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Like I said, gotta win 8-6 games.
Boston would have HFA in the WS and is a better team.
But that outcome still isn't anything like 50%.
So if the Braves meet the Red Sox, Atlanta would only have HFA against the team that won 106 games, but lose it to one division winner and one wildcard, each of whom had 10-plus fewer wins than the Dodgers.
I also quibble with the Sox being better than the Braves. I think in general people are sleeping on the Braves, they are a really good team. I think they are better than their record this year. The lineup is deep and the rotation is really good.
Basically, what we learn, is that the regular season means #### all if you get to the playoffs.
Maybe, but they won far fewer games than anyone else in the playoffs and were in one of the weaker divisions. They're playing well right now, as are the Sox. I don't think either of them are in hailing distance of being the best team this year but Braves/Sox would probably be the most entertaining WS we could still get. Houston and LA seem to be losing wheels on the regular.
And, you know, 90-ish win teams are good. I'm not saying they're not. If the Braves win two more games, they have a very good chance of being World Champions. They had a decent chance at the start of the playoffs just by being in the playoffs. I don't think we can learn more than that. Sure, if they win 105 games next year, maybe they were better than an 88 win team at the end of 2021.
In the end, though, I'm more impressed with winning 92 games in the AL East than 88 in the NL East. I think both Boston and Atlanta, if lined up against their LCS opponents with both teams at full strength and healthy, would be underdogs. That's not how things worked out.
True, but it's also undeniable that teams can change considerably from April to September, for a variety of reasons (injuries, trades, call-ups, etc.). That the Braves had the least impressive season of the teams in the playoffs and may be much better right now than an 88-win team can both be true.
Of the Braves' 66 at-bats in the NLCS so far, players they acquired in July (Pederson, Rosario, Duvall) have accounted for 33% of their at-bats, 42% of their RBIs, and 50% of their hits. That's a two-game sample and not meaningful nor projectable and blah blah blah. But it's illustrative of the fact that the Braves team playing right now is a materially different team than the one that was around before they "played well at the right time". They have a much deeper lineup than what they fielded for close to four months.
Whoa son, everybody slow the f*ck down. I'm probably one of the more positive thinking Red Sox fans out there, but this is getting waaay ahead of ourselves. You can pretty much guarantee that Astro's lineup with put up 4-5 runs per game. The Sox still have to score enough to beat these guys. It's a big ask. Sure their pitching appears brittle, but you can have a game or 2 where the team will cream the ball and make like 10 loud outs. It happens. The Astro's defense catches a lot of balls. If the Astros hit the ball hard...well our defence...not so good.
Some players on the Dodgers are scuffling a little bit at the dish, I do not expect that to last. Also, for a team that appeared to have a set playoff rotation, outside of Walker, the usage so far is odd. Bringing in Urias yesterday seemed strange to me and only using Max for 4 and a bit, seemed a waste. Guy hangs one breaking ball, pays the price and you eventually remove him after 70 odd pitches? Dude is a horse and really should've been allowed to keep going until he got into serious trouble. Then you feel you need to bring in Urias to cover more innings? It was odd managing.
I expect to see the Dodgers in the WS.
I think the Sox fans are definitely ahead of themselves at 1-1. Yes, it looks good, but long way to go.
I won't be shocked if LA comes back but it's a tall order. They're banged up and have weirdly blown their biggest advantage. I think predicting a 2-0 comeback is underestimating Atlanta. And I'm the Braves fan who has been consistently predicting their doom.
Just for fun, can you name the five players?
I love the 3-0 go by Schwarb.
Fun to consider the alternate universe where the Yankees get Schwarber and the Red Sox get Rizzo. Something tells me the Red Sox got who they wanted and the Yankees got who they wanted. It's interesting how it's worked out.
