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Also not getting the hot take that the Rays losing in four after winning 100 games constitutes them being obliterated by the Sox. Apparently the score of the games is irrelevant in that sense. To me, a three game sweep or two or three blowouts would’ve fit the “obliterated” label. Certainly not a series where two of the three games won by the series winner came down to the final at bat.
It's better than the people referring to Boston's game 4 win as their second straight "walk-off win". Danny Santana did no walking, and I don't care if the runner on third was Billy Hamilton there is no such thing as a walk-off sacrifice fly to LF in Fenway. An on-target throw would have been a close play.
I imagine this is where someone will pretend that the term refers to the opponent having to walk off the field, but it never did mean that. It referred to the offense having the luxury of walking the bases if they wanted. A go-ahead HR; a bases-loaded walk or HBP; a hit or even a balk with a runner on 3rd. If the winning run had the option of casually strolling home and then the game ends, that's a walk-off.
I am excited for the ALCS and all my not-looking-ahead has manifested in a lot of excitement for the next round as I sip my coffee this morning.
This season has morphed from "hey, this is an exciting start" to an unforgettable ride with a memorable team.
Apparently Dennis Eckersley half disagrees. He did say it referred to giving up a homer, but given the context I don't see why it wouldn't refer to any time the defensive team loses. If it were referring to the offense, it would have to be jog-off (though perhaps that would be interpreted differently).
Also I guess it shouldn't have surprised me that it was apparently coined by Eck.
I think the same guy caught the Devers and Franco HRs.
What was Cora arguing about with the umpires near the end of the game?
Anyway, I'm glad Kike got the run home. But I think I'd have liked it even more if he'd bunted up the first base line. Smoltz was suggesting it on the broadcast. The way the Rays had their defenders set it would have been absolutely impossible for them to defend unless the pitcher made an amazing play.
Congrats to the Sox for a surprising win.
The pitching decisions on the Red Sox side really confused me:
--Going to Houck two days after he threw 5 innings is something you do when you're desperate, not when you're comfortably ahead and have another game to spare. It was immediately clear that he was not himself.
--Braisier over Whitlock made little sense once Cora made clear he would be willing to use Whitlock for 2 IP. It seems recently that Cora has lost trust in Whitlock generally and went to him out of desperation here. I wonder what his health situation is.
--More generally, what happened to Ottavino? Haven't seen much of him lately.
On the defensive substitution, I can't imagine ever putting Dalbec in to play 1B for his defense. I would think the move there is to go straight to Shaw, if you're going to replace Schwarber at all.
Great game by E-Rod, the 17 pitch at bat was amazing.
Three days not two. I don't think he pitched badly. Cora pretty clearly wanted just one inning out of him and he got it. Unfortunately Franco hit the home run which is going to happen.
I'm not sure why you think he's lost trust in Whitlock? He's using him as his closer. Being willing to use him for 2 and wanting to use him for 2 is two different things. As good as Brasier has been I think Brasier in the 8th, Whitlock in the 9th was a Timlin in the 8th, Williamson in the 9th no brainer. Brasier didn't have it.
He hasn't been very good. He gave up runs in 4 of his last 5 outings in the regular season and simply has been passed by Whitlock, Brasier, Houck, Pivetta and Robles based on merit.
I didn't mind going to the defense there. It was the play to win move. Dalbec's not good but he's better than Schwarber. With the two run lead Cora wasn't playing scared, he was playing to finish the series right then and there. Personally I wouldn't have done it but I have no issue with it. Shaw would have been an interesting call. Not sure what his defense is like at first base these days. He's not as svelte as he once was.
The Rays left fielder should have gotten behind the throw like Kike had demonstrated twice in this game. It almost looked half-hearted, he didn't behave as if the season depended on it.
