Welcome back, buddy!

If 1 WAR is worth 7M, Verdugo is not a 3-4 WAR player.

If the OF had three 3-4 WAR players, it would be a very good OF. They don't have that. They probably don't have 1 of those. We'll see.

The seeds of Mookie being let go were planted when Dombrowski handed Sale his contract that has gone in a very predictable direction.

I was just thinking about this and here's my super scorching hot take: the loss of Mookie can be blamed on ... ... Ben Cherington!

But why, Darren? He wasn't even the GM when it happened, or when the payroll ballooned beyond the tax threshold, causing the team to cut back.

That is correct, however, Cherington was responsible for two signings that made it necessary for Dave Dombrowski to blow past the limit. Cherington signed two of the worst contracts in the team's history, ones that carved massive chunks out of the payroll while providing virtually no value. For your consideration:

Pablo Sandoval: 5 years, $95 mil, -1.6 WAR
Hanley Ramirez: 4 years, $88 mil, 1.7 WAR

From 2015 through 2018, the team had $41 mil in AAV that produced 0 value. In 2019, that number dropped to $19 mil. Hooray. Here's where the Sox's payroll stood in 2018 and 2019:

2018: $239 mil (tax threshold: $197 mil)
2019: $220 mil (tax threshold: $206 mil)

Take off those two deals and you have:

2018: $199 mil (tax threshold: $197 mil)
2019: $201 mil (tax threshold: $206 mil)

So in 2018, they could have adjusted their spending slightly and gotten under. In 2019, they would have been under with no adjustment. In either case, no massive tax payment for going over yet again is looming as they are considering extending Mookie. So there you have it--it's all Cherington's fault!

LF - Alex Verdugo

RF - Masataka Yoshida

I was under the impression that their positions were the opposite.

Pitching - This is a challenge to say the least. Brayan Bello is the best pitching prospect the Sox have had since Clay Buchholz. I think he’s going to be very good. After him though there is just little behind him. This needs work and obviously that’s problematic.

Keith Law raised some eyebrows with his recent article in the Athletic by ranking the Sox the #23 farm system. One thing he cited was the lack of starting pitching on their full season rosters. I'm not sure he's right about that (and it doesn't seem to be a consensus), but it's interesting how graduations/transactions have affected the situation. The Sox have recently graduated Bello and Houck, who are both legitimate starters so far. I'd place Bello in the 2-4 range, and Houck in the 3-4-MIRP range. They also have Whitlock, who was not a product of the system, but is young and good and locked up cheap. I feel like the middle to back of their rotation is in really good shape going forward, but of course, it's the front that's hardest to fill.

I think Nate is right about the positioning in the OF. I understand Bivens's skepticism on Verdugo, but I read Jose's comment as somewhat hopeful and based more on his assessment than the consensus on Verdugo's talent.

Moved over here from the previous thread so nobody misses my great insights:

It's interesting to see and hear what people are saying about Yoshida now. Initially, he didn't even make most of the top 50 free agents lists I saw. Fangraphs had him as a 35+ prospect. After the initial shock of his contract wore off, there seems to have been a shift in opinion or possibly backtracking on those assessments. First, I think the projections probably influenced some people--Steamer 3.8 WAR, ZIPS 3.7 WAR (both have him with the highest batting average in the AL: .298 and .305, respectively). People are more talking about how they expected more of a 3/30 to 4/48 type deal, despite the fact that they left him off those top 50 lists where the last players listed were getting like 1/10. And Fangraphs now has him as a 45+.

On the recent BA podcast discussing the Red Sox farm system (highly recommend), the host and Alex Speier talked a bit about Yoshida. The host said that talking to scouts/etc the weekend Yoshida signed, they were saying he was maybe an average player/second division starter, 4 years $48 mil. contract expected. (This is nothing like what we were hearing publicly.) Speier agreed with the expected market but said Boston's reasoning was:

--They thought some other teams would bid much higher and wanted to be sure to have the top bid.
--Exceptional contact and recent addition of power.
--His bat fits Fenway well.
--They trust their scouting in Japan, which is more extensive than most.

