It's a shame that the division isn't closer, because the Rays' schedule ends with series against the Astros and the Yankees.

EDIT: Wait, that's a reason *why* the division isn't closer, right? The schedule disparity is probably worth about half the gap in the standings.

Amazing to think that going 6-3 (entirely reasonably) gets them to 94 wins . . . what a season it's been. Exciting and fun throughout. Now a bit of nail biting, but we're in pole position.

I am encouraged that - under assumptions like "Toronto sweeps this weekend" - these are very promising projections.

2 - Yeah, I was kind of looking at it and suddenly realized that the Sox don't need a lot to go right to get in. It's not a gimme by any stretch (they've been swept by the Orioles this year so #### happens) but even playing mediocre baseball the next 10 days probably does the job.

The head-to-head for Yanks/Jays is huge, as your scenarios show. One of those teams, who already trail by 2 and 2.5 games, will lose at least 2 of those 3 game.

I see FanGraphs now has their playoff chances at 96.3%, undoubtedly reflecting some of the reasoning here.

The Blue Jays will not sweep the Twins. Worst case for Monday morning is now;

NYY 89-67
BOS 88-68
TOR 88-68

Sox host any tiebreaker game.

97.5% now. Worst case for Thursday morning is to be one game behind someone.

That's amazing when you think about it. That's a huge loss by Toronto.

So can anyone explain why dropped 3rd strikes aren't reviewable but tag plays are? If a play results in a possible out, shouldn't it be reviewable?

It simply boggles the mind Joe West is still an umpire.

Worst case for Thursday morning is to be one game behind someone.

I'm trying to tease out what a best case scenario would be. 1st Best Case is a Red Sox sweep and a Yankees sweep, as that would clinch a WC slot. 2nd Best case I think it would be a Red Sox sweep and a Toronto sweep, as this would mean the Red Sox are 2 up on the Yankees with 3 to play with the NYY having 3 games against TB (who might be motivated to knock them out of the playoffs completely, at least on Friday/Saturday).

At this point I might prefer a WC game against Toronto over the Yankees. But who knows.

So can anyone explain why dropped 3rd strikes aren't reviewable but tag plays are? If a play results in a possible out, shouldn't it be reviewable?

I hate replay for so very many reasons. No reason that can't be called. In fairness to Joe at live speed I thought it was a drop.

I think you're right about the best case scenarios. I don't have a preference (other than my general dislike for the Yankees) about who we play in the Wild Card game.

Best case I think it would be a Red Sox sweep and a Toronto sweep,

Incorrect. Best case is the Red Sox sweep and the Yankees announce they are leaving the American League to play in Japan, effective immediately.

It simply boggles the mind Joe West is still an umpire.

I'm probably the only one who feels this way, but no matter how badly Joe umpires, I can never get completely angry at him after 2004.

I'm probably the only one who feels this way, but no matter how badly Joe umpires, I can never get completely angry at him after 2004.

You are not alone.

It simply boggles the mind Joe West is still an umpire.

If you've got complaints about home plate umpiring, get in line. That call on Judge was about the 15th or 20th missed ball / strike call West made last night. That one was only more notable for the fact that it immediately and obviously affected the game's outcome.

Regardless of what happens tonight the Sox still control their own destiny. I can't get over the fact that this team is going to enter the final series of the season still in a playoff spot. That's nuts.

Here is my personal rooting ranking of possible wildcard game situations, from best to worst:

Jays at Sox
Mariners at Sox
Yankees at Sox
Sox at Jays
Sox at Mariners
Sox at Yankees
Jays v Mariners
Jays v Yankees
Mariners v Yankees

I almost always have a fondness for teams on postseason droughts. Setting aside all the Red Sox preferences, any scenario that has the Mariners in the playoffs I prefer to a scenario that doesn't. I would love to see a 1977 expansion grudge match.

Since 1990 the 4 teams you mention have won 13 AL pennants, out of 30. And one of them has never won.

Scenario update:

RED SOX ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!