I will freely admit having been gravely concerned about this Oriole series

Were you? I hadn't noticed. ;-)

Schedule comparison:

NYY: 3 on the road against Toronto, who are done.
BOS: 3 on the road against Cincinnati, who are more done.

NYY: 1 at home against KC, who likely will not yet be eliminated from postseason by then.
NYY: 3 at home against TB, who are 0.5 behind KC right now.
BOS: 3 at home against Toronto, who are done.

NYY: 3 at home against Toronto, who are done.
BOS: 4 at home against Houston, likely with home field implications on the line for both teams.

No wins are given, but the collection of TOR games for NY, and CIN/TOR* games for Boston, likely cancel each other out. The division then comes down to NY vs. KC/TB and BOS vs. HOU. If either of KC or TB can take one game from NY, then Boston might go into that final series up 4. If so I suspect both teams will find it more important to rest regulars and line up the rotation for Round 1 (against each other?) than it will be to fight over who gets an extra game at home in that round.

I said last week that the next seven games (now the prior seven) were going to determine the division. Again, no wins are given, but the last week was IMO the Yankees' best chance to eliminate the gap on Boston. In those seven days they did not gain ground at all. Now the Yankees need to hope that soft teams play hard against Boston but not themselves, or that Houston is motivated in the final four games.

BPro has Boston's divisional probability at 88%, which feels about right.

* A subtle phonetic A-Rod reference.

CIN/TOR. I see what ewe did their.

Please stop horsing around. Let's enjoy the moment.

If they can go 6-4 over these final ten games, and that is feasible, then the Yankees have to go 9-1 to catch them. The way the Yankees are playing and the schedule make that distinctly possible but the margin for error for the Bronx Bombers is awfully thin.

Making up those 3 games only creates a tie, necessitating a 1-game playoff (at Yankee Stadium because of head-to-head record). That'd be great baseball drama, but neither team would be very happy about going all-out to win that playoff, falling short, and then having to play the Wildcard Game the next day.

The Yankees have been playing well enough to win the division of late, but the Red Sox haven't been cooperating. Still time for some fun, though.

The Astros would probably like a Sox-Yankees tie, even though game 1 is not until Thursday and the play-off would be Monday.

The other wildcard team would definitely like it too, even though it would make their travel a little uncertain. If it's the Angels, I'm sure they would just fly to one of the cities and go to the other if needed.

If it's the Angels, I'm sure they would just fly to one of the cities and go to the other if needed.

Why not just fly to Hartford?

Why not just fly to Hartford?

How much time do you have?

Tell you what. I'll give you a top five list.

TOP FIVE REASONS NOT TO JUST FLY TO HARTFORD

5. Your luggage is going to Denver.

4. Nightlife is done by sundown.

3. Relentless turbulence with every other landing at BDL.

2. Even a charter flight would probably have to stop in Dallas, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Detroit - in that order - on the way there, just out of tradition.

1. You'll be in Hartford.

Hartford has a street named "Boulevard." Just "Boulevard." Why? Just name it anything!

HEY! That's West Hartford.

Holy #### #7 is fantastic. Laughing my ass off right now.

Anyway, whatever the problem is, the solution is NOT to go to Hartford.

Making up those 3 games only creates a tie, necessitating a 1-game playoff (at Yankee Stadium because of head-to-head record). That'd be great baseball drama

Deven F'ing Marrero!

The goal for this team remains winning the division but with their win last night and the Angels loss the Sox have officially qualified for the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

I remember when they first added the second wildcard. One of the main arguments for it was that instead of being granted automatic entry into "the playoffs!" the wildcard teams would have to win the play-in game just to get in. My argument at the time was that fans, media, and teams would immediately view getting a wild-card spot as making the playoffs. I was right. Feels good. :)

Since this is a thread about the division race and we are Red Sox fans, I feel there should be a lot more gnashing of teeth about 2 tremendous injustices:

1. The Yankees got 3 extra home games when games that could not be played in Tampa HAD TO be moved to New York. How nobody blew a gasket over that one, I'll never know. I guess selling a few thousand tickets trumps the integrity of the pennant race.

