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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Thursday, May 19, 2022

One Step Forward

For the first time in 2022 the Boston Red Sox are starting to look like the team we have expected to see.  They have gone 5-3 over the last week and change and they have done so while playing five of those games against last season’s World Series combatants.  After what can best be called a nightmare start the Sox are pulling it together.  The offense has gotten hot scoring 46 runs in the 8 games and save for one memorable inning Tuesday night the pitching has been very good as well.  The call up of Franchy Cordero seems to be paying dividends.  Cordero is not hitting a bunch but he is taking some walks and just by not being an automatic out has proven to be an upgrade over what the Sox had been getting there.  Speaking of which Bobby Dalbec has actually been hitting a bit though for whatever reason there is just no power happening.  I’m not sure what that’s all about.  It’s probably worth noting that his numbers at this stage last year (.194/.248/.327 with 2 homers) don’t look that different from what he has done so far this year (.161/.248/.247 with 1 homer) but of course circumstances are different.  It is a heck of a lot easier to be patient with a guy when you are 22-15 rather than 15-22.  I’d love dearly to see Dalbec succeed but I’m not sure I buy it.

The biggest change offensively though is unquestionably Trevor Story who seems to have found his stroke.  It is something that we have chronicled; his first couple of months as a member of the Boston Red Sox were challenging.  Even by 2022 standards he had a shortened spring with just 13 PA where he had never had a full spring training with fewer than 48 PA previously.  Add in the change of team, the change of position and the always enjoyable both ends no waiting experience of food poisoning and the slow start was if not inevitable, certainly in the cards.  He has begun to show the kind of player he can and should be expected to be in all facets of the game.  One thing I didn’t appreciate about him prior to getting him is the kind of weapon he can be on the bases.  He is an accomplished base stealer and to my eye looks like a pretty smart base runner too.

The flip side of all this expected positivity is the expected negativity. Even Matthew Lesko thinks there are a lot of question marks in the bullpen and that is just not something that can continue.  SBPT has laid out a couple of paths to address some of those concerns but with the starting pitching doing well it may not be necessary to get too aggressive (no more bullpen games though, OK Alex?).  I still like Robles and Diekman and Strahm has been legitimately good.  I suspect John Schreiber is a bit of an illusion and once teams get a look at him the glow will fade but until it does keep rolling him out there.  Austin Davis is kind of the opposite of Diekman, he’s been good but I don’t really trust him though he gets points for getting Juan Soto out in arguably the biggest at bat of the year last year (OK, it was a 400 foot fly out but hey, an out is an out).  With all that said I can’t help but think there is a place for Josh Wincowski and/or Connor Seabold is the semi-near future.

The other issue is the lineup depth.  The non-studs are being aggressively crummy.  Baseball Savant has Alex Verdugo as third in baseball with the biggest negative xWOBA vs. WOBA so expecting him to start hitting into some luck is not unreasonable.  Similarly Kiké Hernandez is in a similar situation.  He is neither as far off expectations nor would he be as good if performance met expectations but he should also be expected to get going.  With that said, the Sox have an issue at the top of the lineup.  Story is starting to hit and I kind of want to just see him stay where he is rather than bouncing him around but I really would rather not see Kiké or Doogs up there until results start arriving.  It would look a bit odd and may not work but if the Sox want to try and shake things up just move Hernandez down to 6th and move everyone else up?

Devers
Martinez
Bogaerts
Verdugo
Story
etc…

I mean Rafael Devers - Leadoff hitter wouldn’t look any odder than Dustin Pedroia - Cleanup hitter would it?  I’d be a bit wary of changing the stuff that’s working offensively but I think if we get to Memorial Day and Hernandez and Verdugo aren’t showing any signs of snapping out of the slump it is an idea to be considered.