I'd like to nominate Devlin Granberg non-prospect minor league darling. Granberg dominated at Dallas Baptist as a senior, where he was a finalist for the Dick Howser Award. The Red Sox drafted him in the 6th round in 2018, giving him a meager $40K bonus (though I think that's kind of high for a senior sign?). He played some OF and 1B initially, but has more recently been playing CF and is considered at least passable there. Although he's been a bit old for his levels, he has hit every place he's gone:

2018 A-, age 22, 256 PA, 142 wRC+
2019 A, age 23 420 PA, 142 wRC+
2019 A+, age 23, 99 PA, 63 wRC+
2021 A+, age 25, 113 PA, 173 wRC+
2021 AA, age 25, 281 PA, 117 wRC+
2022 AA, age 26, 164 PA, 151 wRC+
2022 AAA, age 26, 196 PA, 92 wRC+

Despite his success on both sides of the ball, SoxProspects does not put him in their top 60 and Fangraphs didn't have him in the top 51 in 2022, nor did he merit a mention as an other prospect of note. But still here he sits, on the precipice of the Majors, with the following projections:

ZIPS 370 PA, 96 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
Steamer600 600 PA, 100 wRC+, 2.2 WAR

I, for one, welcome our new Nava overlord.

The approach this winter has been pretty poor. My biggest issue with Chaim Bloom has been his lack of decisiveness. This goes back to last winter; going into last season with Dalbec at first and JBJ in right were reasonable decisions. The decision to do that with no satisfactory fallback was not. This team needed a Chris Young or Cody Ross ready if JBJ cratered. They needed to recognize that Dalbec was no certainty and have an option.

I'm not sure that's a lack of decisiveness. I think you are closer to the mark in saying he isn't as bold as Epstein, though the other side of that coin is that he is more disciplined than Epstein. I think Bloom has his assessment of what he's willing to pay, or willing to give up, to get or retain a player and he simply isn't going to go beyond that. Boldness gets you Curt Schilling in 2004, but it also gets you Pablo Sandoval, or the Sale extension. I think they actually want him not to be bold.

Getting back to the lack of depth... I'm not assigning a character trait to it. They weren't a deep team, and I'm just going to assume from that that depth wasn't considered a priority that year. It's a long-term priority, but not a priority to have solved in 2022.

Just to be clear, as a fan I was disappointed in the lack of depth in 2022. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect a team having their resources - which included the ability to pay Paxton to sit all last year on the chance he can pitch this year - to have better backup options.

I think it's the Brock Holt Depth Fallacy all over again. BITD Holt was their depth solution for all OF roles (with Betts sliding over to CF if JBJ were out) and basically all infield roles. They can cover multiple positions with one guy! But what happens when two starters are out? Or one starter and Holt? And what happens when that's the case for a huge part of the season? With the 2022 Red Sox Kike Hernandez had the Brock Holt role, except he was also the primary CF. Their lack of depth got exposed often.

re: the door hinge screws. tap some glue and toothpicks in the hole, and after they dry, snip and sand them flat. redrill small pilot holes for the screws.

That's what I'd recommend on the door half of the hinge. Frame half - 2"(+) screws.

I think the team should score runs about the same as last year, but I'm not all that confident the pitching will be any better.

but I read Jose's comment as somewhat hopeful and based more on his assessment than the consensus on Verdugo's talent.

Probably. And I disagree with it. Verdugo is not a $20M talent.

I hope this is an appropriate place to note this - Fred Lynn just celebrated his 71st birthday with double knee replacements!

Fred Lynn
@19fredlynn
·
7h
Ready to go home. Two new knees for my birthday.. what will I get next year?
#feelinggood Thanks for all the well wishes. #Appreciation.

.............

