I know there’s going to be a BUT BUT BUT THEY’RE NOT GOING TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS in there, and you’re right. I guess that means you can make your own plans for October. The White Mountains are exquisite that time of year, go up and take a hike, breathe some fresh air, snack on some moose jerky or whatever. But it’s spring right now, and the team you root for is doing OK. And it’s OK to admit that.

You are correct, there's nothing earth-shattering about the Sox missing the playoffs this season. Quite frankly, I completely expected it since about July of last year. BUT BUT BUT, how does the team get better NEXT year?

1B - Casas has not shown he's the answer. Still PLENTY of time to do so.
2B - ??? ####### black hole.
SS - ??? See comment above.
3B - Devers is a lock
DH - Turner for the last year of his deal...yay? Then a gaping hole in '25.
C - McGuire apparently can hit, but can't throw out Bengie Molina. Wong can't hit, but can throw out Boston Carl Crawford. Apparently this equals avg at the position, so pretty good I guess.
RF - Verdugo appears to be settling in to a pretty decent player. No complaints from me, he's still in arb which means he will be a deal (I mean except the obviously overpaid guaranteed future HOF Mookie Betts who happens to be a SS now with his completely team ruining arbitration salary)
CF - ??? Duran is for real this time? Ceddane proves himself in the minors?
LF - Still time for Yoshida to prove he's AS caliber.

Starting P (stealing from the Emoji thread):

Sale - maybe he's back? - Maybe.
Pivetta - solid as usual - OK
Whitlock - a very nice start, they need to see if he can start long term - Yes
Houck - best starter this year, needs to start - Incredible potential
Bello - needs a chance to prove he's a starter - See Houck, Tanner
Kluber - incredibly bad but will expect to start - Has an option for '24 - will be shocked if he's around
Paxton - has never pitched in relief - don't let the door hit you on the way out

All leads to a young, but potentially good rotation, with a solid veteran helping out. They will need to add depth though.

Bullpen - who the #### knows, I certainly don't.

So..1B, C, LF, P still need to prove themselves, but the potential is there. 3B is great, RF is acceptable, DH may be acceptable (but not really an asset) for '24. 2B and SS are clear needs, CF probably is.

I guess typing all that out is better than I expected. We shall see how those prove themselves positions go.

And to add - DH, RF, Px2 all need to be replaced in '25, so any spending in '24 need to take that into account.

2B - ??? ####### black hole.
SS - ??? See comment above.

Obviously the plan is for Story to be at one of those spots.

Still time for Yoshida to prove he's AS caliber.

Will he be closer, results-wise, to Ichiro or Rusney Castillo?

Obviously the plan is for Story to be at one of those spots.

Right, legit forgot about him.

Well today Yoshida was more Williams then either of the guys mentioned in #3.

The team is scoring 5.7 RPG, there is no way for that continue. As mentioned in 1, the lineup is full of holes. If it all goes well: Devers, Verdugo, Yoshida and Turner will hit. Hopefully Story comes back and hits, but then you still have some huge holes there. 1B, 2B and SS are a sucking vortex right now, no team that aspires to be decent can survive like that.

It could be really fun though to see Houck, Whitlock and Bello develop, you could end up with a really nice, young set of SP.

After series #7:


Baltimore: 13-5 against non-Boston. (Boston went 2-1)
Pittsburgh: 13-7 against non-Boston. (0-3)
Detroit: 7-10 against non-Boston. (3-0)
Tampa Bay: 15-3 against non-Boston. (0-4)
Anaheim: 10-8 against non-Boston. (3-1)
Minnesota: 11-8 against non-Boston. (2-1)
Milwaukee: 14-5 against non-Boston. (2-1)

Opponents total record against non-Boston: 83-46

Boston's record now: 12-11.

The team is scoring 5.7 RPG, there is no way for that continue. As mentioned in 1, the lineup is full of holes. If it all goes well: Devers, Verdugo, Yoshida and Turner will hit. Hopefully Story comes back and hits, but then you still have some huge holes there. 1B, 2B and SS are a sucking vortex right now, no team that aspires to be decent can survive like that.

Just as our guys hitting over their heads are going to come back to Earth, our struggling hitters are likely to revert to normal. Arroyo has been a perfectly fine hitter and fielder at 2B for the past couple of years and he's 28. You're assuming Story comes back and hits, so doesn't he fill the hole at SS? At 1B, I hope Casas comes around and he's got the pedigree, but that's a worry for sure.

Fangraphs projects these opponents to end with a collective 495-477 record, or .509 win percentage.

Update on this one:

Fangraphs projects these opponents to end with a collective 581-553 record, or .512 win percentage. That's an 83-win team.

The Red Sox are 12-11 against those teams, a .522 winning percentage. Their run differential of 132 runs scored vs. 121 allowed results in a .543 winning percentage.

This is not an amazing result. It's likely not enough to change anyone's opinions about how good this team is. But it's a good start to the season.

Arroyo has been a perfectly fine hitter and fielder at 2B for the past couple of years and he's 28. You're assuming Story comes back and hits, so doesn't he fill the hole at SS?

