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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Monday, June 12, 2023That Was a WeekI’ll say this, my fears that the Boston Red Sox would not be interesting in 2023 have been put to bed pretty strongly. They aren’t particularly, y’know, good. But they have been interesting and entertaining which is about as good as it gets I suppose all things considered. The Sox had what can best be described as a challenging week, really a week and a half when you factor in the Tampa series, and I think all things considered 3-3 on the trip through Cleveland and the Bronx was kind of what the Sox would have wanted when the week started. Having said that there were a few things worth discussing; - I don’t care what Fox and ESPN say, Red Sox-Yankees is not anything close to an elite series right now. Yeah there’s history and I understand how ratings work but man this series is not worth prime time slots let alone four in two weeks (guess what this coming week’s Sunday night game is). As chronicled at length here the Sox are mediocre and the Yankees frankly are not anything special. Once Aaron Judge comes out of that lineup it falls apart quickly. They are 30-19 with him, 8-10 without him. - From a Sox perspective the biggest news about this week is how they arrived at their wins. The games they won were started by; Garrett Whitlock, James Paxton and Brayan Bello. The games they lost were started by Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck (who pitched well) and Matt Dermody. As a Sox fan that is quite encouraging. Bello was basically a fluke bounce away from 7 shutout innings in the Bronx and Whitlock was excellent. The Sox have to feel good about the way the pitching is developing so far. - Let’s talk about Dermody for a moment. Look, I understand the whole “stick to sports” thing but man that is so tired. From the National Anthem to God Bless America to Soldier of the Game to camouflage uniforms to…well whatever, teams have pandered to popular opinion for time immemorial. “Dermody was just sharing his beliefs.” Yes yes he was and if he said the same thing except about soldiers or the police the same people defending him would be outraged. But here’s the thing I find fascinating. If you’re the Sox, why do you waste your time on this? Why let this be a story? I’m not naive, I get how the world works and if you are good enough at your job you can do whatever you want. Mookie Betts could wipe his ass with an American flag and Dodger fans would cope. But why on earth do you let a story like this happen for Matt Freakin’ Dermody? Are you telling me Joe Jaques (whoever he is) or Chris Murphy or Brennan Bernardino couldn’t have been the opener in Cleveland? I’m not outraged from a human perspective (well I am but I accept that not everyone shares my views on the LGBTQIA+ community) but just from a business perspective. If you are going to take the hit, take it for a guy who is an important part of the organization. Tanner Houck is an unvaccinated putz but he’s pretty good. I’d bet he thinks Dermody is right on. Maybe not but if he does, hey you take the hit for a guy who will hopefully part of your rotation for the next few years, not for Matt Dermody. Dermody is gone and I don’t want this to be the focus of this but I wanted to get it off my chest. The Sox lack of PR awareness in recent years has been astounding. - Bad news out of the minor leagues where Miguel Bleis’ season appears to be over due to a left shoulder injury. Left shoulders are not the Red Sox friend right now. This sucks of course but Bleis is ahead of schedule and assuming he can come back next year he will be a 20 year old starting in Hi A and ready to shoot to AA in short order. Assuming a full recovery, and I’ve seen nothing to suggest that’s not the expectation, his timetable should not be heavily altered. - The benching of Alex Verdugo was certainly an interesting turn of events. I didn’t think his effort on that play was THAT bad and Cora wasn’t so outraged that he yanked him immediately, he let him play the inning in the field before sitting him down. Cora and Verdugo seem to have a really good relationship and I can’t help but feel like Cora was perhaps genuinely upset with the effort but also felt like he wanted to send a message to the team and used Verdugo as his whipping boy. Maybe not, maybe this is the culmination of something but I don’t recall reading any stories this year or seeing anything alarming about Verdugo’s effort. - Rafael Devers had some great swings this weekend and hopefully is coming to life. The Sox need the bats to get going. Since May 1 the only hitters with an OPS over .800 are Rob Refsnyder (.974 in 55 PA), Masataka Yoshida (.848 in 154) and Connor Wong (.811 in 84). Justin Turner (.795), Triston Casas (.785) and Verdugo (.756) are the only others above .750. Verdugo is a guy I see talked about a lot and I think part of the problem with him is one of perception. He should not be one of your top players. He’s Trot Nixon, he’s Andrew Benintendi, that’s a useful and important player but he should not be leading your team in WAR. Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: June 12, 2023 at 10:17 AM | 63 comment(s)
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1. The Duke Posted: June 12, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6132466)If they couldn't release him after finding out about the tweet then the tweet will always be a thing if/when he was to be promoted eventually. Like, at this point nobody discusses Verdugo's connection to sexual assault with the Dodgers, but if he'd remained in the minors all along and got promoted to MLB last week you can be damn sure it would be a hot topic for however long it would take for people to realize he was not present when the assault happened. Dermody's comment would be a thing whenever he was promoted. They essentially forced the conversation, possibly to make it easier to address it and move past it.