Luis Tiant
@realElTiante
From one hospital bed to another my friend, wish you a Happy Birthday and get well soon @19fredlynn
and thank you for the well wishes amigo. #friendsandteammates #RedSoxNation @RedSox
@Angels
5:41 PM · Feb 3, 2023

................

Fred Lynn
@19fredlynn
I guess that ‘75 series was harder on us than we thought! You get better soon, my friend. @RedSox

Fred Lynn just celebrated his 71st birthday with double knee replacements!

Probably rules him out for 2023. Too bad, he might have helped Boston.

Lynn seems like the nicest, chillest dude in the world.

Just took a look back at Seiya Suzuki's projection for 2022:

ZIPS: .287/.351/.480, 124 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
Steamer: .286/.386/.528 (140 wRC+)

Just by the numbers alone, Yoshida is as good or better. It's really odd that he was being treated as some kind of non-factor until he received his contract.

Seiya Suzuki's projection for 2022:

And his actual numbers:

.266/.336./.433. 116 OPS+ 2.0 WAR


He made $8M last year and this year he makes $18M. Yuck.

A few points:

- It is always great to see Jose's thoughts - hope you are well!

- In terms of the #23 farm system ranking from Keith Law, I did see a lot of teeth-gnashing about this on various Red Sox podcasts, Twitter feeds, etc. I think the problem with the system right now is the lack of high-ceiling prospects that are relatively close to the majors. By definition, a high-ceiling prospect in AA is more valuable than one in low-A, in part because there is a less variable set of outcomes for the AA prospect. The trade value for a legit AA or AAA prospect is much higher for the same reason. The Red Sox have very few prospects in AA or AAA to open 2023 who have a high ceiling.

On SoxProspects.com, here are the prospects in the top 20 who in AA or AAA:

2. Casas - will be in the bigs this year
4. Rafaela - AA; high defensive ceiling, unsure of the bat will play
5. Yorke - AA; really disappointing 2022, hopefully because of injuries. He fell off of most Top 100 lists this winter
6. Mata - AAA; injury-prone, but seems like he could at least be an above-average reliever
8. Walter - AAA; low-ceiling, turned 26 last September
13. Murphy - AAA; low-ceiling, struggled in AAA last year
14. Lugo - AA; described at SoxProspects as "ceiling of a reserve infielder".
17. Enmanuel Valdez - AAA; acquired as part of Vazquez trade from Houston, he can probably hit righties, but has no defensive position. Astros obviously didn't think he had a future with them, and kind of disappointed the Red Sox aren't giving him a chance to be part of a successful DH platoon, and see what he can do.
20. Niko Kavadas - AA; below-average defensive first baseman who turned 24 last fall, struggled in his first exposure to AA.

That's it, folks. Most of the value of the team's farm system is based on Mayer and Bleis, who are both below AA, and Casas, who is now in Boston. Rafaela and Yorke being able to hit are the best shot at the lineup getting legit additional help from the system between now and the end of 2024; Mata is the best shot at a pitcher on this list making a legit impact on the parent team in 2023.

This is the challenge Bloom faces, even entering his fourth year on the job. It has taken 3+ years to get the farm system even to this point, where there is depth, but little high-ceiling talent. Bloom keeps signing short-term veterans to fill holes while he 1) waits for the system to start graduating legit talent, and 2) tries to flush out the salaries that are delivering little value (Sale and Price), but taking up payroll. Look who he acquired this off-season: None of these guys have anything to do with the next great Red Sox team. If they get lucky, the majority of them will stay healthy and perform well, they'll win 88 games, and get a wild card slot. Then, if it's like 2021, maybe you get lucky and win a round or two, and it is suddenly a pretty fun year while waiting for Sale's money to come off the books, and Mayer and Bleis to move up the system.

If the Patriots were still in dynasty mode, I think fans would be more patient about the Red Sox and their "Hunter Renfroe/Justin Turner/Garrett Richards/Corey Kluber" strategy. The Celtics and Bruins crushing things will distract the fans this April, May, and (hopefully!) June. But if the Sox suck come late June, and there is nothing else for New Englanders to watch on TV but the Red Sox, I think the knives are going to be out, big time. And they'll be even more people on the beaches of New England this summer, without the competition of going to Fenway on a sunny weekend afternoon...