I'm not convinced Arroyo will stay healthy to play even 2/3 of a season. I assume Trevor comes back and plays 2B as there has been speculation regarding this throwing arm and the strength of it. I know the Sox were never going to pay Xander the amount he received, but geez if they can just fill the SS role with a half decent player, the rest could sort of fall into place as you move Kike back to CF and the OF(though not quite Rice, Lynn and Evans), could be decent. I really hope Casas just can be an average 1B as Hosmer over at the Cubs is really rubbing salt into the 1B would right now. I mean, Hosmer, c'mon.

Opponents total record against non-Boston: 83-46

This is all kinds of amazing, isn't it? I mean, their non-Tampa opponents have a .613 win percentage, which is the equivalent of 99 wins in 162 games. The two truly awful teams in the AL thus far have been Oakland and Kansas City, and Boston hasn't faced either of them yet - nor will they until just before the all-star break. Boston's schedule is unpleasant to say the least, and they are holding up well so far. They would be tied for first if they were in the NL West.

Sometimes, April results are meaningful. Most of the time, April results are meaningless. Many years, teams have fast starts, and falter. What happens with the Red Sox remains to be seen. As I say every year: the season is 162 games long, with an emphasis on "long". Lots can happen.

I like the young pitching. I'm hopeful about Sale, as I said a few weeks ago, before he pitched a decent game. Pivetta is a decent #5.

Imagine if the Red Sox become buyers at the deadline! They need a couple or three bats. I'm resigned to getting very little offense from C, if they add offense at SS and the OF.

The young pitching is exciting. I am hoping they will soon be good enough to be owned in fantasy leagues.

It feels like the team is about what most people expected, taken as a whole - but:

1) It is a very small sample size. Don't forget about last year, when the team went from 14-22 on May 17th to 42-31 on June 26th. They ended up 78-84, and were honestly a little worse than that. Obviously, it can work the other way, as well.

2) I say "taken as a whole", because the team's individual performances have been all over the map. The season is still young enough that Duvall's Ruthian start still ticks the overall offensive stats artificially up a bit. Casas has been pretty much worst-case scenario bad; Devers has been pretty much what we'd expect (which is awesome!); Verdugo has been career-best kind of good...but there is a chance that he has improved; Yoshida has been pretty awful, but the season is young enough that one huge day brought his OPS+ all the way back to 100; Arroyo has been awful; Sale has been at times dominant, and other times awful, etc. My point is, with the exception of a few guys that are playing pretty much exactly at the level that you'd expect (Devers, Pivetta, maybe Turner), much of the team is (probably) playing over their head, or way below their established expectations. That leaves the season going forward as highly volatile.

3) The Sox have won five of their seven series - and yet are only one game above .500, because they were swept in the two series (Tampa and Pittsburgh) they lost. The Detroit series that they swept (they won the series 24-9) pretty much crosses out the Tampa series, and most of the other series were competitive. I think the Milwaukee series this weekend may be their most impressive collective performance yet - on the road, against a good team, with none of their three starters being lights-out...and yet they still won two of three.

Friday night and Sunday were good examples of what I think most New Englanders are doing with their "sports attention span" right now: I was a restaurant Friday night with some of my family, and we picked a place where we could see the Bruins and Celtics games (which were pretty much on at the same time). The Red Sox were also on at the same time, and the place was full of New England sports fans, and out of 30 TVs at the restaurant, maybe four of them were on the Red Sox. Tatum, Brown, Bergeron, Marchand - plenty of jerseys and tshirts on of those guys, and no Red Sox attire on at the restaurant.

Then yesterday, when I doing some "low brainpower" work at home, we had the Red Sox on for 30 minutes, and then went straight to the Bruins playoff game, followed by the Celtics playoff game. The Red Sox game was an afterthought, for obvious reasons. This week, Celtics Game 5 is Tuesday night; Bruins game 5 is Wednesday night; and then the NFL draft is Thursday and Friday night, and most of Saturday during the day. Early season Red Sox just can't compete with that.

Given that both teams look like they could be playing deep into May or even June, this gives the Red Sox a chance to figure out what they are, and when the sports market comes back to them in June, if they are competitive, it is a likable team, young guys are getting some chances to play (especially pitchers), and I think it could be an enjoyable summer of baseball watching.

BUT BUT BUT, how does the team get better NEXT year?

We usually post that thread around October or November. Sometimes August depending on how the season goes.

The Red Sox game was an afterthought, for obvious reasons.

It's April and two* local teams are in the playoffs this month. Of course they're going to be an afterthought. Yesterday I was out in the rain planting an apple tree in my yard, and building a protective cage around it to keep the deer from munching the leaves every time they grow in, as they did to the pear tree last year. By the time I thought about checking on the game they were already done - a more frequent occurrence for me this year given the shorter duration of games. It happens.

*Four, if you live in CT and followed college basketball and college hockey.

It's April and two* local teams are in the playoffs this month. Of course they're going to be an afterthought. Yesterday I was out in the rain planting an apple tree in my yard, and building a protective cage around it to keep the deer from munching the leaves every time they grow in, as they did to the pear tree last year. By the time I thought about checking on the game they were already done - a more frequent occurrence for me this year given the shorter duration of games. It happens.

I've had good luck with a homemade spray - gallon of water, cup of milk, couple of eggs, couple of cloves of garlic, cayenne pepper to taste. Blend it all, let it ferment in the sun for a day at least, then spray onto whatever you want protected. Stinks when wet, but the smell goes away once it dries.

The young pitching is exciting. I am hoping they will soon be good enough to be owned in fantasy leagues.