I think one could easily argue it was bad optics to do all this at the start of pride month.
Dermody is not (nor was he at any point this year) on the 40-man roster. The team is short on rested arms on any given day right now, especially before Whitlock and Bello's strong starts in NY. Once they used Chris Murphy for several innings in the Cleveland series, they needed to send Murphy down immediately and use that 40th spot on the 40-man to bring up a guy from AAA who could:
1) Be an opener for them the next night, and
2) could be DFA'ed immediately after the game with no real risk of being picked up by another team.
The only other guy besides Murphy in AAA who has started any games recently for Worcester, and is on the 40-man, is Brandon Walter...who has been awful. So Dermody was both rested and...oddly...bad enough that nobody was going to grab him after the game when he was DFA'ed.
Today, the 40th spot is being filled by Joe Jacques, to give them bullpen depth.
Here's another oddity about the AAA roster: There are only two positions player on the team who are also on the 40-man roster: Enmanuel Valdez, and Bobby Dalbec. That means that any other position player besides those two guys who would get called up would have to grab a 40-man spot to be brought up - and those end-of-the-40 spots are held preciously for this pitching carousel the team is spinning right now.
The back of their 40-man is filled with pitchers who provide very little value to the team, and have very little trade value - but take up valuable roster space:
- Brandon Walter
- Bryan Mata
- Brennan Bernadino
- Justin Garza
- Rusty Bleier
- Joe Jacques
- Ryan Sherriff
- Corey Kluber
- Kaleb Ort
It's not like teams have a bunch of future all-stars on the back end of their 40-man rosters, either, but where I am beginning to get impatient with the Bloom regime is that we are almost four years in, and that is our depth? Pretty weak, and it means that when we get some injuries, we are unable to deal with it very well.
Finally, it seems there are several young pitchers were getting my hopes up over!
I don't think the lineup was as good as it looked at the beginning of the year. And I don't think it's quite as bad as it looked recently, either. I will always think leaving 11 guys on base (while painful in the moment) is a good thing . . . like hitting into DPs, at least guys are getting on base.
The crisp pace of these last three sox-yanks game was refreshing. And listening to it on the radio saved my eyeballs the pain of watching some of the shoddy play!
Since beating Tampa 8 to 5 in the first game of their series they are 13 for 86 w/RISP. As you said leaving people on base is a good sign and they will fix that simply through dumb luck if nothing else.
seeing your post, I checked their stats and they are remarkably similar. Bernadino's K rate is the only real difference in my surface-level "analysis" -
B: 19 innings, 18H, 6 ER, 4BB, 18K, 2HR, OPS .656
W: 38 innings, 36H, 10 ER, 9BB, 28K, 3HR, OPS .640
He was looking awesome last year-before he got injured.
They've both been ok. I've said many times that a bullpen is only as good as the starting rotation allows it to be. A rested bullpen is more effective than a tired worn out bullpen.
That aside, always nice to sweep the Yankees!
Have you seen the other pitchers on this team? It's not like he's taking innings away from Smokey Joe Wood. I'm not happy about it either but the options are not ideal.
Man that was a fun weekend though. Be kinda cool to have multiple days in a row where it doesn't ####### rain though. WTF
With this latest surge, the Sox have quite a few players right around .800 OPS, which explains the "who will be the star today?" nature of the team. nobody is standing out (it would be nice if Devers would take that role . . .) but a number of players are contributing above-average offense, which makes for a lot of fun.
Father's Day doubleheader . . . I enjoyed that a lot.
But by far the best thing happening this year so far is Bello I think. He's living up to expectations pretty well. There will almost certainly be a bit of a skid at some point but it's encouraging. His GB rate would lead the American League if eligible and he's succeeding with a defense that can best be described as offensive.
Pitchers with a worse ERA+ than Ort, from worst to Ort:
Joely Rodriguez - working his way back from injury. I've mentioned before the org actually thought he may be decent with the $4.25M option for next year. Pretty big miss so far.
Zack Littell - waived
Ryan Brasier - waived
Pablo Reyes - not a pitcher
Corey Kluber - demoted to pen, obviously a bad signing in retrospect, but he at least has a history of being a solid pitcher
Matt Dermody - waived
So yeah, other than Kluber, Ort is literally the worst pitcher on the team. Give all of his innings to Chris Murphy, or call up Ryan Fernandez, he's been having a good year, try him out.