2. The Yankees' appeals of suspensions were conveniently not heard until after the Red Sox series. By Joe Torre.

1. The Yankees got 3 extra home games when games that could not be played in Tampa HAD TO be moved to New York. How nobody blew a gasket over that one, I'll never know. I guess selling a few thousand tickets trumps the integrity of the pennant race.

I couldn't get worked up about that. There are scheduling concerns as well as just general real world concerns that make that situation tricky. The eastern time zone teams that were home that week were; Boston, Philadelphia, Toronto, Cleveland and Washington. Obviously Miami and Tampa were out and Atlanta was going to get the same weather to a lesser degree. That leaves if I'm right Cincinnati and Baltimore. That doesn't seem like a lot of options.

2. The Yankees' appeals of suspensions were conveniently not heard until after the Red Sox series. By Joe Torre.

This is a problem MLB has been letting slide forever and I don't get it. I don't think there was anything nefarious at work but the appeal process needs to be standardized for just this reason. At the very least there should be an "all suspensions start X days after the infraction" policy in place.

And I promise you that while I'm pretty calm right now by 7PM tonight I'll be losing my mind.

And I promise you that while I'm pretty calm right now by 7PM tonight I'll be losing my mind.

Fernando Abad will not be entering the game at 7 PM.

Oh fret not, I'm fully convinced we are still doomed.

That's not true. I'm oddly confident right now which scares me more than anything. There is something reassuring about expecting the worst. This feeling that it's all going to be OK is frightening.

I remember when they first added the second wildcard. One of the main arguments for it was that instead of being granted automatic entry into "the playoffs!" the wildcard teams would have to win the play-in game just to get in. My argument at the time was that fans, media, and teams would immediately view getting a wild-card spot as making the playoffs. I was right. Feels good. :)

Oh, there will still be some Primates who insist the wild card loser didn't make the playoffs. It's an argument that doesn't hold up to the facts, but it's still a common thought.

I'm right Cincinnati and Baltimore. That doesn't seem like a lot of options.

So that's 2. There's also AAA stadiums, etc. And the midwest.

The reasons they cited were the difficulty of booking hotels and travel costs. Which is absurd.

Sept. 22:

1914 BOX Ray Collins tosses 2 CG wins over DET. 8th to do so in 20th entury
1956 Ted Williams' worst known 1-game WPA. 0-for-4 w/ 1 BB, 1 K. WPA -0.372. NYY 2, BOX 1
1958 Ted Williams tosses bat after a K. Hits Gladys Heffernan, 60 years old, in the face. She's housekeeper for Joe Cronin, team GM
1974 Reggie Smith triples twice in a game for the only time
2012 BAL 9, BOX 6 (12). BAL win their 16th consecutive extra inning game. BOX rallied from deficits of 1, 2, & 3 runs, but never led
2016 BAL parting gift for David Ortiz: the exact authenticated visiting dugout phone he smashed on July 27, 2013

I said last week that the next seven games (now the prior seven) were going to determine the division. Again, no wins are given, but the last week was IMO the Yankees' best chance to eliminate the gap on Boston. In those seven days they did not gain ground at all. Now the Yankees need to hope that soft teams play hard against Boston but not themselves, or that Houston is motivated in the final four games.

BPro has Boston's divisional probability at 88%, which feels about right.

Yeah, unfortunately that seems about right to me, too. It's too bad that ESPN's proposal for an extra 4 game series between the Yankees and the Red Sox to be held beginning on Monday was squashed by Manfred's stuffed shirts. Imagine the dramatic buildup as Mike Torrez threw out the first pitch to Bucky Dent.

^^Should have a trigger warning!

Fangraphs has it at about 92%, but it sure doesn't feel that way. Maybe 60%?

