I think Verdugo will be traded. I know Bloom isn't Dombrowski, nor Cherington, nor Epstein, but I assume Verdugo will be traded for an injured reliever.

So it is written, so it is said, so it will be done.

but I assume Verdugo will be traded for an injured reliever.

I am waiting with bated breath to see who will be next year's Gagne or Thornburg.

I think Bogaerts is going to Baltimore.

When the Yankees lose Judge to the Giants they will pay all the dollars for Bogaerts.

When the Yankees lose Judge to the Giants they will pay all the dollars for Bogaerts.

Judge is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team, and it’s been reported that his future off-field income would likely be double with the Yankees than with any other team. Hard to believe they couldn’t get a deal done under such mutually beneficial circumstances. More directly to Bogaerts, the Yankees top prospect, Anthony Volpe, is a shortstop. In fact, 5 of their top 14 prospects play the position. If the Yankees didn’t go the free agent route at SS last offseason, there’s even less reason to expect they will do so in the upcoming offseason.

The Phillies are rumored to be quite interested in Bogaerts. The real problem for Red Sox fans is that, like Betts, their own team doesn’t seem very interested in retaining his services, having declined to make a serious offer when he expressed interest in exploring an extension.

I assume Verdugo will be traded for an expensive injured reliever, and two middling prospects.

I have to admit I'm concerned about how wide open the left side of the Yankees infield is.

Judge is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team, and it’s been reported that his future off-field income would likely be double with the Yankees than with any other team. Hard to believe they couldn’t get a deal done under such mutually beneficial circumstances.

All of this is true and mashed a compelling case for Judge staying with the Yankees. But they haven't been able to agree yet, so, I'm not fully convinced.

Clapper, do you think the Yankees would sign Bogaerts and nice him to 3b when Volpe is ready?

O's.

My wife, who is becoming a pretty big football fan after 21 years of marriage, has been watching me enjoy the overwhelming success of New England sports pretty much since we got married in November of 2001. The Patriots would win their first Super Bowl three months later, then my Syracuse Orange would win an NCAA title in 2003, then a World Series in 2004, and then you know the rest of the last 20 years...

Now that the Patriots appear to be just another team, and the Red Sox have mingled a handful of very exciting years over the past 10+ years with a lot of very crappy years, and the Bruins' core in aging, my wife asked me recently what I think of the end of this endless buffet of sports success.

I never thought I would be this way, because I typically love getting "into it" with all of my teams up here, but I have to say that the disappointment of this Red Sox team is not making me terribly upset, nor is the Patriots' struggle to compete in a loaded AFC. I mean, after the last 20 years, it is hard to get really mad if my teams are sort of "meh" for a while. Do I wish all of those titles were spread out a little more evenly over the course of my lifetime? Maybe. But to have my ages 27-47 or whatever just filled with exciting moments like this is pretty awesome.

All of this is to say: The lack of engagement in Red Sox-related pages here at BBTF, or in other places where I typically see content (including Boston-area sports radio) is striking. I suspect many other New England-area sports fans are like me: We are OK with pushing away from the buffet table for a while after 20 years of being engorged with success. I just hope it is a few years like this, and not a generation of balancing out the success of the last generation...

Clapper, do you think the Yankees would sign Bogaerts and nice him to 3b when Volpe is ready?

Bogaerts has enough of a bat that he could move to 3rd, or anywhere there was a need, but the Yankees have Josh Donaldson under contract for 2023, with a $16M option/$8M buyout for 2024. Sure, there may be a way to get around that, but it would probably be costly, and with all those infield prospects in the pipeline I’m doubtful that the Yankees pursue any in free agency, especially someone like Bogaerts who may command big bucks over long years.

The Phillies are rumored to be quite interested in Bogaerts.

This makes a ton of sense for them, and given the deal they gave Schwarber, I'm sure they can flash the cash around for Bogaerts.

I'm pretty much resigned to X leaving. I'm not going to be happy about it, but I've reached the acceptance phase, I guess.

Judge is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team, and it’s been reported that his future off-field income would likely be double with the Yankees than with any other team. Hard to believe they couldn’t get a deal done under such mutually beneficial circumstances.