If any of your team's pitchers are not widely owned in fantasy leagues, it's because that pitcher sucks.

Your mom is widely owned in fantasy leagues.

Last night's loss to Baltimore was a very good microcosm of the team's strengths and weaknesses:

The team lost 5-4 to (probably) the 2nd-worst team in the division, whose starter did not pitch well last night. It's the kind of game the team probably needs to win if it is going to be an 86-win wild card team, rather than a 79-win team.

Sale was hit pretty hard, only pitched five innings, was given a 4-0 leading entering the bottom of the 2nd and couldn't protect it.
The bottom of the lineup (Hernandez, Casas, Duran, Wong, and Chang) went a combined 1-for-16 with two walks (Casas hit a solo HR).

On the other hand, Yoshida went 3-for-3 with a walk; Devers hit another HR; and the bullpen, though running on fumes and using the back of the depth chart, followed Sale with three scoreless inning, giving the team a chance to win.

And that's the team in a nutshell, at least for now. They are very weak at 2B, SS, and CF. When Wong plays, they give up another bat at C...but appear to gain a lot of defense (Wong threw out another runner last night). And if Sale is not very good, it will be hard for the team to get above .500.

But Yoshida might be very good; Devers is awesome; Verdugo and Turner are contributing; and the bullpen appears to be very good.

And Casas? I believe in him, and we have no other option at 1B, really: We've got to ride that out for the year, if that's what it takes. If the team is going to be sustainably successful in the next few years, we need to hit on guys like Casas and Bello. The organization lacks depth in quality prospects, so the ones we have...need to hit.

If either Sale had been good, or if the bottom five of the lineup wasn't so bad, we win the game last night. But if neither happens...we're going to lose most of those games.

The team lost 5-4 to (probably) the 2nd-worst team in the division, whose starter did not pitch well last night. It's the kind of game the team probably needs to win if it is going to be an 86-win wild card team, rather than a 79-win team.

This is a little unfair, no? The Orioles are now 15-7, tied for the second best record in the AL. That's not likely to last but they're probably around a .500 team by the end of the year. And they were at home. There's nothing wrong with losing a 5-4 game to that team, even if you're a 95-win team.

The problem is Sale. If Sale's not at least a good pitcher (a #2 or so) this team has practically no chance at being over .500. The one caveat I'll add is that if Yoshida keeps getting 2+ hits per game, he may be able to make up for Sale.

The sample is still tiny but Yoshida's defensive stats are pretty interesting.

RTot: -37/1200 in
Rdrs: -21/1200 in
UZR/150: -34.6/150 games
Statcast: 0 OOA, +2% success rate added

Raffy Watch, 16 XBH in 22 games, 119 pace. A 50:50 is well within the realm of possibility. Hi Albert Belle.

I figured Sale's ERA would eventually normalize given his high k rate, but he struck out zilch last night.

Raffy Watch, 16 XBH in 22 games, 119 pace. A 50:50 is well within the realm of possibility. Hi Albert Belle.

I thought of your Raffy XBH watch when then mentioned on the broadcast last night that he leads the league in XBH.


Speaking of the broadcast, how's everyone like the new crew? O'Brien has become sloppy in addition to being annoying. He seems to not notice some stuff he should, use the wrong terms, and adds inflection to his voice randomly to make rather mundane things sound important. Youk seems fine, I don't enjoy Merloni's constant yammering (though maybe he'll adjust to TV), and Middlebrooks is pretty bland but doesn't actively detract from the broadcast much.

For all of my complaints about his defense and conditioning, Raffy looks great in the field so far this year. Some very nice plays last night and overall the numbers say he's been very good.

The team lost 5-4 to (probably) the 2nd-worst team in the division, whose starter did not pitch well last night. It's the kind of game the team probably needs to win if it is going to be an 86-win wild card team, rather than a 79-win team.


This is a little unfair, no? The Orioles are now 15-7, tied for the second best record in the AL. That's not likely to last but they're probably around a .500 team by the end of the year. And they were at home. There's nothing wrong with losing a 5-4 game to that team, even if you're a 95-win team.

The problem is Sale. If Sale's not at least a good pitcher (a #2 or so) this team has practically no chance at being over .500.

I think I was too glib there...it's baseball, so the best teams are going to lose 40% of their games, and the worst teams are going to win 40%, so each game result should be taken with that grain of salt.

That said, the difference between the Red Sox going 75-87 (which is around the bottom of a reasonable projection, IMO) and 86-76 (which is about the top of reasonable, IMO) is a handful of variables, two of which were on display last night:

- If Sale is like this most of the year (or if he simply breaks down again, and doesn't pitch at all), then I'm with you: this is a sub-.500 team. He's pitched five times: Three times he was pretty awful; once he was adequate, and once he was dominant. The team is 3-2 in those starts, but that is because they've average just under 6 runs a game in his five starts. They only won one of those starts because Adam Duvall had two HRs, a 3B, and a 2B, with 6 RBI; the rest of the offense that day was below average. In the "adequate" start, they won because Adam Duvall hit a 3-run bomb to break open a tie. If you have Babe Ruth in your lineup (which is what Duvall was for the first eight games), then you can survive a lot of weaknesses. That's obviously not a plan for success unless you have Babe Ruth (the Angels have two of the closest things to Babe Ruth you can have in your lineup, and they still can't get to the playoffs because of the rest of the roster!).

