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1. DarrenMy fantasy is that we trade Lowell + a good prospect for Ensberg (was he tendered?) + Lidge. Please?
SOOOOO GOOD
I say we trade for Ensberg (for whatever screwed up reasons that Houston wants to be rid of), and use Lowell/Hinske to find pitching options.
Would Houston want Hinske?
I'm definitely psyched about next year.
According to philly's payroll thread on SoSH, the Sox are already 7m over the tax threshold. I don't know if that's right or not, or what kind of limit Henry has set, but it seems possible there isn't any room left in the budget.
Trading Lowell would obviously help there, but I, too, would be happy to see the Sox go into camp as is. The bullpen's a huge question mark, but I don't see that changing, and there's at least some potential with what they have.
As for Drew's salary, seems the pundits think add Drew to Matsuzaka before this idiot market and it's a wash. Factor in the market expansion and the Sox may have picked up the best positional bat and best starting pitcher for genuine market rates or better. Very nice.
Besides, I believe Theo may be starting to understand you largely need to develop your pen from within. The success of Papelbon will hopefully spur on more of the kids in the pen.
To get value, you need to give value. Not all GMs wear sleep-masks when they trade.
Just trade with the ones that do
I don't mind things happening, just don't give me a month of anticipation before they actually happen.
There's this myth out there that the Red Sox are trying to set their payroll to come in just at/under the payroll threshold. It's entirely possible that they're taking the long view, seeing that so much payroll is coming off the rolls next year, and making the calculated decision to exceed the cap this year. They've hopefully set their long-term rotation and lineup core with these moves -- surely one year of paying some luxury tax isn't such a big concern?
In general though, these sorts of "Look at all the payroll coming off next year - we can sign Andruw Jones, and Carlos Zambrano and still have $20M left over" calculations are generally misguided because of issues like these, and other payroll developments.
Baseball Digest Daily Blog
The BoSox need to trade Manny for Otsuka.
If the Rangers can't sign Zito, how about a trade of Manny/Youk/Hansack for Teixeira/Otsuka? My guess is that most Red Sox fans would be against this, but I think it would be a good case of players having more value to the the team trading for them than to their current team.
The Red Sox would upgrade at 1B and replace Manny with some combination of Wily Mo and Hinske (is there any explanation for Wily Mo's huge reverse platoon split last year? the previous 2 years he was much better against lefties than righties). There would be some loss of offense, but the lineup would still be well above league-average and the defense would be slightly better than before. Plus, they fill the closer role and save $10 mil to put them below the luxury tax and in a better position to trade for an impact player during the season. The Manny sideshow would be gone, which I suppose could be viewed as a positive or a negative depending on your perspective.
The Rangers would put Manny at DH, where they had Nevin, Wilkerson, Botts, etc. in 2006. This would much more than offset the downgrade from Teixeira to Youkilis. A pitcher like Hansack who doesn't seem to figure into Boston's plans should sweeten the deal for the Rangers. If they have enough starting pitcher prospects, hopefully a couple will pan out, and Otsuka was rendered somewhat expendable with the signing of Gagne. The extra salary that they take on will be more palatable because they intended to spend that money on free agents anyway. Also, this would reunite Manny and Lofton, which may not have an effect on their performance but could make the Rangers a fun team to follow and bring them more attention/attendance.
Yes, that's true -- let's look at these guys for 2008:
Schilling - Buchholz/Bowden are likely too far off, hope would be that Lester can fill one spot
Lowell - Youkilis moving to 3rd, they look for a impact FA 1B bat or hope that Lars Anderson develops
Clement - dead money
Hinske - not a critical role
Tavarez/Tavarez - hopefully to be replaced by mL relief (Cox, Masterson, etc.)
You're not going to get $40 million of relief, certainly, but you could argue there are replacements readily available such that the Red Sox could still target a FA pitcher and first baseman and come in below their 2007 figure. Standard caveats: we don't know whether Lester, Hansen, Cox, Masterson, Anderson, etc. will develop to fill these roles, or what kind of injuries we'll see in the interim. But my guess here is that they could fill those roles with less money, at least enough to potentially get back under the 2008 LT threshold of $155M.
Joel Pineiro
I would do Manny, Lowell, and Hansack for Teixeira and Otsuka
Is Hansack any good?
-Timlin debuted around the time Seinfeld came on the air.
-Hansen's got command/control issues, and while that's not always a big problem for a short reliever, his K rates aren't very high either. Call me pessimistic about him.
-Tavarez is, well, exactly what he's always been, a league-average relief flake.
-Delcarmen I like. His indicators are all good to excellent, he was just hit-unlucky.
-Okajima's somewhat a question mark at this time, though I'm open minded about him.
-Dinardo's the same as ever.
-Pap's in rotation, but he's their best RP.
-Wake's relieved before, but do I want a knuckleballer in with a runner at third? (his WPs aren't exoribtant)
-Any chance Lester's going to be ready for the year and would be a decent reliever for one year?
