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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Sunday, April 02, 2023

Opening Weekend Opinions

So the first weekend of the season is in the books and I feel comfortable calling it “eventful.”  I don’t remember who said it after the Opener but the Orioles and Red Sox looked very much like the fourth and fifth placed teams they are widely predicted to be.  With that said some random thoughts;

Good:

- OK, the Boston Red Sox are going to score some runs.  The offense was both impressive and relentless.  Say what you want about Kiké Hernandez but he’s a hell of a hitter to have batting ninth.  At full health this line up looks like it will rake.  Masataka Yoshida has really done nothing but impress since he started raking for the Japanese WBC team. 

- Also the revamped bullpen looked strong. Put aside the mess on Thursday and take note of the guys who should be expected to pitch important innings.  Kenley Jansen, John Schreiber and Chris Martin all looked solid and Tanner Houck was very good until he seemed to run out of steam in his start.  For all the criticism Alex Cora seemed to be taking for going to Zack Kelly in the 4th the other day when your starters don’t go deep and it’s 7-1 in the 4th that’s who you go to.  If the Sox’ season depends on Zack Kelly and Kaleb Ort the season is sunk.

- The pitch timer (and take note MLB does NOT want it called a “clock” even though that’s what it is) is a resounding success in my mind.  The best line I read this weekend was “I hate everything about it except that it works.”  That game Thursday would have been four hours a year ago with Kluber and other pitchers struggling to throw strikes then kicking around the mound.  Getting it done in 3:10 was a huge win for the fans.  As was noted, it’s not giving us less baseball, it’s giving us less non-baseball.  I think there are some tweaks necessary but so far so good in my opinion.

- Raimel Tapia’s hair is glorious.

Bad:

- The starting pitching was kind of the great nightmare wasn’t it?  I think there is a case to be made that the guys who will be the Sox two best starters this year (Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello) are not there yet but still, the Sox need more.  Whatever we expect from Klubot and Chris Sale this year I think we can expect better than that.

- What in god’s name was with the Orioles running wild?  Sox pitchers seem completely buffaloed by how to hold runner.  I’m coaching 11 year olds playing on a diamond with leads for the first time who are less confused than the Sox hurlers.

- The one reliever of significance that had a tough outing was Richard Bleier.  At the moment he’s the lefty option out there and he did not do the job on Sunday.

Ugly:

- The pregame ceremony on Thursday was…off.  I don’t know how else to describe it.  If you’d been living in Pauly Shore’s biodome and just showed up on March 30th with no information from the outside world about the off-season you’d have known something was off with the carmine hose.  The crowd was reserved and when the second or third biggest ovation of the player introductions go to the manager it’s either a really good or really bad sign.

Beyond that the honorary stuff was off.  Michelle Brooks-Thompson is a marvelous, gifted singer. She has also done the anthem or GBA roughly a bajazillion times at Fenway.  “Who’s the least special singer we can get” seems to have been the question.  Then the first pitch; Devin McCourty, David Ortiz, Shawn Thornton, Dana Barros?  I mean, the whole “bring all the teams together is nice enough but there was nothing special there.  Dana Barros? I mean I loved the little dude and Shawn Thornton was a fan fave but those two guys don’t quite measure up to McCourty and Ortiz.  Even Papi, I mean he’s an automatic standing ovation but it’s not like Bill Buckner coming out in 2008 is it?

On top of that the desperate attempts to generate enthusiasm (e.g. “the player who will spend the next decade in Boston” while introducing Devers) felt well, desperate.  Look, we know where we are with this team.  Don’t sugarcoat it.

- Holy crap was it cold on Thursday.  I haven’t thawed out yet.

- It’s not really good, bad or ugly but I’ll put it here.  The elimination of the shift really was not noticeable.  Small sample sizes etc…but BABIP is up a bit, .317 through action on Saturday night vs. .290 a year ago.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 02, 2023 at 07:18 PM | 109 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 02, 2023 at 07:59 PM (#6122322)
ESPN just showed a graphic that through action today BABIP was up .310 to .272 at the same time last year.
   2. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 02, 2023 at 08:26 PM (#6122324)
It's way too early to declare this offense potent and/or the SP terrible. They won game 2 by a fluke dropped ball. I didn't see today's game, so no comment. The OF had 4 HRs yesterday, which was a nice surprise.

They play the next 6 games against bad teams, so, unless they get swept, there won't be any meaningful insights to be gathered. They play the Rays after that, and then the Angels, and end the month vs Cleveland. They will be tested, and we will see.

   3. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 02, 2023 at 08:33 PM (#6122325)
Red Sox team OPS is 959!

Of course their team ERA is 7.67.

I love those tiny sample sizes.
   4. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 02, 2023 at 09:13 PM (#6122333)
They play the next 6 games against bad teams, so, unless they get swept, there won't be any meaningful insights to be gathered. They play the Rays after that, and then the Angels, and end the month vs Cleveland. They will be tested, and we will see.


Hey mister negative, you just stop that right now!

Jokes aside, if this team is somewhere between average and reasonable, they should at least win 4 of the next 6 games, before being held to 4 total runs in the Rays series.
   5. pikepredator Posted: April 03, 2023 at 10:23 AM (#6122372)
At least we know they aren't gonna roll over and give up just because they're down by a half-dozen runs.