The other issue is the two offensive black holes that are likely to remain black holes.  Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki are the Sox catching tandem and barring a deal that is likely to remain the case for 2022.  The Sox don’t have any internal options yet as both Connor Wong and Roberto Hernandez have sub-.500 OPS in Worcester.  Vazquez should be expected to improve a bit but his OPS+ of 65 isn’t that far out of his norm.  Jackie Bradley is the one to be considered.  Honestly JBJ isn’t really doing anything that unexpected.  God knows we have seen the slumps over the years but this is now a slump dating back to last year.  With that said he’s on pace for a 1 WAR season thanks to his defense so he’s not killing the Sox.  However in his case (and in Kiké‘s) the Sox have options with Jarren Duran and potentially Franchy if either Dalbec gets it together or Casas comes up though the latter of those is probably sill a couple months from being feasible.  I think a scenario where Duran comes up and plays 4-5 times a week resting Kiké against tough righties and giving JBJ the occasional spell could work.  The Sox also have Rob Refsnyder cooling his heels in Pawtucket and spring training hero Ryan Fitzgerald who may have a job to do before all is said and done.

This week certainly doesn’t establish the Sox as back in the mix.  One week of baseball doesn’t do that and the hole they have dug is significant.  But for the first time they are playing the way they should be expected too.

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 19, 2022 at 08:31 AM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 19, 2022 at 11:01 AM (#6077465)
Re the relievers: I meant to ask that I'll be perfectly content to see less of Brasier in key spots. He was great in 2008, not so much since. And Sawamura scares me. For a guy with such seemingly outrageous stuff he gets hit hard a lot.

Also just as an FYI I may be posting a bit less over the coming months. Not shutting down or anything, just got a few things going on right now. I'll try to post stuff to keep conversations alive and make sure there is a place for Sox chat though.
   2. villageidiom Posted: May 19, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6077469)
Also just as an FYI I may be posting a bit less over the coming months. Not shutting down or anything, just got a few things going on right now. I'll try to post stuff to keep conversations alive and make sure there is a place for Sox chat though.
Life is busy here, too, but I'll try to pick up the slack.
   3. John DiFool2 Posted: May 19, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6077519)
They simply need to cut bait on JBJ and call up Duran. It ain't a "slump", that is his current level of ability.

I'll keep having fun with this: Devers is one double behind Earl Webb's pace. It may be that the deadened ball may provide the perfect storm for him to chase the record.
   4. villageidiom Posted: May 19, 2022 at 08:53 PM (#6077555)
The biggest change offensively though is unquestionably Trevor Story who seems to have found his stroke.
This was a well-timed observation.
   5. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 19, 2022 at 10:37 PM (#6077583)
Um…Christian Vazquez looks like he’s finding his stroke too! (That may be a bridge too far but can’t hurt to try).
   6. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 19, 2022 at 10:45 PM (#6077585)
The biggest change offensively though is unquestionably Trevor Story who seems to have found his stroke.


Please feel free to continue with more prophecies regarding the rest of the line-up.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: May 20, 2022 at 10:04 AM (#6077619)
The huge game brought Story up to .230/.317/.413 w/ 5-5 on steals. Just a week ago, he was down at .206/.281/.304 w/ 1 steal.
   8. pikepredator Posted: May 20, 2022 at 10:05 AM (#6077621)
that was FUN. It has to feel so good to break out like that in front of the home crowd. Fenway faithful can be harsh when players don't perform but they also shower love on players who do . . . THAT.

JD Martinez is also scorching. At the beginning of the game Joe and Will were talking about JD's 18-game hitting streak being snapped the night before despite hitting a couple rockets, and JD delivered.
   9. Darren Posted: May 20, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6077643)
See, it's like I've been saying all along. Story will raise his OPS by 117 points and completely turn his season around in a single game on May 19. I don't know why no one listened to me.


