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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Tuesday, April 19, 2022The First Big TestThe 2021 Red Sox were in many ways a bully team. They had their way with lesser opponents finishing with the third best record in the league against sub-.500 teams but the 7th best against teams over .500. They also led the league in games played against teams over .500 (94) courtesy of their division. Not much is changing schedule-wise in 2022 with the AL East being a grind so if the Sox want to ascend to last year’s success they will need to beat the best. After a relatively mild early schedule things get challenging for the next three days as the Toronto Blue Jays come to town. It’s not a stretch to say that the Blue Jays very well could be the be the best of the American League so the Sox will need to be at their best. The challenge will be interesting with the Sox having their top three starters; Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck set to go against the Jays’ righty heavy lineup. I think the first week and a half of the season has gone somewhat predictably for the good guys. 5-5 isn’t anything special but it’s fine. I’ve probably been irrevocably scarred by 2011 and 2012 so just stay afloat and figure it out early in the season is fine. So far there aren’t any massive outliers in terms of performance. Some guys slumping (hey Kiké) and some guys off to quick start (DOOGS!) but I think the offense has more to give. Free agent signing Trevor Story is off to a rough start and thinking about it that’s not surprising. He signed late, missed some time for the birth of a child then got food poisoning the first week. If you are looking for causes for concern I’d direct you to first base where Bobby Dalbec has returned to first half 2021 form. In completely unrelated news Triston Casas is hitting .282/.420/.564 at Worcester with 9Ks and 9BBs. It is worth noting that Casas struggled in the WooSox’ series in Jacksonville and has raked in the series in Worcester which was hitter friendly a year ago. The other mild cause for concern is JD Martinez who after a fast start last year was fairly ordinary the second half last year. However while the fast start (.984 OPS through May 31) made the numbers look a bit purtier for much of 2021 he still had a .265/.322/.484 line from June 1 forward. I’d expect that to be a pretty good expectation for JD in 2022.and sample size warnings and all that but his K rate and BB rate are consistent with past seasons so he doesn’t appear unusually overmatched. On the mound I think Alex Cora has done a pretty good job leveraging people. He has quickly identified Jake Diekman as a crucial arm. I get a Takashi Saito vibe from how Cora is going to use him with Diekman being a trusted reliever who can pitch as early as the sixth or be used as a conventional closer as the season goes on. Obviously the bullpen star has been Garrett Whitlock and I’m curious to see if Cora arranges things to have Whitlock take Houck’s start in Toronto next week which Houck will have to miss due to Canada’s rule about vaccinations. One guy whose numbers actually look better than I’d expected is Ryan Brasier. He hasn’t filled me with confidence so far allowing 5 of 7 inherited runners to score. This has not been a strong suit of his over the course of his career (40% compared to league average of 32%). Any time you are dealing with relievers the sample sizes get hairy but if I were Cora after shaving the beard I’d be reconsidering using Brasier mid-inning. Meeting Plawecki’s family the other day was a lot more interesting before I found out he had COVID. I could have done without the home test yesterday but hey it was negative so I’m not dying. I mean I am, we all are, but it shouldn’t be too immediate so that’s nice. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful
Posted: April 19, 2022 at 08:17 AM | 67 comment(s)
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1. villageidiom Posted: April 19, 2022 at 05:50 PM (#6072604)10 games in is 10 games in. If the sample size is too small to believe for JDM and Story and Bogaerts and Hernandez then it's certainly too small to believe for Dalbec. If he improves, great, and if not he'll play his way out of the starting job. I'm OK with either outcome, although the former might be better if he ultimately goes the Benintendi route. It also helps for, like, winning games.
So far I am loving the Jake Diekman experience.
I think Game 2 has Angel Hernandez behind the plate, so anything can happen.
Next week is when we find out who hasn't gotten their shots.
I'm an idiot. Figured with the early news re: Houk being unavailable their next series was in Toronto, just never checked to confirm.
I look at those 10 games, not just the first 3, as the first big test.
There are moments when I suspect a lot of people in the clubhouse may be genuinely frustrated by the holdouts. Cora always seems willing to go right up to the line where he'd be calling someone out and I kind of suspected Eduardo Rodriguez was gone at some point last year when he was giving a press conference masked and just had this "what can I saw" look when someone asked about unvaccinated teammates.
Obviously we'll know for sure next week.
After tonight's loss to Toronto, Dalbec is at .139/.225/.250.
After tonight's doubleheader against Syracuse today, Casas (who had a pretty bad day) is at .239/.379/.478.
I'm not saying Casas should be up yet (he shouldn't be), but he *is* walking a lot, and hitting for power. I read somewhere that his offense thus far is almost entirely in Worcester, which appears to be quite the hitter's park. Regardless, if Dalbec is struggling like this in May, and if Casas gets that average up, there's going to be a lot of pressure to make that change. (For the record, I have never been a Dalbec guy, and think that stretch last summer where he was on fire in August was largely a fluke.)
