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1. DarrenThe IQ is weak in this one.
His new mechanics blow and he should scrap them immediately. He's lost everything that made him ridiculously good last year due to the changes. I can't understand why he'd want to make changes in the first place, but then again he's not the sharpest tool in the shed so I guess there's no searching for a good reason.
how do we know that Papelbon can even remember his old mechanics?
You know, I think we make a lot of assumptions about what's going on within the "black box" of the Sox FO and medical system that may not be warranted. Instead of thinking that the people on the inside are dumb, perhaps we should be trying to take their confusing decisions as clues to what is really going on.
Suppose Paps shoulder/arm is in much worse shape than we think: It would explain the need for yet another set of mechanics. If we take this further, then maybe the lack of a longterm contract is posturing from both sides. The Sox did wind up paying Lester well above what anyone thought a player of his service time would get, so it's not like they might not be willing to overpay a bit for a young star. It makes sense to me that the Sox would tell Paps that the only way they will sign him long term because of the risk is at a substantially reduced rate (they have his medicals and probably have a better idea of its long term structural integrity than he does). We never had any idea of the dollar figures being discussed, so Paps' insistence on extracting every last $ is so much PR noise...
I dunno, that doesn't sound nearly as fun.
I don't see how they overpaid for Lester.
But if Pap actually wanted to sign long-term, you'd think his PR would be "Hey, I really want to sign long term with my beloved Red Sox, but they don't seem to like me that much."
I think it went pretty far over what the last contract for a pitcher with similar service time got. That's not to say it's a bad deal, just more than I thought he'd get (I thought Haren's first deal was a good comp and Lester more than doubled it).
His location is simply not right.
Didn't see Pap today, but not surprising. I'm surprised he hasn't been burned before this.
Looking at Gameday, he went to the outside corner on three straight pitches to get to 1-2, then tried to challenge Mauer inside with a fastball. And couldn't get it by him. The jokes about his "straight" fastball don't seem so funny anymore when you see a result like that.
Yeah, but who's usually good enough to fit a fastball like that? Mauer, A-Rod, Pujols, etc.? Its not a big class.
I chalk it's disappearance up to the conspiracy theory I outlined above. My guess is he's been told not to throw it because of the extra strain it puts on his arm. Having not thrown it all that much, he's probably lost the feel for it, so the few that he does throw just aren't nearly the plus pitches they used to be.
I don't think I've seen Paps look "good" all season. He's been good enough, but never good. They have to dump him on some sucker right now, and get something for him while they still can.
He is walking guys way above his career norms. His HR rate has spiked as well (1.3 per 9, vs. 0.5 per 9 last year and 0.8 per 9 in 2007). His K/BB rate in 2008 was 9.63; this year it's 2.18.
We are not getting too down on him. His performance is way, way off from his career norms. I think some slide might have been expected; if it was a modest drop then it would be fair to say he was a victim of his own success. But his indicators are all much worse than a year ago. He's had only 4 1-2-3 innings this season in 20 appearances. He's morphed into heart attack closer territory.
I'd say that's more than reasonable cause for concern. Giving up a HR to Mauer is aggravating but understandable; giving up a long bomb to a complete nobody to cost the Sox a game against the Mets was awful.
He's got to get this #### worked out. I have to wonder if he's having arm problems again. The loss of both command and control, plus the disappearance of the split might indicate that.
Yup
His HR rate has spiked as well (1.3 per 9, vs. 0.5 per 9 last year and 0.8 per 9 in 2007).
That's a total difference of 2 HR's. Which could be randomness, or just a byproduct of having to face more guys per inning due to his walks.
His K/BB rate in 2008 was 9.63; this year it's 2.18.
His K-rate is the same as last year, so it's just walks again. You've trebble counted them now. The walks are what it boils down to. If he can control them, he'll be just fine.
1) he has publicly described how freaked out he was a few years ago when he thought he had severly damaged his pitching arm, and it may be that this is on his mind even more often than the average pitcher;
2) because his negotiating tactics are focused on year-to-year contracts, refusing to consider buying out FA years a la Lester and Pedroia, he has far less financial security than the others. Indeed, he is making a calculated decision that he will make more money in the long run by going year-to-year through free agency, doing well in arbitration, and then cashing in with a K-Rod type contract. If he's healthy through his FA year, then he may be right - but if every year we're hearing about arm-related issues, I can't believe somebody will give K-Rod or Rivera money in a few years...
Yes, you are. He has thrown 21 innings this year. 21. I agree he has some command issues with the fastball so far, but those of you saying he needs to be traded right away or that he is "much worse" than past years had better come up with something better than the raw stats to back up your claims. 21 innings is not a big enough sample on which to hang your hat.
Ok, I'll come up with something better: I've watched him. He hasn't thrown a splitter all year. He didn't throw one towards the end of last year. He has decided he needs a slider. SOMEthing has changed, and is wrong, and his performance has suffered hugely.
He's done as an elite closer, and they should trade him now while some GM still thinks like you do, Joe. There's a window here where we can still foist him off on someone and get value. That window will close very soon.
See, you had me thinking until you went with this. He's done as an elite closer? Just done, that's it, no more? I guess it's not that I disagree with your assessment of his performance, but rather the certainty with which you are projecting him forward.
Nothing personal to you, Fly, but when a guy on a message board says that the guy with the 1.90 career ERA is "done" because he's given up a few extra walks and one more home run over his last 20 or so innings, and because he's not throwing his splitter so much any more, I'm going to call bull - ####. If you're concerned, I get it, but why so sure?
hahahahaa
Did you watch him in the game he lost to the Mets? He looked awesome and was blowing them away. Then that guy gets a flukey pop-up homer, #### happens.
