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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Monday, June 12, 2023

That Was a Week

I’ll say this, my fears that the Boston Red Sox would not be interesting in 2023 have been put to bed pretty strongly.  They aren’t particularly, y’know, good.  But they have been interesting and entertaining which is about as good as it gets I suppose all things considered.  The Sox had what can best be described as a challenging week, really a week and a half when you factor in the Tampa series, and I think all things considered 3-3 on the trip through Cleveland and the Bronx was kind of what the Sox would have wanted when the week started.  Having said that there were a few things worth discussing;

- I don’t care what Fox and ESPN say, Red Sox-Yankees is not anything close to an elite series right now.  Yeah there’s history and I understand how ratings work but man this series is not worth prime time slots let alone four in two weeks (guess what this coming week’s Sunday night game is).  As chronicled at length here the Sox are mediocre and the Yankees frankly are not anything special.  Once Aaron Judge comes out of that lineup it falls apart quickly.  They are 30-19 with him, 8-10 without him.

- From a Sox perspective the biggest news about this week is how they arrived at their wins.  The games they won were started by; Garrett Whitlock, James Paxton and Brayan Bello.  The games they lost were started by Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck (who pitched well) and Matt Dermody.  As a Sox fan that is quite encouraging.  Bello was basically a fluke bounce away from 7 shutout innings in the Bronx and Whitlock was excellent.  The Sox have to feel good about the way the pitching is developing so far.

- Let’s talk about Dermody for a moment.  Look, I understand the whole “stick to sports” thing but man that is so tired.  From the National Anthem to God Bless America to Soldier of the Game to camouflage uniforms to…well whatever, teams have pandered to popular opinion for time immemorial.  “Dermody was just sharing his beliefs.”  Yes yes he was and if he said the same thing except about soldiers or the police the same people defending him would be outraged.

But here’s the thing I find fascinating.  If you’re the Sox, why do you waste your time on this?  Why let this be a story?  I’m not naive, I get how the world works and if you are good enough at your job you can do whatever you want.  Mookie Betts could wipe his ass with an American flag and Dodger fans would cope.  But why on earth do you let a story like this happen for Matt Freakin’ Dermody?  Are you telling me Joe Jaques (whoever he is) or Chris Murphy or Brennan Bernardino couldn’t have been the opener in Cleveland?  I’m not outraged from a human perspective (well I am but I accept that not everyone shares my views on the LGBTQIA+ community) but just from a business perspective.  If you are going to take the hit, take it for a guy who is an important part of the organization.  Tanner Houck is an unvaccinated putz but he’s pretty good.  I’d bet he thinks Dermody is right on.  Maybe not but if he does, hey you take the hit for a guy who will hopefully part of your rotation for the next few years, not for Matt Dermody. Dermody is gone and I don’t want this to be the focus of this but I wanted to get it off my chest.  The Sox lack of PR awareness in recent years has been astounding.

- Bad news out of the minor leagues where Miguel Bleis’ season appears to be over due to a left shoulder injury.  Left shoulders are not the Red Sox friend right now.  This sucks of course but Bleis is ahead of schedule and assuming he can come back next year he will be a 20 year old starting in Hi A and ready to shoot to AA in short order.  Assuming a full recovery, and I’ve seen nothing to suggest that’s not the expectation, his timetable should not be heavily altered.

- The benching of Alex Verdugo was certainly an interesting turn of events.  I didn’t think his effort on that play was THAT bad and Cora wasn’t so outraged that he yanked him immediately, he let him play the inning in the field before sitting him down.  Cora and Verdugo seem to have a really good relationship and I can’t help but feel like Cora was perhaps genuinely upset with the effort but also felt like he wanted to send a message to the team and used Verdugo as his whipping boy.  Maybe not, maybe this is the culmination of something but I don’t recall reading any stories this year or seeing anything alarming about Verdugo’s effort.

- Rafael Devers had some great swings this weekend and hopefully is coming to life.  The Sox need the bats to get going.  Since May 1 the only hitters with an OPS over .800 are Rob Refsnyder (.974 in 55 PA), Masataka Yoshida (.848 in 154) and Connor Wong (.811 in 84).  Justin Turner (.795), Triston Casas (.785) and Verdugo (.756) are the only others above .750.  Verdugo is a guy I see talked about a lot and I think part of the problem with him is one of perception.  He should not be one of your top players.  He’s Trot Nixon, he’s Andrew Benintendi, that’s a useful and important player but he should not be leading your team in WAR.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 12, 2023 at 10:17 AM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. The Duke Posted: June 12, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6132466)
Boston is 3-9 against NL Central and Oakland is 6-6 against the NL Central
   2. Darren Posted: June 12, 2023 at 01:19 PM (#6132469)
3-9 is bad. I wish it were better.

