Rather have Zito than Wells, by a long shot, for the same money. ERA+ of 129 vs OPS+ of 104. No contest.

"In broad strokes, what made it work for so long in NY was that they freed up money for opportunistic in-season grabs when teams decided to turn away from expensive players. BOS hasn't ever done as much of that, which means they shop the limited selection in winter vs a wider group year-round."

Well, in fairness, the Sox and Yanks are not on the same financial playing field. Simply taking on all of Abreu and Lidle's salaries, for instance, doesn't appear to have been a possibility for the Sox. Now, whether they should be spending more or not is a whole other question, but I think it's safe to assume that next year's payroll will once again be in the area of 125-135m.

On the matter of next year's roster and how many pitchers it should have: if they have both Cora and Hinske on the bench, they'll have 1B/2B/SS/3B/LF/RF all covered by two guys. So they can probably go with 12 pitchers and still have an ok bench.

"Rather have Zito than Wells, by a long shot, for the same money. ERA+ of 129 vs OPS+ of 104. No contest."

b-ref says Wells is at 108 OPS+ for his career, and that's not including this season. Also, he turned 27 exactly two weeks ago. And, from what I've seen, he's very good at defense.

I agree that the Sox should sign Zito, and I think MCoA is right that Wells isn't even a FA this year. But Wells is a very good player.

Since Matsuzaka won't be available on the open market, I assume his contract will be less than one might expect. As far as I understand hte "posting" process, the bidding war won't be over the money paid to Matsuzaka, but the money paid to his Japanese team for the rights to negotiate a contract. As Matsuzaka's free agency is severely limited, I guess that he'll be paid less than his comparables.

The Sox would need to budget a big outlay for the posting fee, but I believe that money would not be counted toward the salary cap (?), so the Sox might well be happy to do it.

I realize it's unlikely that the Sox get him, but I think it's unlikely for reasons other than the contract that Matsuzaka would command, once posted.

Ichiro, for instance, got only ~$5M per year in his first seasons, because he came to the US before he reached free agency.

Per mlb4u, Vernon Wells is under contract for $5.6M in 2006 to the Blue Jays.

2007, I mean. Ugh.

yeah from what i've read we probably won't get matsuzaka and that the yankees and the mariners are the front runners and seibu won't post him. whatever. IF he is available, the red sox should TRY (very hard) to get him. OK?

My observation in the WBC is that his fastball sits 94-96 and he throws a plus splitter and a good change. Now, I'm sure he was throwing a bit harder than usual for the big occasion, but Matsuzaka has serious MLB stuff. Given that, I assume that his completely excellent NPB stats will translate quite well.

I don't know if he'll be posted and I don't expect the Red Sox will get him, but I'm pretty damn confident that he's the best pitcher who might be available for cash this offseason.

A mental-math weighted projection for Wells in 2007 gives me .291/.345/.515 in Toronto

That's pretty good.

My observation in the WBC is that his fastball sits 94-96 and he throws a plus splitter and a good change. Now, I'm sure he was throwing a bit harder than usual for the big occasion, but Matsuzaka has serious MLB stuff.

I think your guess is right as the videos I've seen of him pitching for Seibu has him sitting at 92-93 and getting it up to the mid 90's when he needs to. Off the top of my head, I'd only take Clemens, Schillings, and Contreras splitters over his. Maybe Escobars' as well, but I'm not sure. I think he's going to be amazing.

Maybe the Yanks will get Zito AND Matsuzaka

What about Miguel Batista? Yeah, I think he would cost a bit more than he is worth, and he probably can not get to the magical seven inning mark on a regular basis. However, he is useful out of the pen (could close a game or two), but, more importantly, he can effectively spot start here and there. Every team suffers from injuries and ineffectiveness, and Batista seems like a good way to protect yourself from this (well, at least on a limited basis).

"Maybe the Yanks will get Zito AND Matsuzaka"

The thing is, the last few postseasons don't really suggest this. They didn't get Randy Johnson AND Carlos Beltran, for instance. And there are reports that their profit margins are narrowing. And they probably won't feel desperate, since they'll have handily won the division, whatever happens in the playoffs. Plus, with Abreu on board, their payroll's higher than ever, right?