- The weaknesses of the lineup just water down the strengths of the lineup in such obvious ways. This morning, Red Sox social media is wondering how an injury to Yu Chang will impact the Red Sox. I appreciate the defense and pair of home runs from Chang, but if you are wondering how you'll deal with the loss of Yu Chang, then you've got a problem! Last night, the bottom five guys in the lineup went 1-for-16. Hernandez, Chang, Arroyo, Wong, Tapia, Refsnyder...we're asking way too many guys to play roles that are above their pay grade.

I think this is what frustrates Red Sox fans: How on Earth can we be in year four of the Bloom farm system rebuild, and have somehow gone over the luxury tax threshold last year, and have one of the higher payrolls again this year...and still have such glaring holes on the major-league roster; such a lack of quality prospects at the upper levels of the system; and continue to try to fill those holes with spare parts (typically available on short-term deals because they are oft-injured or older)?

I think this is what frustrates Red Sox fans: How on Earth can we be in year four of the Bloom farm system rebuild, and have somehow gone over the luxury tax threshold last year, and have one of the higher payrolls again this year...and still have such glaring holes on the major-league roster; such a lack of quality prospects at the upper levels of the system; and continue to try to fill those holes with spare parts (typically available on short-term deals because they are oft-injured or older)?

It takes time to develop a farm system. That's not to give Bloom a pass but I was thinking recently that part of the issue for the Sox is that the Cherington/Dombrowski years were not particularly good at development either. There are some players in there but it's not a small amount. Mookie was drafted in 2011, he reached the majors mid-season in 2014. In the Bloom timeline that's a player drafted in 2020 reaching the Majors this year and of course 2020 was a completely lost season for minor leaguers and that year and 2021 was a year of guys catching up as much as anything else. I think Mayer (2021) and Yorke (2020) could be regulars at some point next year and if that happens I think we should feel good.

There is also some frustration for me about HOW they are deploying the guys they have. I'm reaching Swihart levels with David Hamilton but I don't get why he hasn't gotten a sniff. He is an every day shortstop who has raked this year and been cromulent before that and has elite level speed in a league where speed is bigger weapon than it has been.

Again, none of this is to absolve Bloom of some pretty significant failings. I'm still bullish on Casas. Last night was exciting I think, not just that he hit a homer but that it was a first pitch homer and I feel like Wong has a job to do in some respect. Even if he's a backup catcher that has some value. Last night was of course an avoidable loss but this is a .500 team and those games are going to happen. It's kind of my biggest frustration with Bloom on display. He has almost been determined to build teams with no fall backs. Last year going with Dalbec at first and Bradley in right was fine, but to do so without being prepared for the very reasonable possibility that one or both would flop was just foolhardy. Similarly going into a season with Adam Duvall and Christian Arroyo as key starters and no practical plan for when (not if in either guys case) they get hurt is a mistake.

I think you've hit on the obvious fix for this team: they just need to acquire Babe Ruth. :)

I agree with your larger point that it is frustrating for the team, so far into this rebuild (or whatever it is) to still have such big holes. In the case of Chang, though, I think the concern about his loss is that it's another loss in the middle infield, where they've already lost Story and Mondesi (shocking!), and seen Hernandez struggle with the position. I don't think you'd see this kind of buzz if Tapia or Refsnyder went down.

What's the good news? Losing Chang means an opportunity to see what Enmanuel Valdez (a .500 career hitter in MLB!), or David Hamilton (.338/.397/.600 with a 11 SB in AAA) can do.

There is also some frustration for me about HOW they are deploying the guys they have. I'm reaching Swihart levels with David Hamilton but I don't get why he hasn't gotten a sniff. He is an every day shortstop who has raked this year and been cromulent before that and has elite level speed in a league where speed is bigger weapon than it has been.

He had very nice projections even before his big year this year. The folks over at SoxProspects seem to think his defense is pretty bad. Fangraphs thinks his range is ok but his arm isn't great. ???

It takes time to develop a farm system. That's not to give Bloom a pass but I was thinking recently that part of the issue for the Sox is that the Cherington/Dombrowski years were not particularly good at development either. There are some players in there but it's not a small amount. Mookie was drafted in 2011, he reached the majors mid-season in 2014. In the Bloom timeline that's a player drafted in 2020 reaching the Majors this year and of course 2020 was a completely lost season for minor leaguers and that year and 2021 was a year of guys catching up as much as anything else. I think Mayer (2021) and Yorke (2020) could be regulars at some point next year and if that happens I think we should feel good.

Good point about 2020 being a lost year of development. Overall, I don't think the expectation was that he would build the farm into a top system within 4 years, but that within that time, he'd have the farm back to being pretty good (mission accomplished IMHO), he'd clear off the old bad contracts (done), and used that savings to add top talent (didn't happen).

Good point about 2020 being a lost year of development.

They also had no #1 pick in 2019. It's hard to develop top talent when you don't draft top talent.

Your mom is widely owned in fantasy leagues.

I'm aware.

They also had no #1 pick in 2019. It's hard to develop top talent when you don't draft top talent.

Wander Franco was signed as a FA.

Wander Franco was signed as a FA.

... in 2017.

.... By the Rays.... When Bloom was with them

Wander Franco was signed as a FA.

... in 2017.

...when Chaim Bloom was Senior VP of Baseball Ops for the team that signed him.