   3. Darren Posted: June 12, 2023 at 01:21 PM (#6132470)
I think you nailed it with the Dermody thing. They couldn't exactly release him after finding out about the tweet, apparently he was contrite, and he hasn't done it since (I think?). So you don't release him, but you don't have to promote him to the Majors for a spots start.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 12, 2023 at 01:49 PM (#6132473)
The good news is the Sox only have three games left against the NL Central! Look out Tampa!
   5. villageidiom Posted: June 12, 2023 at 02:19 PM (#6132483)
Cora and Verdugo seem to have a really good relationship and I can’t help but feel like Cora was perhaps genuinely upset with the effort but also felt like he wanted to send a message to the team and used Verdugo as his whipping boy.  Maybe not, maybe this is the culmination of something but I don’t recall reading any stories this year or seeing anything alarming about Verdugo’s effort.
I'm sure it was intended to light a spark under the team ahead of the Yankees series.
They couldn't exactly release him after finding out about the tweet, apparently he was contrite, and he hasn't done it since (I think?). So you don't release him, but you don't have to promote him to the Majors for a spots start.
If they couldn't release him after finding out about the tweet then the tweet will always be a thing if/when he was to be promoted eventually. Like, at this point nobody discusses Verdugo's connection to sexual assault with the Dodgers, but if he'd remained in the minors all along and got promoted to MLB last week you can be damn sure it would be a hot topic for however long it would take for people to realize he was not present when the assault happened. Dermody's comment would be a thing whenever he was promoted. They essentially forced the conversation, possibly to make it easier to address it and move past it.

I think one could easily argue it was bad optics to do all this at the start of pride month.
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 12, 2023 at 03:08 PM (#6132489)
In terms of why they brought up Dermody (who besides the tweet problem was also not a very good AAA pitcher this year), their AAA roster problems have been exposed a few times in the last week.

Dermody is not (nor was he at any point this year) on the 40-man roster. The team is short on rested arms on any given day right now, especially before Whitlock and Bello's strong starts in NY. Once they used Chris Murphy for several innings in the Cleveland series, they needed to send Murphy down immediately and use that 40th spot on the 40-man to bring up a guy from AAA who could:

1) Be an opener for them the next night, and
2) could be DFA'ed immediately after the game with no real risk of being picked up by another team.

The only other guy besides Murphy in AAA who has started any games recently for Worcester, and is on the 40-man, is Brandon Walter...who has been awful. So Dermody was both rested and...oddly...bad enough that nobody was going to grab him after the game when he was DFA'ed.

Today, the 40th spot is being filled by Joe Jacques, to give them bullpen depth.

Here's another oddity about the AAA roster: There are only two positions player on the team who are also on the 40-man roster: Enmanuel Valdez, and Bobby Dalbec. That means that any other position player besides those two guys who would get called up would have to grab a 40-man spot to be brought up - and those end-of-the-40 spots are held preciously for this pitching carousel the team is spinning right now.

The back of their 40-man is filled with pitchers who provide very little value to the team, and have very little trade value - but take up valuable roster space:
- Brandon Walter
- Bryan Mata
- Brennan Bernadino
- Justin Garza
- Rusty Bleier
- Joe Jacques
- Ryan Sherriff
- Corey Kluber
- Kaleb Ort

It's not like teams have a bunch of future all-stars on the back end of their 40-man rosters, either, but where I am beginning to get impatient with the Bloom regime is that we are almost four years in, and that is our depth? Pretty weak, and it means that when we get some injuries, we are unable to deal with it very well.
   7. pikepredator Posted: June 12, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6132492)
the young pitching taking center stage is exciting for sure. I remember being excited when Buccholz came up, but that was many moons ago.

Finally, it seems there are several young pitchers were getting my hopes up over!

I don't think the lineup was as good as it looked at the beginning of the year. And I don't think it's quite as bad as it looked recently, either. I will always think leaving 11 guys on base (while painful in the moment) is a good thing . . . like hitting into DPs, at least guys are getting on base.