And then they have, let's see, Sheffield coming off the books... anyone else? RJ's still got a year doesn't he? Mussina has an option, right?

I'd be surprised if the Yankees got both those guys. I would not be surprised, on the other hand, if the Yanks got Matsuzaka and Zito went to Southern California. Which means... Schmidt?

Whether or not they would sign Matsuzaka and Zito depends on who they have under contract already. Would anyone with a big name and ego be pushed into long relief? I don't think cost has much to do with it.

Trying to guess at the Yanks potential payroll is difficult. I think you get two types of answers based on what information you use, and there's a huge gap between those two.

If you go by past payroll and past signing behavior (like the Beltran and Johnson example), you could reasonably come to a guess of 200M (stays about the same), 210M (slight bump for inflation), or, say 230M (more linear growth if we consider years farther back).

If you, instead, try to ask "What can the Yankees really afford and still be profitable?" you get something much different. Who knows, really, but I'd have to think it's at least 300M. No, of course that wouldn't be "profitable" by whatever bookkeeping they're handing to the league office (gate receipts minus player salaries = "oh crap! we're in the red!").

I would guess that the latter is more accurate and that the Yankees' decisions on expensive FAs are determined by weighing two opposing factors: (1) Sign enough to guarantee a playoff spot, regardless of cost, and (2) Try not to commit high salary veterans to the bench or long relief, as the players won't be happy and it will fuel claims that the Yanks are "buying up all the stars." The payroll then, is a byproduct of this philosophy; if they get themselves in a position where they need a ton of FAs to compete (say, Wang, Cano, and every other cost-effective player somehow dissappear) the payroll could go as high as neceassary given the limits of the 25 man roster. As long as those young guys are contributing, though, there is just no need to raise payroll over 200M to guarantee success, so why waste the money and potentially turn off some of their more guilt-ridden fanbase?

Josh Bard couldn't catch the knuckleball. It was really painful to watch. They needed someone to do that job - I don't think they lost their heads trying to get Mirabelli, I think they screwed up in assuming that just anyone could be the regular knuckleball catcher.

He had five starts to do it. Wait a little, won't you? For all the whining about how Bard couldn't catch the knuckleball, Wakefield was pretty much the same pitcher he's always been. It was a panic move, simple. Theo had no idea how long it takes a catcher to understand the knuckleball, because Mirabelli's been around since Duke was GM, and made a stupid panic move.

Dear Theo:

1. Leave Papelbon in the pen. He's been golden there, and you don't know that he can go 180 innings without breaking down the way he did this year. It's not worth finding out. You have one of the best relievers in baseball, but he only has two pitches and, now, an injury history. Don't take the chance, because there's no guarantee Paps will be an elite starter.

2. Get an impact arm and an impact bat. See wish lists above. The way Fenway is these days, the low-cost Billy Bean talent arbitrage model won't cut it here. Learn to think like the Yankees ("I can afford anything I want!") but be just that little bit smarter. Matsuzaka is a decent gamble, because the posting money won't cost you luxury tax even if they still have one next year, and because should he break down from overuse, hey, we'll still have Clement and Tavarez as fallbacks ;-).

3. If Matsuzaka gets snagged by someone else, inquire into Matisyahu's availability and pitch repertoir. I agree with several posters above that, as the designated Second Jew, he'd be more valuable then Kapler.

4. Since there are so few impact bats out there in free agency, Sheffield or Craig Wilson for right field make a lot of sense if it's for two years or less. Have someone study how many runs WMP would cost you in RF, vs Papi at 1B. Petition league for second DH slot.

5. Lugo would look nice at short for two years, but please don't sign him through his age-34 season.

6. Inquire about availability of Hanley Ramirez, Annibal Sanchez and Cla Meredith. (Kidding!) And, seriously, don't let the fact that those deals may not have worked out as hoped deter you from bold strokes in the future.

Respectfully,

Your friend Margo

Learn to think like the Yankees ("I can afford anything I want!") but be just that little bit smarter.

I always understood this to be their plan.

