis swap with Oakland - basically JDM @ $25m for a year, plus a 2021 compensation pick, for Davis @ $34m for 2 years - I'd expect they'd then flip Davis to another team. Davis is at least a plausible OF more so than Martinez is, and thus has a wider market. Deals with the other 3 teams might be more straightforward.)

As for your second question... His ability to get a long-term deal next year shouldn't be materially different than his ability to get one this year, all other things being equal. If he gets injured in 2020, sure, he might have issues getting a contract. But then he wouldn't opt out and would get paid $40m over 2 years to reset his market. The only scenario in which he opts out is if he's healthy and productive, and in that case the long-term deal will still be there next offseason. Then it comes down to whether he wants a guaranteed $25m this year, or to see if he can upgrade this year. Guarantees are nice. Likewise, any team that would have pursued him as a FA would have paid a compensation pick in addition to salary, whereas a trade for his current contract is another matter - and probably better, for the team.

Happy to be wrong about this, as he is very good and, at worst, properly paid. Obviously I share everyone's concerns about Betts, but I'll believe this ownership group will make a historically catastrophic mistake like that when it actually happens.

It won't happen, but a trade with the A's would make sense for both teams if the Sox want to clear salary: Davis for JDM + Eovaldi.

The A's are pretty well set everywhere for 2020, and only Davis is making real money (second highest paid is Soria at $8.5m, though Semien might get more in arb). So they can easily afford JDM for one year (assuming he opts out after the season). Dumping Eovaldi would enable the Sox to keep JBJ or otherwise pay for a real third OF.

I am with jmurph in #28. I think the worst case is the Sox go into next year with Mookie and make a run and try to re-sign him. If they don’t, oh well, if they do obviously that’s ideal. If they trade him I think that’s nonsense. You assemble a team to try to win and a year with Mookie gives you the best chance to do that. It’s highly unlikely they will be able to get back anything remotely worth Mookie so ride him out and go all in to try and sign him next year.

There's plenty of reason for NL teams to be interested in Martinez. He projects to put up about 3.0 to 3.2 WAR as an OF, not even adjusting the fact that JD, like most hitters, hits better when he plays the field.

Martinez is a good player on a fair deal. He's better than Santana when Santana got 3/60, he's similar to what Encarnacion was when he got something similar. His exact landing spot may not be clear right now, but he's got value.

Here's a thought: Move JD Martinez to the LF and move Benintendi. Martinez the past 3 years has an OPS of around 1.050-1.100 when playing the field.

For Mookie, if they could come to agree on a contract with him, they could actually save payroll this year by doing a deal like Bogaerts's or Sale's. Just pay him $22 million this year and the rest in a new contract that starts in 2021.

There's plenty of reason for NL teams to be interested in Martinez. He projects to put up about 3.0 to 3.2 WAR as an OF, not even adjusting the fact that JD, like most hitters, hits better when he plays the field.

Martinez has been, at best, an occasional outfielder, who hit well enough for an AL team to risk playing him in the field in NL parks. That doesn’t mean a NL team would put an aging outfielder with significant negative defensive WAR out there full time, while paying big bucks for the privilege. The last time Martinez played 100 games in the outfield (2016), he put up -2.7 dWAR in only 118 games. He’s a DH, albeit a good one.

Yeah, I'm not sure he hits better as an OF than as a DH. He is a DH.

The last time Martinez played 100 games in the outfield (2016), he put up -2.7 dWAR in only 118 games.

Incorrect. He played 113 games in the OF in 2017 (only 4 games at DH) with a -1.0 dWAR. His offense was good enough to make him a +4.2 WAR player that year.

Yeah, I'm not sure he hits better as an OF than as a DH. He is a DH.

Yeah, I'm not sure why you think that. Most players hit better when they play the field. So does Martinez.

I actually think you could live with JDM's defense but he seems to have been pigeonholed at DH.

JBJ is gone. They'll suffer through JDM's defense in LF whilst at home, slotting Bennie to CF. For away games they'll keep Bennie in LF, Mookie goes to CF and they'll find a cheap, decent fielding 4th OF type to man RF. JDM will DH on the road.
That's how I see it playing out.

This team has a lot of money tied up in SP. If those guys don't perform or are oft injured, it matters little who they throw out there behind the guy on the bump, the team will struggle.

Here's a thought: Move JD Martinez to the LF and move Benintendi.

The problem with this is it doesn't really do you any good. You lose the better player (I'll take Benny going forward over JBJ even if WAR is pretty comparable right now) and you don't save any money. Moving JBJ makes more sense if you are doing it to save money. If you aren't making the move to save money then there is no reason to deal either of them.

You could trade them both.

What would that do? I mean if you can trade them and get better in the process, great. But I think that’s unlikely.

You're not going to get better and get under the cap. You're going to try to minimize how much worse you get.

Yeah, I'm not sure why you think that. Most players hit better when they play the field. So does Martinez.

You're right, he has hit better as an OF.

So here's what I say: He is a bad fielder who will only get worse out there. His value, going forward, is as a DH. If he plays the OF, he will no doubt be in the bottom 3 of all OF's, defensively. He runs poorly. He misjudges balls often. He will be Gary Sanchez-bad in the field. At his advancing age, he will be better suited as a DH than as an OF.

You're not going to get better and get under the cap. You're going to try to minimize how much worse you get.

I understand that. But that’s why I said why trade Benintendi? If you’re goal is to get under the luxury tax limit dealing him is pretty pointless.