JD is having a very nice season. It appears the rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. :)
   10. pikepredator Posted: May 20, 2022 at 03:03 PM (#6077662)
yeah JD has always been a "professional hitter", as the saying goes. I'm not surprised he's been able to adapt to aging.
   11. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 21, 2022 at 10:28 AM (#6077798)
Another nice win Friday night for Boston, and obviously watching Story hit bombs right now is a lot of fun.

Wacha was excellent through four innings after being out for almost three weeks, and then imploded in the 5th. I still believe the team will be more successful in the long run if these Hill and Wacha starts were "piggybacked" by somebody like Houck a few times a week, largely to minimize innings pitched by the lesser end of the bullpen...but what Cora is doing with Wacha is working thus far:

Wacha has started six games, and the team is 5-1 in those starts. He's pitched between 4.1 and 6 innings those starts, and has pitched generally very well.

In those six starts, Cora has used a total of 25 relievers (and average of over four pitchers post-Wacha per start), and I believe only once has a pitcher gone more than an inning (Brasier went 1.1 in an appearance). The team has only allowed five runs in the 23.1 innings pitched in relief during Wacha's six starts thus far, and only three runs in his last five starts (19.2 relief innings pitched). It makes me hold my breath a little bit every time, because Cora is using a lot of guys with mixed performance for an inning here, an inning there...but it is working.

If the team can keep crawling back to .500, Story seems to be figuring things out, Pivetta has suddenly become very reliable and able to go deep into games, the bullpen seems to be beginning to sort itself out, and AAA now has several pitchers who may be able to help this year if needed (Winckowski, Seabold, and Bello), maybe Casas is up a little later this year (anything he'd provide would be an upgrade at 1B)...maybe the season is not shot yet!
   12. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 21, 2022 at 02:01 PM (#6077815)
Pivetta has a ways go before he can be counted on regularly. He has never been very good. He's been a mediocre pitcher, and expecting him to be anything more isn't rational. His last 3 starts have been very good, especially the CG against a good team. I don't get excited about him beating Texas.

In July, they play 17 games in a row against TB, NYY, and Tor. If they split those games (say, 8 wins), they may get to 85 wins. I think that stretch will tell us what kind of team they really are.
   13. Darren Posted: May 21, 2022 at 04:44 PM (#6077831)
As I try to remind myself with guys like Pivetta (and Wacha, Hill, Whitlock...), you don't expect these guys to consistently give you good starts. They're not aces. You hope they're going to give you pretty good starts most of the time and not completely implode in their other starts. Maybe they throw a gem now and then. I feel very good about all of those guys' ability to do that.
   14. Darren Posted: May 21, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6077832)
On Whitlock, have other teams figured something out about him?
   15. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 21, 2022 at 04:56 PM (#6077835)
I feel very good about all of those guys' ability to do that.


So far they have done their job.

Whitlock may just be having an off day/week. Hard to tell.
   16. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 21, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6077836)
I like that they're letting him throw more pitches, down 4-0.
   17. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 22, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6078014)
That was pleasant..
   18. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 22, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6078017)
Indeed. A back and forth affair. Looked like a blown opportunity, but no. They did what they had to do this weekend...beat a team that hasn't been playing well.
   19. villageidiom Posted: May 23, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6078118)
That 5-3 stretch Jose mentioned at the top of the thread is now a 9-3 stretch, after sweeping Seattle in 4 games at home. They now go on a 3-game road trip to face the White Sox, who swept them at Fenway just before that 5-3 stretch. Boston lost those games by scores of 4-2, 3-1 (in extras), and 3-2. Since then their offense has scored more than 4 runs in 9 out of 12 games.