Well, I just nabbed 4 green monster standing room tickets to a potential 2nd ALDS home game. Hopefully they get that far.

Oh, there will still be some Primates who insist the wild card loser didn't make the playoffs. It's an argument that doesn't hold up to the facts, but it's still a common thought.

It's still feels more like a play-in game than full playoff participation. I don't think any team that thought of itself as a World Series contender takes much satisfaction from going the one-and-done path of wildcard elimination. Might be a little different for teams no one expected to make the playoffs, but there's not even a playoff revenue boost if the road team loses the Wildcard Game.

Fangraphs has it at about 92%, but it sure doesn't feel that way. Maybe 60%?

It's only 60% if you apply a significant PPAR adjustment. (Pants-pissing above replacement.)

It's still feels more like a play-in game than full playoff participation. I don't think any team that thought of itself as a World Series contender takes much satisfaction from going the one-and-done path of wildcard elimination. Might be a little different for teams no one expected to make the playoffs, but there's not even a playoff revenue boost if the road team loses the Wildcard Game.

It can feel like it all you want. It's still a playoff game.

And I doubt any team that fashions itself a WS contender doubtfully takes much satisfcation from getting eliminated in the division series either.

Imagine the dramatic buildup as Mike Torrez threw out the first pitch to Bucky Dent.

You're rooting for the past! You really are a Yankees fan again!

It's still feels more like a play-in game than full playoff participation. I don't think any team that thought of itself as a World Series contender takes much satisfaction from going the one-and-done path of wildcard elimination.

Then maybe they shouldn't think of themselves as World Series contenders.

You're rooting for the past! You really are a Yankees fan again!

Well the Orioles are playing poorly.

Imagine the dramatic buildup as Mike Torrez threw out the first pitch to Bucky Dent.

You're rooting for the past! You really are a Yankees fan again!

Well the Orioles are playing poorly.

I know this is hard for some people to fathom, but I like both of those teams equally, but I root more heavily for the one I think has the better chance of accomplishing something in the postseason.

Yeah, I know that for most people you have to hate 29 teams in order to be a true fan of 1,** but what's true for most people isn't true for everyone. I was born in New York and became a Yankees fan at a very early age, and when Washington lost the Griffiths and I got a car, it was easy to become a fan of the Orioles.***

And I'd be seriously steamed if the Yankees made a pitch for Machado or Schoop when they become free agents. Let them steal the blue chips from the other 28 teams, but leave the Birds alone.

Doesn't stop me from being realistic about the quality of either of those teams, but then I've never been a big fan of blind faith.

** Or as a variant, you're allowed to be indifferent to 28 teams as long as you hate the Yankees or the Red Sox. That seems to be the choice of a lot of Primates.

*** The only good thing about the expansion Senators was that they had the world's easiest stadium to sneak into, even for Redskins games back when it first opened.

I know this is hard for some people to fathom, but I like both of those teams equally, but I root more heavily for the one I think has the better chance of accomplishing something in the postseason.

Right, you're a front runner.

I know this is hard for some people to fathom, but I like both of those teams equally, but I root more heavily for the one I think has the better chance of accomplishing something in the postseason.

Right, you're a front runner.

Right, in order to prove my sincerity I was obliged to root for the Orioles against the Yankees last weekend, and the Yankees against the Orioles last September, when the Yankees were out of the picture and the Orioles were in the thick of the fight. Never mind that I root for both of them when they're playing any of the other 28 teams.

It's a strategy that makes perfect sense----if you're a Red Sox fan.

Deleted. Not going to bother.

Deleted. Not going to bother.

Now if I could only get that goddam team of yours to adopt a similar attitude. But yet they persist.

Now if I could only get that goddam team of yours to adopt a similar attitude. But yet they persist.

Wouldn't it just be easier to make them your third AL East team?

Wouldn't it just be easier to make them your third AL East team?

He wants to be sure they win the division before he jumps on the bandwagon.

Wouldn't it just be easier to make them your 15th third AL East team?