And yet his team doesn’t seem very interested in retaining his services, having declined to make a serious offer when he expressed interest in exploring an extension. Granted the rumored Judge extension was far more serious than the rumored Bogaerts extension, but I don't think the unseriousness of the Red Sox toward Bogaerts mattered one bit to Judge when he saw the Yankees falling nine digits short.

Granted the rumored Judge extension was far more serious than the rumored Bogaerts extension . . .

Even that is a serious understatement. The Yankees have repeatedly said they want to retain Judge’s services, and they offered (it wasn’t a rumor) a $213.5M/7 year extension before the season. Some, here & elsewhere, even suggested Judge was risking too much by rejecting that offer, but he elected to bet on himself. In contrast, Boston offered to tack on a single $30M year for Bogaerts if he didn’t opt-out of the remaining 3 years at $20M per year. I’m not aware of anyone who thought that was a serious offer anywhere close to what the market would pay in free agency. I’m afraid suggesting the Judge & Bogaerts situations are similar is wishful thinking for Red Sox fans. Unless Boston does a 180° change, Bogaerts is gone, while the Yankees remain the overwhelming favorite to retain Judge, although for more than they previously offered.

You have such amazing access to insider information in both the Yankees and Red Sox front offices. We are blessed that you share your secret concrete information here about all the important negotiations these teams undertake.

Geez, some rather thin-skinned folks here. Everything I said has been widely reported. The Yankees even made their offer to Judge public. Try an internet search.

The Yankees even made their offer to Judge public.

It's a mystery why they did such a thing at the risk of offending their star player. It hasn't had any negative affect yet, but could be concerning.

Everything I said has been widely reported.

We need more than the publicly reported stuff. We're interested in the double-secret reporting that only you have access to.

No, what we really need is more Advanced Wishful Thinking on the part of Strictly Disinterested Yankees haters.

And yet his team doesn’t seem very interested in retaining his services, having declined to make a serious offer when he expressed interest in exploring an extension.

How long ago was that? And how many home runs (and likely MVPs) ago?

It's really not that complicated: The Yankees will re-sign Judge for the simple reason that they have to, unless Steinbrenner wants to be viewed as the Harry Frazee of New York. They may wind up overpaying, but that's a risk they're going to have to take.

I’m afraid suggesting the Judge & Bogaerts situations are similar is wishful thinking for Red Sox fans.

I'm suggesting - no, I'm explicitly saying - they're incredibly different situations, yet both laughably insufficient from the perspective of the respective player. It's wishful thinking that the Yankees falling nine figures short of what Judge is likely to get on the open market was a serious offer that shows they want to retain him. Assuming the reports are true about offers, when Boston made their offer to Betts it ended up being $65 million less than what he ultimately signed for. You characterized that interaction, and that gap, as Boston being uninterested. But, like, double that gap and throw some pinstripes on it and you think it's a sign of earnest interest? You think Judge takes it that way, any more so than Betts? That's precious.

The publication of the Yankees' offer was designed to make *you* think they're serious about signing him. Guess it worked. And, like, maybe they are, but my point is that by your own standards they haven't even begun to show interest. By your own standards on Betts the Yankees have shown they are not very interested. The publication of Boston's offer to Bogaerts was designed to make *everyone* think Bogaerts will be hitting the open market. And, like, he probably is. Hell, they already signed a replacement last year. They are, indeed, completely different situations.

Bless your heart, you're surrounded by the stench of wishful thinking and you think it's not emanating from you.

But again, you're comparing apples (April) to oranges (September and an MVP level season), and not accounting for the enormous backlash the Yankees would get if they let Judge leave at this point.

The bottom line is that Judge took a calculated risk and it's going to pay off Big Time, and he's got the Yankees over a barrel. They're well aware of the loss of revenue they'd suffer without Judge being the feature of offseason marketing. They very well may overpay to keep him around, but they've got no serious alternative.

I mean, the foundation for this line of discussion is I basically said the Yankees will lose Judge and gain Bogaerts, and that this somehow involves wishful thinking for a Red Sox fan.