-How about if Matt Clement---oh forget it....
Yuck.
If we get Lester back, I'd rather see him start and push Papelbon back into the pen.
We've NEVER seen Lester in the pen. We KNOW Papelbon is lightout in the pen.
That's nowhere near enough to get Teixeira. Not even close. Maybe if the Sox pay all of Manny's salary and throw in Crisp or Ellsbury.
This ia baseball-man talk.
I liked Brendan Donnelly before the cheating pine tar thing. Also the rising ERA doesn't help.
Seriously, the last thing we should do is mess with what Jon Lester is used to doing. He needs to get some game innings, and he needs to go back to his previous routine. He's coming off chemo, he's struggling to make the big leagues, and you want him to convert him to a DIFFERENT ROLE?
SAnd my mistake, it's Seibel.
Donnelly's great, but's he's 35. I can see this being another Cla Meredith thing.
They ain't gonna close ballgames with him, are they?
Hey he only made ~$1 mil last year.
Seibel looks like a guy who's bounced around, but absolutely PWN3D the minors last year. Donelly looks like he's falling apart. WHooppee
The Meredith thing I'm STILL incensed about. He had GREAT minor league numbers, I had big hopes for him (funky delivery an all), and then Francona throws him out for a high-lev situation, gets pwn3de, and then we never see him again. Then he gets traded for Dougie's Goign Deep. And becomes light out.
I'd be REALLY happy if we got that out of him.
Yeah, or not. This is a pretty reasonable trade for both sides it seems.
I Heart Red Sox back-end starters.
Pretty different from the Meredith situation IMHO.
Yeah, maybe three years ago.
Well, yeah, Donnelly's numbers have been declining for a while now. Sadly enough his numbers from 2006 would have likely been the 2nd best number for Boston's pen.
Seibel may turn into a good pitcher for the Angels, or he may never get over the hump. He's got all of 3.7 IP in the majors and is no kid. I wish him well, and it's not a bad trade for the Angels since they seemed to be done with Donnelly anyway, but Seibel's no great loss for the Red Sox either.
He's still not that good. And he's a whiner. And considering he'd be no better than the Angels 5th best option out of the pen this year, maybe 6th, it's not really much of a loss.
In August, September, and October, Donnelly pitched 22.2 IP and allowed 6 ER.
He had 3 bad outings where he gave up 12 runs in 1.1 innings, but seemed to be solid otherwise.
Crushed RHB last year, but has had quite a bit of variance against RHB and LHB throughout his career.
And that's fair, because the Angels' pen was much better than Boston's in 2006. Your 6th best guy is probably 3rd or 4th in our pen.
He's not much of a loss for the Angels, just like Seibel's not much of a loss for Boston.
Who are the first two or three?
You probably would have been better off putting the $1.5MM or so that the Sox will have to pay him toward someone more useful.
But this is splitting hairs. Donnelly had more value to the Sox than he did to the Angels, because the Angels had better options, particularly after their signing of Speier.
You've made your disdain for him quite clear. ;)
Like who? $1.5M buys about 1/2 of a marginal win in this market.
It's not that I have disdain for him. I just don't think he's that good. I think he's just as likely to cost you guys a lot of games next year as is he to help you win any. But they'll be forgettable, because he'll come in during a game in which you're trailing by a couple of runs, and give up about four or five more, basically ruining any hopes for a comeback. Since it's a game you would have figured to lose anyway, it won't sting, but those add up over a season.
It's arguable that Donnelly is #1 out of the pen right now. I don't think he's significantly better than Timlin or Delcarmen, but I'm not sure he's any worse. That is, based on my look at his stats and highly limited knowledge of Donnelly, of course.
This wouldn't be as bad of a move if we had an otherwise set pen and needed a solid middle reliever. But what we're lacking now is a closer and we're no closer to filling that hole, IMHO. I sure hope this is a scouting move based on some greatness they see in Donnelly. I would rather have gotten Gregg.
Was there any indication that Gregg was available for Seibel?
"He's a really promising and REALLY young guy! He also has a world series ring from the Red Sox so he must have good intangibles. Losing the Donnellymeister really hurts. I still can't believe they let Ersty go... Anyways I'm really excited to see what kind of (Eric Chavez hits HR off Siebel which is ignored by Hudler who keeps blabbing) stuff he has. Stoneman must have had a good reason to trade such an amazing reliever as Donnelly (Piazza takes a curve to the hip) so this will be a guy we need to keep an eye on for the next few years.
So, closer by committee this year? Or just a lousy closer?
And I would do it again.
me too. just sayin'.
I hope that's right this time around, not only for the obvious reasons, but also because I'm really hoping Drew shows up all the obnoxious "he shows no passion, therefore he is not good" ranters on EEI and elsewhere. I like Drew largely because of the people who don't like him.
On a more heartwarming subject: Matsuzaka... most exciting Red Sox acquisition since Pedro? Or only since Manny?
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