Also Chris Sale's post-game interview was awesome. Masterclass in personal accountability.

I'd put the pitchers' inability to hold runners in the first two games in the ugly category, but that's a distinction without a difference. Hopefully they can either figure out how to prevent that going forward, or how to take advantage of it when they're on offense.
   6. Darren Posted: April 03, 2023 at 10:34 AM (#6122376)
- What in god’s name was with the Orioles running wild? Sox pitchers seem completely buffaloed by how to hold runner. I’m coaching 11 year olds playing on a diamond with leads for the first time who are less confused than the Sox hurlers.


This is another case of the team not looking prepared at the beginning of the season. A couple others this season: Sale and Kluber did not look ready; they had a few pitch clock violations.
   7. Darren Posted: April 03, 2023 at 01:08 PM (#6122404)
I didn't see much of the games--how were they stealing so much?

I'm wondering if once the pitch clock gets under about 5, runners feel like the pitcher is so focused on getting the pitch off that they can run without fear of being picked off.
   8. Darren Posted: April 03, 2023 at 01:26 PM (#6122411)
Duval is on pace for 52.4 WAR, as well as 108 HR, 162 2B, and 81 3B. I imagine he'll cool down slightly but this appears to be what he is now.
   9. villageidiom Posted: April 03, 2023 at 01:50 PM (#6122418)
I didn't see much of the games--how were they stealing so much?

I'm wondering if once the pitch clock gets under about 5, runners feel like the pitcher is so focused on getting the pitch off that they can run without fear of being picked off.
Roughly that's what happened. They were timing their jumps based on the pitch clock. Most of their steals did not draw throws.
   10. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 04, 2023 at 08:37 AM (#6122553)
Is Pivetta hurt? Was there a reason given for Crawford's start instead of him?
   11. Darren Posted: April 04, 2023 at 02:14 PM (#6122586)
I was wondering about that too but it looks like he's pitching tonight. (I thought he might even have been a good choice for opening day.)
   12. Darren Posted: April 05, 2023 at 11:08 AM (#6122683)
So who wants to weigh in on the Yoshida HR ball CONTROVERSY??!!!

As I understand it, a family owns something that Yoshida and the Red Sox really want. The Red Sox have made offers to the family to try to obtain the item, and the family has refused. This has led some to suggest that the family is worse than Hitler.

   13. pikepredator Posted: April 05, 2023 at 12:26 PM (#6122688)
Yeah it seems like it's a bummer that Yoshida doesn't get his first HR ball back. But that's all it is. A bummer.

The expectation that the family *must* give it back smacks of the old Willy Wonka movie. "It's not for sale." "Name your price." "She can't have it." Or, maybe they're just shrewd negotiators.

I understand it's convention to give the ball back . . . but in the end, it's just a baseball.

FWIW I am not one to get attached to possessions in the first place so my opinion is just that, my opinion. I read a book and then I give it away since it's highly unlikely I will re-read every book I've ever read, and keeping them all doesn't feel right. I recognize this makes me a monster in the eyes of some.

Pathetic that people are attacking the family, but also completely unsurprising. Probably the same grown-ups who sit a green lights staring at their phones and complain about Kids these Days.

yes, I'm cranky.
   14. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 05, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6122694)
They should give the father 5 C notes and another baseball and tell him to switch it with the game ball when the kid isn't around. The kid won't know the difference.
   15. . . . . . . Posted: April 05, 2023 at 01:41 PM (#6122700)
Something similar happened to me with my nephew once. (Not a baseball, but the kid ended up with something cool that adults wanted.) The conversation went a little like this:

"Hey [Little ####], this guy is willing to pay you $[MOOLAH] for your [cool thing]."
"I'd rather keep the [cool thing]."
"Yeah, but $[MOOLAH] is a lot of money, you could buy a brand new playstation off of eBay with that kind of money."
"No, I want the [cool thing]."

<to bidder>
"Hey, sorry man, he wants to keep the [cool thing]."
\"#### you and #### the shitty kid."
"well, #### you too, buddy."
   16. jmurph Posted: April 05, 2023 at 02:41 PM (#6122711)
My kids (9 and 7) are currently into baseball cards and would definitely be into getting an autographed ball or whatever in exchange for the homerun ball, but like 2-3 years ago when they didn't care about that stuff? The homerun ball would have been way cooler to them. They would have lost it if I told them I was giving that away in exchange for some random stuff.
   17. Buck Coats Posted: April 05, 2023 at 02:57 PM (#6122713)
And also - I'm sure there is a price that the family would be willing to sell the ball for, it's just that Yoshida (and the Red Sox) aren't willing to pay it. I assume if they were offered 10 million dollars, they'd take it.
   18. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 05, 2023 at 08:27 PM (#6122790)
I was a 9-year-old Red Sox fanatic once, and if my Dad and I caught the first career HR of somebody like Yoshida (who seems like an awfully nice guy, and will be a good player for Boston the next 5 years, but is not going to be a Hall of Famer), and he asked for the ball back in exchange for something, we'd come up with something pretty quickly.