Tomorrow they have Pivetta, who went 6 innings with 8 Ks and 0 walks against the White Sox at the start of his recent run of dominance. He again faces Dylan Cease, who has used the K to get 28 of his last 44 outs, but those 44 outs have taken 3 starts to get. He has also given up 24 H+BB in that span. Pivetta has given up 11 H+BB, across 66 outs, in his last 3 starts. Wednesday they have Hill vs. Giolito. Thursday it's Wacha vs. TBD. A reasonable expectation is that Boston takes 1 of these 3 games. That would put them at 10-5 in that span, just before 7 games at home against Baltimore and Cincinnati, ahead of the west coast road trip. If they can go 5-2 in those games that would put them hitting the road with a 25-26 record. Can they take 2 of 3 from Chicago? Can they do better than 5-2 against those teams? Sure. Either way, they're probably reaching the end of May in the vicinity of a .500 record.
   20. villageidiom Posted: May 24, 2022 at 09:01 PM (#6078346)
Two innings into the first game in this series against the White Sox and Boston has already scored more than they did in the entire prior series against the White Sox.
   21. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 25, 2022 at 06:08 AM (#6078383)
The ten game west coast trip coming up soon and the 17 game stretch in July mentioned above will define the Red Sox 2022 season.
   22. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 25, 2022 at 11:53 PM (#6078486)
And one step back.
Decent game by the hurlers, unfortunately bats went quiet and couldn't convert opportunities when they came along.
7 BB and 7 singles couldn't produce more than 1 run.
   23. villageidiom Posted: May 26, 2022 at 02:32 PM (#6078538)
And one step back.
Yes, but... I mean, scoring 1 run against Giolito, who is effectively 2021 Eovaldi in terms of quality, isn't exactly a step back. A Giolito/Hill matchup on the road should end in Chicago's favor.

Wacha vs. Kuechel would be a compelling matchup of strengths, if this were 2015. In 2022 I think this favors Boston, assuming Wacha's resurgence is real and not just a pre-midnight pumpkin.
   24. pikepredator Posted: May 26, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6078560)
7 BB and 7 singles couldn't produce more than 1 run.


Better than 1 run with 2bb and 2 singles. Frustrating, but also encouraging that the bats keep rolling.

This is a fun stretch of baseball.
   25. villageidiom Posted: May 26, 2022 at 05:46 PM (#6078564)
I was in Chicago for a few hours on Wednesday morning, and got to see part of the White Sox rebroadcast of the Tuesday game. I think I saw the 2nd or 3rd inning. The guys in the booth were trying some colossal milkshake concoction with a churro sticking out of it, and I swear the camera stayed on them in the booth for 4-5 minutes without showing any game action at all. Not, like, showing them for 20 seconds, cutting back to show the pitch, then back to the booth, then back to the game for the next pitch, and so on. Nope. Just two guys in a room decked with TV monitors and White Sox branding, for 5 minutes, then showing a ball in play, then back in the booth for a few more minutes. Should we drink from the straw? Or should we bite off the top of the churro and drink through that? It wasn't even particularly compelling banter.

I have no problem with silliness like that, especially in a blowout. I actually like it! But, like, show the damn game.
   26. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 26, 2022 at 06:28 PM (#6078567)
Yes, but... I mean, scoring 1 run against Giolito, who is effectively 2021 Eovaldi in terms of quality, isn't exactly a step back.

Better than 1 run with 2bb and 2 singles. Frustrating, but also encouraging that the bats keep rolling.


Agree. It was frustrating as one well placed XBH and you're basically talking a 3-3 game going into the later innings and now that the Red Sox have figured out how to win in extras, they'd be all good!

Now that they're close to .500, you just want them to get there in the next few/several games and then just hopefully work towards 86-88 wins(would love more, but trying to be realistic)
   27. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 26, 2022 at 11:30 PM (#6078621)
10 for 22 w/RISP tonight. I deem that satisfactory.