I mean, we remember the Red Sox were riddled with COVID cases a couple months ago. Imagine if all that had happened in the past week or so. They'd have been toast, probably swept in this series. No Hernandez; no Arroyo; no Bogaerts; and pretty much no pitching. It wouldn't have taken much for Boston to lose at least games 3 and 4, and maybe even game 2 given how much Hernandez played a part. Tampa Bay was missing a LOT of good players from their roster and they were reasonably close to winning the series despite that. They are a deep team.
He pitched in game 2, on 10/8. Then he has 2 days rest, then he in game 4, on 10/11.
I thought they said Houck was getting ready to go back out for a second at one point? Whatever the case, yes, Franco is a good hitter but he's not Bonds. Houck's command/control was lousy that inning--he was not at his best or close to it.
I don't mind going to defense, but it's certainly debatable. But they didn't go to defense, they went from a really bad defender to a bad defender. Seems like a poor tradeoff. Then again, imagine a grounder going through Schwarber's legs there? :)
I feel the need to weigh in on walk-off. I always thought it was any win where the offense scores on the last play. I thought of the winning team walking off the field happily after it happened.
You're right. I realized this when this discussion came up. My definition doesn't really make sense.
Fair enough, we're saying the same thing though. If he had been a traditional starter in game 2 yesterday would have been his throw day. I don't think it was unreasonable to ask him to give an inning or even two.
That he wasn't great is not particularly relevant. Part of the problem for Cora of course is his options are not exactly magnificent. It's not like the Sox are the 1990 Nasty Boys.
+1
When the Sox got up 5-0 my mom texted me to say "this is great but I'd feel more comfortable if they had a few more runs". She nailed it.
That Whitlock appearance in the 8th was clutch city. It really doesn't get any tougher than that, against the heart of the lineup. WPA has its warts but last night Whitlock is entirely deserving of the .4 WPA. Game hung in the balance and he got the job done in amazing fashion.
I don't think so. 2 and 3 are not the same. Asking him to go for an inning or two on his throw day is not, in the abstract, unreasonable. But it really is up to the coaching staff to figure out is that's a good idea. From both what we observed and the results, that was a bad decision.
We all think the world of your mom, but yeah, of course a few more runs would be better.
Ignoring stupid people is a nice way to make your life more pleasant.
It probably wouldn't have been the optimal strategy, but for a second I wondered if they would try it. Choi was in, but he was far off the line.
It seemed to me like they were daring him to do so, and Smoltz seemed to agree (see above). I was hoping for that because it would have been really cool but I think trying to put the ball in the air for a sac fly was a good strategy too.
It's true but I've never learned this lesson. :)
Oh get over it, and take your sabernonsense with you. Noted jock Chaim Bloom's team won with good old fashioned grit.
Just going back to the Rays series for a moment. Here's what the Rays hitters did against Boston pitching. Sorted by regular-season OPS:
PLAYER AB H HR BB K OPS OPSinRegSeasonLowe 18 0 0 0 9 0 863 <------
Zunino 15 2 0 0 6 333 860 <------
Cruz 17 3 1 1 5 575 832 <------
Arozarena 15 5 1 4 4 1074 815
Franco 19 7 2 0 3 1158 810
Meadows 9 2 1 0 2 889 772
Diaz 15 3 0 1 2 450 740
Kiermaier 14 3 0 2 4 741 716
others 25 6 2 2 11 856 IDK
Arozarena did Arozarena things, and Franco was Wanderful (is that overused yet?), but look at those top 3 hitters by regular season OPS. They combined for 5 hits in 50 AB, with 20 strikeouts and 1 walk. We'll always have the question of whether this is more something the pitchers did or something the hitters failed to do, but that was an impressive shutdown either way. We shouldn't rely on WPA for anything other than general patterns, but the combined WPA for the series for those 3 hitters was -1.11. Their lack of hitting cost the Rays roughly one win. If the pre-series expectation had been something like 3-2 Rays (and in a 100-win team vs 92-win team matchup that's probably reasonable), those 3 hitters alone would have been enough to tilt the series to Boston.