Years like this I always think about the various statements Bill James has made over the years to the effect that while considering the "numbers" etc. certainly goes into player acquisition, a fair bit regarding clubhouse dynamics is also considered. Sure, when teams are winning it's hard to know whether it's just the players being good or some mystical clubhouse energy that's giving that extra little edge... but I've always felt it was interesting that James does seem to make mention of this quite a bit.
I missed the stat the TV was saying--something like Schwarber was 0-15 when swinging 3-0... but I didn't catch whether that was for the season or for his career... If the latter, that's just amazing. If the former, I'm somewhat surprised he swung at 3-0 pitches 15 times in 2021; that seems like a high number to me.
In any case, it seemed like an interesting stat either way. I would have guessed most MLB'ers would swing 3-0 only a handful of times per season (on average).
I mentioned in the Chatter that I really hope they find a way to keep Iglesias around next year, because he really did seem to fit into the group extremely well, which is not exactly what I expected (I seem to recall stories of attitude problems in previous stops). Maybe a lot of that is Cora - they gush over him in the broadcasts, but he really does seem to know how to keep everyone pointed in the right direction.
True. IIRC, Walt pulled stats on this before and hitters usually do exceedingly well when swinging on 3-0. I'm not good at pulling data, but someone else here might find it easily or we could use either Walt or one of those bobm charts to help us out.
This team man, this team....
PAs that ended on the 3-0 count, Schwarber was 0 for 0 with 14 walks. Never put the ball in play on 3-0. Think that must have been what they were going for. He has 30 PA total that went to 3-0. Not sure what percentage of the remaining 16 he swung at, but doubt it was 15 of them.
The bullpen couldn't be a lot more rested:
Last night, the three bullpen innings were by two guys that aren't going to see a meaningful inning the rest of this year (Perez and Sawamura) and a guy who is probably not much better (Robles).
The day before was an off day.
The day before that, four relievers were used: Hernandez isn't getting near a meaningful inning; Ottavino threw 18 pitches; Brasier threw 4 pitches; Whitlock threw 33 pitches.
So Houck hasn't pitched since Friday; Whitlock could throw at least an inning tonight; Brasier has thrown 11 pitches since October 11th, total. Taylor hasn't pitched in a while; Ottavino (who seems sort of rejuvenated?) can throw an inning tonight.
If Pivetta can give them even 4+ good innings tonight, you have to feel good about their chances to make a lead stick, because they can use their three best relievers (Whitlock, Houck, Brasier) for four innings tonight, if needed. Then they can use Taylor and Ottavino to cobble together another inning or so. After that, the bullpen gets sketchy pretty quick...but because of the last two games, that lack of depth in the bullpen has not been challenged.
Yeah, the stros are cooked.
Lotta variables over the next 4 games. I feel good about Eovaldi and EdRod so we should have multiple cracks at getting 2 more wins but man I’d really prefer not to have to go back to Houston.
I feel really good about where the Sox are obviously. They are playing great right now. At the same time the same people declaring that the Sox have this in the bag are by and large the same people who were declaring they had no chance 5 days ago. This series is 2-1, it can turn around fast.
But, you've seen your team win 4 world series in the last 17 years. They've won a lot of other postseason series and they've consistently competed for the division. They've outscored Houston 21-8 the last two games. If you can only must "they could win it" at this point, I wonder if you can ever really be happy (with the team).
Greinke hasn't been right since he had covid. I think there is a better chance of another Sox grand slam tonight than Greinke having a strong outing.
1. I generally agree with vi's sentiment (though I'd disagree with "probably lose this series")
2. I am enjoying this probably more than any other playoff run probably because of that mindset.
Would you rather us blathering on about how the Cheating Astros are toast and the only question is if the Sox are going to sweep the World Series or win it in five? Arrogance is not a good luck IMHO. I'm enjoying the hell out of this, I feel confident that the team is playing great. I'm also realistic enough to know that things change, fast, in a post-season series. Has any team ever looked more dominant than the 2004 Yankees that had a 3-0 lead after a 19-8 win? How about the 2007 Indians who were up 3-1? Or the 2011 Red Sox who were in first place on a 100+ win pace on August 31?