The other reason Law is down on our farm system is because of the lack of top pitching prospects.

That's really the big thing. Since Bloom has taken over Boston hasn't drafted a pitcher in the first two rounds yet. It could be that (a) position player prospects are more reliably projectable or more likely to produce something of value, so they're focusing on restocking there first; or (b) the choices available at the time they drafted leaned that way. ISTR Epstein focused on position players in his first couple of drafts, and after that had hacked the draft pick compensation system to draft good pitchers after giving up their own free agents. Bloom doesn't have the same luxury on the latter, so it's harder to do a full overhaul that quickly. Likewise, there effectively was no 2020 draft (only 6 rounds IIRC) and Boston lost its 2nd-round pick that year for having a consistently high payroll.

I mean, Bloom has been under many of the same constraints as every other team out there, so it's not like this is a defense of him. I'm just building up to this question: if the team wants quality MLB pitching, are they better off developing it themselves or developing whatever players they can and then trading from prospect strength to get quality MLB pitching from other teams? (And of course there's the follow-up question we can't answer: is this their strategy?)

I mean, the Yankees are close so they signed Rodon. When the Red Sox get close they can spend for the FA ace of that year. Or 2.

Look who he acquired this off-season: None of these guys have anything to do with the next great Red Sox team.

Your overall point is solid but Yoshida had better be a part of the next great Red Sox team.

If they get lucky, the majority of them will stay healthy and perform well, they'll win 88 games, and get a wild card slot. Then, if it's like 2021, maybe you get lucky and win a round or two, and it is suddenly a pretty fun year while waiting for Sale's money to come off the books, and Mayer and Bleis to move up the system.

There's an article up on the Athletic that argues that the Red Sox are the highest variance team in the league, and I think that's by design for all of the reasons you've listed. Roll the dice and see if you can hit on a couple of fliers at the same time and compete.

That's it, folks. Most of the value of the team's farm system is based on Mayer and Bleis, who are both below AA, and Casas, who is now in Boston. Rafaela and Yorke being able to hit are the best shot at the lineup getting legit additional help from the system between now and the end of 2024; Mata is the best shot at a pitcher on this list making a legit impact on the parent team in 2023.

This is the challenge Bloom faces, even entering his fourth year on the job. It has taken 3+ years to get the farm system even to this point, where there is depth, but little high-ceiling talent.

This is maybe a little unfair. Between last year and this, they've graduated Casas, Bello, Houck, and Whitlock (sort of?). Next year it's Rafaela (I think high defensive ceiling sells him short), Yorke if he's any good, and maybe Mayer. There are others that I think have value (Winckowski, Mata, Walter), who may contribute as well.

This is not a talent factory like LA, but it looks like they've started feeding the team from their system.

I mean, the Yankees are close so they signed Rodon. When the Red Sox get close they can spend for the FA ace of that year. Or 2.

I don't see why a team would think it's a good idea to sign Jansen but not think they're close enough to sign Rodon.

I don't get the Jansen deal at all, except that he'll be gone when they're ready to get serious and spend on aces, so that money will be there.

There is almost never a reason not to sign closers. They can help your team, and/or they can be traded for worthwhile prospects at the deadline. Pretty much the only time it doesn't work out is if they get injured and can't help with either.

Here at Encore, the Sox win total is set at 76.5. I was planning on betting the under, but sheesh i can't root for them to be that bad.

That's a better # than they set last year, obviously. It isn't a slam dunk.

I believe Baseball Prospectus has the Sox around 78 wins; it projects nobody in the division getting to 90 wins, but everybody else being above .500. Their defense of that projection is that it is a very good division, so above-average teams are going to beat each other up, keeping the projections down a bit.