This is less a question about what if anything Boston did to stop those hitters - although I'd be fascinated to hear it - but more about what it takes to shift the expectations by a win. In a short series, shutting down the top 3 hitters (or 3 of the top N hitters) is enough to swing it. Easier said than done, I'm sure, but my point is this: Maybe for the players it's simpler to reduce the problem to just that. Instead of giving them a matrix of possibilities for every hitter, it's just Lowe is susceptible to the K if you pitch him this way, we can shut him down if you do just this one thing but only for a handful of players. Do these things and you take away their strengths. Everything else is just random variation, and that's fine, they will get hits, or they will get outs, and we'll do our best with whatever happens. But we just need to weaken them enough to buy us 1 win, and if we focus on just these 3 hitters we can do it. Put another way, if the pitchers are told 9 good ways to get hitters out, maybe it's better that it's 3 good ways to get each of the top 3 hitters out than 1 good way for each of the 9 hitters.
With all that said, it's 4 games. I think trying to read too much into it other than "over 4 games some guys did well, some guys didn't" is probably a fool's errand. But having said that in a short series (which any playoff series is ultimately) guys who fan a lot are guys I'm going to feel confident I can get out. Obviously you want your better hitters (e.g. Gallo is better than Gardner) but at least when I'm facing High K guys I feel like there is a chance.
Yankees- 5
Indians- 5
Angels- 5
A's- 4
Cardinals- 4
Astros- 3
Rays- 3
- All seven games were played in a very short time span, May 31st-June 10th. It was almost like a home-and-home set op.
It was a very time for the Red Sox, anyway. For example:
- In the first game, the three relievers used by Boston (Valdez, Andriese, and Brewer) are no longer on the roster.
- In their second game, two of the three pitchers used by Boston are not on the roster (Richards and Sawamura)
- In the third game, two of the four pitchers used are not on the roster (Hernandez and Sawamura)
- In the fourth game, (the only one they won in the four-game series at home), Martin Perez pitched his butt off, having his best start of the season (7.1 IP, 1 ER), and was then relieved by Ottavino and Workman. Perez isn't starting any games; Workman isn't on the team; and Ottavino appears to be buried pretty deep in the bullpen now. (At that time, Ottavino was probably one of the most important players on ther whole team, really being the team's primary 8th-inning setup man for Barnes. Actually, think about that sentence! Neither Ottavino nor Barnes are getting anywhere near a one-run game in the 8th or 9th inning at this point!)
Of course, this was while the Red Sox were generally playing their best ball (they went 54-32, followed by 38-40). When I think back through the first half of the season, though, the games against Houston stand out as some of the least satisfying games of that whole stretch. In fact, I recall local media pointing to these seven Houston games in an 11-day stretch as evidence that the Red Sox were a cute story,,,but would not be able to stand up with the Big Boys when it really mattered. Well, they've "stood up" to the Yankees and Rays so far when it mattered, and if they beat Houston, the Red Sox will certainly have earned their place in the World Series.
I too have always thought it referred to any time the offense scores on the last play, and that "walk off" is just a generic term for the game ending right then and there and everyone leaves. This isn't the kind of thing you analyze with precision. And if it referred to the losing team walking off the field, it wouldn't be called a "walk-off win," it would be called a "walk-off loss."
You've been posting at BBTF long enough to know that ANYTHING will be analyzed with ridiculous levels of precision given enough discussion.
This isn't the kind of thing you analyze with precision. And if it referred to the losing team walking off the field, it wouldn't be called a "walk-off win," it would be called a "walk-off loss."