The crisp pace of these last three sox-yanks game was refreshing. And listening to it on the radio saved my eyeballs the pain of watching some of the shoddy play!
   8. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 13, 2023 at 02:56 PM (#6132655)
I don't think the lineup was as good as it looked at the beginning of the year. And I don't think it's quite as bad as it looked recently, either. I will always think leaving 11 guys on base (while painful in the moment) is a good thing . . . like hitting into DPs, at least guys are getting on base.



Since beating Tampa 8 to 5 in the first game of their series they are 13 for 86 w/RISP. As you said leaving people on base is a good sign and they will fix that simply through dumb luck if nothing else.
   9. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: June 13, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6132665)
Bernardino has been pretty good, at least in the games I saw him pitch.
   10. pikepredator Posted: June 13, 2023 at 05:27 PM (#6132673)
Cap'n: recently my mom and I were texting about Bernadino and Winckowski. I felt more confident in the latter while she felt the former was more reliable.

seeing your post, I checked their stats and they are remarkably similar. Bernadino's K rate is the only real difference in my surface-level "analysis" -

B: 19 innings, 18H, 6 ER, 4BB, 18K, 2HR, OPS .656
W: 38 innings, 36H, 10 ER, 9BB, 28K, 3HR, OPS .640

   11. John DiFool2 Posted: June 14, 2023 at 11:42 AM (#6132769)
Brandon Walter


He was looking awesome last year-before he got injured.
   12. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: June 14, 2023 at 06:28 PM (#6132879)
Bernadino and Winckowski


They've both been ok. I've said many times that a bullpen is only as good as the starting rotation allows it to be. A rested bullpen is more effective than a tired worn out bullpen.
   13. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 19, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6133642)
I do not understand why Kaleb Ort is on the team. He is not good.

That aside, always nice to sweep the Yankees!
   14. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 19, 2023 at 10:18 AM (#6133645)
I do not understand why Kaleb Ort is on the team. He is not good.


Have you seen the other pitchers on this team? It's not like he's taking innings away from Smokey Joe Wood. I'm not happy about it either but the options are not ideal.

Man that was a fun weekend though. Be kinda cool to have multiple days in a row where it doesn't ####### rain though. WTF
   15. pikepredator Posted: June 19, 2023 at 10:24 AM (#6133646)
yeah if you told me Ort started and a journeyman + Pivetta pitched innings 3-8 and the final score was 6-2 I'd be quite sure the Red Sox lost that game . . . quite the sweep! Another great start by Bello. They're still in last but those three teams are bunched up. Could be up in a WC spot after another week! 6 games against twins and white sox is a chance to make up some more ground for sure.

With this latest surge, the Sox have quite a few players right around .800 OPS, which explains the "who will be the star today?" nature of the team. nobody is standing out (it would be nice if Devers would take that role . . .) but a number of players are contributing above-average offense, which makes for a lot of fun.

Father's Day doubleheader . . . I enjoyed that a lot.
   16. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 19, 2023 at 10:53 AM (#6133650)
Four regulars (Casas, Turner, Macho Man, Verdugo) are over .800 OPS since May 1 and Refsnyder leads the pack though only 67 PA. Devers is at .775 and Wong .792 as well. Duran only .691 but a .326 OBP I can live with. Not anything great but an adequate player which is a lot better than I was anticipating.

But by far the best thing happening this year so far is Bello I think. He's living up to expectations pretty well. There will almost certainly be a bit of a skid at some point but it's encouraging. His GB rate would lead the American League if eligible and he's succeeding with a defense that can best be described as offensive.
   17. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 19, 2023 at 11:24 AM (#6133653)
Have you seen the other pitchers on this team? It's not like he's taking innings away from Smokey Joe Wood. I'm not happy about it either but the options are not ideal.


Pitchers with a worse ERA+ than Ort, from worst to Ort:

Joely Rodriguez - working his way back from injury. I've mentioned before the org actually thought he may be decent with the $4.25M option for next year. Pretty big miss so far.
Zack Littell - waived
Ryan Brasier - waived
Pablo Reyes - not a pitcher
Corey Kluber - demoted to pen, obviously a bad signing in retrospect, but he at least has a history of being a solid pitcher
Matt Dermody - waived

So yeah, other than Kluber, Ort is literally the worst pitcher on the team. Give all of his innings to Chris Murphy, or call up Ryan Fernandez, he's been having a good year, try him out.
   18. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 19, 2023 at 01:06 PM (#6133675)
I appreciate that this team is spunky (or "plucky", or "scrappy", etc.) enough to be hanging around the WC hunt into the latter part of June. I agree that Bello's continued development is tremendous news; less important, but still really great to see for the longer term, is that both Winckowski and Murphy are going from ineffective starters to potential legit pieces in the bullpen.