And then to see from the replay that the neither the kid nor his Dad actually caught the ball (a Pirates fan nearby caught it, and gave it to the kid)? This family sucks, TBH. Not only should the family make the deal - they should basically split it with the guy who actually caught the ball and gave it to them. Each should get, like:

- Tickets to another game
- A signed baseball from Yoshida
- Maybe some cash, or a picture with Yoshida before the next game, or whatever. Or not.

The first two things are easy, and cost the team basically nothing. The third one is sort of up to Yoshida, right? This is so dumb.
   19. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 05, 2023 at 09:16 PM (#6122800)
The story seems incomplete without reporting what the Red Sox offered. One would think that some combination of highly-coveted items that cost the team next to nothing would do the trick. Autographed balls, a meet & greet, and house tickets to a few games in good seats would usually do the trick, but perhaps the kid is just being a kid. If he insists on managing the Red Sox in a series against the Yankees, I say let him do it!
   20. Darren Posted: April 05, 2023 at 09:56 PM (#6122811)
Finally the voice of reason! I'm also ok with him pitching a couple innings.
   21. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 06, 2023 at 08:39 AM (#6122858)
I'm also ok with him pitching a couple innings.


Yeah, he'd fit right in with this staff.
   22. Darren Posted: April 06, 2023 at 02:25 PM (#6122906)

And then to see from the replay that the neither the kid nor his Dad actually caught the ball (a Pirates fan nearby caught it, and gave it to the kid)? This family sucks, TBH. Not only should the family make the deal - they should basically split it with the guy who actually caught the ball and gave it to them. Each should get, like:


I'd like to take a look through your possessions and decide which ones you should part with and for what price. Especially things you've received as gifts. :)
   23. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 06, 2023 at 06:58 PM (#6122944)
So glad we can discuss such an inane little topic instead of the highly encouraging play of the Sox. 72-90 here we come!
   24. pikepredator Posted: April 07, 2023 at 09:07 AM (#6122981)
It's early but these first 7 games have been pretty much what I'd expect to see out of the Red Sox. Wildly thrilling offensive outbursts, swept by a bad team, inconsistent starting pitching, strong bullpen . . . the road to .500 will be paved with some wild ups and downs, it seems.

OK maybe Duvall will come back to earth a bit. but that will be balanced out - eventually Yoshida will hit a fly ball.
   25. Darren Posted: April 07, 2023 at 10:27 AM (#6122994)
I have to admit the phrase "playing pepper with the infield" has popped back into my mind while watching Yoshida and I don't like it. On the plus side, his contact skills are as excellent as advertised and his statcast numbers say his 105 wRC+ is legit.

In 28 PA Duvall has 0.8 WAR, already surpassing his Steamer projection of 0.6 WAR (in 438 PA). That is good and will certainly continue.

On the pitching side, there were some encouraging signs from Kluber and Sale, enough at least to be able to hope that they'll be good this year. Hopefully, Whitlock and Bello's return will make the rotation far more solid.

   26. jmurph Posted: April 07, 2023 at 11:53 AM (#6123003)
I saw Whitlock in person last night looking practically unhittable against AA hitters, so surely that will translate 1:1 against the Rays and Yankees.

Agree that Sale has looked good, it doesn't seem crazy to me to expect 5-6 solid innings from him when he's out there.
   27. Darren Posted: April 07, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6123013)
Welcome aboard the optimism train, jmurph!
   28. jmurph Posted: April 07, 2023 at 01:31 PM (#6123016)
I have convinced myself, despite all available evidence, that the rotation should be okay.
   29. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 07, 2023 at 07:47 PM (#6123057)
I have convinced myself, despite all available evidence, that the rotation should be okay.


The Red Sox are last in MLB in starter ERA at 8.01, they are 27th in IP, 29th in WHIP, 11th in SO (OK, this is good), last in HR, 5th in BB. I mean, what about this makes you think, "oh, they should be ok", and not "man, this rotation is going to struggle"?
   30. villageidiom Posted: April 08, 2023 at 03:21 PM (#6123130)
What part of "despite all available evidence" was unclear?
   31. John DiFool2 Posted: April 08, 2023 at 07:19 PM (#6123147)
I'm still gonna follow Raffy's XBH pace like I did last year, which after today 2 dingers is 142. I think the Sox are going to be ecstatic with his contract going forward.
   32. Darren Posted: April 09, 2023 at 12:32 PM (#6123191)
Duvall update: 1.1 fWAR in 33 PA, surpassing his total of 1.0 fWAR in 315 PA last year. Here's hoping he doesn't pull a Travis Shaw 2016, where he put up 0.7 WAR the first month and a cool 0.0 the rest of the way. Even a Verdugo 2022 (0.4 WAR the first 10 games, 0.8 afterward) would be a bummer. But I'm sure that's not the case here. It's pretty clear that Duvall is in the best shape of his life, has figured something out, and has turned a corner. No, he's probably not going to continue on his 80 HR, 22 WAR pace. But something like 65 HR, 16 WAR appears to be the likeliest outcome.
   33. Darren Posted: April 09, 2023 at 12:38 PM (#6123192)
Did someone mention Alex Verdugo and strong starts? Verdugo had a great couple weeks at the beginning of 2022 and a strong month to start 2020 and 2021. He looks awesome right now but it's hard to get too excited until mid-May. But I will anyway. His contact numbers are great right now and he looks awesome. Hopefully he can stick to this approach all year.