Some people on this thread are relatively optimistic; I am not, at least for 2023. For this team to win, say, 88+ games, I think most of the following things have to happen:

THINGS LIKELY TO HAPPEN:
- Devers is excellent
- Bullpen is very good
- Casas is good enough that he is a meaningful upgrade at 1B over the past few years
- Yoshida is good enough that he, too, is a meaningful upgrade on RF over last year.

THINGS THAT *COULD* HAPPEN
- Casas and/or Yoshida could be a fair amount better than that relatively low bar; Yoshida could be very, very good
- Sale could give them 150 excellent innings
- Bello could emerge as one of the best young starting pitchers in baseball

THINGS THAT PROBABLY WON"T HAPPEN, BUT I SUPPOSE COULD
- Paxton ends up being an above-average starter who stays healthy for most of the season
- Whitlock ends up being largely as good as he was in 2021, but as a starting pitcher for 150 innings
- Verdugo looks more like 2020 Verdugo (I am highly skeptical of this...)
- Rafaela hits enough to start 2023 that he is put in center field by mid-season, providing outstanding defense with some speed and pop
- Mata ends up being a valuable mid-season addition to the bullpen or back of the rotation. (Sort of what Houck was in 2021 for Boston.)

The more I actually play everything out, the more I realize that Bloom is trying to replicate 2021, without Bogaerts at SS, but with Yoshida in the OF, more starting pitching depth, and a better bullpen than 2021:

2021/2023
C - Vazquez/McGuire
1B - Dalbec/Casas
2B - A bunch of blah/A bunch of blah
3B - Devers/Devers
SS - Bogaerts/Hernandez and Mondesi?
OF - Verdugo/Hernandez/Renfroe vs Verdugo/Yoshida/Duvall
DH - Martinez/Turner
SP1 - Eovaldi/Sale
SP2 - ERod/Whitlock
SP3 - Pivetta/Pivetta
SP4 - Richards/Kluber
SP5 - Perez/Paxton
Young starter who replaces one of the veteran guys as the year goes on: Houck/Bello
Wildcard starter(s) - Sale/Mata
Closer - Barnes/Jansen
Rest of bullpen:
Whitlock-Ottavino-Taylor-Sawamura-Darwinzon Hernandez

vs

Martin-Houck-Schreiber-Rodriguez-Bleier-Brasier-Mills

When you do the exercise, you can see that 2021 had Bogaerts and a healthy, effective Eovaldi going for it. But the 2023 version has the upside of Casas and Yoshida; Paxson has a higher ceiling than Richards or Perez ever did in 2021; the bullpen is deeper than 2021; and the AAA pitching staff has guys who could be helpful as the season goes on, particularly for the bullpen (Mata, Murphy, Walter, Crawford, etc.)

You realize how much better the 2023 team is with Bogaerts playing SS and hitting in the middle of the lineup; it takes a lot of improvement in other areas to make up for the decline at SS.

For this team to win, say, 88+ games, I think most of the following things have to happen

I think even with those things they also *need* to have at least one of their divisional foes completely fall apart. They need to go 12-1 against someone instead of the 7-6 record we might expect with all the stuff you mention going right.

I'm not confident Sale or Paxton will be effective. I hope I'm wrong.

ZIPs projected standings have them at 79-83.

Some people on this thread are relatively optimistic; I am not, at least for 2023. For this team to win, say, 88+ games, I think most of the following things have to happen:

Without doing the math, that list sounds like it would make the Red Sox a juggernaut. For example, in the rotation, you'd have Sale (150 IP, great), Bello (top young starter, so also great), Whitlock (as good as 2021 in the rotation so... great!), Paxton (healthy and above average). How many teams have 1-4 starters this good?


On RF/1B: [corrected] RF produced 0.6 WAR last year and 1B -0.5. I'd say it's very likely that Casas/Yoshida and co. are significantly better than that.