Wong is proving to be a useful piece going forward (at least as a quality backup catcher, if not more?). Casas continues to trend upward - since May 3rd, he's .265/.370/.444, taking fewer walks but clearly swinging at a lot more hittable pitches than he was in April. He'll be fine.
We are now in the three months of the year between the end of playoff basketball and hockey, and the elephant that is the NFL, where baseball is the show. In years where the Red Sox are not competitive or interesting, it is such a bummer, because it's so easy to focus on the sport. Casas, Bello, Yoshida, and others are a lot of fun to watch, and the games matter. In 2023, that is all I wanted.
Last year on 6/19/22 the Sox were 36-31, 13.5 games back of NY and 3rd in the AL East, ahead of Baltimore. They were 7th in the AL, .537 win %, with a pythag of .573. The last WC spot went to Tampa with 86 wins, with a .531 win%.
This year they are 37-35, 12.5 games back of TB and 4th in the AL East. They are 8th in the AL, .514 win %, with a pythag of .523. Means they need to go 49-41 (.544) to get to 86.
I do think this team is better positioned than last years, other than the gaping hole at SS, but I'm still not seeing the WC as much of a shot. With Oakland being SO bad there's more wins for WC potential teams to be had, I don't think 86 does it this year.
Some dope on the local news said that Bloom's job was in danger if they didn't make the playoffs this year, and they should be buyers at the deadline. Bloom's team is better than expected, and yes if they can land a good SS at the trade deadline they should, but his job is as safe as a healthy Pope's.
I'm sold on Casas and Wong. They are keepers.
*as opposed to fake bonafide starters.
In hindsight, when he made the deadline deals last season, he was playing the long game more than it may have appeared at the time. He basically traded Vazquez and Diekman for McGuire and three prospects. Getting rid of Diekman was addition by subtraction - he had not pitched well, and they were on the hook for another $4.5m in 2023+option buyout - and they got cheaper and younger at catcher with team control of McGuire, plus two decent prospects and a pitching lottery ticket (Taylor Broadway).
I could see Bloom doing similar moves this deadline, particularly if the team were to revert a little below .500 again. Duvall, Turner, Paxton, and Martin are pretty high-quality, short-term money, veteran pickups that would probably draw deadline interest - and none of them are long-term solutions for Boston (unless they wanted to try to extend Paxton for a few years?).
Again, though, pretty happy that are competing while getting some young guys in the mix.
I'll be happy to be wrong about Wong (I don't think he's going to hit), and he's at least doing well behind the plate, but if you take out that one 4-4 2HR game on May 2 he has something like a .673 OPS - .675 prior to the game, and .672 after. I know the game counts just as much as others, and maybe he can do it again, but I am still not sold on his ability over the course of a season. Maybe an 80-85 OPS+ gets it done at C, and it's not a negative, but it doesn't really add much value, other than 'ok at C, let's spend $ somewhere else'.
Here's another Wong split:
Last 28 days: .259/.355/.482
That period doesn't include his magical 3 period that we're all so quick to dismiss. He definitely took a dip after those games but he's recovered very nicely!
It's not pretty, but it's easy to forget how bad catchers are at hitting. An 80-85 OPS+ probably does get it done, especially for a good defensive catcher. But it seems like Wong is better than that. He is hitting .239/.306/.445, which is practically identical to his preseason ZIPS: .258/.304/.435. If he can stay somewhere around that, he's a legit averagish starting catcher at league minimum.
I am not trying to splice and dice his splits, just pointing out just how much of an impact a single game has on our view of his season. That game is adding .080 to his OPS for the season, instead of his current .751, he's ony .673. And again, that is OK at C! At his age and salary that's great if the team can lock in an average position, I just don't think he is going to be much of a difference maker. Am happy to be wrong.
Whereas the team appears to be unsuccessfully trying to cheap out at SS for 2023-2024 until Mayer is ready; and whereas the team unsuccessfully tried to cheap out at 1B in 2021-2022 until Casas was ready; it seems like Bloom has come up with a sustainable, cheap solution for the next few years at catcher. They aren't awesome, but they are fine.
Maybe he's this good as a hitter, maybe he's not. But I don't see how remind that game tells us one way or another.
Because that one single game is reminiscent of Drew's $14M Slam or Jack Morris's G7 that essentially got him into the HOF - it's having a huge effect on how Wong is seen as a hitter. With the game he's a building block, without he is OK. Take it for what you will, I am just explaining why I am still not sold on him - I mean, he's done better than I would have thought, he's provided some chance at stability to the position, so great, but I don't think he is as important to the team as Casas is.
