The First Third

With the Sox having completed the first third of their schedule on an 84-78 pace I’m feeling purdy smart.  Having said that they’ve gotten here in a path that frankly I’ve found dramatically different than I anticipated with the most noticeable difference being that a team I thought would be pretty dull when the season started has actually been pretty entertaining.  They bookended the first 54 with two entertaining losses; rallying from 8-2 down to lose 10-9 on Opening Day and then last night’s 7-0 deficit turning into a 9-8 defeat.  In both cases the tie run was in scoring position when the game ended.  And really those games encapsulated the first third Sox.  This is a team that can hit but the pitching is dicey at best.  With that said, let’s have some thoughts on the good and bad of the first third;

Good - Masataka Yoshida - Quite simply Yoshida may be the single most important player when it comes to Chaim Blom’s employment opportunities.  The Sox were heavily questioned for their expenditure on Yoshida this winter and so far he has come through.  He has a 135 OPS+ and while his defense and base running have also been as advertised (this is not a good thing) he’s hitting enough to make up for it.

Bad - Kiké Hernandez - Suffice it to say that Red Sox Nation was underwhelmed by the willingness to let Xander Bogaerts go and there was not more whelming at the idea of Hernandez as the every day shortstop.  So far he’s struggled with the bat and his defense has been poor.  I love Kiké but he has no business being the regular shortstop unless he can get the bat going.

Good with reservations - Triston Casas - The numbers on Casas are not especially good (sub-.700 OPS) but the path there is encouraging.  In late April the Sox gave him consecutive days off and since then he has hit .257/.338/.429.  On a particularly positive note his K rate, while high, is not Dalbecian (Dalbeckian?) and he is drawing enough walks to be hopeful.  He is on an 18 home run pace but if he keeps his May pace going that number goes up to 21.  That’s good enough.  For me Casas is a good simply because I think we are seeing the progress we want to see from a highly regarded prospect.

Bad with caveats - Rafael Devers - I don’t mean this to be too much of a critique of the very talented Devers but the Sox didn’t pay $330 million for a 106 OPS+.  He’s slumped of late and is on pace for 39 homers and 138 RBI but the Sox need more out of him on a consistent basis.  I can’t help but wonder if he’s battling a minor injury at the moment or maybe a cold or something like that.  He’s been off for the last couple of weeks.

Good - Chaim Bloom - Look, let’s give the guy credit.  If you are a Sox fan his moves this winter have been very good at least from the standpoint of guys he’s brought in.  Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have delivered as promised, Yoshida is the player we hoped he would be, Casas is progressing, the non-trade, trade of JD Martinez for Justin Turner is a win for the Sox so far and some decisions to ride with players in they system (Jarren Duran, Connor Wong, Brayan Bello) are looking good.  Additionally I think Bloom probably deserves some credit for OKing decisions to demote struggling Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber.  The Sox are spending some money on their pitching staff and those two guys are getting a good chunk of it so it has to be a gut punch to demote them to mop up duty but it’s the right call.

Good - The Future of the Pitching - Bello, Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford are all looking like they can be useful (if not more) pieces. Assuming Garrett Whitlock can get it together I feel like if the Sox come out of 2023 with Bello/Houck/Whitlock in the rotation and Winckowski/Crawford as useful relievers going into next year that’s a big win.

Bad - Chaim Bloom - Yeah I know.  Hey, the guy did a nice job with people he brought in but some guys he let go have been performing well and for the most part they’ve been guys most of us would have liked to have back.  Xander Bogaerts I put more on ownership than Bloom but he’s on the masthead so he gets slapped around for it.  Bogie hasn’t been great for San Diego (110 OPS+) but obviously he would be a huge upgrade from Kiké.  Similarly the Sox decided to go with Klubot over Michael Wacha (3.45 ERA) and suffice it to say that has not worked.  The guy who has really dazzled is Nathan Eovaldi though to be fair I was OK with letting him walk.  Eovaldi is very much an inconsistent guy and there was reason to be concerned.  So while I can’t pretend he wouldn’t look awfully good pitching for the locals I was not particularly upset when they let him go.

Good or Bad - The Rookies - The Sox are rolling four rookies in regular roles with Jarren Duran and Connor Wong having forced themselves into the lineup through a bit of good fortune and good work.  Casas and Yoshida I’ve talked about already.  Duran and Wong have been good so far but at the same time there are red flags.  I am more concerned about Duran than Wong simply because Duran has more of a track record of struggles and his defense is dicey at best.  Wong is having a strange month of May (.245/.273/.604) bolstered by a crazy few games early in the month.  As Bill Parcells would say you are what you are and he’s a very good defensive catcher with a 104 OPS+.  A bit more reliability with the bat would be nice but tell me that performance doesn’t have a certain Vazquezness to it.  Duran by contrast had a good hot stretch but has struggled of late and is striking out a bunch still.

One guy I left off my regular list and probably shouldn’t is Emmanuel Valdez.  OK, he ain’t Bill Mazeroski out there with the glove but he looks like he can hit.  He needs to get the average up a bit from its current .247 but a middle infielder with a .169 ISO can be pretty useful.  Even if his future is more utility guy than anything else he looks like a nice player.

Good - Alex Cora - This has to be a pretty challenging group to manage.  There were a LOT of uncertainties coming into the year and the season has not made things easier but Cora has worked around it as well as can be expected.

I’m sure everyone has thoughts so far and heck I haven’t even mentioned Alex Verdugo yet.  I like where the Sox are right now.  I won’t be shocked if the next couple of weeks are a bit rough; 2 more with a hot Reds team, 4 with Tampa, 3 in Cleveland, 3 in the Bronx, 3 against the Rockies then 3 with the Yankees.  I think if the Sox can still stand above .500 when that 18 game stretch comes to a close they should feel good about things.  I’m not expecting this team to be a legit contender, there are both too many weaknesses and too many good teams in the AL, but if they can build and put together an 84-85 win season I think it’s a successful 2023.