   34. Darren Posted: April 09, 2023 at 12:42 PM (#6123193)
I just wish this team had some power. :)
   35. Darren Posted: April 09, 2023 at 06:01 PM (#6123253)
Uh. Heh heh. We don't believe in jinxes, right? Right everyone?
   36. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 09, 2023 at 06:54 PM (#6123261)
Right. Listen, I have a line on some great seats for the playoffs at Fenway this year. Send me a non-refundable deposit and they're yours.
   37. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 10, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6123299)
I see Red Sox fans are upset this morning because it appears Boston's short-term response to Duvall's injury is to call up Bobby Dalbec. It appears the idea is:

1) Use Tapia more in the OF, and move to Hernandez to CF several days a week
2) Use Dalbec in the "supersub" role as a right-handed bat (eight of the next nine games are against projected left-handed starters), he'll play some SS, etc

Fans are upset that Mondesi is not ready to play, but here's the thing: For the third (or fourth, depending how you look at 2020) season in a row, Bloom is fielding a "bridge" team, trying to put a competitive product on the field with veterans on short-term contracts, while awaiting the arrival of quality players from the farm system. When everything hits, you get the 2021 ALCS team. When it is somewhere in the middle, you get the 2022 team. Worst-case outcomes? 2020. It is obviously way too early to know where 2023 will fall.

But if people are upset that Adam Duvall's wrist is injured, well...the reason he was available late in the winter, and willing to sign a one-deal deal for only $7m guaranteed, is because he injured the same wrist last summer, is a power-dependent player, and was questionable entering 2023.

Mondesi was available because he is always injured, and Kansas City basically gave up on him. Turner was willing to sign a (basically) one-year deal because he was in decline, and is 38 years old. Kluber signed a one-year deal because nobody would give him a two-year deal and the promise of a rotation spot. And so forth.

I am obviously disappointed that Duvall is injured, potentially for a long time. He had an awesome first week of the season. But in terms of the franchise, Duvall has nothing to do with whether or not the team is going anywhere over the next five years. I am much more invested in Devers, Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck, and Yoshida than Duvall, who at best is a trade piece this July, because those other guys are the ones who will determine if we're competitive in the 2020s.

That's what is increasingly frustrating about being a Red Sox fan: We are now at a place where fans are like, "What are we going to do without Duvall's bat?!" The answer is, "Win 78 games instead of 80?" And, because we all know it has nothing to do with 2024 and beyond, we fans are uninvested in most of the players. It's one thing when players you come to like are unexpectedly traded after the season; it's another thing when the organization basically tells you up front that these are a bunch of rentals while we wait for players in Salem and Greenville to pan out.
   38. Darren Posted: April 10, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6123300)
I want to be bummed about it being Dalbec, but with so many lefty starters coming up, it makes some sense. I still find the idea of him playing SS to be laughable, but we'll see I guess.
   39. Textbook Editor Posted: April 10, 2023 at 10:52 AM (#6123313)
I want to be bummed about it being Dalbec, but with so many lefty starters coming up, it makes some sense. I still find the idea of him playing SS to be laughable, but we'll see I guess.


Yeah, I just can't see this working, but I am willing to wait and see if this "punt defense, get the best 9 bats you have in the lineup" approach works before saying it's insane. Lots of things that a 1950s or 1960s fan would have thought insane now happen on an everyday basis in baseball.

I mean, in some ways, aren't the Padres doing a high-end version of this? Granted, the 9 bats at their disposal are way, way better than the Red Sox' 9 bats, but they are moving pieces around in a way that seems at least in the same ballpark. (The Phillies sort of did this last year too, once Harper went out.)

Again, I like the team I'm supporting to field baseballs in a non-laughingstock way, but it's not 100% clear to me that completely punting defense for offense wouldn't work at all, and in fact might be a reasonable way to approach a season, especially if a given team (like the Red Sox this season) don't have viable glove+bat players at every position.

Do I think Dalbec is the second coming of Brock Holt? I do not. But if he's 65% of Holt's prime years value, is that worth something on a team with no other options? Eh, maybe.

But hey--over .500!
   40. Nasty Nate Posted: April 10, 2023 at 11:09 AM (#6123317)
Yeah, I just can't see this working, but I am willing to wait and see if this "punt defense, get the best 9 bats you have in the lineup" approach works before saying it's insane. Lots of things that a 1950s or 1960s fan would have thought insane now happen on an everyday basis in baseball.

I mean, in some ways, aren't the Padres doing a high-end version of this? Granted, the 9 bats at their disposal are way, way better than the Red Sox' 9 bats, but they are moving pieces around in a way that seems at least in the same ballpark. (The Phillies sort of did this last year too, once Harper went out.)
The Padres are playing 4 shortstops at a time - that's not punting defense!
   41. Darren Posted: April 10, 2023 at 11:52 AM (#6123325)
Maybe to fill this hole in the OF, the Red Sox should see what Franchy Cordero is up to. Maybe he pops a few HRs and contributes half a win. I know, I know, that's completely ridiculous.
   42. Darren Posted: April 10, 2023 at 11:54 AM (#6123327)
But if people are upset that Adam Duvall's wrist is injured, well...the reason he was available late in the winter, and willing to sign a one-deal deal for only $7m guaranteed, is because he injured the same wrist last summer, is a power-dependent player, and was questionable entering 2023.