EDIT: Dammit, Darren!

I guess you're both missing the point: 1st round draft picks don't all pan out, and often, real talent is drafted in later rounds, or as FAs.

I don't know if Bloom has the magic touch or not. We'll see. But it will have little to do with when they draft.


edit...fun fact: Roger Clemons was drafted in the 12th round. By the Mets.

I didn't know any of that.

Heck, I don't even know who Roger Clemons is.

You didn't know that first round picks flame out as often as they pan out?

No, I had no idea. Nor did I know that some players are not subject to the draft.

That's cute. In the first place, I was responding to VI's comment about it being hard to develop top talent etc etc

edit...fun fact: Roger Clemons was drafted in the 12th round. By the Mets.

And then he was drafted two years later in the 1st round. By the Red Sox.

Picking high in the first round is very clearly an indicator of future success.

Average career war for drafted and signed players who entered MLB from 2005-2015
Round Average Career WAR Number of Players
1 6.93 377
2 3.30 177
3 2.11 142
4 2.06 110
5 2.22 117
6 1.52 99
7 2.80 71
8 3.28 62
9 2.38 63
10 1.78 55
11 1.72 49
12 1.49 45
13 1.41 51
14 0.51 39
15 1.16 29
16 1.49 34
17 1.68 26
18 1.15 28
19 1.68 26
20 1.34 23
Total 3.24 1,623

It's interesting that the 8th round players were twice as successful as the 6th round players.

That's cute. In the first place, I was responding to VI's comment about it being hard to develop top talent etc etc

I know. But your response in no way refuted his point: having no first round pick makes drafting harder.

Why those endpoints? (I'm not questioning the results or the methodology...just wondering why you don't use a larger sampling.)

It's interesting that the 8th round players were twice as successful as the 6th round players.

I bet there's inherent selection bias - talent being equal guys from the 6th round are going to be promoted over guys from the 8th round. Leads to more shitty 6th rounders making MLB, diluting the achievements of the ones who are contributors. I would bet the top 62 guys from the 6th round have a higher average WAR than the 62 that made if from the 8th.



Why those endpoints? (I'm not questioning the results or the methodology...just wondering why you don't use a larger sampling.)


Just happened to be one of the top results on google.

Why don't you provide some data, Biv?

Why don't you provide some data, Biv?

Too busy. I'll accept, in good faith, the research others present.

Too busy. I'll accept, in good faith, the research others present.

I'll drop it after this but you don't usually accept them. Above, you responded to VI's point that not having a 1st round pick makes it harder to acquire top talent by pointing out that there are other ways to get talent. We all know that. And it doesn't refute what he said. And you make broad statements like saying the Red Sox have faced subpar pitching without actually backing it up. It all makes it hard to have these discussions with you.

On another note, there was some talk about Baltimore picking up on Sale tipping pitches somehow. Cora: "It's more about, you have to check what's going on... It's a big league pitcher throwing 97 (mph) with a great slider and a good changeup, with two swings and misses. That's it. They're doing an outstanding job. We know that. They cover pitches up. They cover pitches down."

There's certainly some debate about whether Sale's stuff was that good. But watching the last game, it certainly seemed like they were teeing off well beyond what you'd expect.

And here's how Sale has fared against the Orioles vs. the rest of the league:


vs. Balt: 2 GS, 8 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 6 K, 3 HR, .485 BA, 13.50 ERA
vs. Others: 3 GS, 15 IP, 14 H, 7 BB, 24 K, 2 HR, .230 BA, 5.40 ERA

In terms of player development, I am skeptical of Bloom. It is true that baseball is not like football or basketball, where players get picked, then often play meaningful roles on the major league level the next season. It takes years for most impact players to see the majors. (Marcelo Mayer is as close to "can't miss" as you can get: Was generally seen as the best player of the 2021 draft, has performed very well so far in the minors, the team desperately needs a shortstop...and he is at high-A right now, with no real chance of being in the big leagues before 2025.)

That said, I don't see a ton of players drafted since Bloom took over in 2020 who seem to be on the fast track to impact status. Nick Yorke, Blaze Jordan, and Shane Drohan are from the 2020 draft, and seeing at least one of those guys become quality big leaguers would go a long way to vindicating Bloom's early draft returns.

Another factor coloring my (and probably other Red Sox fans') perspectives? The bounty of development success from the Theo Epstein era (2003-2011 drafts):

2003 draft: David Murphy, Jonathan Paplebon
2004: Dustin Pedroia, Cla Meredith
2005: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie
2006: Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Josh Reddick
2007: Anthony Rizzo, Will Middlebrooks, Hunter Strickland
2008: Christian Vazquez
2009: Alex Wilson
2010: Brandon Workman
2011: Matt Barnes, Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Travis Shaw

They also, during this period, signed international free agents like:
Xander Bogaerts
Felix Doubront
Junichi Tazawa
Jose Igelsias

So, just on the guys from this list, the team developed:
C- Vazquez
1B - Rizzo
2B - Pedroia
3B - Middlebrooks
SS - Bogaerts
OF - Betts, Ellsbury, Bradley
DH - Reddick
Bench: Shaw, Iglesias, Lowrie
SP - Buchholz, Doubront
RP - Paplebon, Barnes, Tazawa, Bard, Workman, Wilson
That's almost an entire roster of above-average players, all developed, in a nine-year window. He also picked up David Ortiz from the scrap heap for $1m. (There's your DH!)