Wong is proving to be a useful piece going forward (at least as a quality backup catcher, if not more?). Casas continues to trend upward - since May 3rd, he's .265/.370/.444, taking fewer walks but clearly swinging at a lot more hittable pitches than he was in April. He'll be fine.

We are now in the three months of the year between the end of playoff basketball and hockey, and the elephant that is the NFL, where baseball is the show. In years where the Red Sox are not competitive or interesting, it is such a bummer, because it's so easy to focus on the sport. Casas, Bello, Yoshida, and others are a lot of fun to watch, and the games matter. In 2023, that is all I wanted.
   19. The Mighty Quintana Posted: June 19, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6133684)
A sweep of the Yankees! Life is good. However, I will not change my original assessment of Ort....he should be launched into the sun. But Chris Murphy should be up to stay - he looks nasty on lefties.
   20. Darren Posted: June 19, 2023 at 03:31 PM (#6133700)
Bello's success so far is great and maybe the highlight of the season to this point. On a related note, Cora is sticking with starters longer than I expected. In this past start, I thought Bello looked done in the sixth, but he got out of it and Cora even brought him back for the 7th and allowed him to finish that inning as well, despite a few baserunners. I've been similarly surprised with his willingness to push Sale (back to back 110+ pitches, using him while he was sick), and Paxton (100+ pitches 3 times).

   21. Darren Posted: June 19, 2023 at 03:35 PM (#6133703)
Verdugo's resurgence has been nice as well: .385/.429/.513 in the games since his benching. Still no power, but he's spraying line drives all over the place, playing good defense, and leading the league with 24 doubles.
   22. Darren Posted: June 19, 2023 at 03:42 PM (#6133704)
On the negative side, I really thought a 37-35 record would give the Red Sox a pretty good shot at a wild-card spot, but this division is even tougher than I thought it would be. Even after the sweep, they're still behind Tampa Bay, Baltimore (44-27!), NY, and Toronto. They also trail Houston and LA from the West. According to FG, this leaves them with a 21 percent chance to make the playoffs, which sounds about right unfortunately.
   23. villageidiom Posted: June 19, 2023 at 06:27 PM (#6133752)
Verdugo's resurgence has been nice as well: .385/.429/.513 in the games since his benching.
The team is 6-3 since then, after a 3-8 stretch (or a 9-16 stretch if you want to extend further back). His benching might have been the spark they needed.
   24. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 19, 2023 at 07:15 PM (#6133756)
On the negative side, I really thought a 37-35 record would give the Red Sox a pretty good shot at a wild-card spot,


Last year on 6/19/22 the Sox were 36-31, 13.5 games back of NY and 3rd in the AL East, ahead of Baltimore. They were 7th in the AL, .537 win %, with a pythag of .573. The last WC spot went to Tampa with 86 wins, with a .531 win%.

This year they are 37-35, 12.5 games back of TB and 4th in the AL East. They are 8th in the AL, .514 win %, with a pythag of .523. Means they need to go 49-41 (.544) to get to 86.


I do think this team is better positioned than last years, other than the gaping hole at SS, but I'm still not seeing the WC as much of a shot. With Oakland being SO bad there's more wins for WC potential teams to be had, I don't think 86 does it this year.
   25. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: June 19, 2023 at 07:23 PM (#6133758)
I don't care how they finish the year (assuming the don't suffer a complete collapse). They're on the right track, and if/when they plug a few holes in the D, and add a couple of solid starters, they will be right back in the mix.