That just about fixes it. I'd root for them in the World Series against any team but the Nats.

So what do you all do when the Red Sox don't win the division, other than cry or sit on the couch?** Just tune out from baseball for the rest of the year? And if they get knocked out early in the postseason? Do you just switch to the Patriots?

** Which is about where I am right about now, after that Goins grand slam, only it's the couch next door.

So what do you all do when the Red Sox don't win the division, other than cry or sit on the couch?** Just tune out from baseball for the rest of the year? And if they get knocked out early in the postseason? Do you just switch to the Patriots?

Either pick a team to root for in each round, or just watch and root for good baseball.

So what do you all do when the Red Sox don't win the division, other than cry or sit on the couch?** Just tune out from baseball for the rest of the year? And if they get knocked out early in the postseason? Do you just switch to the Patriots?

Either pick a team to root for in each round, or just watch and root for good baseball.

Which is exactly what I do if the Yankees and the Orioles have been eliminated. I'm not sure what the difference is, although apparently some people seem to think that it's only permissible to like one team.

That is a big big night. Finally that three game lead shifted and it shifted the right way.

Not entirely related but am I insane or is Jonny Gomes the best of the guest announcers? I’ve enjoyed him.

Welp. Better spot than 4 hours ago, for sure.

But, man, 35 HRs is a hell of a lot of HRs. Is there ANY justification for Porcello being on the postseason roster? Because I don't see it. Hell, I'd rather see Price start and go 3 IP followed by Fister than see Porcello serving up balls on tees for HRs in playoff games.

Jose--is there a reason why Eck hasn't done more games? I suppose I'd agree Gomes is the best of the rest but... it's a pretty low bar.

How do they resolve this issue in 2018? I mean obviously I'm sure they hope Remy is OK, etc. but it really seems like they need a better plan B than "random ex-Red Sox players" (which is how the back half of the season has felt).

4 up with 9 to go means pretty much Yankees have no room for error now--they need to go 8-1 while Red Sox go 4-5 just to tie and force a playoff.

Is there ANY justification for Porcello being on the postseason roster?

4 years/$82.5M (2016-19).

I think Eck just doesn’t want to. Everything I’ve ever read says he doesn’t really want the regular gig. I’m not a huge Eck fan, I think he would be GREAT as a weekly guy but his shtick grates on me pretty quickly.

My guess is health permitting that Remy is the home announcer next year. They’ve been doing this for what, five years now? It seems to be working out. I think that they probably had Lyons tabbed as Remy’s guy but I suspect his Red Sox career is over now. Who is at Pawtucket these days? They’ve pulled play by play guys from there (Kurtz, Orsillo) so maybe they go that route?

I’ll admit I watch a LOT more games with no sound now. I’m not a huge O’Brien fan and without Remy...meh. But I’m watching which is all they want. I really have no idea. I think Remy at home and random guy on the road wouldn’t feel so jarring. According to a friend when they went to Tampa they didn’t have anyone until the day before when Saltalamacchia stepped up. That couldn’t have been fun.

Tl;dr - I have no ####### idea. (That’s the kind of insight that makes me such a great Sox Therapy blogger).

As for Porcello he came into tonight with a 4.00 ERA since the break. How he gets there (good-bad-good-bad) is fairly annoying but I still have more confidence in him than Fister. Without much thought if they are in a division series (knock on wood, throw salt, spit) then I think all five starters are on the roster with the odd man out as the long man/emergency guy. I suspect they just don’t know yet.

FWIW he’s been pretty good on the road (3.43 coming into tonight) so that might play into how he gets used.

Tl;dr - see the same note in #43.

Not entirely related but am I insane or is Jonny Gomes the best of the guest announcers?

Or?

Gomes has been the best of the bunch, by far, and not just because some of the others (e.g. Salty) have been awful. Gomes is adding color, talking strategy and tactics, giving good when-I-was-playing anecdotes, and has an entertaining personality. But you might also be insane.

