The Case for Doing Nothing

With the trade deadline just a few weeks away there is much chatter building about what the Red Sox should be looking to do.  Some want the *NSYNC deadline approach (“buy buy buy”) and some want a Barenaked Ladies approach (“sell sell sell”).  But I am here to talk about the less exciting but potentially more lucrative “don’t do a damned thing” approach.

Let’s start with this.  The Red Sox are a flawed team.  The holes are obvious and have been since the winter.  The pitching is thin (and Garrett Whitlock’s status doesn’t help that), the middle infield is a horror show and just generally the depth on this team is insufficient.  After a disappointing in every way 2022 a lot of things are moving in the right direction in 2023.  The Sox seem to have found in no particular order;

A potential Ace starter
A starting first baseman
A starting centerfielder
A starting left fielder
A starting catcher (maybe)

They have done those things while locking up their stud third baseman (who is admittedly having a bit of a down year by his lofty standards) and seeing their starting right fielder return to form.  There are nits to be picked within the “findings” I listed but the fact is these guys have all shown that they can do a job.  On top of that the news from the minor leagues has been almost uniformly good with a couple of exceptions (injuries to Bleis and especially troublingly Mata).  Add in the potential return of a pretty darned good middle infielder in Trevor Story and with Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke looming the future is bright.

Let’s talk about Story for a minute, and yeah I’m jumping all over the place here but deal with it.  There has been a lot of complaint about Story and him “not being a shortstop” but I think this may be misguided.  Story has been a well regarded defensive shortstop over the course of his career.  Much has been made that he doesn’t have the arm for it anymore but just as we see pitchers rebound to show a return to previous high velocities after arm surgery might we see something similar with Story.  If he can be an adequate defensive shortstop and return to his offensive form as a Rockie with a 112 OPS+ let’s recognize what a HUGE upgrade that is for this team.  This is currently a .500 team with their shortstops combining for an OPS+ of 75 and almost comically bad defense.  So in theory they are close enough that a seller’s approach is probably unwise.

Having said all that the pitching is terribly thin.  While the Sox are only 3 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot (with the Yanks, Toronto and Angels ahead of them) does this team feel like it’s capable of a run?  I’ll be honest, I don’t think so.  I feel like the Sox are not just one but two good to very good starters away from being able to consider that.  So I don’t really want to see them going overboard on buying right now either.  The problem with buying is that you maybe get close enough to make a run or even make a playoff spot but give up potentially useful long term pieces.

And all of this gets to the point I’m kind of trying to think about making (like I said, all over the place here).  I always find the “buyer” and “seller” idea a bit nonsense in a good year.  Every team should be in “buy” mode at all times.  That doesn’t mean you buy for right now, maybe you buy for the long term.  If the right deal comes up you do it.  But selling for the sake of selling has always seemed dumb to me.  “Let’s unload Duvall, Jansen, Martin and Paxton” is a great idea if you are dealing with a video game or a fantasy team.  But if you are dealing with the real world there IS value in mediocrity.  If the Sox can come home at 83-79 and maybe squeak into 4th place I think the fan base will feel a lot better.  Trading all those guys and getting “prospects” in return sounds like a great idea but the reality is that you are NOT getting prospects in return.  You are getting guys who play in the minor leagues.

The Sox have had the unfortunate opportunity to be in a seller’s mindset a few times in recent years.  Their deadline acquisitions have been;

Reese McGuire
Taylor Broadway
Tommy Pham
Wilyer Abreu
Enmanuel Valdez
Nick Pivetta
Connor Seabold
Jacob Wallace
Zach Bryant
Jeisson Rosario
Hudson Potts

The reality is that the Sox are not likely to hit a home run with any deadline deals.  Jansen?  Craig Kimbrel was traded by the Cubs a couple of years ago at the deadline.  The White Sox got Nick Madrigal (88 OPS+, 0.8 WAR this year) and Codi Heuer (7.82 ERA in AAA) for Kimbrel who was having a hell of a year up to that point.  I’m a firm believer in the idea that success breeds success.  If you create a winning organization it is a lot easier to win on a regular basis.  Give Brayan Bello a taste of a decent team (and for the love of god get the guy who throws a lot of groundballs a decent freakin’ shortstop).  Give Triston Casas and Jarren Duran role models.  Don’t just say “well we can’t win it all so screw it” say “let’s take a step forward.”  78 wins last year, 83 this year, 88 in 2024, 93 in 2025, etc…

The Sox have done just this in recent years.

71
78
93
93
108

That was the 2014-2018 stretch.  I’m not suggesting that 108 is in the semi-near future but 93 and a division title or three certainly can be.  Having said all of this obviously Chaim Bloom should be working.  If he gets a good offer, particularly for a player under club control like the Mariners did with Luis Castillo last year then yeah you do it.  But don’t just blow it up.  Get better.  Send the message that the Boston Red Sox with four World Series titles in 20 years are a team about winning and this last place bullshit is not acceptable.  The time for breaking down is past.  The Red Sox should be making progress both figuratively (Casas, Bello, et al…) and literally (win more than you won last year).