The defense also sucks.  Only Baltimore and Chicago are worse among AL teams.

They are not going to be a good defensive team, but I wouldn't expect them to be this bad all season long. Wait, let me amend that... They will be this bad if they insist on playing Bobby Dalbec at short. Maybe even worse.

A few thoughts:

1) I don't think David Hamilton is ultimately a major league starting player, and certainly not at SS (his arm is very weak), but he is a useful player on a team that could definitely employ some additional useful players. He can play a little outfield, some 2B, and occasional game at SS if you're in a bind. He also is a more valuable pinch runner than even Duran. As your 25th or 26th guy, he adds value, and I'd rather see him on the roster than Dalbec or Duran.

2) Sale may not have much to do with the next great Red Sox team, but he has a lot to do with whether or not the 2023 team wins 75, 81, or 86 games. Right now, he is hurting the team - giving up runs, and not going deep into games - but he'll be sent out there every five days as long as he is healthy. It's not like they'll convert him into a set up man or something. So his performance is going to be a big part of the marginal uptick or downtick of the 2023 Red Sox. I know some on this board have pushed back on this, but I have long felt that Sale's big contract, combined with his nearly complete absence, has been the single-biggest problem the team has faced as it tries to rebuild from the Dombrowski era. Since August 13, 2019, Sale has pitched 70.1 innings - total. He's made $30M annually since 2020, and makes $27.5m this year. One can easily think of the ways the Red Sox could have spent that money better: Imagine solving our SS and lack of right-handed bats problem by re-signing Bogaerts before he became a free agent using Sale's money? Imagine if we took Sale's money plus the Yoshida money and kept a better right fielder like...Mookie Betts? Or Sale's money plus the Jansen money to get a legit ace for $40m+ annually? Sigh.

3) I'd really like the Red Sox go all-in on figuring out what younger players are part of the future. They are doing that now with Casas, Whitlock, Bello, and the catching situation; it looks like Crawford and Winckowski are getting some run, too. That's what a successful 2023 looks like to me. The next level, IMO, would be converting Mata to a short-inning guy in Worcester, and see if we've got something there before the end of 2023 (when he runs out of options). Seeing Hamilton get some run as a utility guy would be helpful. Unfortunately, though, there aren't very many other guys poised to come up from the system this year and get a shot to show their stuff. Rafaela is not ready offensively - not even close, and he's still in AA. Mayer is in high-A. Walter and Murphy are struggling in AAA. Enmanuel Valdez looks like he can hit; if he is looking good this summer, I'd like to see him get ABs against righties as a DH and occasional 2B.

4) The combination of the C's and B's legitimate championship chances, the Patriots legacy of success combined with the region's general love of football, and the Red Sox's low-energy vibe and middling results, has the Red Sox in a place that I'm not sure I've seen in my nearly-50-year lifetime in New England: The 4th team in New England. I mean, pretty much every night now is either a Bruins or Celtics playoff game, and the amount of buzz and interest in the NFL draft next week is higher than ever. I'm not going to watch a Red Sox game as long as those options are running against them until the NBA/NHL playoffs are over in June. I think the Red Sox are in a very precarious spot regionally. They need to develop an authentic narrative about who they are, and where they are going (frankly, I think the Patriots are a mediocre season away from being in a similar place). Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Kenley Jansen may make them a little better this year, but actually confirm a narrative that the team is just stumbling along aimlessly, waiting for a bunch of guys in A ball to save the team three years from now.

Masataka Yoshida has not really built on his WBC success. I’m sure someone has looked into Japanese players coming to the US but it seems reasonable that the assorted adjustments just to life in general let alone the style of baseball might create some early challenges.

That was the case with Hideki Matsui - OPS of .683 & .655 in his first two months in MLB before breaking out with a 1.157 OPS in June 2003. After that he was pretty solid.

waiting for a bunch of guys in A ball to save the team three years from now.

Or, they'll make a big splash in FA market and add a couple or 3 stars in their prime.

A quiz: Who are Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Johan Oviedo, Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, Spencer Turnbull, Joey Wentz, Mattew Boyd, Jalen Beeks, Shane Mclanahan, Taj Bradley, Jeffrey Springs, Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers, and Shohei Ohtani?