Oops, and now 10 for 23 but they get two runs when the pitcher misses Abreu by about 5 feet.
   28. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 26, 2022 at 11:51 PM (#6078626)
Barnes comes in to give the White Sox a chance by walking 4 in a row.
   29. Jay Seaver Posted: May 27, 2022 at 02:28 AM (#6078634)
25 - I've been in Chicago for the week (rollover vacation time that needs to be used + a brother who lives here ain't a bad equation), and that doesn't surprise me. For as slick and modern as New Comiskey/Guaranteed Rate is, they'll occasionally lose track of the pitch count or put the wrong graphics up. And, as with the Nationals last fall, they just do not do replays unless it's the White Sox doing something good. That throw over the first baseman's head to allow Jackie to reach led to the jumbotron showing a black screen with the White Sox logo for the next couple minutes.

The spirit of Hawk Harrelson lives on, I guess, but the stinginess with replays just seems petty and goofy to me - sure, the sightlines are pretty good there, but I'm used to getting a look at what happened no matter what.

Anyway, it was a pretty fun week - even the game where they didn't score 16 runs, I had great seats.
   30. pikepredator Posted: May 27, 2022 at 05:25 PM (#6078717)
Story has been "the story" but JD has been even hotter.

This is so much fun. Hopefully they can feast upon the Orioles!
   31. Darren Posted: May 28, 2022 at 05:20 PM (#6078876)
Can we all take a moment to wish our friend Karlmagnus a hearty congratulations? Dan Duquette was elected to the Red Sox Hall of Fame today! Karl, I hope you tuned in to the game because, not only did the Red Sox win, Duq was in the booth for a bit talking about his work with the team!
   32. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 28, 2022 at 05:22 PM (#6078878)
Duke absolutely deserves the honor. Karl may overrate him a smidge but he did a very good job while he was here.
   33. karlmagnus Posted: May 28, 2022 at 08:21 PM (#6078899)
Curse it, missed Duke's induction. Trouble is, I'm in Poughkeepsie, NY, so not in a natural NESN area. Anyway, thank you. I also would point out that my doom-saying on the current management a few weeks ago was a classic reverse curse; they've been playing their Sox off ever since! And they've also inducted Manny, so I'm a happy camper right now!
   34. pikepredator Posted: May 29, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6078933)
I also would point out that my doom-saying on the current management a few weeks ago was a classic reverse curse


Keep it up!!
   35. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 29, 2022 at 03:07 PM (#6078951)
Arroyo Devers Franchy and Dalbec have hit HRs. Who do you sit? They all can't play every day. I love Arroyo. And now Kiké, for #5. Aye yi yi. They're making it interesting, but I wish they could have held on in game 1. 4-1 is way better than 3-2 (if they win tomorrow).
   36. Darren Posted: May 30, 2022 at 01:19 PM (#6079066)
Apparently Franchy is a beloved dude so it's nice to see him doing well. It's also nice because him playing well helps the team win.
   37. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 30, 2022 at 01:27 PM (#6079067)
Why is today's game a night game? On a holiday. I guess it's better for them to play after the sun sets and it's in the 70's, but I'm bored RIGHT NOW and want to watch a game.
   38. Textbook Editor Posted: May 30, 2022 at 11:08 PM (#6079136)
So I'm coming around to the notion that Barnes is either hurt and hiding it or a completely broken pitcher/sunk cost. The $ is gone; to me the only thing that matters now is how/if you try to fix him without being able to option him to AA or AAA.
   39. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 31, 2022 at 12:10 AM (#6079140)
Why is today's game a night game? On a holiday. I guess it's better for them to play after the sun sets and it's in the 70's, but I'm bored RIGHT NOW and want to watch a game.


Glad the Red Sox could fill your need today! Yikes.
   40. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: May 31, 2022 at 09:16 AM (#6079166)
Because of the expanded playoff format, the Red Sox can hover around .500 and be in a playoff "conversation" most of the year. But I think that the standard of the organization and fan base is much higher than that; consequently, Chaim Bloom probably has a long leash to rip things up for long-term sustained excellence, in exchange for some short-term pain.