And I know I'm forgetting a bunch of others. And this is acknowledging that many of the biggest prospects the team had at the time - players who flamed out - were traded for valuable assets. For example, Casey Kelly and Ray Fuentes were 1st round picks during this era who didn't work out...but were traded for Adrian Gonzalez. A strong farm system allows you to develop cheap homegrown talent...and trade for established talent, as well.

Maybe that's the standard us spoiled New England sports fans have developed over the past 20 years, so maybe Bloom is doomed no matter what happens, which would be unfair. But I think the truth is somewhere in between "You're not Theo Epstein" and "You are terrible at your job."

Speaking of the broadcast, how's everyone like the new crew? O'Brien has become sloppy in addition to being annoying. He seems to not notice some stuff he should, use the wrong terms, and adds inflection to his voice randomly to make rather mundane things sound important. Youk seems fine, I don't enjoy Merloni's constant yammering (though maybe he'll adjust to TV), and Middlebrooks is pretty bland but doesn't actively detract from the broadcast much.

Looks like my reply to this yesterday got munched, but:

* O'Brien really seems to be engaging in a lot of his worst tendencies this year, I think in part because where Remy and Eck had the reputation to disagree when he's saying stuff like "it's a shame folks can't take out the second baseman anymore", the younger crew doesn't. He seems to be on a mission to make sure everyone knows the new rules are just the best and really, this team is underrated and better than you think, and it's really easy to see how when there's a guest in the booth, he's always phrasing things so they'll sound rude or stupid if they disagree (unless it's Big Papi, in which case it becomes The Chris Farley Show), the sort of interviewer/moderator who wants to get his points across rather than encourage someone to say something interesting of their own.

* Youk is solid, and seems to have realized that a lot of what he was doing last year isn't necessarily sustainable over a full season. He hasn't gone the route of a lot of guys who denigrate what made him a great player (his glee at Casas drawing a 14-pitch walk a few years ago was him letting his plate-discipline-sicko flag fly).

* Merloni is probably better known as a creature of talk radio than a player these days, and you can feel that in the broadcast, both on TV and radio; he talks more than he needs to and seems happiest to indulge O'Brien's worst instincts.

* Middlebrooks is fine, and probably just needs more reps to develop some sort of chemistry with O'Brien. He's sort of a replacement-level ex-ballplayer right now.

One thing that's been kicking around my head for the past couple years is that Youkilis and Middlebrooks seem better when Mike Monaco subs for O'Brien, even if Monaco isn't as polished. Something kind of short-circuits when an older announcer's "when I was a kid and baseball was perfect" perspective runs into younger players' more recent experience that doesn't happen when it's the other way around.

Great post, SBPT. For better or worse, Bloom's first few drafts have been very high-school heavy. Yorke is in AA at 21 and Jordan is in A+ at age 20. That seems about on track. The two college guys taken that year were Wu-Yelland (4th round, missed 2022 with an injury) and Drohan (5th round), who's 24 but is having an excellent year in AA right now, including another great start today. Bleis seems like the only impact international signing so far, but he's a pretty good one.

I'd say it's really too early to tell how well he's done. Overall, the system has gone from barren to pretty good. It certainly doesn't seem like he's lived up to the drafting/development under Theo and company. But besides the Dodgers, I'm not sure anyone has.

Based on SBPT's draft list, Epstein hit on 7 of 23 first round picks, and 4 out of 10 second round picks, across 9 drafts. Bloom isn't getting 23 first round picks in 9 years unless he's the PBO for 3 teams simultaneously. That aside, Bloom has signed 6 players in the first or second round across 3 drafts, so if he gets 2 players of at least Cla Meredith/Alex Wilson caliber eventually from those players then he's on par with the production level on the sample to date. And 5 of his 6 players were drafted out of high school, so it will be a while before we get enough of a read on that. And regardless of what happens there's a huge margin of error here. Two is on par with Epstein; 1 is well below; 3 is well above. And then, of course, are the players Epstein got in later rounds that developed well or were horribly undervalued. Every draft has someone in a later round who will be a successful MLBer; you just have to be able to identify them and pick them at the right time.

It is considerably harder to restock the farm through the draft in the 2020s than it was in the 2000s. It is even harder if you can't draft well, and harder still if you can't develop well, but those are also hard to evaluate at this point.

I'm still going to throw all that aside, because my main point in this thread is the Red Sox have been playing OK so far against challenging competition. If people who say they're not watching or not interested in watching want to talk about how they'll suck eventually or preemptively complain about the 2023-24 offseason feel free, but I'm not going to treat it as in any way responsive to my point.

On that note... After series #8 (or at least, as of this moment):

Baltimore: 13-5 against non-Boston. (Boston went 3-3 across two series)
Pittsburgh: 13-8 against non-Boston. (0-3)
Detroit: 9-11 against non-Boston. (3-0)
Tampa Bay: 16-4 against non-Boston. (0-4)
Anaheim: 11-9 against non-Boston. (3-1)
Minnesota: 13-9 against non-Boston. (2-1)
Milwaukee: 15-7 against non-Boston. (2-1)

Opponents total record against non-Boston: 90-53.
...counting Baltimore 2x as Boston has had 2 series against them: 103-58.

Boston's record now: 13-13.