Besides "one of these things is not like the others", (that is, a good pitcher), these are the starters the Red Sox have faced so far this year. If you want to predict that their offense is "very good" based on how they hit in the first 17 games of the year, good luck to you, and them.

I left Patrick Sandoval off of the list. He's not bad.

Imagine solving our SS and lack of right-handed bats problem by re-signing Bogaerts

Wsa Bogaerts ever going to resign though?

Now let's do OPS+: Wong 38, Casas 49, Arroyo eight, Kiké 65, Refsnyder 84, Yoshida 72, Chang two.

A lot of those good team numbers come from Duvall, who is out for a while. Devers has been very good. Verdugo has been good. Turner has been ok. McGuire has been very good.

That's it.

Their team OPS+ is 100.

I'm not going to watch a Red Sox game as long as those options are running against them until the NBA/NHL playoffs are over in June.

I might have already watched more Red Sox games this year than I did all of last year. I've definitely watched more Red Sox games in their first 17 than I watched Patriots games all last NFL season.

I know some on this board have pushed back on this, but I have long felt that Sale's big contract, combined with his nearly complete absence, has been the single-biggest problem the team has faced as it tries to rebuild from the Dombrowski era.

To be clear - and this isn't really contradicting what you're saying - the problem with Dombrowski wasn't the Sale contract. It was the whole array of contracts. Sign enough of them and you're probably guaranteed to get at least one stinker in there. The Sale contract just illustrates the problem, and is the remaining problem on the roster from that era. The "need" to trade Betts - a need that was exacerbated by the Sale contract but also the Eovaldi contract, the Martinez contract, and the Price contract - is the bigger issue, and one that still affects them today.

+3.6 WAR : Betts 2020
+1.4 WAR : Price remainder of contract
-0.6 WAR : Downs, career to date
+0.5 WAR : Wong, career to date
+6.3 WAR : Verdugo, Boston career to date
----------
+1.2 WAR : Boston net result of trade to date

Alternatively...

+14.3 WAR : Betts 2020 to today
+ 1.4 WAR : Price remainder of contract
+ 0.3 WAR : Sale 2020 to today
+ 7.0 WAR : Eovaldi 2019-2022
- 0.6 WAR : Pearce 2019
+13.7 WAR : Martinez 2018-2022
-----------
- 4.7 WAR : Boston net result to date of not extending Sale, not re-signing Eovaldi, not signing Martinez, not re-signing Pearce, not trading Price, and extending Betts

That's probably a wash by the end of this season, AND you still would have Betts for several more years. And that's if they had made *none* of those deals other than extending Betts! Just don't sign JDM and don't extend the others.

I'm including JDM in there because I don't want this to the folly of just cherry-picking the worst deals. Martinez delivered for Boston a fair return for his contract. But I was on record at the time of his signing as saying I didn't think a DH was where they needed to spend the money when they had so many young players they'd need to pay - either in arb or to retain at free agency - so I think there's a roster-preservation argument for not having signed him at all. If OTOH they had spent for JDM and not thrown money everywhere in the 2018-19 offseason, it would be +9.0 instead of -4.7, and they would have had the Sale / Eovaldi / Pearce / future Price money to throw at Betts and potentially others.

Nice win last night. Nice outing from Sale.

The schedule looks rough for the next few weeks. If they can stay around .500 thru mid May, that will be a positive sign. I'm not optimistic (surprise!).

Jarren Duran is putting up numbers like Tris Speaker! (OK, small sample size)

He runs like the wind. He could be valuable in a late inning pinch running situation. He was robbed of an extra base when the ball bounced over the bullpen fence instead of off of it...and with the right bounce to the left and past the CF, it could have been an ITPHR.

A quiz: Who are Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Johan Oviedo, Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, Spencer Turnbull, Joey Wentz, Mattew Boyd, Jalen Beeks, Shane Mclanahan, Taj Bradley, Jeffrey Springs, Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers, and Shohei Ohtani?

Mostly average to good Major League pitchers?