Some dope on the local news said that Bloom's job was in danger if they didn't make the playoffs this year, and they should be buyers at the deadline. Bloom's team is better than expected, and yes if they can land a good SS at the trade deadline they should, but his job is as safe as a healthy Pope's.
   26. Darren Posted: June 20, 2023 at 11:29 AM (#6133862)
Another bright spot: Jarren Duran has turned things around. After hitting about .150 for a couple weeks, he's hitting over .400/.500/.600 for the past couple of weeks, with a bunch of doubles. Nice to see and gives us hope he's for real.
   27. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: June 20, 2023 at 12:29 PM (#6133878)
Duran puzzles me. He's a big guy, but when he's at his best, he's hitting line drives, not long fly balls that leave the yard. Plus, he's a minus defender, by the eye test. He's worthy of a roster spot because he's streaky, I guess? And he runs well, so it's fun when he gets on base. In a perfect world they replace the SS and the CF with real bonafide starters*.


I'm sold on Casas and Wong. They are keepers.


*as opposed to fake bonafide starters.
   28. pikepredator Posted: June 20, 2023 at 12:51 PM (#6133884)
Agreed on Casas and Wong. Both have been easy to root for and seem to be trending upwards. Young kids doing well never gets old.
   29. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 20, 2023 at 12:56 PM (#6133885)
One thing about Bloom: It seems like you never have to worry he'll become delusional about a team's chances of a deep playoff run and sell the farm for Larry Andersen or something.

In hindsight, when he made the deadline deals last season, he was playing the long game more than it may have appeared at the time. He basically traded Vazquez and Diekman for McGuire and three prospects. Getting rid of Diekman was addition by subtraction - he had not pitched well, and they were on the hook for another $4.5m in 2023+option buyout - and they got cheaper and younger at catcher with team control of McGuire, plus two decent prospects and a pitching lottery ticket (Taylor Broadway).

I could see Bloom doing similar moves this deadline, particularly if the team were to revert a little below .500 again. Duvall, Turner, Paxton, and Martin are pretty high-quality, short-term money, veteran pickups that would probably draw deadline interest - and none of them are long-term solutions for Boston (unless they wanted to try to extend Paxton for a few years?).

Again, though, pretty happy that are competing while getting some young guys in the mix.
   30. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 20, 2023 at 02:51 PM (#6133920)

I'm sold on Casas and Wong. They are keepers.


I'll be happy to be wrong about Wong (I don't think he's going to hit), and he's at least doing well behind the plate, but if you take out that one 4-4 2HR game on May 2 he has something like a .673 OPS - .675 prior to the game, and .672 after. I know the game counts just as much as others, and maybe he can do it again, but I am still not sold on his ability over the course of a season. Maybe an 80-85 OPS+ gets it done at C, and it's not a negative, but it doesn't really add much value, other than 'ok at C, let's spend $ somewhere else'.
   31. Darren Posted: June 20, 2023 at 03:07 PM (#6133925)
Duran's defense seems at least decent if not better to me. But given his size and build, even think Duran's defense is fine now, I could see him quickly outgrow CF. Keep him in center and see what he can do until Rafaela is ready (next year?), then make that decision.



   32. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 20, 2023 at 03:11 PM (#6133927)
Over the last three years there have been 129 catchers who played 45 games or more in a season (Wong is at 45 now). An 85 OPS+ would be 71st overall, an 80 would be 81st. So somewhere between 37th and 45th percentile. Add in that he seems to be an above average defender and I think that's satisfactory without even accounting for "that doesn't include his best game." FWIW Christian Vazquez has a career OPS+ of 84.
   33. Darren Posted: June 20, 2023 at 03:28 PM (#6133932)
Why are we so intent on slicing and dicing Wong's splits? I know you copped to it immediately jacksone, just noticing a general trend.

Here's another Wong split:

Last 28 days: .259/.355/.482

That period doesn't include his magical 3 period that we're all so quick to dismiss. He definitely took a dip after those games but he's recovered very nicely!

Maybe an 80-85 OPS+ gets it done at C, and it's not a negative, but it doesn't really add much value, other than 'ok at C, let's spend $ somewhere else'


It's not pretty, but it's easy to forget how bad catchers are at hitting. An 80-85 OPS+ probably does get it done, especially for a good defensive catcher. But it seems like Wong is better than that. He is hitting .239/.306/.445, which is practically identical to his preseason ZIPS: .258/.304/.435. If he can stay somewhere around that, he's a legit averagish starting catcher at league minimum.








   34. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 20, 2023 at 04:51 PM (#6133948)
#33 -
I am not trying to splice and dice his splits, just pointing out just how much of an impact a single game has on our view of his season. That game is adding .080 to his OPS for the season, instead of his current .751, he's ony .673. And again, that is OK at C! At his age and salary that's great if the team can lock in an average position, I just don't think he is going to be much of a difference maker. Am happy to be wrong.
   35. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 20, 2023 at 08:45 PM (#6133981)
Wong and McGuire are relatively young, low wear-and-tear, inexpensive catchers - a position where the farm system is lacking in prospects who project as major-league catchers.