That makes a lot of sense. The team certainly seems committed to giving Dalbec every chance to be successful on the field, and let's face it - there is not an obviously better option quite yet available.
Also, under "just noting this": Jarren Duran is, I think most agree, in the "make or break" mode of his career. He's 25, and is either going to stick in the big leagues or not shortly. With fears that JBJ would be a disaster offensively, I thought there was a very good chance Duran would get another crack at being an every day player pretty early if/when Bradley struggled at the plate.
Well, Duran (in a very small sample size) has started off hot...but Bradley has actually been fine offensively (better than Hunter Renfroe, FWIW), so there is little noise about getting Duran in, or JBJ out. The prospects Bloom got in that deal have also started off very well, with David Hamilton, in particular, looking very good. It wouldn't surprise me to see Hamilton get to Boston in an Arroyo-type role quickly if the team suffers a few injuries along the way.
--Cordero has hit well in AAA since last year and he's 27. He's probably going to get another shot at some point.
--Shaw hasn't really hit in a long time. They are likely to cut bait on him fairly soon.
--I agree with Jose that Dalbec has about a month before he moves to the short end of a platoon.
--If Casas doesn't look ready by early May, I'd think Cordero might get the call.
--If not Cordero or Casas, they could go another direction. Ryan Fitzgerald looked like a good utility/backup before crushing ST and AAA this year. Maybe he gets a shot?
Pivetta and Hill have not been good. The other 3 have. They can't afford 2 gas cans in the starting rotation.
Mitch Moreland, a Red Sox nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Moreland would've definitely scooped up that throw, no worries! And right now, I think Mitch would be hitting better also...
Dalbec: .154/.214/.269
Casas: .262/.395/.508
Dalbec: .161/.235/.355
Casas: .195/.320/.390
I don't understand Venable/Cora yesterday. Hill was great but they want to make the move in the fifth inning. Fine, it's a new world whatever. You've got Houck out there who is legitimately a starter. You bring him and let him go twice through the order like you do with Whitlock. I love Phillips Valdez but man, Houck is the choice there. Saving Houck to be the closer which is what Venable said afterwards just is the wrong move.
I feel strangely good about a pitching staff that is 8th in the league in R/G allowed. The starters have been good other than Pivetta and I'm confident he will be better and I'm liking what I'm seeing from the bullpen. Part of that is I trust Cora to get it right and part of it is they have been pretty good. I think Diekman, Strahm, Robles, Whitlock, Barnes is a strong base. As good as Whitlock was Saturday it's hard not to think he's going to get more starts though.
I will say it's becoming clear quickly that Bloom did drop the ball on building the bench. They need to have more there. Maybe he's putting his faith in guys like Casas and Downs and I think Arroyo will be better. Still, they need to be better.
I would say these splits are in too small of sample to mean anything, but then again, so are the overall stats I guess?
FWIW, here are Steamer's ROS projections:
Casas .251 .353 .450
Dalbec .228 .305 .457
Shaw .208 .306 .367
(I usually prefer ZIPS but it doesn't do a ROS projection for Casas.)
Yeah, they're all too small. My post was somewhat baited to get someone to complain about sample size, but I was hoping to catch someone less rational than you.
The Steamer ROS and ZiPS preseason both seem to say Casas and Dalbec will contribute around the same to wins from an offensive perspective, with Casas having a slight margin better than Dalbec. Dalbec is considered the better defender - again the difference is slight, but it's just large enough to offset the win-value difference in offense.
Replacing Dalbec with Casas is a rearranging-the-deck-chairs-on-the-Titanic move. Hernandez, Story, Vazquez, and Dalbec as a group need to hit better, and the backup options need to hit better as well. A couple weeks ago we were saying Bogaerts needs to hit better, and now he leads the team in OPS.
I still maintain that replacing Dalbec with Casas after 2022 is a great move. Casas still has much of the age/development curve working in his favor, while Dalbec does not.
This is where I throw in the reminder that it's 16 games. Memorial Day kids. Especially this year (well and future years I guess) with the expanded playoffs.
edit..and getting an everyday OF helps the bench, where Kiké can be useful.
I'll disagree here. This looks like a clear advantage to Casas on offense, and I don't think Dalbec is considered a better defender. I thought it was pretty much agreed upon that he's not good and that Casas is pretty solid.
This is a bad plan because I want everything now.
1. He's a 3rd baseman. While he could probably be a pretty good first baseman (he's got good hands, his throwing seems to get him in trouble) he's a natural 3rd baseman and has the tools to be very good. He's got great range, as I said great hands and if he can get steadier on the throws he'll be above average.
