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   1. Darren Posted: March 30, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6069663)
Yay, thanks for bringing this back.

Here are my guesses:

Team Wins, 86.5: Over. Tough one, but I'll go slightly over.
Triston Casas, 59.5 game: Under. I believe he'll get a half season in AAA, and then not play completely full time if/when called up.
JBJ, OPS+, 90: Under. Last year was really really bad. Really. Bad. I expect a bounce back but not back to his previous levels. Maybe 80. Enough so he has some value as a role player.
JD, 32.5 HR: He's on the decline a bit. I expect a slight dropoff from last year's 28 and maybe a slight reduction in playing time.
Devers, 4.5 WAR: Ugh, another tough number! I'm going to over, probably by only a little. But I could see him reaching a new level and crushing that number.
Tanner Whitlock, 22.5 starts: Over. I expect at least one of these guys to be in the rotation at any given time.
Mayer in AA: nope.
Saves leader: Barnes, but it may be close.
New Face in the Lineup Opening Day? Nope, this is the team.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: March 30, 2022 at 02:07 PM (#6069668)
Team Leader in saves - ??? - Jose says Hansel Robles. 
This doesn't prohibit him from becoming team leader, but he is not even in camp yet due to visa issues.
   3. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: March 30, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6069670)
Team wins, 86.5: I think about 88 - good enough to be in the WC hunt with a week to go, but probably not the division hunt.

Casas, 59.5 games: Under. The Red Sox seem to like Dalbac a lot more than I do (nothing personal, Bobby!). But if Dalbec is hitting .210 in late May, and Casas is tearing the cover off the ball in AAA, I suppose Casas could be up pretty early.

JBJ, OPS+ of 90: Under. I still do not get that trade. I get trading Renfroe. I get continuing to build prospect depth. And I get loving JBJ on a personal and organizational level. But he can't hit, and he makes a lot of money. And we still don't have three starting outfielders.

JD, 32.5 HRs: Under on anything JD Martinez-related. He had a lousy 2020. And his 2021 wasn't that good, folks. He had a white-hot April 2021, and then here were his stats after May 1st last year:

122 G, 522 PAs, 19 HRs, 73 RBIs, 41/126 BB/K, .271/.328/.472

Now, if you put that line on JBJ in 2022, you can deal with it, because you're getting a lot of defense,and JBJ is making less money that Martinez. But to clog up the DH position with a guy who is probably going to struggle to get you a .775 OPS, no defense, etc? If Dalbec and Casas are hitting the cover off the ball early in 2022, and Martinez struggles, I could see the team giving JD some time off, finding a "back injury", etc. But I think he's about toast.

Devers, 4.5 WAR: Over. I worry about Devers' long-term athleticism and ability to play third, but for the next few years? I'm glad we've got him through 2023.

Houck/Whitlock, 22.5 GS: Under, with one caveat. If the teams goes a stretch with more of a piggyback system for one or more of the SP slots, then you could see one or both of these guys being "openers". This would likely put them in the "over" category for this one, but doesn't mean they are being used truly as starters.

Mayer: Nope. I think he'll start 2023 at AA, but end 2022 in high-A.

Saves leader: Barnes. I feel good that he'll be back, with a more managed workload early in the season.

New Face for Opening Day: There's got to be another outfielder coming in this week, right? Please?

Finally, a bonus two to offer up:

1) "If the Red Sox win the division, 95 games, and get to the World Series this year, what things(s) happened to make it so?"
It would probably mean they solved their third OF problem in a big way; Dalbec and Casas likely contributed quite a bit this year at 1B/DH or something; Barnes had a legit bounceback year as the closer; the starting rotation was as healthy as they were in 2021; Sale came back had 20+ vintage Sale starts; but basically, the starting pitching was a lot better than I think it will be.