And that aside - come on, removing one game from someone is not slicing and dicing splits. I am not picking 'the last 28 days' to suit my narrative, as adding in the 29th, 30th, and 31st days adds an 0-9 with no BB and 1 HBP to his line, but surely you knew that. Nor are his stats all different before and after the game, suggesting some huge fix that happened - his season before was .671, and after .673. That leads me to believe his true talent at the moment is probably closer to .670 than .750.
It is. That's exactly what it is.
I used 28 days because it's what's listed on BBRef's splits page. It's a 4 week period. And your numbers are wrong. 28 days covered 5/23 to 6/19. Extending that to 31 days would cover the games of 5/20 and 5/22, where he went 2-7 with a double, and bring his line to: .262/.348/.475.
Putting aside our petty bickering for a moment (but just a moment!), Wong has several years of professional baseball that we can draw on to see what kind of player he might *really* be. ZIPS and Steamer use that data to attempt to answer that question:
ZIPS pre-2023: .258/.304/.435
Steamer pre-2023: .244/.293/.413
Now, what do Wong's numbers look like with and without the magic game (thru 6/19):
Without Magic Game: .218/.289/.384
With Magic Game: .239/.306/.445
Given what we know about Wong's track record, which one of those makes more sense? Which is more in line with what we know about Wong?
JD Drew was a very good OF for the Red Sox. He followed up that slam with 2 years of OPS north of .900. Mister, we could use a man like JD Drew again (today).
Didn't need no pitch spin rate,
Everybody hit their weight,
Gee, our guy Coco ran great,
Those were the days!
All I am saying is ZIPS and Steamer are wrong. I have a better idea of how he will turn out. I will grudgingly admit my prediction that he would produce less value than Blake Swihart may be in danger of being slightly incorrect.
He was treated very, very poorly by a lot of Sox fans. So glad that level of bitterness is gone from most of the fan base.
It's like the play last year in which Duran lost sight of the ball and it landed like 80 feet behind him. For two seconds the camera showed the ball on the ground by the wall and Duran just kinda staring at it instead of running it down, and then Verdugo races in to get it. What was obvious to Duran when he saw the ball was that Verdugo would obviously get there first. Verdugo being anywhere near the ball was not obvious to the TV viewer, so for a couple of seconds it appeared like Duran just didn't care. The TV viewer inferred a character flaw that simply wasn't there.
Sure, and maybe Bill Buckner doesn't have a completely rational hated for Boston. I mean, after all, he was forgiven.
Incidentally, man does legit pitching stand out at that level. Abel was throwing hard, consistently 97 on the in-stadium radar. Sea Dogs starter Isaac Coffey, on the other hand, was throwing batting practice- he gave up three doubles and a home run in 2 innings, plus several other hard hit balls.
He has kompromat on Wally.
I agree, and the non-Sabr take is that without him, they likely wouldn't have beaten Cleveland in 2007.
I am always happy to try and get more frontline pitching, but only if they've got control of the guy for 3 years at least, and those type of pitchers aren't typically available by trade.
Yes of course.
Acquiring a frontline starter is always a good thing. Of course as always the devil is in the details. Who could you get that you'd be willing to give up assets for and what assets are you willing to move? There is probably a post to be written on this subject but I'd say Mayer is all but untouchable, beyond him yeah I'll listen. But for me the key is control, that's why I wanted Berrios last year. You gotta kick the tires on the struggling Alcantara right but is he healthy? And are the Marlins willing to move him? These are the top 20 pitchers in ERA+ this yar and I can't see any of them getting moved. Most of them are on competitive teams (having good pitching makes you a better team, who would have thunk it) and of the other five, two of them are rentals and none of the other three is really that exciting.
NO because current teams won't do it; Elder, Valdez, McLanahan, Cole, Eovaldi, J. Gray, Ohtani, Castillo, Gausmann, Gallen, Kelly, Javier, Webb, Ryan, Kershaw
NO because of lack of long term control; Stroman, Smyly
NO because they really aren't that exciting; Wacha, Cobb, S. Gray
So what's left below that group? Alcantara, Corbin Burnes (1 year after this), Jordan Montgomery (FA after this year), Michael Kopech (through 2025 - dumb as a box of hammers, slightly less durable than Jed Lowrie), Shane Bieber (through 2024).
If that Mariners keep scuffling maybe you talk about Castillo but it's tough to find these guys. I think a front three of Bello, Houck, Whitlock can do a job, spend some money to round it out in talent and durability (Montgomery would be a great fit this winter).
With that in mind, why get someone like Lynn that costs prospects and doesn't help '25? I mean, FA, go ####### wild, but don't give up assets for this year or the next.
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