I have no confidence in Paxton for the upcoming season. After the 2020 season, Corey Kluber was 34 years old and coming off two seasons where he had pitched a total of 8 games and 36 innings. Kluber had his agents set up a showcase workout which was attended by most teams, and resulted in several 8-figure offers. He chose to sign with New York for $11 million. While Paxton's circumstances were not exactly the same, they were similar. Instead of arranging a showcase as Kluber had done, he immediately jumped on a $4 million option. To me, Paxton's unwillingness to demonstrate his progress and to see if the market might bring him a better offer is a big red flag.

Paxton's unwillingness to demonstrate his progress

He was injured when they signed him, and rehabbing. What was he going to showcase?

He was injured when they signed him, and rehabbing. What was he going to showcase?

My reference to an unwillingness to showcase was for this current offseason, not December 2021, when the Sox originally signed him.

[Baseball Prospectus] projects nobody in the division getting to 90 wins, but everybody else being above .500. Their defense of that projection is that it is a very good division, so above-average teams are going to beat each other up, keeping the projections down a bit.

I'm no whiz when it comes to critiquing projection systems, but that doesn't seem to make sense with the more balanced schedule this season, particularly (all) division foes facing each other 52 times instead of 76.

On RF/1B: [corrected] RF produced 0.6 WAR last year and 1B -0.5. I'd say it's very likely that Casas/Yoshida and co. are significantly better than that.

I think we'll be significantly better at those positions. The problem is that Bogaerts was 5.8 WAR last year. So if you think of RF/1B/SS as something 5.9 WAR in 2022, combined, then ask yourself: How many more WAR than that can the three positions produce in 2023? The Red Sox decline at SS in 2023 may be bad enough to largely wipe out the expected combined gains at 1B and RF.

And, yes - if Sale pitches 150 innings, and Bello has a successful year, then the team probably will win 88 games. I don't think this team is going to reach .500, so I am very skeptical about Sale, Paxton, and Kluber being healthy; skeptical that Whitlock can stay healthy all season; and skeptical about the middle infield situation working out. I think the bullpen will probably be very good - but if you are losing 4-2 after 6 innings every night, all the bullpen can do is prevent you from losing by more.

To me, Paxton's unwillingness to demonstrate his progress and to see if the market might bring him a better offer is a big red flag.

Totally agree. The Red Sox say he's healthy, he says he's healthy, but... the Sox weren't willing to pick up their option on him and he was willing to accept $4 million rather than hit the open market. That doesn't sound like someone I want to count on to be a contributor.

Why is Paxton's contract viewed as a 1 year $10M contract for '22? Didn't he only get paid $6M last year? The $4M this year wasn't guaranteed - both Paxton and the Sox could have declined the options, there was no buy out. Cot's has a $10M value in last year's tax spreadsheet for him, and Spotrac is saying the same as well.

This is how Sportac summarizes Paxton's deal:

James Paxton signed a 1 year / $10,000,000 contract with the Boston Red Sox, including $10,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $10,000,000. In 2023, Paxton will earn a base salary of $4,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $4,000,000.

???

For whatever reason, they also have Hosmer counting as $1.75 mil against the tax threshold. Also ??? If that's the case, that trade for hhim looks very bad.

I think we'll be significantly better at those positions. The problem is that Bogaerts was 5.8 WAR last year. So if you think of RF/1B/SS as something 5.9 WAR in 2022, combined, then ask yourself: How many more WAR than that can the three positions produce in 2023? The Red Sox decline at SS in 2023 may be bad enough to largely wipe out the expected combined gains at 1B and RF.

This is an interesting question too. Let's see:
Fangraphs Depth Charts
1B 2.5 WAR
SS 3.5 WAR
RF 2.9 WAR
Total: 8.9 WAR

If you swap in LF for RF to capture the addition of Yoshida:
Fangraphs Depth Charts
1B 2.5 WAR
SS 3.5 WAR
RF 3.8 WAR
Total: 9.8 WAR

Those are big improvements, although they seem a bit optimistic on Mondesi's health and Hernandez's defense at SS. (It should also be noted that the WAR figures on the FG depth charts are a bit inflated. The Red Sox are #14, so middle of the pack. But they have 44.1 WAR--which I believe should mean about 89 wins. Something doesn't add up there.)