2) "If the Sox finish under .500 this year, what happened to make it so?"
They got little offense from RF, 1B, or catcher; poor health in the starting rotation; Story struggled to acclimate; basically, the team got extraordinarily lucky on the health and durability of their starting pitchers. A lot of them weren't that good (Pivetta, ERod, Richards, Perez, etc were durable...and really average, as a group), but as they say, the best ability is availability. If you take similar levels of performance, but make it a lot less healthy, then it means a few dozen starts are going to your 7th or 8th best option...which is not good enough to consistently win, especially if a third of your lineup isn't giving you offense. That's my worst-case scenario.
   4. villageidiom Posted: March 30, 2022 at 02:17 PM (#6069671)
Team Wins (86.5) - UNDER.
Triston Casas Games Played (59.5) - UNDER.
Chris Sale Starts (18.5) - UNDER.
Jackie Bradley Jr. OPS+ (90) - UNDER.
JD Martinez Home Runs (32.5) - UNDER.
Rafael Devers WAR (4.5) - OVER.
Tanner Houck/Garrett Whitlock Combined Starts (22.5) - OVER.
Marcelo Mayer ends season at AA - False
Team Leader in saves - Barnes
Is Someone Not in the Organization in the Opening Day Lineup? - No

I'm pegging them at 86 wins. They are a good team, but too many other teams have made more significant improvements this year. 86 wins might still be good enough for 3rd place in this division.

I think with the bat Devers might make 6+ WAR, which will be enough to offset further slight declines in defense.

This is not a threat, but some starter in addition to Sale is going down for significant time. The scenarios that get Whitlock and Houck out of the bullpen are the ones where they need long-term coverage for the rotation.

Barnes will be back. I think last year he felt the pressure of the contract extension and it got into his head a bit. The good news is he pretty much has recognized that was the problem, which should have made it easier to address it in the offseason. His stuff still plays if he commands it, which I think he will.
   5. villageidiom Posted: March 30, 2022 at 02:33 PM (#6069672)
Bonus two:

1) "If the Red Sox win the division, 95 games, and get to the World Series this year, what things(s) happened to make it so?"

The other teams in the division simply not getting it done, either due to injury or other implosion. I seriously don't think there is a path this year to 95 wins unless the other teams cede it to them. Mind you, with expanded playoffs Boston might actually get there, and if things break right they could win the Series. They are good enough to have a shot at beating the best teams in a short series. But 95 wins and the division? No. They don't just need things to go right for themselves (esp. with pitching), but more so they need things to go wrong for the other teams.

2) "If the Sox finish under .500 this year, what happened to make it so?"

I was going to say "injuries" but I don't even a reasonably bad injury season will do it. I think it would be a combination of early injuries keeping them far underwater through the trade deadline, and then Bloom going into sales mode with the impending free agents (Hernandez, Martinez, Eovaldi if healthy) and maybe Bogaerts.
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: March 30, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6069677)
I hadn't really thought about the "deadline seller" scenario, which is possible (though the extra WC slots make it easy to be "in the playoff hunt" in late July, even if you're a little under .500).

Also, I think the injury that would hurt the team the most would be Eovaldi. I know 11-9, 3.75 ERA doesn't scream "Wow," but he was (by modern standards) a real workhorse last year. He was excellent in 2020 and 2021, and was probably one of the most valuable pitchers in the AL last year. If he's healthy, he'll be very good; but if he is not healthy, it could go south in a hurry. Then, you're asking Houck/Whitlock to do more, which puts more pressure on the bullpen, and so forth...
   7. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: March 30, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6069678)
My parents are right behind the visitor dugout today. Apparently a snake was on the field and someone threw it into the stands. My mother was less than delighted.
   8. The Mighty Quintana Posted: March 31, 2022 at 10:58 AM (#6069767)
Team Wins, 86.5 wins: Over...hope springs eternal. This team is going to score runs, and should defend a little better than last year.
Triston Casas, 59.5 games: Under...what's the rush? I expect .250 30 85 from Dalbec.
JBJ, OPS+ 90: Under...just catch everything near you JBJ.
JD Martinez, 32.5 HR: Under...he's hitting the "pick his spots" stage of his career. Hoping a spike in OBP will offset any power loss.
Rafael Devers, 4.5 WAR: Over...he's a masher.
Houck/Whitlock, 22.5 starts: Over...and loving it!
Mayer in AA: No...Again, what's the rush?
Saves leader: Sawamura...please, anyone but Robles, my heart can't take that.
New Face in the Lineup Opening Day? No...run with what we got.
   9. The Mighty Quintana Posted: March 31, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6069834)
Chris Sale starts, 18.5: Under...man he was good, but that frame and delivery were never sustainable.
   10. Bad Fish Posted: March 31, 2022 at 11:26 PM (#6069903)
team wins - over, I have hope until facts prove otherwise. 93 wins;
Casas - under, Dalbec is going 325 ops/525 slg;
Martinez - under, he will have a servicable season, and has been a great signing, but can't fight father time;
Devers - over, great player whose tide is still coming in;
H/W - Over, one of them is a full time starter by the end of the year
Mayer - yes!
Saves leader - which ever one of H/W is not starting
new face - don't know
Sale starts - over, he starts 20-22 games
   11. John DiFool2 Posted: April 01, 2022 at 09:53 AM (#6069922)
I think Devers has a shot (outside shot, but a chance) at either the 50/50 club with Albert Belle or 60/40, with a possible run at Webb's double record.
   12. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 04, 2022 at 09:07 AM (#6070276)
Man if spring performance means anything Devers might do 70/70. The home run he hit yesterday, if you didn't see it find it. It was just ####### stupid. 0-2 pitch down at his feet inside corner. Catcher dropped to block it, Raffy was out on his front foot and launched it 400 feet. Dave O'Brien and Tony Mazz were invoking Vladimir Guerrero (the old guy) and with good reason.
   13. Darren Posted: April 05, 2022 at 04:58 PM (#6070441)
I conveniently left out Sale earlier so.... under! :)
   14. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 26, 2022 at 02:06 PM (#6073790)
Under on everything, except for how many pitchers will be used in the starting rotation this year: 15.
   15. villageidiom Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:06 AM (#6092010)
Did someone ask how the over/unders look at this point, projected to the end of the season? Well I'm glad you asked.