I think people are just upset because the guy who was raking got hurt. It's not like anyone was saying he was going to keep doing this. (Do not look upthread please.)
   43. Darren Posted: April 10, 2023 at 12:14 PM (#6123333)
Hernandez's early struggles got me thinking about his signing. At the time, it seemed okay, but with him ending up at SS, where he's looked really bad, it occurs to me that they really didn't need to sign him at all. What was the rush? He was having a poor, injury-filled year. His money could have gone toward an actual SS.
   44. pikepredator Posted: April 10, 2023 at 03:59 PM (#6123360)
We're starting this Rays series at the perfect time, they are due for a losing streak!! No way can they start the season 13-0. Or even 10-0.

This ends tonight!!

Go Sox!!

Edit to add: I don't believe in jinxes either, Darren!
   45. pikepredator Posted: April 10, 2023 at 04:00 PM (#6123361)
We're starting this Rays series at the perfect time, they are due for a losing streak!! No way can they start the season 13-0. Or even 10-0.

This ends tonight!!

Go Sox!!

Edit to add: I don't believe in jinxes either, Darren!
   46. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 10, 2023 at 06:23 PM (#6123409)
Kiké is trash , but Cora likes him, and since they're punting this year and next, we will see him play a lot, and put up an OPS+ of between 85 and 98. As SB'sPT says about Duvall, same for Kiké, minus being the trade chip that a healthy Duvall would be.


Tonight they play a team that hasn't played against a good team yet this season.
   47. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 10, 2023 at 06:24 PM (#6123410)
Duvall's wrist is broken.
   48. Darren Posted: April 11, 2023 at 09:34 AM (#6123488)
I told you all we shouldn't trade Beeks.
   49. Darren Posted: April 11, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6123489)
On the positive side:

--Winckowski is looking good: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K, 1.00 ERA
--After a shaky first start, Pivetta looked great yesterday against a tough lineup.
--In the pen: Kelly, Martin, and Schreiber have all done well. One shaky outing for Jansen but he should be fine.
--Everyone's favorite player, Bobby D, is back!
   50. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 11, 2023 at 10:04 AM (#6123490)
Duvall's wrist is broken.


Injury-prone players gonna injury!
   51. Darren Posted: April 11, 2023 at 10:12 AM (#6123491)
On Jansen, both he and Kimbrel are well ahead of Mariano's save total through age 34:

Kimbrel 394 (now 395)
Jansen 391 (now 393)
Mariano 336

The problem for these guys is, of course, that Mariano kept going until age 43. And despite missing almost his entire age 42 season, put up another 316 saves! They now face the same huge challenge that K-Rod (430 through age 34), Smith (355), Hoffman (352), and Papelbon (349) couldn't overcome: stay healthy enough, stay effective, and stay in the closer's job for another decade or so just to have a shot.

I wouldn't say that this record is as unbreakable as 511 wins, but in today's game, it's got to be on the next tier of unbreakableness.

   52. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 11, 2023 at 01:07 PM (#6123516)
I wouldn't say that this record is as unbreakable as 511 wins, but in today's game, it's got to be on the next tier of unbreakableness.
There is a path, but it’s quite difficult. Rivera didn’t become the closer until his age-27 season. With some pitchers being groomed as closers from when they’re drafted, or being shifted into that duty early, getting a head start on Rivera is fairly easy. Keeping up is the hard part. Mariano never had a bad season, and never had an arm injury, just that somewhat flukish torn ACL shagging flies. Even good relievers are likely to be less consistent and more injury-prone. For all the talk of the one-inning workload (and Rivera often did more when it mattered), I think we may be underestimating the effects of pitching and warming up so frequently. It seems to take a toll beyond what just the innings pitched would suggest. Of course, playing into one’s 40s is pretty rare at all positions.

I don’t think Kimbrel or Jansen are far enough ahead of Rivera’s pace to break his record, given the inconsistency and injuries they have already experienced, but if they push through to 500 saves fairly quickly without any setbacks, I might have to rethink that.
   53. Darren Posted: April 11, 2023 at 02:48 PM (#6123530)
I thought Kimbrel and K-Rod, starting so young and doing it so well, had the best shots. K-Rod had another 7 saves at 35 and then was done. Kimbrel has been inconsistent in health, effectiveness, and holding down the closer's job.

Jansen has been more consistent, held onto the closer's role, and stayed fairly healthy. He's still a longshot. He has a pretty good shot at ending up 3rd by passing Smith (478) for number three, though.
   54. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 11, 2023 at 07:01 PM (#6123566)
I told you all we shouldn't trade Beeks.