My point is somewhat in line with what Andy is saying. He says the Yankees *have* to sign Judge. I'm saying if they don't sign Judge they *have* to sign someone to demonstrate they're serious (as well as to, you know, compete), and there's no better way to demonstrate that than to sign Boston's best player. Andy says they might need to overpay for Judge; I'm saying if they don't they're going to overpay for Bogaerts instead.

when Boston made their offer to Betts it ended up being $65 million less than what he ultimately signed for.

Clapper is generally ridiculous but this is a misleading (if numerically accurate!) way of discussing what happened, given the pandemic-related financial uncertainties when Betts ended up signing.

Fully on board with mocking Clapper's concern-trolling, I just don't want to inadvertently let the Red Sox off the hook for the Betts disaster.

Judge is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team

I've never quite understood what this is supposed to mean when people say it. Is this just because the Yankees are a marketing/money generating machine, and therefore all good players are more valuable to them? Because the Yankees are very good and very rich and would definitely still be good without Judge. Wouldn't he be more valuable to the Royals or Orioles or some other smaller market who could benefit from the attendance boost? Wouldn't his several wins each year be worth more to a team with a terrible outfield like the Red Sox?

The only way the Yankees (from a marketing standpoint) could even begin to negate the loss of Judge would be to (somehow) entice Ohtani into a contract, but even that wouldn't quite make up for a player who's come up through the farm system and has become a virtual cult figure among Yankees fans.

And Bogaerts as a replacement would be a complete non-starter, great as he is. The Yankees need outfielders much more than they need shortstops or third basemen. They simply don't have any alternative to giving Judge what he wants.

I've never quite understood what this is supposed to mean when people say it. Is this just because the Yankees are a marketing/money generating machine, and therefore all good players are more valuable to them? Because the Yankees are very good and very rich and would definitely still be good without Judge. Wouldn't he be more valuable to the Royals or Orioles or some other smaller market who could benefit from the attendance boost? Wouldn't his several wins each year be worth more to a team with a terrible outfield like the Red Sox?

Without Judge, try to imagine the Yankees outfield on Opening Day, 2023. It'd be their weakest outfield since the late 1960's, with one solid but unspectacular LFer (Benintendi), one defensive specialist (Cabrera), and then another defensive wizard (Harrison Bader) who's yet to prove that he can handle MLB pitching.

All those things in #125 and #126 have been true for a while, even before his magical 2022 season.

I've never quite understood what this is supposed to mean when people say it. Is this just because the Yankees are a marketing/money generating machine, and therefore all good players are more valuable to them?

Judge is an exceptionally popular player, who boosts attendance & TV ratings, while also selling a lot of merchandise, all of which produces considerable revenue. The Yankees have recognized that, even dedicating a section of the Stadium in his honor (The Judge’s Chambers) & opening the bleachers early so fans could watch his batting practice. Long-term HoF-caliber players are the glue that holds the franchise together from one generation of fans to another - letting one go in their prime, absent extraordinary circumstances, is foolish from both a baseball & marketing perspective. That makes Judge more valuable to the Yankees than any team he theoretically could join for the 2nd half of his career.

All those things in #125 and #126 have been true for a while, even before his magical 2022 season.

But they're doubly true now.** Clapper summarizes it quite well in #128.

** Especially when you consider Stanton's erratic performance and constant injuries

What's tough about the Judge situation is that--at age 30--he's a bit old to get the huge, Top-5-type deal that I'm sure he now expects, but it's also true it's hard to figure out what a fair valuation would be for his age 31-40 seasons, as I'm not sure there's a great comp for him (in terms of his size/position). It's easy to say the Yankees should just pony up and figure it all out later (and this will likely be what happens), but if you're a NON-Yankees team, I'd have a hard time figuring out what to offer--even if I had a real need and (theoretically) enough money in play.

Let me preface this by saying I know they are NOT the same type of player--at all--but when it comes to older players breaking through post-Age 24 season, I always think of Kevin Youkilis, who had an older player skill set (Greek God of Walks) but had his last good year at 32 (3.8 WAR per BBRef) and then fell off a cliff and was out of baseball after age 34.

[Back to the Red Sox] Another possible issue with letting X go is that it signals intent to Devers, and he may not want to stick around for 2-3 years in the wilderness, especially if the extension offer isn't really market-rate FA $.