2. The Sox ain't dumb and they know their long term first baseman is probably Triston Casas. Casas by all accounts would not be able to play third so moving Devers creates a logjam. Yeah you can shift one of them to DH but then you still need a third baseman.
3. I don't think they even considered doing it but if they WERE going to do it this was not the year. Instead of spending the whole off-season working on it then coming in and spending spring training on it you'd have been asking a guy to shift with about 3 weeks training. That's a big ask. Trevor Story has had some ups and downs defensively and he's actually a very good defender who was asked to switch.
It was nice to seem them come back against both Tampa and the Jays today, but then to lose both games was tough to watch. They've got 2 more games in Toronto, hopefully can grab a win there, and maybe 2 in Baltimore and get a little run going.
Rob Bradford wrote a piece for WEEI talking about the starters not going deep enough in games. I think this is important but also not entirely accurate. He mentions they are 8th in the AL in relief innings which really isn't that bad, it's middle of the pack so that's just the nature of the way the game is played today. Beyond that I think the starters probably have had more to give. The last three games;
Sunday (Hill) - 4 IP, 0 runs, 62 pitches
Monday (Eovaldi) - 7 IP, 2 runs, 72 pitches
Tuesdsay (Pivetta) - 4.2 IP, 2 runs, 98 pitches
I can be a bit sympathetic toward lifting Pivetta when he did (2 outs, man on first, Vladito up) and even if he gets Guerrero his day is probably done but both Hill and Eovaldi probably had another inning in them.
If you haven't seen the end of the Twin-Tiger game watch that and thank Ted we aren't Tiger fans.
Twitter exists for people to put their petulance to work instantly because petulance never sleeps, so that point of view doesn't really need to be addressed. Suffice it to say that, even against as good a team as Toronto, the bullpen without Whitlock should be expected to get 3 outs before giving up 3 runs, and if they don't it's not the fault of anyone other than the people who played. And if they can't keep their opponent from getting 1 run in a tie game then their offense had damn well better not leave their team's great pitching performances stuck in tie games.
I've seen more polished endings to games in tee-ball.
These are, in ascending order, the final run differential for each of the 10 games: -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 +1 +1 +6. They could have somewhat easily gone 7-3 in this stretch, or 1-9. In those one-run losses they had given up this many runs: 1, 3, 3, 5. Most of those were winnable games if the offense were clicking.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying they're a great team that just happened to get unlucky. They are not playing like a great team at all. They are getting some great performances, but they are wasting them.
I suspect it is just one of those things but 1-4 in games managed by Venable, 7-8 in games managed by Cora is a thing. Those losses in Venables games featured some pretty questionable pitching maneuvers (not using Houck until it was much too late on Sunday, lifting Eovaldi and then bringing in Danish into a mess on Monday) deserve some scrutiny. Presumably Cora had some input either before the game or via phone (not sure if he's allowed to do that in a COVID situation) so putting it all on Venables would be incredibly unfair but it's a thing that happened.
As painful as these losses feel, that's what I find myself thinking as well - every time the sting of losing another close game fades away. No doubt (as VI and others pointed out) if only the offense was doing what it is capable of doing, this would've been a different month.
Fortunately it is just one month, and the full team is not playing up to their potential. It's not getting late early just yet and I remain hopeful!
If I'm actually right about everything than you weren't being a douche, but that would mean that I am not right about everything, which makes your comment "douchey". Unravel that!
They didn't pay Franchy Rusney money, did they? I hope not. He could be the new Will Mo Pena. Maybe a little better than Wily Mo in that all Wily Mo ever did was hit a ball hard now and then by accident.
Nah, he's paid very little. He was the return (him and Winkowski) for Benintendi. Who would be a rather handy player to have on the team right now (who knows, he very well could have needed a change to get that toasted outer shell off of him).
Trading Benny was a definite case of trading low. Wincowski looks like he could be useful but yeah probably wants a mulligan on that one. Jacksone raises the fair point that he may have needed a change of scenery but I don't know about that.
FWIW Renfroe isn't hitting at all either. The Renfroe/JBJ/Kids deal looks pretty good to me. Binelas and Hamilton are hitting in the minors and Renfroe for JBJ is a wash as both guys suck. The failure to get an adequate RHB OF is a perplexing miss.
I think he was. I looked up "2022 free agents", and he was on the list.
edit...they signed him to a 1 year deal, 7M. This is his 7th season.
edit...but he only had 5+ years at the time. You're right, he's a UFA next year.
I thought pitching would be a big weakness, and it still may be, once all the innings catch up to the bullpen. When/if that happens, look out below.
128 OPS+ disagrees with you. Having his 5 homers would've been really nice down the order. The team has 12 homers and is slugging under .340.
I'm just messing with you mate, I knew he'd had a good couple of games so it was funny to point it out. Of course JBJ looks to be finding his level from last year...and for us, that's not good.
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