1. Leave Papelbon in the pen.

Margo, if Theo's medical people are telling him that Paps has to move, then I would think Theo's best bet is to start him.

Margo, if Theo's medical people are telling him that Paps has to move, then I would think Theo's best bet is to start him.

Move as in, move into the starting rotation? I've always understood that relief is less hazardous to a pitcher's arm than starting, all things being equal, i.e. assuming non-abusive usage patterns. Is there any indication that Paps talking like he's going to start next year is a medical decision?

I don't think I'd peg Schmidt as an "A" starter, vi. His K rate has declined quite a bit over the
last two years (tho is still above average), and he's heading into his mid 30's. The Yanks can
have Zito and his 1.5 K/W ratio; every time I think of him I think of Jose Lima and how Lima fell off
the cliff (managing to climb back up one more time before his final dive)-Zito's stats look very similar
c. 2000-2001 for Lima.

What about Miguel Batista?

Living in Canada, I've seen Batista pitch a lot, and his constant stalling and nibbling is so painful to watch I wouldn't even wish it on White Sox fans.

What about Miguel Batista?

Living in Canada, I've seen Batista pitch a lot, and his constant stalling and nibbling is so painful to watch I wouldn't even wish it on White Sox fans.

What about Miguel Batista?

Living in Canada, I've seen Batista pitch a lot, and his constant stalling and nibbling is so painful to watch I wouldn't even wish it on White Sox fans.

I really wonder what someone living in Canado thinks of Miggy Batista...

I don't see the Dbacks offering him arbitration, unless draft picks are still awarded for players offered arbitration who go elsewhere. Batista re-launched his career in AZ, again, and some team will give him a two-three years deal to be the honorary innings muncher. My gut says the Dbacks try to acquire a more solid starter (via trade, most likely) to go with Webb and Livan at the top of the rotation, and then let Vargas, Cruz, Edgar, Enrique, Nippert and maybe Micah Owings fight it out for the last 2 spots in the rotation...

I can tell you've seen Batista pitch a lot.

Watching Batista pitch is about as painful as watching Trachsel pitch. Both being free agents, the baseball gods should arrange that they sign with the Red Sox. Sox Therapy will be a fun place to visit...

Miguel Batista....

UGGHHH

the real difference maker would be if Henry stopped being Bud's stooge and decided to forget worrying about the luxery tax.

I know this is old-hat, but even so... how realistic is a three-way trade this offseason involving Manny Ramirez + some cash to the Angels and Miguel Tejada to the Red Sox? Angels would have to ship a good young player, maybe two, to Baltimore; Boston could add one or two decent ml pitchers.

If it's even possible, would it be worth it? Tejada's had another good offensive year, though it looks a bit more BA-dependent than usual (SLG is down even though BA's up). Some say his defense is horrendous, though Dial's stats suggest he's adequate.

I bring it up b/c roster construction for Boston really does seem more manageable if you can exchange Manny for Tejada and go after some FA corner OF. Plus, even if you send, say, 2 or 3m/yr to Anaheim you still save some money. Manny's had another great year, the length of his contract gets shorter all the time, and he'd be an amazing DH. Anaheim has some depth among young position players, and will certainly be going for it next year. Baltimore needs to add to a young core. I don't think the fans or media in Boston would whine too much about exchanging Manny for Tejada, not after this year (and not that it should matter, but it might to the FO).

I'd generally prefer that the Sox simply spend big on FA pitching this offseason, and not mess with things wholesale, but I can't shake the idea that the roster could really be improved this way. There seem to be too many DH's on this team.

I don't like the idea of extending the time horizon for gettting out from under a big contract. Manny is signed through 2008, Tejada through 2009. I feel that they've kept him this long and he's still among the top hitters in the game, so they should just hold onto him unless someone makes a great offer (that doesn't involve the Sox sending cash somewhere). And the less time Theo spends thinking about eleven-way trades the better.

I'd whine like hell about exchanging Manny for anybody. Ortiz, sure, if you can get a good deal. I just thought you should know this. Manny goes into the HOF wearing a Boston cap; all else is irrelevant.