First sentence: don't analyze with precision. Second sentence: analysis with precision. :)
If I take a similar approach with Boston's hitters, here's what I have. I'll just do the OPS:
PLAYER AB OPS OPSinRegSeasonSchwarber 16 889 928
Devers 18 1067 890
Martinez 15 1200 867
Bogaerts 18 868 863
Renfroe 17 721 816
Dalbec 6 000 792 <------
Hernandez 20 1329 786
Verdugo 19 842 777
Arroyo 16 688 769
Vazquez 16 938 659
others 3 667 IDK
Like, if what happened to the Rays' top hitters is completely explainable by random variation in a short sample, then we should see similar variation on the Boston ledger as they had a similarly short sample (and played in the same weather/stadium conditions). We really don't. We see a couple regulars (Renfroe and Arroyo) with an OPS drop of around 100 points, which is like 1 hit away from their normal level - and is nothing compared to what happened to the top 3 for Tampa Bay. The only one with a massive drop is Dalbec, albeit on 6 ABs. Again, I can't say how much of this is "Boston hitters did it" or "Tampa pitchers failed to do it", but it's a different profile from what we saw from the Tampa hitters.
To your point it's unclear if the Tampa lineup results were luck or the residue of design. I guess I'm entertaining the notion of the latter and trying to understand if there was a targeted effort to minimize the 3 who had difficulty rather than a lineup-wide thing. I'm not sure how such an approach would work against the Astros.
The NL is halfway to that not being true.
Also I feel like you all missed my link to the origin of "walk-off". It was used originally to mean a HR, but the "walking" referred to the losing pitcher. This makes some sense, as no one is walking - even an Ortiz game-winning HR trot was slightly above walking pace. Also, it being appealing and catchy but not 100% sensical is completely consistent with being coined by Eckersley!
The only way to prove the rays being shutdown in this series is with a larger sample. I get that there is desire to see pattern in short series that “count”. But doing so pretty much throws out everything we’ve learned about the game.
The Sox won. Feel good about it. Enjoy it. No need to imbue the victory with some larger mystical bull.
And were this to come to pass, they'd be a visitor for Game 1 of the World Series because the Red Sox's winning percentage is higher than Atlanta's. Any other WS matchup would have the Red Sox on the road for Game 1 of the World Series for the first time since... 1946?
Agree. It's a tiny sample of 4 games. The last 2 games could've gone either way and the Sox just made it happen when they needed to. I don't need Primer's insanely granular level of analysis to tell me that they got lucky in a few spots and managed to just get over the top.
That cake is getting frosted with more icing each day and I'm just enjoying that.
Nobody deserves HFA in the World Series. You could base it on interleague play results (or the ASG!) but AL teams have a structural advantage over NL teams, so that's not really fair. They should make it so you can't win the Series unless you can win 2 more games than your opponent. With that rule the only way there will be an imbalance of home/road games played is if a team wins 4 games to 1. It also means the potential for looooong Series, but that's just more baseball, which is good.
I have today off. I work tomorrow. But man, why can't it be Friday today?
If you have MLB.tv, the radio feed is streamable for the playoffs on your phone, as far as I know/have experienced BUT... it might just be my stupidity or my stupid car, but when I went to connect the phone via USB cord to my car speakers (to run it through CarPlay) it wouldn't work... I suspect that might be because it disables all ability to "throw" the signal (TV or radio) to something else, but, still, it was damn annoying to list to the game on my iPhone's tinny speaker when I could have it playing though the car's...
On December 18th Houston wins the 46th WS game 6-1 for their 24th victory, clinching the title.
If you want to speed up the schedule a bit more, once they get past 11 games played every 2 games thereafter will be held as a doubleheader. Either a team clinches in the early game, or a team takes a 1-game lead going into a travel day.
If you have an MLB.tv subscription, then it's already not free. But if you do, you should be able to stream any game that you could also watch at home through your cable/satellite subscription. I watched most of Rays/Sox Game 4 live on my phone on Amtrak earlier this week. If it's on a network your provider doesn't carry, then the MLB.tv option won't work for watching the game, but at the LCS level I think the games are on channels carried by most providers. Regardless, MLB.tv subscribers can *always* get a streaming radio feed. Sometimes you can get four - any combination of home/visitor and English/Spanish.
D*mn, has it been 3 whole years since the last championship? Well waiting any longer for another one is just not acceptable these days for these new-fangled, entitled Red Sox fans...we want more!