When I'm feeling optimistic, I am hopeful that Bloom and company are ahead of the curve and see things in this team that we don't from the outside. For example, the pitchers are healthier than we know, they project Yoshida as an all-star, Bello is indeed a great young pitcher, etc.

This is what MLB Trade Rumors said at the time:

The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.

Did more info come to light after this? Because it seems very clear that if this was correct, that he should have only counted $6 mil against 2022.

Did more info come to light after this? Because it seems very clear that if this was correct, that he should have only counted $6 mil against 2022.

Just trying to add confusion to this - but if his $4M player option counted as a buy out, and no matter what he got the money, wouldn't his tax hit be $5M last year and $5M this year? $10M/2 = $5M

If he does only count $4M this year, because he's effectively signed a one year contract, then how could he count anything other than $6M for last year?

This is how Sportac summarizes Paxton's deal:

James Paxton signed a 1 year / $10,000,000 contract with the Boston Red Sox, including $10,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $10,000,000. In 2023, Paxton will earn a base salary of $4,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $4,000,000.

???

For whatever reason, they also have Hosmer counting as $1.75 mil against the tax threshold. Also ??? If that's the case, that trade for hhim looks very bad.

Cot's spreadsheet doesn't have anything for Hosmer against Boston's CBT. The only discarded player counting against them is Barnes ($5.625m).

Cot's also has Paxton at $4m AAV for this year. Their Red Sox page has the contract listed as 1yr/$10m plus options, but then in the details says $6m for 2022 and a $4m player option for 2023. Regardless, it's $4m for this year.

Cot's spreadsheet doesn't have anything for Hosmer against Boston's CBT. The only discarded player counting against them is Barnes ($5.625m).

Which does make sense for this year - the Sox are off the hook with the Cubs having signed him. I believe if he is DFA'd again this year, and no one picks him up for '24 or '25 the Sox would be responsible for the league minimum.

Cot's also has Paxton at $4m AAV for this year.

They do seem to be correct this year, but they also have him as a $10M hit on last years opening day sheet.

Cot's also has Paxton at $4m AAV for this year. Their Red Sox page has the contract listed as 1yr/$10m plus options, but then in the details says $6m for 2022 and a $4m player option for 2023. Regardless, it's $4m for this year.

Worth remembering that the Sox were only $6.15M over the AAV cap last year, *with* Paxton counting as $10M. If Paxton really only should have been $6M, then Hosmer's $2.5M tax hit was what caused them to be over. Doesn't really matter, and I am sure (hopeful?) that the Sox accountants have a better handle on this than we do, but it would be just special if acquiring that waste of space was the reason the Sox were hit with a penalty. Again, all signs point to being under this year, but I do wonder if that influenced any FA offers.

Will Leitch at MLB predicts the Sox will win 68 games in 2023.

He's right that they're the favorites for last place in the division, and that anyone other than them are plausible division champions. I think 68 is too low.

So if two of Sale/Kluber/Paxton are not available at any point in time, then the rotation will be Non-Injured SKP / Pivetta / Whitlock / Bello / Crawford with either Winckowski or Houck being the next man in. That's not great, but that means you'd need to have five injured starters simultaneously before you need to access the averageness of the Ort Cloud. (This is me saying I think Crawford and Winckowski are better than Ort, which the projections don't necessarily suggest.) And if they are available the rotation is Sale / Paxton / Kluber / Pivetta / Whitlock with Bello the next man in, which would be a solid rotation if the first three are at their typical level of production. Like, 68 wins or worse is certainly possible if enough things go wrong, but I'm doubtful it will be that bad.

Chris Sale throws 35 pitchers and does NOT get injured. I'm not sure if he made it back to the hotel without getting hit by a car or burning himself grabbing a cup of coffee or anything, but right now, he appears to be NOT injured.