If you think Sox fans aren't happy right now I can assure you that you are wrong. There is a positivity around this team that I don't remember for a very long time, if ever.
I am incredibly happy about this team, and if they don't win another game this year I will still be incredibly happy about this team. I'm just saying if Greinke can conjure up a win this series can take a really quick turn, and although Boston clearly has a big advantage with a 2-1 lead it takes just one Houston win for the Astros to retake home field advantage. Houston is an exceptionally good team, and Boston *can* beat them, and certainly has the opportunity. But "can" and "will" are very different things, even now.
This you?:
14 hours ago we were getting ahead of ourselves by looking forward to the World Series matchup, now we're not happy enough if we say 'they could win it.'
Hard to keep up! :)
I feel great about the way the Sox are hitting, about the loose way in which they're playing and agree that this attitude has transferred to the fans, who (at least the batch I know) are enjoying every inning as it comes and appreciating how unlikely it is that the Sox are in this position. The bullpen is ready to jump into action and throw a lot of innings if need be over the next two games. And my fiancee is buried with work - which sucks, but means I can once again sink into to Castiglione calling tonight's game while I chop pears and process other fruits of our outdoor labors (pun most definitely intended).
My nephew is a Phillies fan, and based on some of his past comments on the Nick Pivetta experience, I'm sure he feels like he's in bizzaro-land right now with the way Boston feels about Nick Pivetta, Slayer of Batters.
I can assure you that post-Game 3 2004 ALCS was the lowest point of my entire Red Sox fandom stretching back to the early 1980s. Lower than after Game 6 of the 1986 WS. My dominant thought was that perhaps, like Billy Beane, our #### was never going to work in the playoffs. Life can change on a dime.
Yesterday was the litmus for Astro's starters and they failed, right now we have a non-trivial pitching advantage relative to both starters and relievers, and one more win.
Anything can happen, but we are in a very good position to be in the WS in a few days.
This is how I feel, especially since Greinke isn't some Steve Carleton type hanging around way too long--he was actually quite good as recently as the first half of this season!
We didn't take any chances for Game 4. We drove and parked on a street in Brookline. Surely that game wouldn't run long.
God, as they say, laughs at our "plans."
Looking at the box score again for Game 3... I am struggling to recall why Alan Embree would have been used in that game. It was 13-6 at the start of the 7th inning and somehow one of the 3 best relievers makes it into the game? I honestly blacked out much of that game, but that was puzzling to me looking at it again, as it seems insane you'd even warm up Embree at that point, let alone use him.
And looking back again, I did not recall Mike Meyers soaked up the last 2 innings of Game 3, plus appeared in G4 & G5... I recalled the latter 2 games, had completely forgotten about G3. Much is made of Wakefield soaking up innings in G3, but Meyers also helped as well.
It wouldn't at all surprise me for Greinke to eephus-pitch his way through 5 innings allowing only 2 runs and for Pivetta to go pumpkin. 'Tis the season for NARRATIVE.
Anything can happen, but we are in a very good position to be in the WS in a few days.
Yes, that seems the appropriate feeling. To me "they could win it" is what you say at 1-1 or 0-0 or 2-2. At 2-1 with your opponent's pitching in tatters, you're a lot better off than "they could win it". I get that it's all gravy and it feels like they've overachieved, but I'd have to think not reaching the WS at this point would be a disappointment.
I'm a Braves fan and share a lot of the sentiment you guys have. I've discounted the Braves all year. However, up 2-0 in the LCS, I think they should go to the WS (where they will be heavy dogs to the juggernaut from the Northeast).
Situations change. Yes, the Astros could come back. But there is no way the Sox aren't favorites now.
I wonder which feels better? Blowing your opponent out in stunning, historic fashion or winning two walkoffs in a row?
Totally understood and I feel the same way, just having a fun conversation about our teams.