Over on Fangraphs, our old pal Dan has a new article about Judge's next contract. In it, he includes ZIPS projections for Judge going forward and they are... WILD. He's got him putting up 7.9 WAR next year--I don't think I've ever seen anyone but Trout with a higher number. Overall, it has Judge putting up about 35 WAR over the next decade, leading Dan to conclude that he should get around 8 years, $270 - $290 million. (Great article, read the whole thing.)

I would think at least a few teams would be willing to fork over more like $300 to $350 mil for Judge if they thought he'd hit those numbers.

I'm pretty much resigned to X leaving. I'm not going to be happy about it, but I've reached the acceptance phase, I guess.

I can't get there. I keep telling myself "~insert great player~ is the last great player the Sox are gonna let walk".

I know I keep being wrong. Betts left . . . and yet, I continue to expect them to do the right thing and sign great players to large contracts. We have a couple of them right now. Get the job done, FO. I'm only "rooting for mgmt" insofar as I am rooting for them to make it easy to keep rooting for the Sox. This was a rough year but part of what keeps me coming back is the great players and the hope that I'll continue to enjoy their greatness.

So this thread bums me out with the reality checks, but still, I maintain hope.

When it comes to the Red Sox and their superstars, they should do one of two things:

1) Do what Atlanta is doing all the time now, and sign them really early, buying out FA years. The team takes the risk that the player will get hurt or have a disappointing development. The player loses some potential money at the back end, but gets financially security for life by age 24 or whatever. I prefer this, and I think the Braves are basically saying, "If we sign several young players to contracts like this, some will flop, and some will succeed beyond our best expectations. It will come out in the wash."

2) Do what the Patriots and Belichick did for 20+ years: When a player is closing in on free agency, they make a decision about whether or not they really are going to sign a free market deal to keep them. If they decide a year out that will not, they trade that player aggressively (Logan Mankins, Richard Seymour, Shaq Mason, Sony Michel). They get what they can, deciding a year early is better than a year late. Or, if they like a guy, they generally tell them, "Go out, and see what the best deal you can get is. Then come back, and we'll see if we can match it." For guys like Edelman or Matthew Slater, the players come back, and they match it. For others, like JC Jackson, they said the price is too high, and they leave.

What you never hear the Patriots say in the last 20 years is crap like, "We really want to keep him, we tried to make a fair offer, blah, blah, blah." The Red Sox do that all the time - they are doing it now with Bogaerts and Devers, they did it with Betts. It is a weak look, and it is ineffective.

So does Boston think the Wacha current performance level is a real thing, i.e., worth taking a 2- to 3-year contract flier on? I suspect they'll have competition on that front, but it's not like they have good SP options falling from trees all around Fenway.

I'd like to see Eovaldi back, but on a limited deal, which probably means he's gone.

The thing about dealing Devers is that I'm not sure he gets you back anything with only having 1 year on his contract. Maybe (as was speculated somewhere else) you get someone to take on Sale's salary for Devers, but then you likely get even less in return, poison the fan base, and are looking at 2 years in the wilderness.

There's a lot of work to do, and I'm not at all sure ownership wants to do it in the near term.

What you never hear the Patriots say in the last 20 years is crap like, "We really want to keep him, we tried to make a fair offer, blah, blah, blah." The Red Sox do that all the time - they are doing it now with Bogaerts and Devers, they did it with Betts. It is a weak look, and it is ineffective.

The Patriots lost tons of notable players to free agency: Brady, Law, Wilfork, Welker, Woody, etc. I don't really care about the PR part, especially because the NFL has the built in "Hey! Salary cap!" PR move.

From my perspective, "Go out, and see what the best deal you can get is. Then come back, and we'll see if we can match it." For guys like Edelman or Matthew Slater, the players come back, and they match it. For others, like JC Jackson, they said the price is too high, and they leave
and:
"We really want to keep him, we tried to make a fair offer, blah, blah, blah" are 100% the same.

There's a lot of work to do, and I'm not at all sure ownership wants to do it in the near term.