Team Wins (86.5) - On pace for 80 wins. UNDER

Triston Casas Games Played (59.5) - On pace for 0, and there are only 45 games remaining. UNDER

Chris Sale Starts (18.5) - Started 2, and on pace for 3 I guess, but really it's 2. UNDER

Jackie Bradley Jr. OPS+ (90) - The only thing that will move him off his current level of 60 is if the league baseline changes. UNDER

JD Martinez Home Runs (32.5) - On pace for 12. UNDER

Rafael Devers WAR (4.5) - Sitting at 4.3, on pace for 6.0. OVER

Tanner Houck/Garrett Whitlock Combined Starts (22.5) - 13, and let's face it this likely isn't going over 15 though the pace is 18. UNDER
   16. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:38 AM (#6092011)
They've used 12 different SPs this year. That might be an under.
   17. villageidiom Posted: August 17, 2022 at 04:33 PM (#6092054)
The other items:

Marcelo Mayer ends season at AA: Doubtful at this point. A 910 OPS in 66 games in Salem earned him a promotion to Greenville, where he's played only 7 games so far with a 654 OPS. Even if he starts cooking with gas there I don't think it's likely he gets promoted with just a month left in the season.

Team Leader in saves: Houck leads with 8. Schreiber and Whitlock have 4 each. Bad Fish made the right call, and all of us who picked Barnes... Well, he's only 5 off the lead...

Is Someone Not in the Organization in the Opening Day Lineup? Spoiler alert for those who haven't tuned in yet: no.

   18. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: August 18, 2022 at 07:03 AM (#6092122)
1) JD Martinez since May 27th - 280 PAs, 65 games:

.215/.300/.337
4 HRs
25 RBIs
27/69 BB/K

It is pretty remarkable how bad he has been for a long time now.

2) I know the team is only four games out of the wild card, and they've got many games left against the teams in front of them in that race, they are back to .500, etc., etc...but let's be clear-eyed about the remaining seven weeks: What can this team do that will have the most long-term benefit for 2023 and beyond?

- I like that there are signs Matt Barnes is restoring his value. A productive Barnes entering 2023 would be quite useful.
- If Casas can get a month or more to play most days in the bigs, that would make me feel better going into next year.
- I'd love to see Story come back and have a strong final month.
- Crawford has looked really good. If he pitches well for the rest of the year, we put him in the rotation for 2023, no questions asked?
- Any chance Paxton gets on the field this season?
- Few things would make me feel better about the future of the Red Sox than Mayer and Yorke having an awesome final month, especially Yorke (Mayer seems to be progressing just fine.). This has been a tough year for him and injuries. The idea that at some point in 2023, they could be two hot prospects playing together in Portland, would be pretty exciting.