They will win more then 68 games...not many more, but maybe like 77 games

I think I've probably heard enough from Enrique Hernandez now. First, it was that he wanted assurances that the Red Sox would be better in 2023 when he signed his deal. Now all the talk of the team being comfortable with losing last year, clubhouse stuff, etc. He was on the team. He was part of the reason they weren't good and he was part of the culture. You and your new culture better win the team 90 games this year.

ETA:
Apparently ZIPS is in love with Hernandez--3.1 WAR in 465 PA.

The last place in the division thing is a bit overblown. They won 78 games last year, playing a large number of games against the AL East. 78 wins would have been 3rd place in the AL Central and AL West. They were an average team. If the finish high 70s in wins again, even if that's last in the AL East, they'll be an average team. 68 wins is absurd as a baseline prediction.

The Sox are playing fewer games against the division, that will help. The Sox have improved the bullpen which was a shitshow from day one last year, that will help. The rotation is a concern to say the least and I think there is a scenario where they bottom out but at 68 wins but it feels like a .500 team to me.

I'm shocked at all the predictions I'm seeing saying the Orioles aren't going to be good. That's surprising to me.

I'm shocked at all the predictions I'm seeing saying the Orioles aren't going to be good. That's surprising to me.

Funny, I have the opposite reaction and I think they are overrated. The link in #49 predicts the O's to win 87 games, which I think is too high.

Heh, I'm seeing them in the high 70s in most places it seems like. Guess it's just a matter of where we are looking. Let's split the difference and assume I'm right and any errors are Larry Lucchino's fault.

ZIPS projections are weird. In the ZIPS depth charts (which attempt to account for playing time), the Red Sox come in at ~48 WAR, which is third, behind the Yankees and Blue Jays. But somehow, in Dan's American ZIPS projections, the Red Sox finish last, with 79 wins. I suspect a lot of that comes down to this (from Dan's article):

"Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion — the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond)."

That's fine and good, but a strict projection would yield different results.

FWIW, FG playoff odds have them winning 80.7 games and finishing 4th in the AL East. 30.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Well, I don't think the "ZIPS depth charts" (or the FG playoff odds standings) are necessarily any more strict of a projection than his own projected standings. Somebody is making manual adjustments in order to predict playing time, correct?

It wouldn't be very useful to just average out the projected performance of teams' top 40 (or more) players and convert that to team wins.

Well, I don't think the "ZIPS depth charts" (or the FG playoff odds standings) are necessarily any more strict of a projection than his own projected standings. Somebody is making manual adjustments in order to predict playing time, correct?

good point. It just Dan's estimations vs. someone else at FG's estimations. One adjustment I bet Dan made to the FG estimations is the IP for the top pitchers. FG has:

Whitlock 42 g, 21 gs, 170 IP (Bob Stanley, is that you?)
Sale 26 gs, 133 IP
Paxton 41 g, 23 gs, 133 IP

The Whitlock one really stands out. Even if he pitches 6 ip/start (which is very high these days), that's 126 ip. He'd still need 44 ip in 21 relief appearances in the remaining third of the season. Oh and he'd have to stay healthy the whole time. On the other hand, Bello's 29 g, 19 gs, 109 ip seems a trifle low, give that he put up 31 g, 28 gs, 153 ip last year.

We should have a prediction contest for Sale and Paxton (or combined) innings totals for 2023.

200 IP combined

111 combined

Let's split the difference and assume I'm right and any errors are Larry Lucchino's fault.

You're in a finger pointing mood today.

The bullpen will stink this year if the starters are as bad as they were last year.

Sale Paxton......175 innings

162.1 combined, but 95% of that will be one guy.

Andrus signed for 1 yr @ $3M. Why the #### weren't the Sox offering more than that?

Noah Song has been out of baseball so long that the last time he pitched in organized ball James Paxton and Chris Sale were pitching in the big leagues.

(yes, fine, they have both pitched a little since then but it's funnier this way.)