Wrong game, sorry.
The Sox had already burned Mendoza, Leskanic and Wakefield at that point and presumably didn't want to use Arroyo in case he was needed to start (I don't think anyone at that point knew what Schilling could or could not do). So the options there were; Foulke, Myers, Embree and Timlin. So Wake came out with the score 13-6 and two outs in the 7th. Obviously not a likely comeback but you takes your chances. Ideally Embree comes in, gets the last out and if you don't come back it's Myers to absorb the last two. Instead Embree got slapped around but only threw 14 pitches. Myers hadn't pitched 2.1 innings since 1999 so the Sox were probably thinking they were going to need a couple of outs from one of the three main relievers there.
Hadn't looked back at that game in awhile. What a wild one that was.
Probably the walk offs. It's such a cathartic release. You'd rather win in the blowout but when it's over the walkoff/tight game is better. It's like 2004, I would have much preferred the Sox sweeping the first four with no game closer than six runs but having gone through it, that was the best possible way to beat the Yankees.
I can see why you'd think that . . . for some reason, it just isn't like that for me. I keep wondering if/when expectations will creep into my thinking, and so far it just hasn't happened. I'm still 100% enjoying each game as it comes. I'm not trying to sound like some neo-Buddhist or anything; I'm surprised by my own level of satisfaction with what has happened and lack of concern for what's to come, come what may.
In a sense, sure. But you sort of alluded to why most of us aren't particularly disappointed in your earlier post. 4 championships in 17 years, and the success this year has been a surprise. If they lose at this stage, yeah, I wish they had made it further. But we're already spoiled. It's hard to get too upset with our lot as fans.
I think the one other thing is that this team feels like the beginning rather than a culmination. Bloom is looking like he's a keeper and Cora obviously is too. The farm system is thriving and the Sox look like they are hitting a window of serious competitiveness. One of the things that made 2003 so heartbreaking and 2004 look that way until it wasn't is that that team as constructed was about to get blown up due to contracts and age. This team has a 2007 feel (hopefully with the same ending) of a team starting its run (and the Sox followed up with 95-95-89-90 wins the next four years).
Side Note (for a Sox Therapy thread): I can't be the only one who thinks the Dodgers are in a whole heap of trouble, right? I know, I know, last year they came back blah blah blah... But their pitching is in almost as bad a state as the Astros' is, and they're running out of margin to sort it out.
They're way better off than the Astros. They can get two more starts out of Buehler and one from Scherzer. The Astros are hoping Greinke can be a pale imitation of his old self and then...bullpen for the rest of the series.
But by pulling Max after four innings and running through the rest of the staff, including Urias, they definitely built up the obstacles they face.
ETA: But, yes, being down 2-0 is a heap of trouble, no matter who is starting for you.
One of the things that baseball does better than any other sport is to create tension, the pace of the game - normally a pain - works in it's favor in tight late games. Winning a close game in walk-off fashion is easily more entertaining and as Jose said cathartic when you win, but sitting 8-0 or whatever in the 2nd or 3rd inning is much easier sledding, mentally.
Of course, there's also something kind of satisfying about blowout/change of fortune/walk-off. Not that we need to force baseball to fit into a narrative.
I concur with Bunyon that the Dodgers are better off than the Astros but a 2-0 hole is tough no matter what. One of the things that has always stuck with me from 1986 is Bob Lobel talking about how the Mets had to win 4 out of 5 games to win the World Series. That's hard to do against a good team. The problem becomes one of math. To use the Sox Therapy approved logic from the regular season, even if the Dodgers win tonight the Braves just have to play .500 the rest of the series to win the pennant. A win tonight the Dodgers have to play .750 baseball. Doable, but hard. They've used up any wiggle room.
I still think the Astros should have just made a farce of it when down 9-0 (both times) and had a bench player lob batting practice. They've really taxed their pen all to lose two games they were never in. Of course, there isn't much point in saving your relievers when your starters can't seem to avoid giving up a grand slam per inning.