Whereas the team appears to be unsuccessfully trying to cheap out at SS for 2023-2024 until Mayer is ready; and whereas the team unsuccessfully tried to cheap out at 1B in 2021-2022 until Casas was ready; it seems like Bloom has come up with a sustainable, cheap solution for the next few years at catcher. They aren't awesome, but they are fine.
   36. Darren Posted: June 20, 2023 at 08:56 PM (#6133982)
But why? Why pluck that game out of the middle of his season? There's nothing special about it except that it includes four of his hits. How is it different from just ignoring at bats where he hit home runs? It's sort of the definition of slicing and dicing his splits.

Maybe he's this good as a hitter, maybe he's not. But I don't see how remind that game tells us one way or another.

   37. villageidiom Posted: June 20, 2023 at 10:46 PM (#6134001)
Don't ask jacksone about Christian Arroyo after tonight's game. :-)

   38. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 21, 2023 at 07:20 AM (#6134020)
But why? Why pluck that game out of the middle of his season? There's nothing special about it except that it includes four of his hits. How is it different from just ignoring at bats where he hit home runs? It's sort of the definition of slicing and dicing his splits.


Because that one single game is reminiscent of Drew's $14M Slam or Jack Morris's G7 that essentially got him into the HOF - it's having a huge effect on how Wong is seen as a hitter. With the game he's a building block, without he is OK. Take it for what you will, I am just explaining why I am still not sold on him - I mean, he's done better than I would have thought, he's provided some chance at stability to the position, so great, but I don't think he is as important to the team as Casas is.

And that aside - come on, removing one game from someone is not slicing and dicing splits. I am not picking 'the last 28 days' to suit my narrative, as adding in the 29th, 30th, and 31st days adds an 0-9 with no BB and 1 HBP to his line, but surely you knew that. Nor are his stats all different before and after the game, suggesting some huge fix that happened - his season before was .671, and after .673. That leads me to believe his true talent at the moment is probably closer to .670 than .750.
   39. Darren Posted: June 21, 2023 at 10:06 AM (#6134034)
And that aside - come on, removing one game from someone is not slicing and dicing splits.


It is. That's exactly what it is.

I am not picking 'the last 28 days' to suit my narrative, as adding in the 29th, 30th, and 31st days adds an 0-9 with no BB and 1 HBP to his line, but surely you knew that.


I used 28 days because it's what's listed on BBRef's splits page. It's a 4 week period. And your numbers are wrong. 28 days covered 5/23 to 6/19. Extending that to 31 days would cover the games of 5/20 and 5/22, where he went 2-7 with a double, and bring his line to: .262/.348/.475.

Because that one single game is reminiscent of Drew's $14M Slam or Jack Morris's G7 that essentially got him into the HOF - it's having a huge effect on how Wong is seen as a hitter.


Putting aside our petty bickering for a moment (but just a moment!), Wong has several years of professional baseball that we can draw on to see what kind of player he might *really* be. ZIPS and Steamer use that data to attempt to answer that question:

ZIPS pre-2023: .258/.304/.435
Steamer pre-2023: .244/.293/.413

Now, what do Wong's numbers look like with and without the magic game (thru 6/19):

Without Magic Game: .218/.289/.384
With Magic Game: .239/.306/.445

Given what we know about Wong's track record, which one of those makes more sense? Which is more in line with what we know about Wong?
   40. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: June 21, 2023 at 10:09 AM (#6134035)
Because that one single game is reminiscent of Drew's $14M Slam


JD Drew was a very good OF for the Red Sox. He followed up that slam with 2 years of OPS north of .900. Mister, we could use a man like JD Drew again (today).
   41. Darren Posted: June 21, 2023 at 10:25 AM (#6134036)
JD Drew was a very good OF for the Red Sox. He followed up that slam with 2 years of OPS north of .900. Mister, we could use a man like JD Drew again (today).