He's proved to be very useful stealing crop reports before they're made public.
   55. Darren Posted: April 12, 2023 at 12:43 PM (#6123725)
Let's catch up with some old friends from last year's team:

Bogaerts: .333/.426/.667, 0.8 WAR
Franchy: .286/.348/.762, 0.4 WAR
Hosmer: .310/.394/.379, 0.4 WAR
JDM: .267/.314/.511, 0.1 WAR


Strahm: 10 IP, 2.01 FIP, 0.4 WAR
Eovaldi: 10.2 IP, 2.00 FIP, 0.4 WAR
Wacha: 12 IP, 3.49 FIP, 0.3 WAR
   56. Darren Posted: April 12, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6123733)
Vazquez: .320/.433/.360, 0.3 WAR
   57. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 12, 2023 at 03:18 PM (#6123741)
Last night, during the Bruins game, during a commercial break, I switched over to the other NESN channel and heard Youkilis talking about how Connor Wong was able to throw out two base-stealers, after the team allowing 16 for 16 stolen base attempts to be successful, and saying how that was a good sign. Then they showed the score of the game....5-1, Tampa. I laughed a little, and switched back to the Bruins.
   58. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 12, 2023 at 06:25 PM (#6123772)
Yoshida scratched with a hamstring issue; Hernandez and Refsnyder joining Verdugo in the outfield tonight. I believe the 4th outfielder will soon be Reid Nichols (who is currently 64 years of age, but is reportedly "in the best shape of his life").

Dalbec starting at shortstop. Among shortstops, Dalbec is to fielding what Mark Belanger was to hitting.

On the bright side, the Celtics are now facing Atlanta in round one, rather than Miami, thanks to last night's play-in tournament result. And the Bruins have already broken the record for most wins and points in a season.

In all seriousness, I (like pretty much everybody) has a finite among of time a week to be able to watch sports. For the next few months, if the Bruins and Celtics are doing what both are favored to be doing in the playoffs, it is going to be very difficult to get much of anybody in New England locked in on the Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox until mid-June to get it together and make a compelling case to fans that we should get invested in the team for the remainder of the season.
   59. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 12, 2023 at 07:33 PM (#6123786)
Dalbec starting at shortstop. Among shortstops, Dalbec is to fielding what Mark Belanger was to hitting.


Dalbec with an error in the 1st inning. Shocking.



Connor Wong was able to throw out two base-stealers, after the team allowing 16 for 16 stolen base attempts to be successful, and saying how that was a good sign. Then they showed the score of the game....5-1, Tampa. I laughed a little, and switched back to the Bruins.


Hey now, noted batsman Wong's defense is carrying him to 0.0 WAR. It's something at least.
   60. Darren Posted: April 12, 2023 at 08:29 PM (#6123796)
Okay, I'll admit it. Things are looking bad.
   61. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 12, 2023 at 09:25 PM (#6123810)
Yoshida scratched with a hamstring issue
An injury & a .631 OPS over the last week? Might be The Curse Of The Lost HR Ball. Better pay the ransom.
   62. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 12, 2023 at 10:02 PM (#6123824)
Wow.:

- Chris Sale was awful for the second time in three starts
- Bobby Dalbec, 0-for-4 with an error
- Zach Kelly appeared to blow out his arm throwing a pitch
- Sox fall seven games out of first place...after 12 games.

Devers hit a three-run jack. Thank goodness we kept him. I just wish we had thrown a bag of money a few years ago at Bogaerts. It is remarkable how poorly Bloom has developed (or not developed) a Plan B when Bogaerts left. Why we would pay a closer $32m over two years while not getting a legitimate middle infielder escapes me. It's like getting leather seats for your 1990 Honda Civic.
   63. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 13, 2023 at 08:29 AM (#6123862)
I think it has to be that they've decided this year was a lost year and they're gambling Jansen will fetch them value at the trade deadline.

But if they don't get a SS for '24 or '25, and go with Story there....that would be awful.
   64. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 13, 2023 at 10:23 AM (#6123879)
I think it has to be that they've decided this year was a lost year and they're gambling Jansen will fetch them value at the trade deadline.


You think they can get much for $6M or so for the prorated portion + $16M for next year? That's an expensive gamble.
   65. Textbook Editor Posted: April 13, 2023 at 11:39 AM (#6123888)
While I'm assuming it won't come to this (that he will eventually either be good enough or middling enough to at least be a #5 starter), I have started thinking about what the Red Sox might do if Sale is hopeless/awful through, say, 15-20 starts. Assuming he's otherwise healthy, I wonder if they ever make any move for him to be a 1-2 IP guy 2-3x a week instead.

I mean, he essentially has no value except for a like-for-like salary dump, and they owe him $27.5 this season and next season, so they wouldn't just outright release him, but if he is getting knocked around as a starter on an every-5th-day basis, something will have to give at some point.

Starting to think playing kids and bottoming out would have been the better play than signing a bunch of 1-year deal guys. Jansen's not terrible, but given the likely circumstances this season, Bloom is like the Joker setting $32 million on fire in the middle of Fenway. It's nuts.

Only reason I can think as to why the "fail for 1-2 years" approach hasn't been taken is that Henry & Co. must have some market data that says that their revenue would crater if they did that for 1-2 years, and maybe after 2020 they really can't afford to have revenue tank. But honestly, if they were just up front about the plan, I think fans would generally come around on it. Sure, many wouldn't be happy, but at least A PLAN would be in place, whereas now they look like a drowning person flailing around in the ocean.
   66. Jay Seaver Posted: April 13, 2023 at 12:52 PM (#6123891)
Truly, it is a mystery why a business which not only includes a baseball team, but the stadium, nearby parking, a chunk of the nearby souvenir stores, and a majority share in the television network that broadcasts the team's games (now also including a streaming service for cord-cutters), with the owner also owning a newspaper whose sports section covers the team year-round, in a city where many of the potential customers are college students who are new to the area and/or not necessarily here for the long haul, would put a high priority on making sure that the team has a better-than-even chance to win (or at least be worth following) day in and day out, even if it makes building The Next Great Team harder. Why would they do that rather than cater primarily to the die-hards who pay enough attention to the farm system to care about "a plan"?