Boston's competition is collectively on a 102 or 103 win pace. And Boston is at .500. I'm looking forward to when they face the teams on a 60-win pace, but I think that isn't until the break.

These Sox may be iffy, but it's disaster for their Chicago counterparts. Woof.

A few other thoughts about the Epstein draft history:

- It's so hard to "hit" on a draft pick in baseball, because there is so much projection involved, even compared to NFL or NBA drafts. So a "hit", IMO, is a lot lower bar to scale than what some might say. Epstein's first draft pick was the #17 pick in 2003. He selected David Murphy, who ended producing 9.9 WAR, most of it with other teams. In 2007, he was one of three minor leaguers traded at the deadline for Eric Gagne. The team won the WS that year, but Gagne was not very good. Whatever - if you get a guy who ends up playing over 1100 games in 10 years, was an above average hitter, had a few really good years - that's a "hit". In fact, that's really good - it was the 9th-most WAR by anybody drafted in the 1st round that year.

Here's even more: In 2003, only two teams drafted more than one guy in the first round who ended up producing positive WAR in their career - the D'Backs (Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson) and the Red Sox (Murphy and Matt Murton). Seven teams had multiple 1st round picks - some had three of them! - but getting a major leaguer out of the 1st round is no gimme. Only 21 of the 37 1st round picks that year produced a positive WAR in the bigs.

- Epstein truly nailed some non-first round picks:
Paplebon was a 4th round pick
Pedroia was a 2nd round pick
Rizzo was a 6th round pick
Mookie Friggin Betts was a 5th round pick.

To me, drafting Betts in the 5th round, and then developing him (he certainly didn't start the minors as an elite prospect) is sort of like discovering Elvis or something. Do that once, and you're sort of covered for the rest of your career...

Epstein's first draft pick was the #17 pick in 2003. He selected David Murphy, who ended producing 9.9 WAR, most of it with other teams. In 2007, he was one of three minor leaguers traded at the deadline for Eric Gagne. The team won the WS that year, but Gagne was not very good.

Not very good. Sure, let's go with that. Lol. That was rough.

Is weird, I totally agree about Murphy being a success even though he was included in a bad trade. But weirdly, I also feel like getting Casey Kelly and dealing him for someone good is a success. They feel like they should negate each other.

Opponents total record against non-Boston: 90-53.
...counting Baltimore 2x as Boston has had 2 series against them: 103-58.

Boston's record now: 13-13.

Boston's competition is collectively on a 102 or 103 win pace. And Boston is at .500. I'm looking forward to when they face the teams on a 60-win pace, but I think that isn't until the break.

The schedule really is brutal with no signs of letting up. Coming up:

Cleveland
Toronto
Philadelphia
Atlanta
St. Louis
Seattle
San Diego
LA Angels
Arizona
Cincinnati

Cincinnati's the only "bad" team in there. The rest are a mix of .500-ish teams and better teams. If the Red Sox are around .500 after this, they'll be in good shape.

Funny little stat: As of the morning of April 27th, 26 games into the season, Adam Duvall still has the 2nd-highest WAR on the team, despite playing in only 8 games, with 37 PAs. Devers, in 110 PAs, still has fewer WAR than Duvall. 5th on the team in WAR? Duran, in only 40 PAs.

The team's overall results through the first 26 games is about where most expected (frankly, a little above what I am expecting in 2023), 13-13. The funniest part is that the stunningly poor offense from the combination of Arroyo, Chang, Wong, and Casas (a combined .160 average in 224 ABs) has been counteracted by jaw-dropping starts by Duran and Duvall (.426 BA with power in 68 ABs).

Obviously, those two trends can't continue. But as long as they do - it'll at least help keep the team at .500...

Funny little stat: As of the morning of April 27th, 26 games into the season, Adam Duvall still has the 2nd-highest WAR on the team, despite playing in only 8 games, with 37 PAs. Devers, in 110 PAs, still has fewer WAR than Duvall. 5th on the team in WAR? Duran, in only 40 PAs.

Devers is swinging at everything. Big meaty swings too! He's still been productive but it does feel like he'd benefit from being a little more selective.

On CF, the plan is working perfectly: Have Duvall dominate for 8 games so that Duran can see how to do it, then have Duran step in and take over dominating. Those guys combined so far:


77 PA, 29 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 24 RBI, .426/.468/.824, 1.6 WAR.

I would have been happy to get 1.6 WAR out of CF for the season.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Theo era was almost completely incomparable to what's going on today in terms of building a farm system.

1. The compensation rules that allowed teams to load up on 1st round picks (mentioned above).
2. No international signing bonus pools.
3. No limits on draft expenditures.
4. Players could be drafted and followed for a year.

These are pretty big differences. Take the Mookie draft in 2011. Drafting Mookie in the 5th round is great (although it leads to an obvious question). But they did so by going about $600,000 over slot. In fact, they went over slot for all 4 of their first rounders, slot for the 2nd rounder, and over slot for rounds 3-7. This included $625K for Noe Ramirez in the 4th round (slot of $180K) and $800K for Cody Kukuk in the 7th (zero slot). There are other big numbers in the later rounds as well: $120K to Matt Good in the 20th and $275K to Matt Spalding in the 29th. Overall they spent over $10 mil. despite the slot recs totally just $5.4 mil.

They did a great job within that system, for sure. But it's just very hard to compare to the current system.