Nothing personal to you, Fly, but when a guy on a message board says that the guy with the 1.90 career ERA is "done" because he's given up a few extra walks and one more home run over his last 20 or so innings, and because he's not throwing his splitter so much any more, I'm going to call bull - ####. If you're concerned, I get it, but why so sure?
Well, sure, my position is overstated to some degree. But I'm extremely concerned, and I'm sure that he's at least got something wrong that will affect him in the near-term because of how he's pitched this year. Is it something that a few months rest could fix? Maybe. Is it something that surgery might fix? Possibly. But I don't think it's a mechanics issue, or a luck issue. I think he has something relatively serious, physically wrong with him.
I posted this in the other thread: I'd be willing to bet that he gets less than 21 saves next season.
He's AAAA filler, as far as I know. Great stats in the minors, Ks alot of guys, but gives up too many walks (5 per 9 in 168 major league innings) and homers (31 in those same 168). He's a 5th starter or a 6th or 7th reliever, unless he's improved somehow (he's 27).
I posted this in the other thread: I'd be willing to bet that he gets less than 21 saves next season.
I will gladly take you up on that - a $10 BB-Ref sponsorship?
Sure. I say he will save 20 or fewer MLB games in the 2010 season, you say 21 or more? Deal.
1) retooling his mechanics, like Tiger Woods "ripping up his swing" several years ago, to take his elite level of play to an even higher level, in which case we're simply watching him in the midst of that retooling, or
2) there are meaningful injury concerns (either near-term or longer-term) that are forcing him to change the way he does business, even if it means he is giving up a little consistency in his velocity and location in order to increase the chances of a long career.
I've watched most of the Sox games over the past few years, and I'm pretty confident we're looking at #2, rather than #1.
Sure. I say he will save 20 or fewer MLB games in the 2010 season, you say 21 or more? Deal.
Deal.
Does he have to save them for the Red Sox? Because right now a Penny/Paps combo for a good bat trade might be something the FO is considering. I wouldn't put it past Theo to at least explore this option.
No, all MLB saves count in the bet.
There's a big problem with this. The second they start shopping Papelbon, an elite closer over the past couple years, the other GMs are going to know something's wrong. There's also the whole problem of trading injured players. There's really no way they're getting a good return for Papelbon, even if trading him wasn't a huge overreaction.
Also, I disagree that he's not throwing the splitter. I've seen at least a few, which I think PitchFX is classifying as sliders for some reason. Speaking of which, here's the breakdown of the speed and frequency of his splitters and changeups, per Fangraphs:
07: Ch 6.3%, 87.0 MPH; SPL 8.2%, 87.3
08: Ch 2.8%, 86.7 MPH; SPL 2.3%, 88.5
09: Ch 6.3%, 87.1 MPH; SPL 0%, N/A
Looking at this chart, the first thing jumps out at me is that Pap doesn't throw a change. The second thing is that his splitter and his phantom Change are almost exactly the same speed. And if you look at the details on the pitch movement, you'll see that the horizontal movement of his 09 "changeup" is -8.6, almost the same as the -8.1 of his 08 splitter. The reason that it's being called a changeup is that it's vertical movement is 5.7 (much more than the 1.5 recorded on the 08 splitters).
To sum up, Pap cut down his splitters between 07 and 08. But he's thrown about the same number this year as he did last year, albeit with a lot more movement. From watching, it looks like the movement has had the effect of making the pitch ineffective. It rarely comes close to being a strike or tempting hitters.
The reality is he's chosen to go year to year to max his value when he could've signed like Pedroia and Lester. There is no way the Sox will pay top dollar for his services when he hits the open market, so maybe getting something in return now is the better option.
Well, we did trade Nomar and Pesky.
That makes no sense-if it had more movement it would tempt more hitters to swing at it, now fewer. Then again I still don't 100% understand what exactly pitchFX means by "movement." The splitters I've seen have looked flat, not diving off the table like they did a couple of years ago.
Maybe Paps was angry he wasn't getting more playing time. Kind of thinking, hey I only get out here like 10 minutes 3 nights a week, this is kind of boring, I'll see if I can extend my time to 20 minutes a night.
Maybe he thought he could get a pay rise by negotiating a per minute on the hill pay scale.
However, and no I didn't read any of the posts above, he did get us out of Oki's mess tonight as I'm sure someone pointed out already.
Date Score Inn IPAug 20 2006 BOS NYY L,5-8 8-9 BS(6) 2.0
Jul 9 2006 BOS @ CHW L,5-6 9-10 BS(3) 2.0
Oh! Had I noticed I wouldn't have posted...
Sure. I say he will save 20 or fewer MLB games in the 2010 season, you say 21 or more? Deal.
Deal.
Anyone have any suggestions for who Fly should sponsor?
And his WHIP is now .001 better than Stephen Strasburg's! I smell a pennant!
Go away, or quit trolling.
Does Sean allow sponsoring minor league player? This is the obvious choice.
As an alternative on his handle, here is a $10 Manny with a steroid problem.
Not trolling, Mr. Beaneater, just strolling.
Good thing you're a Celtics fan...
Okay, I missed that one. I like Irish Catholics because I'm from Boston?
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Jose, I like your suuggestions - Fly, you can choose from the two names in post 65.
It was almost like watching Papelbon from 2007, though his fastball command is still a bit off.
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