I don't know if the Red Sox have that much more motivation to focus on the short-term compared to teams who play in publicly-funded statdia and get the same money from their cable channels whether they are good or not and have different local demographics - and there's a big argument to be made that, given how up-and-down their fortunes have been during the Henry era, they may not be particularly good at it - but I don't think you can look at how they operate without taking that into consideration. As fans who pay close attention to the team over the long term, it doesn't always make sense from that viewpoint, but we're weird outliers compared to all the folks who might go to a game or two every year or switch to NESN rather than Netflix depending on how likely a good result is.
   67. Darren Posted: April 13, 2023 at 02:30 PM (#6123897)
61. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 12, 2023 at 09:25 PM (#6123810)

Yoshida scratched with a hamstring issue

An injury & a .631 OPS over the last week? Might be The Curse Of The Lost HR Ball. Better pay the ransom.


And here I was having a nice civil conversation with you about the save record. Scram.

   68. Darren Posted: April 13, 2023 at 02:31 PM (#6123898)
The cynical side of me says that Jansen was a big name signing to convince fans they were trying to compete.
   69. Darren Posted: April 13, 2023 at 03:03 PM (#6123904)
Jose Ramirez started for Salem yesterday and went 4 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 0 R. Sounds like a great guy!
   70. The Mighty Quintana Posted: April 13, 2023 at 03:30 PM (#6123908)
Posting Franchy stats is too cruel at this point. Mercy, as Ned Martin would say.
   71. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 13, 2023 at 04:50 PM (#6123923)
3. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: February 21, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6118041)


This offense is going to suck. The starting pitching will be injured and shitty. The defense will be barely acceptable. And as always, I have no clue how the pen will be, although I would wager there's a solid 75% chance Jansen is not the closer by the trade deadline (and yes, the Sox will be carrying dead money on his contract next year). SUPER EXCITED! LETS GO SOX!
   72. Darren Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:33 AM (#6123970)
This offense is going to suck. The starting pitching will be injured and shitty. The defense will be barely acceptable.



Ha ha, you were wrong about the defense!
   73. Darren Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:51 AM (#6123974)
Is it possible I was too optimistic? No! It's reality that's wrong.
   74. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:01 PM (#6123993)
#72 - You've got me laughing my ass off in my chair right now, well done. I figured someone would say that the offense was decent at least.
   75. Darren Posted: April 14, 2023 at 02:17 PM (#6124018)
Glad I could make you laugh in these dark times. Another happy note: no home run for Franchy yesterday!


   76. The Mighty Quintana Posted: April 16, 2023 at 12:15 PM (#6124238)
Beautiful Saturday win at Fenway...I daresay Verdugo looks, in-shape? Honestly, it makes it easy to root for him when you can tell he's all-in.
   77. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 16, 2023 at 07:37 PM (#6124325)
And today's win was better.
   78. Bad Fish Posted: April 16, 2023 at 10:05 PM (#6124351)
There are rough spots, but I think they look ok, and things seem to be smoothing in the right direction.
   79. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 17, 2023 at 08:27 AM (#6124370)
1:57 time of game. Lineup the last time the Sox played a sub-2 hour game. Lost 1-0 to Detroit, 4/22/99.

Offerman - 2B
Valentin - 3B
Garciaparra - SS
Stanley - DH
Buford - CF
Merloni - 1B
Gubanich - C
Sadler - LF
Lewis - RF
Jefferson - PH
Portugal - P (CG)
   80. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 09:57 AM (#6124378)
Hm. Merloni at 1B or in the booth... That's a tough one.
   81. John DiFool2 Posted: April 17, 2023 at 09:59 AM (#6124379)
If Sale's ERA will just normalize (actual: 11.25. xFIP: 3.74) the team would be right as rain.
   82. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 10:03 AM (#6124381)
The Angels have looked terrible but this still feels better than things did 3 days ago.

With Bello back today and Paxton expected to follow soon (stop laughing), there's going to be a rotation crunch:

Sale
Kluber
Pivetta
Whitlock
Bello
Paxton
Houck

The consensus seems to be that they'll send Pivetta and Houck to the pen, which has some merit I guess. But Pivetta's been the rock of the rotation the past 2 years and seems like the best bet to give you 150+ IP. Sucks for him and I get why he's mad.
   83. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 10:21 AM (#6124384)
I didn't think Wong's defense would be a strength, but dang, he sure can throw 'em out. Baserunners are 15-15 in SB against McGuire and 2-6 against Wong.

Maybe he'll hit like expected and turn into a valuable player?
   84. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 17, 2023 at 11:08 AM (#6124396)
On the point made about Wong by Darren in #83:

As of Patriots Day, Wong's WAR is the 4th-highest among position players, at 0.3 WAR. He's slightly below zero offensively, but already worth half a WAR defensively.

The funny thing is, Reese McGuire is the 5th-highest offensively on the team thus far, but has a negative defensive WAR.