The team has a stretch of 14 games in a row early in July where they play either Tampa or the Yankees (7 against each). If they haven't figured out if they can compete in 2022 before that stretch, that will determine it, with a few weeks before the trade deadline.

The team has a lot of minor-league talent that was at lower levels of the system over the last few years, and is now beginning to pile up towards the top of the system: The AAA rotation now has five starters who are legitimate major-league prospects (not necessarily all as starters, but with major-league upside): Bello, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, and Crawford. They also have at least one short-inning reliever with a pretty high ceiling in that role, Frank German.

For now, it seems like the only one of those five starters with a really high ceiling - like a #3-or-better rotation guy in the bigs - is Bello, and they are probably going to be careful with him in 2022. The other guys are useful major leaguers, with ceilings of back of the rotation guys, or quality bullpen arms. That's not a slight - those are very valuable assets in an organization.

For me, we are quickly getting to a point where I'd rather see what a few of these prospects can do than watch Wacha and Hill going out there every five days. If either of those veterans are pitching well enough to have value in a trade to a true contender, great - make the deal later in June. And if they are struggling or hurt, then replace them with some of the AAA starters with promise.

I think the team needs to use 2022 to determine which, if any, of these high-minors assets are part of the long-term plan. I also think they need to determine if there is a reasonable chance of resigning Bogaerts. If not, they should trade him towards the deadline unless the team has a heck of a next six weeks. I'm not suggesting these decisions need to be made on June 1st - but the next six weeks are the season, and after that, I hope Bloom moved decisively in one direction or another with this roster.

   41. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: May 31, 2022 at 10:25 AM (#6079177)
The team has a stretch of 14 games in a row early in July where they play either Tampa or the Yankees (7 against each).


17 games, when you include Toronto. Mentioned in this very thread!

I also think they need to determine if there is a reasonable chance of resigning Bogaerts.


Not much chance of that, they already lowballed him and pissed him off. I could see the Yankees paying him. The Phillies. The Angels. Texas. The Red Sox shouldn't give him more than a 4 or 5 year deal, and he won't sign a 4 or 5 year deal. This is his last big contract.
   42. John DiFool2 Posted: June 01, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6079368)
Raffy back to a 65 doubles pace. Has played every game, note.
   43. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 01, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6079372)
I could see the Yankees paying him.


The Yankees infield is set in '23, but it is the Yankees, so maybe they jettison one of Donaldson or Rizzo by eating their contracts, but I sort of doubt they are seriously in the running to sign Bogaerts.
   44. villageidiom Posted: June 01, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6079375)
Tomorrow they have Pivetta, who went 6 innings with 8 Ks and 0 walks against the White Sox at the start of his recent run of dominance. He again faces Dylan Cease, who has used the K to get 28 of his last 44 outs, but those 44 outs have taken 3 starts to get. He has also given up 24 H+BB in that span. Pivetta has given up 11 H+BB, across 66 outs, in his last 3 starts. Wednesday they have Hill vs. Giolito. Thursday it's Wacha vs. TBD. A reasonable expectation is that Boston takes 1 of these 3 games. That would put them at 10-5 in that span, just before 7 games at home against Baltimore and Cincinnati, ahead of the west coast road trip. If they can go 5-2 in those games that would put them hitting the road with a 25-26 record. Can they take 2 of 3 from Chicago? Can they do better than 5-2 against those teams? Sure.
Welp, they took 2 of 3 from Chicago. But they can't go 5-2 against Baltimore and Cincinnati because they've already gone 2-4 against them with one more to play.
Either way, they're probably reaching the end of May in the vicinity of a .500 record.
Alas.
   45. John DiFool2 Posted: June 01, 2022 at 11:34 PM (#6079465)
After another double tonight, pace is 66.7.
   46. Nasty Nate Posted: June 01, 2022 at 11:48 PM (#6079466)
He's still behind Matt Olson, who has 23 doubles in 50 games (yes the same guy who once had 2 doubles in 60 games).

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