I think they've known all of this for the entire almost past season. I do wonder what they'll do. I couldn't predict with any confidence what their plan is. Once the team is assembled at the end of spring training, then come the predictions.

When a player is closing in on free agency, they make a decision about whether or not they really are going to sign a free market deal to keep them. If they decide a year out that will not, they trade that player aggressively (Logan Mankins, Richard Seymour, Shaq Mason, Sony Michel). They get what they can, deciding a year early is better than a year late.

Isn't this pretty much exactly what the Red Sox did with Betts?

Isn't this pretty much exactly what the Red Sox did with Betts?

Yes, with a big caveat: Mookie Betts was - to use this example - Tom Brady. They had the mega-franchise player, a guy who they sort of stumbled upon after drafting him. Like Brady, Betts was not a mega-prospect when they drafted him, or even early in his minor-league development. But they obviously knew they had a franchise, generational player, an MVP in his mid-20s, when they traded him.

For almost 20 years, the Patriots figured out that you can eventually replace, in the name of managing resources, almost any player - but if you are lucky enough to get the franchise guy, you do whatever it takes to keep them.

They eventually parted ways with Randy Moss, Richard Seymore, Vince Wilfork, Corey Dillon, Wes Welker, Ty Law, Darrelle Revis, Malcolm Butler, Gronk..and eventually, even a 42-year-old Brady. But they knew as long as they kept the centerpiece guy, they were in the conversation.

The Red Sox could have blown away Betts, offered him a 12/$360m or something, and it would have been done. Devers and Bogaerts are very, very good - but they aren't Betts.

The Red Sox could have blown away Betts, offered him a 12/$360m or something, and it would have been done.

That's not quite true. Before the trade, the talk was 12/400 type of thing. The Dodgers got lucky because Covid hit, there was a lot of uncertainty and they basically tacked on 2/60 to the end of the Red Sox 10/300 offer and got the deal done as no one had any idea when they would start playing again. I wouldn't say they low-balled him, but Mookie definitely gets more money if Covid doesn't happen.

The story was that they offered around 10/300 and he countered with 12/420. 12/360 may have gotten it done (though I don't think it would have) but it would not have blown Mookie away. Covid likely played some role in his decision, but Mookie has also since said that if Boston had made him that offer, he would have accepted (I also have a hard time believing this, since the deal he got was worth essentially 12/306).

1) Do what Atlanta is doing all the time now, and sign them really early, buying out FA years. The team takes the risk that the player will get hurt or have a disappointing development. The player loses some potential money at the back end, but gets financially security for life by age 24 or whatever. I prefer this, and I think the Braves are basically saying, "If we sign several young players to contracts like this, some will flop, and some will succeed beyond our best expectations. It will come out in the wash."

To be fair, they tried to do this with Mookie--multiple times!

I can't find the exact post, but somewhere in our little world here, Bivens predicted exactly what would happen with this season--the Sox would finish a little under .500 because their pitching would let them down. You were right, I was wrong. Kudos to you, sir!

One more bright spot on this otherwise kind of lousy season: Triston Casas! He showed great discipline despite having a rough start to his Major League career. He's now got 17 BB, 17 K, hitting .213/.385/.475, with 144 wRC+, and 0.6 fWAR. It is going to be fun rooting for this guy!

75-83, and they look like they won't win another game this season. They've been this bad before in recent times and have come back to be competitive, but I think their roster was more stable than it is today. Bello looks great the first time through a lineup, and then he turns to crap. Maybe he'll figure it out. Right now, the rotation looks anything but set for next year.

[stares out window and waits for spring]

75-83, and they look like they won't win another game this season.

Aha, you were wrong on this prediction! :)

What a blah season this was. From their high point of 42-31 (which many noted at the time was at the end of a stretch of weak opponents), they went 36-53 the rest of the way...and that's including the meaningless three-game sweep of Tampa to end the season.