Another guy I feel cautiously optimistic about still is Triston Casas. Casas has struggled in the early going but I did a bit of a deep dive on him. One thing about him is he is not swinging and missing a lot, he is dead on league average (all stats through Sunday night). I think he’s being a bit too concerned about waiting for his pitch rather than being willing to attack early in the count. It’s a bit reminiscent of Kevin Youkilis in his early career. Casas will almost certainly never be a high average guy but his minor league track record suggest he won’t be a huge K guy like Dalbec and I think he will be OK.

Extremely anecdotal, but I noticed that hitters like patient hitters like Casas/Youk tend to struggle more than you'd expect as they move up a level. I'm also a bit optimistic, although it would be nice if he was hitting .200/.300/.350 instead of being so incredibly dreadful. A couple well hit balls last night at least.

In the other thread, there was some discussion of this team possibly being bad/mediocre but still interesting/fun. Got me thinking what makes for that kind of team? Here are a few things I came up with:

--Surprisingly good performances from veteran players, especially if it's a new approach or type of success. . If Verdugo continues to hit this way, he'd be a good one. Duvall could have been.

--Young players reaching their potential. Winckowski, Bello, Whitlock, Duran and others have a shot.

--Related to the previous two, the development of a young core that will be the center of the next good/great team.

--Historic performances--challenging records or just being generally dominant. Devers maybe? (probably not)

--A total and complete collapse that leads to major changes. Examples: if none of the young players pan out, if all of the veteran starters falter, if the team is 30-55 at the break and they fire Bloom.

What else?

Goofy/weird plays and games.
Bad fielding but good hitting
Unusual controversies

Historic performances--challenging records or just being generally dominant. Devers maybe? (probably not)

If they call Hamilton up and he regularly does Ellsburian stuff like scoring from second on a wild pitch or stealing home.

It's a different sport, but last year's 8-9 Patriots team was a great example of a mediocre squad having an interesting season: exciting/wacky finishes, Marcus Jones, etc...

I agree with Nate in #18: The 2022 Patriots were interesting, despite ending up being mediocre, because there were so many variables and young players during the season. Part of it is the nature of pro football: There were at least 10 new young guys (mainly rookies) who you are wondering if they will be part of the next really good Patriots team. The QB situation involved a 2nd-year guy who could be really good...but maybe isn't, vs a rookie with a funny name who showed signs of being better than Mac Jones (Bailey Zappe). There are just so many players, so many positions, and so many rookies every year that it is almost always at least interesting.

With the 2023 Red Sox, we'll see what happens, but I am dramatically more interested in the team if they are maximizing opportunities to play guys like Enmanual Valdez at 2B. We know pretty much what Arroyo is, and it's not good enough...so let's see if Valdez - who is on the 40-man roster, so he's taking up a slot - can play at all. If he can hit, but cannot field, then fine - make him the left-handed part of a DH platoon next year (Turner will likely be gone, based on how his contract is structured). If he can hold down 2nd base, then we can talk about trying Story at SS next year while we await the arrival of Marcelo Mayer.

The fans will deal with a 70-something win team for the next year or two if there is a plan clearly in place. It is fun to watch young players try to figure it out.

I agree basically with the premise, but I would amend it to say that we know what Arroyo is and he's fine. But if this season isn't going anywhere, let's use that spot to see what Valdez or Hamilton can do. I think I prefer the latter.

Darren/15: I mentioned it in the other thread, but (last night's game being a painful exception) it's the feeling that this team is still in games, even when they fall behind. I've mostly been listening on the radio but it hasn't sounded like hitters have changed their approach too much when behind (ie getting impatient/bad-ball swinging more than usual). Seems like a lot of games in past years have just gone downhill once the team got behind by a few runs.

If the bullpen falters, that feeling will most likely fade.

The fans will deal with a 70-something win team for the next year or two if there is a plan clearly in place. It is fun to watch young players try to figure it out.

By "deal with," do you mean that they will not literally burn down Fenway? If so, then I agree.

Oof. Paxton's rehab appearance in with Worcester last night: flyout, HR, single, triple, single, flyout, single, BB, BB, double.

They were hoping for him to pitch 5 innings in that appearance.

Oof. Paxton's rehab appearance in with Worcester last night: flyout, HR, single, triple, single, flyout, single, BB, BB, double.

They were hoping for him to pitch 5 innings in that appearance.