Didn't need no pitch spin rate,
Everybody hit their weight,
Gee, our guy Coco ran great,
Those were the days!
   42. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 21, 2023 at 11:34 AM (#6134044)

ZIPS pre-2023: .258/.304/.435
Steamer pre-2023: .244/.293/.413

Now, what do Wong's numbers look like with and without the magic game (thru 6/19):

Without Magic Game: .218/.289/.384
With Magic Game: .239/.306/.445

Given what we know about Wong's track record, which one of those makes more sense? Which is more in line with what we know about Wong?


All I am saying is ZIPS and Steamer are wrong. I have a better idea of how he will turn out. I will grudgingly admit my prediction that he would produce less value than Blake Swihart may be in danger of being slightly incorrect.
   43. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 21, 2023 at 11:43 AM (#6134049)

JD Drew was a very good OF for the Red Sox. He followed up that slam with 2 years of OPS north of .900. Mister, we could use a man like JD Drew again (today).


He was treated very, very poorly by a lot of Sox fans. So glad that level of bitterness is gone from most of the fan base.
   44. Darren Posted: June 21, 2023 at 11:54 AM (#6134052)
Me too! He was a good and interesting player, but not enough RBIs for the masses at the time.
   45. villageidiom Posted: June 21, 2023 at 02:14 PM (#6134100)
It wasn't even the RBIs as much as his demeanor after every groundout or strikeout appearing to be "meh, whatever". That obviously wasn't his attitude; it just appeared that way.

It's like the play last year in which Duran lost sight of the ball and it landed like 80 feet behind him. For two seconds the camera showed the ball on the ground by the wall and Duran just kinda staring at it instead of running it down, and then Verdugo races in to get it. What was obvious to Duran when he saw the ball was that Verdugo would obviously get there first. Verdugo being anywhere near the ball was not obvious to the TV viewer, so for a couple of seconds it appeared like Duran just didn't care. The TV viewer inferred a character flaw that simply wasn't there.
   46. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 21, 2023 at 03:56 PM (#6134137)
Drew just generally had that stoic behavior, which was multiplied by replacing the energetic dirt dog himself Trot Nixon. Then pile on that with the family issues Drew was dealing with (his son had some health issues) that no one knew about until after the fact, and yeah, to the general fan Drew got his money and was mailing it in. Turns out not to have been the best signing ever, but $70M for 11 WAR (12 WAR through the first 4 seasons) isn't going to sink your team.
   47. Nasty Nate Posted: June 21, 2023 at 04:30 PM (#6134150)
I'm sure I've said it before, but the fandom underrated Drew's first 4 years, but completely let him off the hook for 2011, so maybe it balances out?
   48. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 21, 2023 at 08:15 PM (#6134196)
I'm sure I've said it before, but the fandom underrated Drew's first 4 years, but completely let him off the hook for 2011, so maybe it balances out?


Sure, and maybe Bill Buckner doesn't have a completely rational hated for Boston. I mean, after all, he was forgiven.
   49. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: June 22, 2023 at 09:19 AM (#6134265)
Buckner...he dead.
   50. Nasty Nate Posted: June 22, 2023 at 10:56 AM (#6134284)
I'm sure I've said it before, but the fandom underrated Drew's first 4 years, but completely let him off the hook for 2011, so maybe it balances out?
Sure, and maybe Bill Buckner doesn't have a completely rational hated for Boston. I mean, after all, he was forgiven.
I didn't mean to comment on how Drew feels or felt about Boston. I don't ever remember him complaining, but if he did or does, I don't have any beef.
   51. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 22, 2023 at 11:37 AM (#6134296)
Tie game going into the bottom of the 10th, the designated set up man and closer have been used in the 8th and 9th innings, and who comes out for the Sox? The Ort Kloud! Yay! Sox lose! Shocker.
   52. Nasty Nate Posted: June 22, 2023 at 11:54 AM (#6134301)
Who exactly is the person in the ortanization than is an advocate for The Disaster Ortist? Is it Bloom himself? Some guy in the stats department? A Scout? Cora and the coaches?
   53. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM (#6134310)
Saw the Sea Dogs last night. Mayer went yard once and, in the previous at-bat, had another one pulled back from over the fence on a great play by the outfielder. Those were both off of Mick Abel from the Phillies system, who is a high level prospect (#34 on MLB.com's list). So anyway, I get to file away "got to see future Hall of Famer Marcelo Mayer hit a homerun in AA ball," which is nice.