Things that I felt better about at the end of the season than I did at the beginning:
- Bello has a chance at being a very good starting pitcher, and made the jump pretty well.
- Casas, after a tough first week, showed why he will be a very good major-league hitter at a position (1B) that has killed the Red Sox the last few years.
- Cutter Krawford may be a useful pitcher - maybe even a back of the rotation starter.
- If Story is going to be the second baseman the next three years, he will be a useful player. Maybe not worth the money they're paying him, but still a good player.
- They sort of addressed their catching situation for the next few years in a pretty smart way, with McGuire and Wong. Very low cost, team control for a few more years, relatively young, acquired for very little (in the case of McGuire).
- Some evidence that Barnes may be salvageable.
- A lot of money is coming off the books, for better or worse (Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Martinez, Vazquez, Bradley, etc)
- There are a number of guys in the minors who are making progress, including Mayer and Bleis, who have a real chance of being blue-chippers.

Things that I feel no better, or even worse, about after the season:
- Our ability to keep Devers, or Bogaerts
- Our outfield situation. Verdugo is starting to make money, and I think he pretty much "is what he is" - a slightly above-average hitter, and an average defensive fielder and runner. I was much more excited about him two years ago. He's...fine. It looks like another year of Hernandez in CF, which is...fine...but has nothing to do with building the next great Red Sox team. And right field continues to be a mess. Maybe they put Ceddanne Rafaela in CF at some point in 2023, move Hernandez to RF, and you've got a heck of a defense out there. Eh.
- I was hoping Story would be better at the plate than this.
- Chris Sale had another year where he simply can't stay healthy. You can't go into 2023 expecting 25 starts. It is a huge impediment for building this team, because they sort of have to act like they have an ace entering Spring Training next year...and then sign a bunch of guys as insurance.
- They don't know what to do with Whitlock, and it is not clear they know what to do with Houck.
- The rest of the bullpen is very difficult to project going into next year.

Things I don't know what to think:
- The rotation going into 2023. Pivetta looked unhittable for a chunk of the year, then unable to pitch 5 innings in under 100 pitches the rest of the year. He is really, really durable, and he is still cheap - that makes him very valuable for 2023. Bello is obviously in the rotation, although we should expect highs and lows as he develops. If we pick up the Paxson option, then I presume he is a starter in 2023. Sale will start the year in the rotation, until he tears his ACL while playing a board game or something. Kutter Crawford deserves a shot at the back of the rotation. I think somebody will pay Wacha more than Boston is willing to pay. And if Rich Hill is willing to come back on an affordable one-year deal (which he all but begged to do in the Globe this week), then bring him in, too.

Basically, I feel like the team enters this off-season knowing they have real holes at the major-league level, a fast-improving minor-league system that isn't quite ready to fill a lot of those holes yet, and a salary situation that is close to a "reset" to sign a couple of impact free agents, or retain Devers and/or Bogaerts.

A lot of money is coming off the books, for better or worse (Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Martinez, Vazquez, Bradley, etc)

Come on, don't use "etc" to refer to David Price.

So if the rotation next year were with the pieces they have - which likely won't be the case, but let's assume it for now - then Pivetta is their #1, right? Like, we can pretend that Sale is the #1 kind of like we used to pretend that Jed Lowrie was a starting position player. Because of his health we have to treat him like a #5, the first person you replace. I think that makes Pivetta #1, which for reasons SBPT says above isn't really the shot of confidence you'd like. Maybe we get a Rick Porcello Cy Young year out of him, but mostly we'd be fortunate to get any other Rick Porcello year - which isn't necessarily bad, just not #1 caliber. But if Pivetta is #1 and Sale is #5, who are the others? Is it Paxton / Whitlock / Bello? Or is Whitlock now destined for the pen while Crawford moves into the rotation?

And, like, I'd like to see more of Crawford and Bello and Whitlock as starters in 2023. I'd like to see Paxton. But is this a competitive team with that rotation? Don't they need a significant upgrade there? I don't think a rotation of five #4 starters is a great plan, and that means a couple of them needs to play a LOT better or they need to be replaced with someone who can produce far superior results.

Basically, I feel like the team enters this off-season knowing they have real holes at the major-league level, a fast-improving minor-league system that isn't quite ready to fill a lot of those holes yet, and a salary situation that is close to a "reset" to sign a couple of impact free agents, or retain Devers and/or Bogaerts.