Taking a look back at the over/unders 1/6 of the way through the season:

Here are mine. I'm looking forward to this season more than most of you, I guess, but I get it.

79.5 Wins - OVER. Mid-80s, in contention for a Wild Card.
14.5 Sale starts - OVER. He heads into the year healthy so what could possibly go wrong?
24.5 Casas HR - OVER. Tough one. I think he is going to swing for the fences a bit more and, if he stays healthy all year, that gets him into the high 20s at least.
3.0 Verdugo WAR - OVER. Another close call. He's a good hitter and appears to have readjusted his approach to fit his strengths.
Turner/Duvall more HR - Duvall. I'm assuming he gets 400+ PA.
19.5 Whitlock starts - OVER??? I added a couple question marks. I think they will give him as much chance as possible to stick in the rotation, but usage, effectiveness in longer outings, and health are all question marks.
44.5 Devers doubles - UNDER. Very close. I think he'll have an excellent year but right around 40 doubles.
94.5 Devers walks - UNDER. The rest of the lineup isn't bad enough to push his walk total this high.
Marcelo Mayer MLB debut - September 23, 2023. One day after VI's guess so that if he debuts any time after that, I am righter than him. (Yes, I watch the Price Is Right, why?)
49.5 Rafaela prospect ranking - NA. Cannot be ranked because he will have used up his eligibility on the second half, playing an amazing CF for the big club.

Bonus:
.300 Masataka Yoshida batting average -- OVER. Both ZIPS (.305) and Steamer (.299) project him to have the highest batting average in the AL. I like him.

Some looking good, some looking bad.

Some good and some bad. Sale maybe gets that many starts but maybe we don't want him to. Casas 24 HRs not looking so likely.

I bet your predictions will go either 5-4 or 4-5.

I like the way Sale has looked in his last few starts (including today's). He has a good fastball, and a good curve, to keep hitters honest. He's their best starter, still.

I hope we don't care about pitcher's wins anymore. Bello pitched well yesterday, and didn't get the W because the bullpen failed, but Bello's effort should be cause for celebration. Same for Sale, today, in case they lose, or the bullpen coughs up a lead.

And Duran looks like a MLB hitter these past couple of weeks. A good MLB hitter.

Agreed on both Bello and Sale. Today's outing for Sale was very encouraging. Good velocity and movement as well as control in lousy conditions.

And yeah Duran really looks good. I'm surprised he's been able to make me a believer.

Bradford keeps bringing up that the WBC might have given participating players - hitters in particular - a jump-start to the season. The performance of Verdugo and Duran to date appears to bolster that argument. There are counterexamples of course.

Sox are now tied with the Yankees.

Duran's only negative is his 4/1 K:BB. BA of .396 w/ an OBP of .415 is troubling, somewhat. Whatever adjustment he's made since ST has worked for him, though, so far.

Sox are now tied with the Yankees.

They're now a half-game out of third place, on a 91-win pace. If they go .500 the rest of the way they will finish at 83-79. They are playing OK and it's OK to say so.

I'll go a step further. They are playing well and it is well to say so.

Wellllll...yeah, they are. Last night was another nice come from behind win. After Vlad's bomb, it might have been expected that Pivetta would blow up, but he didn't, and the bats rallied. They're fun to watch right now.

Well, well, well. Well.

Baseball Reference now has the Sox tied for the 7th best Simple Rating System (1.1) and tied for the 3rd hardest schedule (0.5).

heheh...too early to review our predictions, gotta wait until after Memorial Day!

But....I told you so on the catching! (ignore my Klubot blurb):

Things I like:
The Klubot - 15 wins, for sure.
The catching - Mcguire & Wong are a nice tandem.
Yoshida/Devers - Oh yeah!

Baseball Reference now has the Sox tied for the 7th best Simple Rating System (1.1) and tied for the 3rd hardest schedule (0.5).

I'm happy they've outperformed my expectations, and I won't be disappointed if the continue to do so. Also, I won't be surprised if they don't. It's a long season.

There's still plenty of time to disappoint.

I think that a few players have made sufficient progress that if the team falters, there will be positives to be happy about. Duran becoming a good hitter, at his age, is a plus. I think he'll be good. Not a .400/.600 guy, but he settle in to an OPS of .800, I think? If Wong hits righties even a little, he's got to be the starter. Bello looks good. Etc, I'm eating I'll finish my thought later maybe.

Yoshida to deep center!!

Wong is hitting righties better than lefties. And why would you want to start a guy who will never have a .700 OPS?

After series #10:

Baltimore: 18-7 against non-Boston. (Boston went 3-3 across two series)
Pittsburgh: 17-12 against non-Boston. (0-3)
Detroit: 13-14 against non-Boston. (3-0)
Tampa Bay: 22-6 against non-Boston. (0-4)
Anaheim: 17-11 against non-Boston. (3-1)
Minnesota: 17-12 against non-Boston. (2-1)
Milwaukee: 17-11 against non-Boston. (2-1)
Cleveland: 13-15 against non-Boston. (2-1)
Toronto: 18-10 against non-Boston (4-0)

Opponents total record against non-Boston: 152-98. (.608, a 98-win pace over 162 games)
...counting Baltimore 2x as Boston has had 2 series against them: 170-105. (.618, a 100-win pace per 162)

Boston's record now: 19-14. Alone in third place. 93-win pace, against 100-win-caliber competition.