(That’s the kind of insight that makes me such a great Sox Therapy blogger)

We're watching, which is all they want.

Is there ANY justification for Porcello being on the postseason roster? Because I don't see it. Hell, I'd rather see Price start and go 3 IP followed by Fister than see Porcello serving up balls on tees for HRs in playoff games.

They don't need him in the first round, and hopefully he can get a break and get straightened out before the next round (if they make it, of course).

I’m not insane, the voices in my head are always telling me I’m fine.

Jose/vi--In a Game 4 (assuming Sale/Pomeranz/EdRod start 1-3), why not let Price start and go 3-4 IP (50-60 pitches)--assuming they think he can go that long--and then mix and match/ try Porcello/Fister for 1 IP each... Given both Porcello & Fister have the unique ability to give up crooked numbers early in a game, NOT starting either of them seems a safer bet (especially in a playoff setting).

I mean, you know Sale is going in Games 1 & 5, and I get that maybe you don't want to blow out the bullpen in a Game 4, but (a) if you're down 2-1, who cares if you blow out the bullpen to get to a Game 5, and (b) you'd have Sale going in any Game 5 + 1 day of rest for the bullpen in between Games 4 & 5.

Anyway, I think figuring out the roster is going to be a very interesting problem. A question along these lines... in the days of the 15-day DL, it seemed (somewhat) reasonable that if you DL'd a guy during the playoffs the deal was he missed the next series... But in the world of the 10-day DL, if you DL'd a guy after Game 1 of the ALCS (as an example), he'd technically have 10 days on the DL by the time Game 1 of the World Series rolled around; it seems awfully harsh to have different DL rules in the playoffs than the regular season. (And yes, I get there'd be shenanigans, but there are shenanigans now too during the regular season...) I suspect nothing has changed with regard to the DL in the playoffs, but with the shorter DL (especially the concussion DL), automatically making a guy miss the World Series if he has to go on the concussion DL after Game 1/Game 2 of the ALCS seems very harsh (especially if they have fully recovered).

Jose/vi--In a Game 4 (assuming Sale/Pomeranz/EdRod start 1-3), why not let Price start and go 3-4 IP (50-60 pitches)--assuming they think he can go that long--and then mix and match/ try Porcello/Fister for 1 IP each... Given both Porcello & Fister have the unique ability to give up crooked numbers early in a game, NOT starting either of them seems a safer bet (especially in a playoff setting).

Because one of those guys will probably not be good, and by pitching all 3, you'll find him. On the other hand, if you do decide to use those 3 guys, it would make sense strategically to go R-L-R. Make the opponent use their lefties in the starting lineup, dare them to pinch-hit against Price, then use the other righty.


Porcello's given up a lot HRs but he's a pretty average pitcher overall. And don't forgot, it's record-breaking HR year. Porcello's only 6th in the AL in HR/9. It's not pretty, but he's ok. I'd definitely have him on a short leash.


I can't believe how differently I feel about Gomes than everyone else. I find him really boring and bro-ish. Of all the replacements, I find Walker the best. He's a cliche machine but, unlike the others, I don't find him distracting and annoying. YMMV of course.


Oh and 4 game lead! Yay.

One huge disadvantage that Porcello has in terms of allowing HRs--he never gets to face the Red Sox.

Not entirely related but am I insane or is Jonny Gomes the best of the guest announcers? I’ve enjoyed him.

Really? He was easily the worst (John Valentin just seemed uncomfortable and his Jersey accent just seems weird on a Boston-centric broacast), a bad voice that not only says little but thuddingly obvious things, but says them multiple times in a game/series because he seems to have so little material (I think he made sure the audience understood why a sacrifice has that name three times one game), and he brings out the worst in O'Brien's tendency to lean hard on "peaking too soon", "protecting your guys by hitting opposing players", and other malarkey that makes for a good narrative but not much else.

