And the better news is that as far as I can tell, roughly $52M off the books next year with Ortiz, Papelbon, Scutaro, Cameron, Drew all FAs. None of those five players are a part of this teams core. All of those players has at least some potential to be replaced by somebody already within the organization.

That $52M is going to provide an incredible amount of flexibility (even w/ raises due) to make an already great team even better.

That $52M is going to provide an incredible amount of flexibility (even w/ raises due) to make an already great team even better.

A-Gon's raise is a given that eats up a third of that.

That $52M is going to provide an incredible amount of flexibility (even w/ raises due) to make an already great team even better.

More like $35M when they announce Gonzalez's new contract after they've dodged this year's luxury tax.

As per Cot's they're at $101M in 2012 for Beckett, Lackey, Crawford, DiceK, Youkilis, Jenks, Lester, Pedroia, and Iglesias. Add in Gonzalez, and they'll be at ~$123M.

That $52M is going to provide an incredible amount of flexibility (even w/ raises due) to make an already great team even better.

Another way of looking at it is that they can potentially allow dead weight on next year's roster.

Sure, they can improve the team by replacing those folks with better players. But what if their greatest need is in a position where they won't have a vacancy? Say... the rotation? Let's say Matsuzaka ##### Phil Coorey sideways. There's a decent chance that they sign someone else, and Matsuzaka becomes a role player until he can be traded (like Lowell, or Crisp), or the team just dumps him elsewhere and eats a lot of salary (like Lugo, or Renteria).

I'm not suggesting this is a bad thing. I think they have to assume they'll have some dead weight in any given year. Financial flexibility allows them to manage that. Obviously they won't want $52m devoted to dead weight, but I'm guessing they should plan for $15-20m of dead weight and $32-37m of new signings.

Talk about 2012 before 2011 happens? Sure!

C $3M Saltalamacchia
1B $23M Gonzalez
2B $8M Pedroia
3B $12M Youkilis
SS $2M Lowrie
LF $20M Crawford
CF $4M Ellsbury
RF $500k Kalish
DH ---

SP $17M Beckett
SP $16M Lackey
SP $10M Matsuzaka
SP $8M Lester
SP $4M Buchholz

RP $6M Jenks
RP $500k Bard

That puts the Sox at $135M or so with the entire roster covered except DH and bullpen. Obviously it's not the most likely scenario that the Sox would see no significant losses to injury or ineffectiveness before 2012, and that all of Saltalamacchia, Lowrie, and Kalish will display the ability to be regulars for the 2012 season. That's where those extra thirty million dollars come into play, though - if the Sox have a hole to fill, they have more than enough money to do it.

The Sox usually wait until post-arbitration to work on long-term extensions with their young players. I wonder if they'll try to lock up Buchholz to a five-year deal, which would knock out his 2011 pre-arb year, all three arb seasons plus the first year of free agency and take him through age 30. Some of that $4 million difference between 2010 and 2011 could go toward giving him a bigger bump than he would otherwise have gotten from his $443,000 salary last season.

That would follow the Lester pattern: Lester was 24, had come off his first season as a successful full-time starter, and signed a five-year deal (club option for a sixth) that bought out his first year (or two) of free agency and takes him through his age 29 (or 30) season. He signed his deal in March 2009.

One minor salary note - I expect the Red Sox will sign Clay Buchholz to an extension this April, just after the season starts. Maybe something like 4/32 with an option.

EDIT: coke to Paul... I was thinking they'd wait until after opening day, for luxury tax purposes. An extension would probably give Buchholz an AAV of $7M or so, compared to his current AAV of basically nothing. I don't think the Sox want to pay the luxury tax on the new Buchholz contract, and so it would make sense for them to wait until after Opening Day, then sign him to a contract that buys out his arb years and hopefully a couple FA years. In 2009, the Sox were well under the luxury tax, so they didn't need to worry about that with Lester's contract.

As per Cot's they're at $101M in 2012 for Beckett, Lackey, Crawford, DiceK, Youkilis, Jenks, Lester, Pedroia, and Iglesias. Add in Gonzalez, and they'll be at ~$123M.

That still leaves them in an excellent financial position. They'll have $41M to play with and not a lot of holes to fill. LF, CF, 3B, 2B, 1B, and slots 1-5 in the rotation are set.

If Lowrie doesn't grab the SS job, Iglesias probably will; they're unlikely to be spending big at the position. They'll probably have to spend on one of C or RF, depending on what Saltalamacchia and Kalish do this year. Whether Ortiz or someone else, good DH makes about $6M these days. They'll spend on rotation depth and a couple non-closer bullpen arms. Arbitration raises will be modest; Buchholz, Lowrie, and Salty are going for the first time, Ellsbury for his second.

$41M will be plenty to take care of all of that. Even if they wanted to, there won't be a lot of good places for the Sox to throw their money next year. Bautista in right? Fielder at DH? Sabathia if he opts out? None of those seem very likely. It looks like the Sox saw that they had a lot of stability in their core for the coming years, a weak 2012 free agent class, and a couple of available stars, and decided to go all in this offseason.

Say... the rotation? Let's say Matsuzaka ##### Phil Coorey sideways.

Nice one vi!

Don't forget Wake is coming off the books as well. He has been ####### the Sox sideways as well lately!

the rotation? Let's say Matsuzaka ##### Phil Coorey sideways. There's a decent chance that they sign someone else, and Matsuzaka becomes a role player until he can be traded (like Lowell, or Crisp), or the team just dumps him elsewhere and eats a lot of salary (like Lugo, or Renteria).

The problem is that the only FA pitcher that would be worth signing would be CC; I don't see Theo going over what he already makes, nevermind out bidding a desperate Randy Levine. If they can move DiceK I'd expect a low salary guy like Tazawa or possibly even Ranaudo to be brought in.

This is awesome. What a great post.

Sounds like enough money next year to sign Pujols to me!

Ortiz, Papelbon, Scutaro, Cameron, Drew all FAs.

Just as good is the probability that Ortiz, Papelbon, and Drew will all be Type A free agents.

If there exists such a thing as Type A free agents next year, then yeah....

Scutaro could be Type A as well. Based on Bajek's 9/27/10 estimates, he scored 77, easily within "Type A" range.

Of course that includes his career year...

Anyone have a pulse on what the next CBA might look like?

Anyone have a pulse on what the next CBA might look like?

I'm currently involved in negotiations, so I cant say too much......but I am comfortable saying that both the owners and players will end up making truckloads of cash.