I can see-- though I don't necessarily agree with-- the logic of trading Ortiz instead of Manny, but it's quite simply not going to happen. And you're unlikely to save money that way anyway. Tejada makes, what, 12m a year? That's enough less than Manny that even if the Sox kick in 2m/yr I think they still save money.

Manny is already a very bad defender and is probably getting worse. I love him, too, and will enjoy watching his induction ceremony, but I think the Sox might be able to improve by trading him. He should have considerable value to any AL team that's trying to win now and has an open DH slot.

PJ,

Maybe it's Dial's recently posted defensive numbers, or maybe it's just that time of year, but I too have started thinking about dealing Manny again. He's still quite overpaid because his defense is still quite awful. And here we sit, wondering why every pitcher the Sox get sucks and every one that they trade gets better. It's the defense, stupid (and Francona :).

The thought of Manny and Wily Mo at the corners of the OF really scares me. So I would at least try to make a deal with Anaheim. The plan would be to unload most of Manny's contract and get back some combination of Juan Rivera, Ervin Santana, and prospects. If you don't end up with Rivera, sign another good defensive OF like Jose Guillen (he's still good, right?). You use the extra money to get Matakwlecjazuka, Lugo, and 2 GOOD relievers.

(1) manny's defense isn't awful, it's a park illusion. It's below average, but not by much.

(2) The pitchers have only REALLY sucked since Manny has been out. Having a good offense takes pressure off them.

1) Park-adjusted numbers show him to be in a class by himself. He is awful, awful, awful, according to the numbers. Judging by my eyes, he's merely hideous.

2) None of the pitchers are actually pitching since Manny went out. It's a bunch of Hansacks, Gabbards, and Snyders out there.

Maybe the Dodgers would subsidize Drew in order to make room for their young OFs.

Someone made an excellent point over at SoSH (I think it was philly, actually) about how in 2003 Theo could make great cheap pick-ups because the Sox were set up the middle. So he grabbed Giambi, Millar and Ortiz. The first was a bust, the second was productive for a while, and the third became a superstar. Even Mueller and Bellhorn are toward the middle of James's defensive spectrum-- the FO didn't need to find a SS and a CF, unlike certain recent offseasons...

But more or less freely available talent is a lot harder to find at key defensive positions. Which seems to be one of the problems with this roster: a bunch of guys clogging up the wrong side of the spectrum: Manny, Ortiz, and Wily Mo, but none of them is a defensive asset. Even Coco should probably be in LF.

Which is why I think if you can convert one of those guys, via trade, into either a good-hitting up-the-middle guy (like Tejada) or a very good young pitcher (like Ervin Santana), you probably should. Manny is, offensively, the class of that group, and he also costs a lot. So you might be able to get considerable talent in return, and you'd save some money.

I'm repeating myself, I realize, but I hope my rationale is becoming slightly clarified each time.

And here we sit, wondering why every pitcher the Sox get sucks and every one that they trade gets better. It's the defense, stupid (and Francona :).

Yeah. If only they had signed 40' tall outfielders they wouldn't have given up so many HRs. Stupid human-sized outfield defense.

the FO didn't need to find a SS and a CF, unlike certain recent offseasons...

pokey and the oc were good shortstops.

The Sox have been trying to trade Manny for years. Why would we think that this offseason is the one where someone will decide to give us Tejada + $$? I don't like scenarios with lots of moving pieces - what if the Sox get stuck holding the bag on the new RF? How quickly do the Sox have to get this trade done so that they can be relatively confident they can spend the theoretical extra money? While I don't think most Sox fans would ultimately be against Tejada + $$, I think there's a good case to be made that the Red Sox should expend their offseason energy elsewhere. Such a trade has to be highyl unlikely, and even if it could be made, the Sox would need to use the money wisely enough after hte trade to make it worth it.

They need good pitching. They should spend their time trying to learn what good pitching looks like, how good teams train their pitchers, how they develop young pitchers, all these things. If they can fix the pitching staff and search out 9-step trades that will never happen, then, ok, go after the complex genius trades. But I fear that Manny rumors will start by November 4th and continue up until late December with no trade actually happening, at which time MAtsuzaka will have been posted to the Mariners and the market will already be moving fast on everyone else, and we'll see the same guys and the same strategies back at the pitching helm for '07.