Of the subs, Walker seems the smoothest and DiNardo seemed to have the most potential; I wouldn't be surprised if he was basically Lyons's replacement next year. Saltalamacchia has kind of grown on me - at first he came off as basically a mumbler nervous about saying anything the could be held against him if he tried to return as a player next year, but I liked him in the Rays series where he started to let the eccentric personality out.

Sept. 23:

1945 last game: Jimmie Foxx
1945 2,000 games as manager: Joe Cronin: 1,049-932
1964 WAS 1, BOX 0 in MLB debut for Don Loun, WAS starter. He appears in only one more game & this is his only win
1969 BOX fires Dick Williams
1969 200 homers: Carl Yastrzemski
1973 In the bottom of the 4th, Luis Tiant fans Al Kaline, dropping career avg to .299476 (2860/9550) undr .300 forever. (Tiant also did this to Mantle: 7.28.68)
1979 6th inning single gives Jim Rice all-time high career AVG: 973/3,131: .311061
2014 BOX win their 5th straight game - and have scored exactly 5 runs in all the games. That's never happened before

Of the subs, Walker seems the smoothest and DiNardo seemed to have the most potential; I wouldn't be surprised if he was basically Lyons's replacement next year.

I agree with this completely.

Because one of those guys will probably not be good, and by pitching all 3, you'll find him.

I agree with this completely.

1945 last game: Jimmie Foxx

I agree with this completely.

in the days of the 15-day DL, it seemed (somewhat) reasonable that if you DL'd a guy during the playoffs the deal was he missed the next series... But in the world of the 10-day DL, if you DL'd a guy after Game 1 of the ALCS (as an example), he'd technically have 10 days on the DL by the time Game 1 of the World Series rolled around; it seems awfully harsh to have different DL rules in the playoffs than the regular season. (And yes, I get there'd be shenanigans, but there are shenanigans now too during the regular season...)

During the regular season the player misses at least 10 games. That's a stiff price to pay for roster shenanigans with healthy players. In a playoff series the tradeoff is different, as a team might not have more than one game left without the shenanigans. I think with the DL stint being shorter it should be 10 days or the entire next series, whichever is shorter.

Regarding concussions... I am the father of a kid who got a concussion in high school. I am far less concerned with someone being restricted despite maybe being OK than I am about making sure the player isn't rushed back before his brain is ready.

Well, an 8-1 road trip was a good idea.

Magic number 3!

What an outrageously fun game to watch though. First Hamilton's baserunning display, then Betts with the double to tie and his heads up baserunning to put them ahead.

Really? He was easily the worst (John Valentin just seemed uncomfortable and his Jersey accent just seems weird on a Boston-centric broacast),

Salty was the runaway winner of “easily the worst.” Valentin, meanwhile, had to be overjoyed that Salty had set such a low standard, because as the second place finisher he was as far behind the mediocre 3rd worst Lenny DiNardo as Salty was behind him.

Gomes was the best of the lot but leaned far too much on his stock cliche “but at the end of the day.” You’d hope some time with a competent producer would break him of this if he was actually serious about doing the job on any kind of regular basis.

Nifty comeback combo with Sox and Patriots this afternoon.

That run-down was soooo bad. Moreland has it about right, but Pedroia doesn't run him back nearly far enough and then throws wide before anyone is covering. And from there, yikes. What a super-fun player to watch Hamilton is.

And then there's Betts, who looks himself again.

It would be nice to wrap up the division *before* the Houston series starts... <ducks>

Unbelievable weekend and really what a road trip.33-15 since the deadline which is rather pleasant.

Magic number is now 3.

But still, the Sox could finish as the #1 seed, the #2 seed, the #3 seed, or wild card game host. And if they keep their current spot as the #3 seed, their opponent could either be Cleveland or Astros.

Also, it's a long-shot, but it would be great to leapfrog the Astros in the playoff seeding, against the Astros, before subsequently playing the Astros. That would be a lot of Fenway mojo going into the LDS.

It's likely that if they finish with the same record, the Sox would win the tiebreaker.