3) Just saying: To hit 88 wins, the team will have to go 29-15 from here on in. That is obviously not likely to happen, but:

- nine of their remaining games are against KC (3 at home), Texas (4 at home), and Cincy (2 on the road)
- 10 of their remaining games are against Baltimore. The Orioles are obviously a lot better than they've been, but I could see that worm turning in either direction, and either one of the two teams winning 8 of those 10 games.
- 6 of their remaining games are against the Yankees, who have been surprisingly mediocre for a long time now. Maybe it is because they ran away with the division so early, or maybe they aren't as good as we thought?




   19. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: August 18, 2022 at 08:59 AM (#6092133)
- nine of their remaining games are against KC (3 at home), Texas (4 at home), and Cincy (2 on the road)
- 10 of their remaining games are against Baltimore. The Orioles are obviously a lot better than they've been, but I could see that worm turning in either direction, and either one of the two teams winning 8 of those 10 games.
- 6 of their remaining games are against the Yankees, who have been surprisingly mediocre for a long time now. Maybe it is because they ran away with the division so early, or maybe they aren't as good as we thought?


11-14 in those games.
   20. John DiFool2 Posted: August 18, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6092150)
Good news on the farm. Marcelo Mayer after starting high A 1 for 19 hit a home run last night as his stats normalize. 1st round pick Mikey Romero has 4 walks and only 1 K, indicating that he isn't remotely overmatched in rookie A.

Dare I hope they both are the DP combo by mid '24? As the equivalents of Nomar and Dustin? [Hey this ML season is no longer worth spending any more electrons on at this point]
   21. Darren Posted: September 13, 2022 at 05:45 PM (#6095991)
Hey Jose or Village, how about a minor league thread? Anything to distract us from the Major League team!
   22. Darren Posted: October 06, 2022 at 10:58 AM (#6099346)
I know how much we love to slice and dice JD Martinez's splits here, so here's the latest:

8/31 - End of Season: .290/.355/.560!

Presumably, since his bad stretches indicated that he was toast, this surely means he's back! 3 years/$60 mil!

JD, 32.5 HRs: Under on anything JD Martinez-related. He had a lousy 2020. And his 2021 wasn't that good, folks. He had a white-hot April 2021, and then here were his stats after May 1st last year:

122 G, 522 PAs, 19 HRs, 73 RBIs, 41/126 BB/K, .271/.328/.472

Now, if you put that line on JBJ in 2022, you can deal with it, because you're getting a lot of defense,and JBJ is making less money that Martinez. But to clog up the DH position with a guy who is probably going to struggle to get you a .775 OPS, no defense, etc?


He didn't struggle to put up a 775--he put up a massive 790! (Also, imagine a JBJ with a 790 OPS this year.)

In all seriousness, our pal JDM hit .271/.341/.448 this season, in his usual somewhat streaky fashion. That came out to 1.0 fWAR and 1.1 bWAR in 596 PA. He also punished lefties to the tune of .319/.402/.597. If he can be had for anywhere below 1/$10 mil, I say get him. He wouldn't be the first DH to continue contributing into his late 30s.
   23. Darren Posted: October 06, 2022 at 11:07 AM (#6099348)
Also some fun results here:

Team leader in saves: Barnes comes through and ties Houck and Schreiber!

Devers ends up with 4.4 bWar and 4.9 fWAR--almost exactly on the 4.5 over/under!

Casas is under 59.5 games, but makes a very nice showing.

Whitlock and Houck combine for 9 starts. :(

Mayer doesn't make it to AA but does great in A and very well in A+, so very encouraging on that front.
   24. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: October 06, 2022 at 03:21 PM (#6099403)
If he can be had for anywhere below 1/$10 mil


I would, too, but with the DH coming to the NL, there will be competition. Hopefully no team will offer him more, because @ 10M, he's fine.
   25. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: October 06, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6099409)
11-14 in those games.


They were 13-12. The Yankees won all 6 games. The O's were 6-4. The Sox were 7-2 against TX, KC and Cin.
   26. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: December 17, 2022 at 07:23 PM (#6109922)
I would, too, but with the DH coming to the NL, there will be competition.Hopefully no team will offer him more, because @ 10M, he's fine.

The Dodgers got him for 10M.

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