Jokes aside, this season has been quite a fun ride and as mentioned before, I'm just enjoying that thick layer of icing now on the 2021 season cake.
Are we thinking any roster changes? The only one I can think of is someone coming in for Perez but I don’t think they will. If they carried him for a five gamer they’ll want someone who could potentially eat innings in a seven gamer.
That may have been a setting on your phone - when you plug it in to USB typically there are options for what the phone will do - charge only, media transfer, etc. Your phone could have been in charge only mode. Or there's a chance it was the USB cable - as asinine as it sounds, some USB cables charge only, they do not allow for data transfer. Ultimately, USB to phone connects are old school, shitty things, that do not work reliably.
But yeah, that McCullers/Carpenter comp is a really good one I hadn’t considered. Good call.
I can neither confirm nor deny the existance of ways to stream mlb games for free outside of mlbTV.
In that other Tampa start the following week, he gave up 10 hits in 3+ innings, 4 runs (only one earned, though he was getting crushed).
There were two games where the team really needed him to come through when the playoffs were very much in doubt: at BAL, and then at WAS - and he struggled in both games.
It would not surprise me to see Sale used tonight once through the lineup, and at the first sign of decline, get pulled in the 3rd or 4th inning. Then, they'd use Pivetta or Houck if the game is competitive to try to get to the 7th innings, and then use bullpen guys to cobble together a win.
The dream scenario is for Sale to give them 5-6 good innings, and they could get out of Game 1 with a win without having to use Pivetta at all, and/or using Houck for more than an inning. The worst case reasonable scenario is where Sale just has nothing, and Cora is deciding whether to tryo to get another 5-inning outing from Pivetta or Houck, which would render them basically unavailable for a few games. That's what I call the "WTF is Martin Perez doing warming up in Game 3?!" Scenario.
They got a little unlucky with the DP's in the first two innings and did a poor job of converting opportunities and mistakes by the Astros, maybe one could make the same observation about Houston. The passed ball in the 1st came at about the worst time, cost them a run and took the DP off the table. I agree with criticism of the Santana substitution, I'd rather roll the dice with Renfroe....a little less so with Shaw, but I suppose Cora has to show confidence in everyone on the bench except Dalbec.
Would have been nice to blow it out completely and give Raffy a few innings off but minor complaint there. I really liked Cora going to Whitlock for the 7th. Don’t wait for the Astros to make it squirrely, try to smother the game right then and there. Lot better to go in that order than have Darwinzon give up a couple of runs in the 7th then have to use Brasier and Whitlock in a tighter game.
That cake keeps getting layers of icing...and I really like icing. Like, for real, I once ate an entire can of that Betty Crocker icing in a tin.
Questions I have going forward:
- Do folks here think Dalbec has a role to play in this series? Renfroe seems like the guy in the lineup who is struggling right now, but the Astros have very few lefties who are going to get innings, certainly as starters. Also, an outfield of Schwarber-Kike-Martinez is pretty awful...OK, I'm talking myself out of it. I don't think Dalbec is really any faster than Schwaber, BTW, and I get frustrated when they take out Schwarber in the 7th inning or later if he gets on base for Dalbec as a pinch runner. Is it related to preventing a hamstring injury again, or do they think Dalbec's superior speed and defense is worth the risk of losing Schwarber's bat for a potential additional PA?
- What is the best way to use Sale from here on in? Do they make him a Game 4 or 5 starter, since he has thrown so few pitches lately? He has thrown a total of 153 pitches (over three starts) since September 28th. Or do they just say, "You're our opener. You are going to pitch to no more than nine guys, and then we take you out." The problem there is that the Astros don't have a platoon-heavy lineup - the guys they have are playing, no matter what arm the opposing pitcher uses (unlike Tampa).
- I can't believe I am saying this, but would you now say that Perez is currently no worse than the 3rd-scariest pitcher on the Red Sox, from a fan perspective? Sawamura and Darwinzon Hernandez are indescribably awful right now to watch. Robles is pretty ulcer-inducing, too. Wow - Perez may actually be only the 4th-worse option right now.