Incidentally, man does legit pitching stand out at that level. Abel was throwing hard, consistently 97 on the in-stadium radar. Sea Dogs starter Isaac Coffey, on the other hand, was throwing batting practice- he gave up three doubles and a home run in 2 innings, plus several other hard hit balls.
   54. villageidiom Posted: June 22, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6134317)
Turns out not to have been the best signing ever, but $70M for 11 WAR (12 WAR through the first 4 seasons) isn't going to sink your team.
At the time one win was worth around $7 million in free agency. IMO it was a great signing.

Who exactly is the person in the ortanization than is an advocate for The Disaster Ortist? Is it Bloom himself? Some guy in the stats department? A Scout? Cora and the coaches?
He has kompromat on Wally.
   55. The Mighty Quintana Posted: June 22, 2023 at 05:35 PM (#6134392)
My scouting report still stands: Should be launched into the sun. Or at least into Ort-bit. (Sorry, showing myself out....)
   56. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: June 22, 2023 at 05:35 PM (#6134393)
At the time one win was worth around $7 million in free agency. IMO it was a great signing.



I agree, and the non-Sabr take is that without him, they likely wouldn't have beaten Cleveland in 2007.
   57. Darren Posted: June 22, 2023 at 06:01 PM (#6134397)
So, should this team trade for a frontline (#1-#2)starter? They need one now and they will need one in the years to come.
   58. The Mighty Quintana Posted: June 22, 2023 at 08:31 PM (#6134415)
I would stand pat....just let the young guys (and Paxton) pitch every fifth day. Hopefully Houck can come back this summer.
   59. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 23, 2023 at 09:19 AM (#6134535)

So, should this team trade for a frontline (#1-#2)starter? They need one now and they will need one in the years to come.


I am always happy to try and get more frontline pitching, but only if they've got control of the guy for 3 years at least, and those type of pitchers aren't typically available by trade.
   60. The Mighty Quintana Posted: June 23, 2023 at 11:51 AM (#6134561)
Umm, can I change my answer? I feel like I watched the JV staff last night. Neither Garza nor Walter are MLB-caliber pitchers.
   61. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: June 23, 2023 at 01:35 PM (#6134579)
So, should this team trade for a frontline (#1-#2)starter? They need one now and they will need one in the years to come.


Yes of course.

Acquiring a frontline starter is always a good thing. Of course as always the devil is in the details. Who could you get that you'd be willing to give up assets for and what assets are you willing to move? There is probably a post to be written on this subject but I'd say Mayer is all but untouchable, beyond him yeah I'll listen. But for me the key is control, that's why I wanted Berrios last year. You gotta kick the tires on the struggling Alcantara right but is he healthy? And are the Marlins willing to move him? These are the top 20 pitchers in ERA+ this yar and I can't see any of them getting moved. Most of them are on competitive teams (having good pitching makes you a better team, who would have thunk it) and of the other five, two of them are rentals and none of the other three is really that exciting.

NO because current teams won't do it; Elder, Valdez, McLanahan, Cole, Eovaldi, J. Gray, Ohtani, Castillo, Gausmann, Gallen, Kelly, Javier, Webb, Ryan, Kershaw

NO because of lack of long term control; Stroman, Smyly

NO because they really aren't that exciting; Wacha, Cobb, S. Gray

So what's left below that group? Alcantara, Corbin Burnes (1 year after this), Jordan Montgomery (FA after this year), Michael Kopech (through 2025 - dumb as a box of hammers, slightly less durable than Jed Lowrie), Shane Bieber (through 2024).

If that Mariners keep scuffling maybe you talk about Castillo but it's tough to find these guys. I think a front three of Bello, Houck, Whitlock can do a job, spend some money to round it out in talent and durability (Montgomery would be a great fit this winter).
   62. Darren Posted: June 23, 2023 at 01:55 PM (#6134580)
I feel like Lance Lynn could be had pretty cheaply. He's struggling this year but peripherals are a bit better. He's making $18.5 mil this year with a team option at $18 mil. next year. Would they take take someone like Dalbec and be glad to be rid of the salary?
   63. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 25, 2023 at 07:31 PM (#6134876)
What do all of you expect or hope for next year? Because for me, this team and organization is still a year away from legit contention. There may be a solid wild card run next in '24, but I am not expecting any sort of postseason success. 2025, for sure, I expect them to contend and be a legit force.

With that in mind, why get someone like Lynn that costs prospects and doesn't help '25? I mean, FA, go ####### wild, but don't give up assets for this year or the next.

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