I hate to say it, but I now expect an injury to be announced...

Not that this likely affected the outcome, but Why did they have Paxton pitch in relief?

Wow, lots of good fun happy stuff happening today.

--Great outing for Houck
--Nice offensive games for Verdugo, Casas, and others.
--In AA: Another dominant start for Drohan, even though he gave up a run. ERA is now 0.53; 3 GS, 17 IP, 11 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 19 K.

Not that this likely affected the outcome, but Why did they have Paxton pitch in relief?

They might want to get him used the role. The only other 2 relief appearances he's had as a professional were 10 years ago.

They said in his next appearance they want him to start.

Mostly average to good Major League pitchers?

Most of them don't get drafted in fantasy leagues. Some of them are awful.

Don't get drafted in fantasy leagues?

That's right. They're waiver wire dreck.

That's kind of irrelevant.

The guys you mentioned are fine. Normal list of pitchers. If you're saying they're not, show your work.

The guys you mentioned are fine. Normal list of pitchers. If you're saying they're not, show your work.

The Orioles pitchers are meh, Pirates are pretty decent, Tigers are shitty (shocking), Rays are very good (another shock), and the Angles are a mixed bag. Not a tough particularly tough stretch of the season, but it's not like they are all trash pitchers that are wildly over-inflating the Sox offense. Not sure how they are doing it, because every time I look at a boxscore it looks like the Sox have at least 4 guys in the line up who suck, but the offense does look decent overall.

Given the makeup of the lineup, I'm surprised that Devers isn't walking more. He's swinging at more pitches than he had in the past, but I'd still think they would be pitching around him a lot and making other players beat them.

2B Chase Meidroth is putting up some fun numbers in A+ at age 21:

.370/.564/.519, with 11 BB and a HBP vs. 8 K in 39 PA.

For his very short career since being drafted in the 4th round last year out of San Diego:

135 PA, 25 BB, 5 HBP, 19 K, .330/.474/.534

MLB Pipeline: #20
Fangraphs: 35+, outside top 51 (last updated mid-2022)
SoxProspects: #30

Given the makeup of the lineup, I'm surprised that Devers isn't walking more

Agreed. The 3/4 spots in the line up are underperforming pretty badly, along with the 6/7 spots (primarily Turner/Yoshida & Casas/Arroyo). 1/2/5/8/9 are good - 8/9 are the surprising ones to me, although small sample sizes are heavily impacting all this.

Checking in to see if Freddy Peralta is waiver wire dreck in fantasy baseball. I'll hang up and listen.

The rotation is getting really interesting with Pivetta notching another passable start yesterday. Now you've got:

Sale - maybe he's back?
Pivetta - solid as usual
Whitlock - a very nice start, they need to see if he can start long term
Houck - best starter this year, needs to start
Bello - needs a chance to prove he's a starter
Kluber - incredibly bad but will expect to start
Paxton - has never pitched in relief

Two of those guys have to go to the pen or the minors. Tough call but I guess I'd plan to bump Paxton and if Kluber stinks again, maybe him?

Still looking up from the bottom of a very strong division, but that was a solid victory last night, taking advantage when opportunity knocked.

Sure, the Brewers are playing above their head and Twins are (at the moment) the best of a questionable lot, but 3 out of 4 from current division leaders is still encouraging.

That lineup yesterday was uninspiring on paper, to say the least. As others are noting upthread, it's strange how it's strong at the top and the bottom but is empty in the middle.

I am not yet confident in the rotation but re: Darren/38: that would be an interesting problem to have.

Sale - maybe he's back?
Pivetta - solid as usual
Whitlock - a very nice start, they need to see if he can start long term
Houck - best starter this year, needs to start
Bello - needs a chance to prove he's a starter
Kluber - incredibly bad but will expect to start
Paxton - has never pitched in relief

Until somebody gets hurt, the Red Sox situation is pretty simple: Their five best starters for building towards the future are the same as their current five best starters to try to win today...the first five guys on that list.

Kluber is the latest in a series of Bloom signings intended to find short-term veteran starters, typically coming back from either injuries or inconsistency (or both): Martin Perez, Garrett Richards, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, now Kluber and Paxton.