I also think trying to trade Manny EVERY year is damn insulting to a great, great player and prevents him from establishing the psychic links to Boston that we'd all like a HOF player to have in the long term. In 2050, when Manny's throwing out the first ball of the World Series, it would be nice for Boston if he's wearing a Sox hat while doing so. It would be nice, too, if he's in spring training with the Sox every year from 2015 to 2040 showing rookie hitters how it's done. These things are important; the links with Ted and Yaz are a large part of the reason the Sox sell out every year, and Manny is the Ted/Yaz of this generation's Sox (Pedro/Nomar were both traded, and Nomar or indeed Ortiz are at most a borderline HOFer anyway.)

Manny's contract may have been an albatross back in '03 but it sure as hell isn't now (yes, he's overpaid, but only for 2 years; I think lots of teams would pay Manny 4/60 at this stage, possibly 5/75.)

Theo trying to trade Arod for Manny is just Theo being Theo. ;-)

I take issue with tying Manny too closely to Ted/Yaz. Sure they're all fine hitters, and none were ever known for fine media presence, but Ted and Carl were lifers in the organization. They never implied that they'd be comfortable moving on to another team (like, say, New York as has been implied of Manny. Not necessarily his fault, of course, but he's never given that Pesky vibe either.)

There's more to being the beloved figurehead of a nation than being a good player, or staying there forever. In fact, attributing the popularity of the Red Sox to individual players is a stretch. The franchise has a wonderful history that isn't summed up by those two guys at all. The rise of decent Sox teams and a general increase in baseball interest have morev to do with today's sellouts than Ted flipping the bird to the fans or throwing out a pitch from a golf cart.

I think km makes a good point.

I mean, I think that if the Red Sox can trade Manny for Tejada and cash, and they can get the cash shipped directly to Boston on flying ponies, I say, screw the team legacy and all those niceties and let's win.

But the real situation is that there's, what, at best a 10% chance of ponies? In that case, think of the benefits of trying to woo Manny and his loyalty for once instead of going for a trade yet again. Given that going for a trade is going to fail at a very high rate, and will cost valuable work-hours at the very start of the offseason, why piss Manny off again? I don't know what the size of the benefit is, and I can see the Manny-is-crazy case that the benefits would be small, but my point is that the expected value of working for a trade is also very small, and arguaby negative depending on how you understand the workload of the front office.

...and they can get the cash shipped directly to Boston on flying ponies...

Whatever day that happens, I'm staying indoors.

Earlier, we were talking about the plans for the pitching next year. A big one is, what do they do with Foulke? I read an article in the Metro where he said he was probably planning to exercise his $3.75M player option for next year. He's been real good recently - 9.1 IP, 10 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K in September. In the game I saw, Foulke still was working 86-87, but he was hitting the black with the fastball and pulling the string on the changeup. He needs extra hop on the fastball if he's going to be in the closing mix next year (I don't think the hit rate is entirely a fluke), but he might be a useful pitcher, and that's more than I expected a month ago.

So...what about the closer role next year, assuming Paps is in the rotation (or dl...)

There dont seem to be any 'Proven Closers' out there that would fit the bill and satisfy the 'EEI mob, unless you fancy the Ghost of Eddie Guardado. Someone like Coco Cordero would be perfect, but I imagine the Brewers are gonna keep him. Bobby Howry maybe? Not many good choices, guess I have to settle for "Not Mike Timlin"

Borowski?

Wait a minute...Ron Jackson was the problem??

And here we sit, wondering why every pitcher the Sox get sucks and every one that they trade gets better. It's the defense, stupid (and Francona :).

Yeah. If only they had signed 40' tall outfielders they wouldn't have given up so many HRs. Stupid human-sized outfield defense.

Kidding aside, the Sox still outhomered their opponents this year, despite Beckett's best attempts to make it otherwise. They even outhomered their opponents at home, despite Ortiz's not hitting nearly as many home runs in Fenway as he did on the road.