How much have they truly taxed their bullpen? I don't follow the Astros that closely but Pressley, Javier and Graveman haven't pitched the last two games and there was an off day in there too. Stanek threw 12 on Saturday and 14 last night so I guess he kind of comps Embree from the discussion earlier. The big problem as you note is that if their starters keep getting knocked out in the second inning you really stop being able to compete in any meaningful way.
They were behind like that so early, and they're so good, that there was no reason to give the game away at the time, and at what point do you go, well, it's getting late and we're still behind, so now it's time to throw in the towel. In the playoffs, wins and losses are so valuable, that I don't know that there's really a moment when it makes sense to throw a game away.
Also, not to give that sort of thing too much credence, but it feels like the sort of thing that can destroy a clubhouse at a point where there's not much time to recover, and absolutely tank any chance Baker has of being extended for next year.
This where having someone like Schwarber leading off is super fun. He's patient and will get a good look a few of Greinke's offerings to start the game.
I mean, I'm glad they didn't just give up. I just think it was the rational play.
See, that's the way that the people who don't have the level of talent and confidence in it to make a major-league roster think. Those who do are thinking "we've just seen that the other team can score nine unanswered runs and we are better at baseball than they are". And as a person watching the games, we want them to think that way.
The 8th was not a lot of fun.
The 9th was an inning of baseball that was played.
And I’m also working from yhe idea that the Astros pitching is borked.
Which may not be entirely accurate.
The real problem with committing to Eovaldi for the 9th last night is that you really don't then know what effect it will have on him in the now-necessary Game 6. Maybe instead of 6 he gives you 5 or 4 innings instead. I think last night was sort of too clever by a half.
I'm sure Houck is the caddy for Sale, but if things really blow up you're in a situation where you likely burn Houck until a (hopeful!) Game 7 and Johnny Wholestaff. Leaving you with... Eovaldi and (maybe) Whitlock for an inning or two in Game 6 + Brasier/Taylor + ?.
It's less than ideal. Yes, yes, hindsight etc. But would Brasier really have been awful to bring in for 1 IP instead of Whitlock for 2, especially if you were committed to the idea Eovaldi was pitching the 9th no matter what? It would have allowed Whitlock to be able to go today.
Bah. Luckily I'll be unable to watch today's game.
As for Eovaldi he's gone 5.1, 5 and 5.1 innings in his three starts. I'm not worried about 25 pitches last night impacting Friday night.
This has felt a bit like 2008 in reverse. Early blow outs one way then a comeback win turns the series. Hopefully the Sox can rally like Tampa did though of course winning two on the road is tougher than winning one at home.
1986 Down 3-1
1988 Over
1990 Over
1999 Down 3-1
2003 2-2
2004 Down 3-1
2007 Down 3-1
2008 Down 3-1
2013 2-2
2018 Up 3-1
2021 2-2
They've only led after four games once (won that series), split the two series they were tied, but of the five series they were down 3-1 they won two of them, should have won a third and forced a game seven in a fourth.
So the people who were "only" thinking that the Red Sox "could win it" a couple days ago were... right?
And, having said that, will now likely watch the Sox win two blowouts. I started the postseason insisting that only a fool would predict the outcome of a short series and within a week was making predictions. Serves me right.
Schwarber 1B, Hernández CF, Devers 3B, Bogaerts SS, Martinez DH, Verdugo LF, Arroyo 2B, Renfroe RF, Plawecki C.
Honestly this is probably the right mix of dealing with a struggling guy and having your best team out there. Hopefully Hunter gets going tonight.
It was the worst of times, and the best of times.
I'm nervous about tonight's game. Nothing specific. Just generally feeling antsy and wishing it were already 8:08.
Re: Line-up. Batting JD sixth was kind of bad-ass. It might not've been the best decision and I'm glad he moved up a spot, but it did give the impression that "all these guys can RAKE".
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