I might have my timing off, but it seems like this is the right year to spend. The minors are starting to bear actual fruit with Casas and Bello, and they'll have a couple more players on the way every year. To bridge the gap between the current & past team and the future team they need a handful of competent players. I suspect this will happen more with trades than free agent signings - I've already mentioned I think Verdugo will be traded - but they probably don't have a choice for upgrading the rotation except to spend.

And mind you, when I talk about filling positions via trade and mention Verdugo, I'm not saying they're trading Verdugo to get someone far better. Goodness no. The greatest value they will get trading Verdugo is the roster spot which they can fill otherwise. They're more likely to get someone of value by trading away Whitlock and others. As I said before, Verdugo will be traded for an injured reliever.

Aha, you were wrong on this prediction! :)

I mean, they looked like they had quit against Toronto.

Here are things I was right about: 78-82 wins. The pitching sucks....not having a true ace/stopper really hurt this team. It put tons of pressure on guys who are decent enough, but not #1's (Eovaldi, Pivetta).


Still hoping for Paxson to contribute is as worrisome as hoping for Sale to regain his 28 year old self. I say go hard after Rodon. And Judge, because that OF is weak.

78 wins isn't terrible. It's mediocre. Let's say 90 wins is good. 12 wins isn't all that much to make up. They need to add players who will give them 12 WAR, combined. OK, subtract Bogaerts and they need to make up another 6.6 in WAR. Is that how it works? at 7M per win, the need to add about 140 million in payroll to compete (minus the money coming off of the books...I'm to lazy to look it up).

LET'S GO, CHAIM!!

Here are things I was right about: 78-82 wins. The pitching sucks....not having a true ace/stopper really hurt this team. It put tons of pressure on guys who are decent enough, but not #1's (Eovaldi, Pivetta).

I know! I was just taking the piss because you'd been so exactly right about how this team would finish, even when they were riding high!


On the rotation, I agree that you can't consider Sale the #1 but I wouldn't consider him the #5 either, more like a #3-4? Even that doesn't really work. Biggest hole right now has got to be #1 starter and maybe even a #2.

I'd love a healthy Sale in the rotation, or even a guy who pitches 3/4 of the season (as long as his missed months like June and July, not September/October). Rodon will be 30 and is available. Get him for 5 to 8, front load the contract, whatever. They have to look at FAs, unless they would trade Devers and/or Casas. I don't think trading them gets them what they need to compete next year, so, I'd like to see them sign an MVP winner and/or a Cy Young contender.

I'd consider Sale to be the #5 because the #6 starter will be pitching in his place most of the year. Like, you'll get #1 to #3 quality out of him when he pitches, but he'll miss enough time that the slot he's in will be equivalent to a #5.

I am keeping the shorthand for the rotation as it stands today as "five #4 starters". Pivetta appears better than a #4 because he had a great start to this season, but, I mean, on a championship team he's like 2004 Derek Lowe, or 2018 Eduardo Rodriguez. And they were roughly #4 starters on those teams. One or two of them in a rotation is a good thing. Five won't win a championship.

Sure, they could pick up Rich Hill again and that would be fun. But is he enough of an improvement on a #4 starter? No. Can they get him cheap? Not nearly as cheap as they pay Whitlock, Crawford, and Bello. IMO they need three upgrades on the rotation, which means 3 people need to be elsewhere. "Elsewhere" could be the bullpen, or Worcester, or traded.

I don't think trading them gets them what they need to compete next year, so, I'd like to see them sign an MVP winner and/or a Cy Young contender.

I think it's somewhat rare to trade to get a #1 or #2 starting pitcher. We were spoiled with Pedro, and Schilling, and Beckett, and Sale; but I think free agency is generally the fastest and most realistic path to upgrading at the front of the rotation. The middle of the rotation can be solved with trades, as can the outfield & bullpen IMO.

Definitely the bullpen can. It seems like every year there's a crop of good relievers that pitched elsewhere the year before.

So Rodon looks like the best option, to me.

edit....if they're gonna throw Bello and Whitlock into the rotation they'll need an ace to stay in the hunt. Those guys (Bello especially) have a lot to prove. Bello looks great the first time through a lineup. I'm not confident he's ready to go 2X through. And Whitlock just had hip surgery. I hope it fixed him. We'll see.