I will say that outside of LT reasons if the Sox want to get creative this winter Benintendi might be a guy to build a deal around. I don’t think he’s ever going to be great and while he’s good and likable I think he’s a guy that could bring something solid in return. On pure baseball merit he’s probably the asset I’d most be willing to see the Sox move,

But he's cheap. He's the type of player they need to keep.

You trade Benintendi because he's got some trade value and makes $5 million. Shedding that gets you closer to your goal.

Of course, it depends on someone else valuing him as much or more than you.

Right, and the problem is if there is a Juan Soto or an Acuna in the wings, they aren't trading him for Benintendi, they'll want Mookie.

You're not getting Acuna or Soto for Mookie.

You could get an Austin Riley tho.

You're not getting Acuna or Soto for Mookie.

If you're right, and you probably are, that's more reason not to trade Benintendi. The odds are the return won't be equal.

They're in a bind if their goal is to reduce payroll. Short of trading Sale and Price (while not eating a lot of their salary), they can only field a worse team, in the relative short term, by getting cheaper players.

If you start with the assumption they won't get a fair return, then yeah, they shouldn't trade Benintendi.

Stop me if you've heard these ideas from me before:

--A Martinez trade could easily get them under the cap. Even if people don't want him at 3/62 (which I suspect they would), the Sox could include cash and still cut $15-18M off their 2020 payroll. That might also allow them to get back a better return.

--Dealing JBJ (or nontendering him if necessary) may just be the best use of resources, given that they do not have an infinite payroll. He's projected to be worth ~2 WAR for $11M. I'm guessing you could get a 0.5 to 1 WAR player for $3M or so (Joyce? Maybin? Dyson? Hamilton?). The other money can be used to fill holes at 1B/2B/SP.

--Would JBJ accept something like 2/$14M?

--I get that people don't like the idea of trading Mookie, particularly us Red Sox fans. But the over-the-top 'how can this be' rending of garments by the general baseball community is a bit much. The Red Sox have tried repeatedly to lock him up long term, even before the deals with Sale, Bogaerts, and Eovaldi. They haven't been able to. If they trade him, it will not be just to get under the luxury tax limit. It will be because they fear losing him for nothing. This has happened plenty to teams with payrolls big and small. Let's wait and see a) if they trade him and b) what they get before deciding this is the downfall of baseball.

How many teams are in need of a DH and willing to pay big bucks to fill that role? Martinez can put 3 teams on his no-trade list, and that is likely sufficient to put the kibosh on any trade possibilities, at least without compensating Martinez for waiving his no-trade protection.

If they trade him, it will not be just to get under the luxury tax limit. It will be because they fear losing him for nothing. This has happened plenty to teams with payrolls big and small.

So what? If you assume he will be paid market price on his next contract, there's no surplus value. You're not really losing anything.

And you're not getting "nothing" by keeping him, you're getting another season of a 6+ win player, in a year when the Red Sox should be strong playoff contenders.

So what? If you assume he will be paid market price on his next contract, there's no surplus value. You're not really losing anything.

And you're not getting "nothing" by keeping him, you're getting another season of a 6+ win player, in a year when the Red Sox should be strong playoff contenders.

precisely. They will have gotten back far more than they invested in him if he walks after 2020. If they keep him and he doesn't re-sign, they will have to replace his production in 2021 and will have money to do so. If they trade him now, they have to replace his production in 2020 (and 2021) because they won't get a 6-win player in return, or 3 2-win players for that matter. This is not the time for the red sox to be "looking to the future". They need to hope the starting pitching bounces back in 2020 and keep a strong core of position players to round out a potentially excellent team.

Teams often trade players that they cannot sign in hopes of getting a package of younger, cost-controlled players. The acquiring team may actually value Betts more if they think they can sign him or if they are in line to receive higher compensation when he walks after 2020.

Teams often trade players that they cannot sign in hopes of getting a package of younger, cost-controlled players.

But that's not the case here, the Red Sox certainly can sign him, they may just choose not to.

In addition, those teams are usually not competitors, while the Red Sox could easily win their division next year. Finally, the players traded are rarely making anything close to Betts. At $30M for one year, he's not going to be attractive to many teams.

At $30M for one year, he's not going to be attractive to many teams.

The Red Sox would be crazy fools to trade him but nobody else will be interested in him. Got it.

The Red Sox would be crazy fools to trade him but nobody else will be interested in him. Got it.

Only contending teams with large payrolls will be interested. He has surplus value, but $30M is a big pill to swallow.

The Red Sox are exactly the kind of team (a contender where Betts value could very much make the difference between 1st and 2nd place) where Betts has the most value. No one else should value him more than Boston does.

Who do you think is a good trade partner? The Yankees are, but no fricking way the Sox trade him to NY. Tampa and Cleveland won't pay him. Houston could use him, but doesn't need him. Oakland won't pay. Cubs maybe. Phillies maybe. ATL, StL, and Mil won't pay. LAD don't need him; they won the division by 20 and have too many OF already.

Between the Cubs and Phillies you could probably get something done. The Red Sox can probably get a B+/A- prospect for Betts.

In doing so they subtract 6-7 wins from a win-now team. How does that make any sense?

The Mets are set at every position but CF, and have a lefty heavy lineup. Make it happen Brodie!

Mets are a good match. We could take that underachiever Syndergaard off your hands.

And they have a lot of 1b/corner OF talent which would help the Sox fill holes.