Right now it is:
Feeling good: Eovaldi, Whitlock, Brasier, Pivetta
Feeling OK: Taylor, ERod
What should I feel?: Houck, Ottavino (has he gotten enough rest that he's pretty reliable now?)
Feeling not confident: Robles, Perez, Sale, Austin Davis
This is terrible, I cannot watch: Hernandez, Sawamura
I'm not a fan of the Schwarber switch, but with a big lead, it's probably worth it as Dalbec is better with the leather. In a close game, where I might need Kyle's bat again, no way I make the switch. Jose and et al disagree and can offer more insight into their position on this one.
As for the pitching overall, I look at it at like this. Houston is batting Correa, Tucker and Gurriel 5th, 6th and 7th. That is a scary, good lineup and any staff, ever, would struggle against the depth of that. 5 runs is really the key. The Sox just need to score 5 or more runs in each game and they'll win the series as I think Houston is guaranteed to get at least 4 a game.
Houston's pitching is probably the worse of the 4 teams left right now and the way the Sox are hitting, I would not be surprised if they get 7 or more runs in another game or 2.
I would let Sale start another game(maybe he figures some more stuff out) and treat him like an opener, but gee if he's looking solid, let him roll into the 5th if you can.
I am NOT a Perez fan and every time he is on the bump, I see that as white towel in the ring type of thing. Sawamura and Hernandez should not be given the ball unless the Sox are either up or down by 6 or more and it's in the last 2 innings. They are as effective as a position player pitching right now.
re: Sale - I think you just keep rolling him out there and accept that he’s not going much more than once through and hope he is adequate. It’s not like he’s pitching so well in his short stints that I think we can expect him to suddenly become a great reliever. It’s a bullpen game with him starting and if he has it going on and goes deeper, great.
re: the pitching I still put Perez last in terms of guys I want to see in a key spot. I’m not sold on Darwinzon or Sawamura right now either but at least they have electric stuff that might work. They are kind of like the pitching equivalent of first half Dalbec. Yeah they aren’t doing well but maybe they hit one 500 feet. Perez is just first half Marwin Gonzalez, he’s not very good. I genuinely don’t understand Sawamura and Hernandez. They have amazing stuff, but they just get creamed.* For me;
Feeling Good: Eovaldi, Whitlock, Brasier, Pivetta, Houck
Feeling OK: EdRod, Ottavino, Robles, Taylor
What Should I feel: Sale
Feeling Not Confident: Hernandez
This is terrible: Perez, Sawamura
re: Astros pitching - I think we should be careful about being too critical. I’m a big Framber Valdez fan and expect him to be good in game five. I get a real Bruce Hurst vibe from him.
* Hernandez and Sawamura remind me of a 10 year old kid I coach only they give up a lot of hard contact. This kid Mason pitched for me Friday night and he had about a two hour inning on the mound. He’s a big kid and throws really hard but is never quite sure where it’s going (not unlike Darwinzon). He throws so hard he couldn’t get a weak grounder because the kids couldn’t make any contact. It just came down to “can Mason throw three strikes in six pitches. In the end he gave up two runs on four walks, two strikeouts and and wild pitch that the catcher tagged the runner trying to score. I could live if Darwinzon or Sawamura would do that but they get hit a lot harder than you’d think they would.
I am somewhat worried the more the Astros see Whitlock/Houck, the more they might be able to tee off on them.
I would guess at this point Pivetta starts Game 4, though given his success out of the bullpen, I could also see them using an opener and going to Pivetta, thinking if he pitches innings 3-7 that might be better than 1-5, but I'm sure they're asking him what would make him more comfortable and just going with that.
If Sale then goes in Game 5, that leaves Eovaldi for 6 and EdRod for 7, though naturally depending on the # of pitches Pivetta could factor into 6 or 7.
But really, from here on out I would assume they with the WS by just outslugging teams, not with stellar pitching.
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