One Step Forward

For the first time in 2022 the Boston Red Sox are starting to look like the team we have expected to see.  They have gone 5-3 over the last week and change and they have done so while playing five of those games against last season’s World Series combatants.  After what can best be called a nightmare start the Sox are pulling it together.  The offense has gotten hot scoring 46 runs in the 8 games and save for one memorable inning Tuesday night the pitching has been very good as well.  The call up of Franchy Cordero seems to be paying dividends.  Cordero is not hitting a bunch but he is taking some walks and just by not being an automatic out has proven to be an upgrade over what the Sox had been getting there.  Speaking of which Bobby Dalbec has actually been hitting a bit though for whatever reason there is just no power happening.  I’m not sure what that’s all about.  It’s probably worth noting that his numbers at this stage last year (.194/.248/.327 with 2 homers) don’t look that different from what he has done so far this year (.161/.248/.247 with 1 homer) but of course circumstances are different.  It is a heck of a lot easier to be patient with a guy when you are 22-15 rather than 15-22.  I’d love dearly to see Dalbec succeed but I’m not sure I buy it.

The biggest change offensively though is unquestionably Trevor Story who seems to have found his stroke.  It is something that we have chronicled; his first couple of months as a member of the Boston Red Sox were challenging.  Even by 2022 standards he had a shortened spring with just 13 PA where he had never had a full spring training with fewer than 48 PA previously.  Add in the change of team, the change of position and the always enjoyable both ends no waiting experience of food poisoning and the slow start was if not inevitable, certainly in the cards.  He has begun to show the kind of player he can and should be expected to be in all facets of the game.  One thing I didn’t appreciate about him prior to getting him is the kind of weapon he can be on the bases.  He is an accomplished base stealer and to my eye looks like a pretty smart base runner too.

The flip side of all this expected positivity is the expected negativity. Even Matthew Lesko thinks there are a lot of question marks in the bullpen and that is just not something that can continue.  SBPT has laid out a couple of paths to address some of those concerns but with the starting pitching doing well it may not be necessary to get too aggressive (no more bullpen games though, OK Alex?).  I still like Robles and Diekman and Strahm has been legitimately good.  I suspect John Schreiber is a bit of an illusion and once teams get a look at him the glow will fade but until it does keep rolling him out there.  Austin Davis is kind of the opposite of Diekman, he’s been good but I don’t really trust him though he gets points for getting Juan Soto out in arguably the biggest at bat of the year last year (OK, it was a 400 foot fly out but hey, an out is an out).  With all that said I can’t help but think there is a place for Josh Wincowski and/or Connor Seabold is the semi-near future.

The other issue is the lineup depth.  The non-studs are being aggressively crummy.  Baseball Savant has Alex Verdugo as third in baseball with the biggest negative xWOBA vs. WOBA so expecting him to start hitting into some luck is not unreasonable.  Similarly Kiké Hernandez is in a similar situation.  He is neither as far off expectations nor would he be as good if performance met expectations but he should also be expected to get going.  With that said, the Sox have an issue at the top of the lineup.  Story is starting to hit and I kind of want to just see him stay where he is rather than bouncing him around but I really would rather not see Kiké or Doogs up there until results start arriving.  It would look a bit odd and may not work but if the Sox want to try and shake things up just move Hernandez down to 6th and move everyone else up?

Devers
Martinez
Bogaerts
Verdugo
Story
etc…

I mean Rafael Devers - Leadoff hitter wouldn’t look any odder than Dustin Pedroia - Cleanup hitter would it?  I’d be a bit wary of changing the stuff that’s working offensively but I think if we get to Memorial Day and Hernandez and Verdugo aren’t showing any signs of snapping out of the slump it is an idea to be considered.

The other issue is the two offensive black holes that are likely to remain black holes.  Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki are the Sox catching tandem and barring a deal that is likely to remain the case for 2022.  The Sox don’t have any internal options yet as both Connor Wong and Roberto Hernandez have sub-.500 OPS in Worcester.  Vazquez should be expected to improve a bit but his OPS+ of 65 isn’t that far out of his norm.  Jackie Bradley is the one to be considered.  Honestly JBJ isn’t really doing anything that unexpected.  God knows we have seen the slumps over the years but this is now a slump dating back to last year.  With that said he’s on pace for a 1 WAR season thanks to his defense so he’s not killing the Sox.  However in his case (and in Kiké‘s) the Sox have options with Jarren Duran and potentially Franchy if either Dalbec gets it together or Casas comes up though the latter of those is probably sill a couple months from being feasible.  I think a scenario where Duran comes up and plays 4-5 times a week resting Kiké against tough righties and giving JBJ the occasional spell could work.  The Sox also have Rob Refsnyder cooling his heels in Pawtucket and spring training hero Ryan Fitzgerald who may have a job to do before all is said and done.

This week certainly doesn’t establish the Sox as back in the mix.  One week of baseball doesn’t do that and the hole they have dug is significant.  But for the first time they are playing the way they should be expected too.