Wong hits righty, and McGuire hits lefty, so you could see a platoon where McGuire gets more of the PAs. I still think that no matter how good an arm your catcher has, you can't afford to have a complete zero offensively at the position, especially if you're getting nothing out of your 2B or SS, either. You're just giving up three innings a game offensively. And there is evidence that McGuire is better at throwing out runners than his dreadful early 2023 stats (his 2019-2022 stats are above average in this regard).

But if Wong actually is this good at controlling the run game, then that is actually worth a fair amount of offensive output. It'll be measured both in the CS%, but also if it leads to a greatly reduced number of attempts, as opponents see the risk as too high to try often.

I'm pretty down on this 2023 team, but one position where I've always thought Bloom's done a pretty good job this off-season was catcher. I like McGuire, and Wong may be better defensively than I thought (I still think he can't hit), and both are cheap for the next few years. They got two pretty interesting bats for Vazquez, who was probably not going to be around by the time the team gets good again, anyway.

   85. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 11:29 AM (#6124398)
What are everyone's thoughts 10% into the season? 8-8, positive run differential, some real peaks and valleys in terms of play.
   86. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 17, 2023 at 12:50 PM (#6124419)
Maybe he'll hit like expected and turn into a valuable player?


Who expects he'll hit?
   87. Jay Seaver Posted: April 17, 2023 at 01:15 PM (#6124427)
When they traded for Wong, wasn't there talk that he might wind up at a corner infield position rather than catcher, both based on shaky defense and a good offensive reputation in the minors? Or at least, that might have been what was expected if he stayed in the LA system rather than coming to Boston where there were fewer catching prospects.

Anyway, 10% of the way into the season, I'm really worried about the lack of depth and the way Chris Sale seems to have a great big fork sticking out of his back. The injuries to Duvall and Story, who were both already Plan B, leave me feeling like the teams going to have a bunch of runs where they just can't get it together.
   88. pikepredator Posted: April 17, 2023 at 01:20 PM (#6124429)
Re: 85:

When they're good I want to believe they're better than I thought they'd be. But then I realize sweeping the Angels and Tigers doesn't really mean they're "Good", it just means they aren't THAT bad.

And when they play badly, I tend to find myself thinking "would a good team look this bad? unlikely . . ."

Although the Tampa Bay sweep was a worst-case outcome in some ways . . . on the other hand, at least they were in most of those games until the end. It didn't feel like a "we're hopeless" sweep, it felt like a "this team is close to being good!".

Which is probably the feeling I'll carry through the season. "This team is close to being good!". Which feels OK in isolation, but in reality means they are not actually Good.
   89. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 01:29 PM (#6124439)
Who expects he'll hit?


ZIPS .258 .304 .435
Steamer .244 .293 .413

That's what I mean by 'hit as expected.'
   90. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 01:40 PM (#6124440)
So far:

--Starting pitching has been very bad. Soooo bad. There's at least hope that this will improve as Sale rounds into shape and we get Whitlock/Bello/Paxton back.
--Bullpen: Pretty good. Looks promising going forward.
--Offense: Decent. I'd expect to remain about this good as some folks rebound a bit, offsetting the loss of Duvall's early dominance.
--Defense: Looked pretty bad and doesn't appear that it will get much better without some luck/changes in personnel.

   91. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 17, 2023 at 02:16 PM (#6124448)
ZIPS


ZIPS should be renamed "DARTS".
   92. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 17, 2023 at 02:17 PM (#6124449)
Wong will never have a season with more than 400 PAs where he has a .700 OPS.
   93. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 17, 2023 at 02:34 PM (#6124454)
I mean, anything is possible, I guess.

The most success that unproven Red Sox players have had come from Houck and Whitlock. All the others have to prove they belong in the majors.
   94. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 02:54 PM (#6124457)
No one is projecting him for more than 400 PA.
   95. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6124461)
Also, a good defensive catcher doesn't need a .700 OPS to be a valuable player. From 2022:

Nido: 313 PA, .600, 0.9 WAR
Caratini: 314 PA, .642, 1.2 WAR
Trevino: 353 PA, .671, 3.7 WAR
Ruiz: 433 PA, .673 1.7 WAR
   96. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 03:13 PM (#6124462)
The most success that unproven Red Sox players have had come from Houck and Whitlock. All the others have to prove they belong in the majors.


You're saying that the unproven players have to prove themselves?
   97. . . . . . . Posted: April 17, 2023 at 04:08 PM (#6124476)
What are everyone's thoughts 10% into the season? 8-8, positive run differential, some real peaks and valleys in terms of play.


I still don't get what the Red Sox are trying to do. The AL East as a whole has a .637 Win%. In 80 aggregate games, so that's no longer a small sample size (although obviously it's not going to sustain for a whole season).

Being "OK" is completely uninteresting this season and was foreseeably uninteresting!
   98. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 17, 2023 at 04:24 PM (#6124479)

You're saying that the unproven players have to prove themselves?


I'm saying that those in the Rose Colored Glasses Brigade are too quick to anoint rookies as MLB talent.
   99. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 17, 2023 at 04:26 PM (#6124481)
Yep, that's right. In 2007, we had The Pants Pissers. In 2022, we saw the appearance of The Rose Colored Glasses Brigade.
   100. Darren Posted: April 17, 2023 at 05:52 PM (#6124504)
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