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That said as you note life gets a lot tougher coming up. However, the Sox are a better team than they were a few weeks ago and they enter this "gauntlet" with a three game cushion. That's not a huge lead but it at least provides some margin of error. I don't think 15-10 is unreasonable and I'd even take 14-11 with 5-5 against the Yanks. Do that and the Sox would be 77-60 with 25 games to go. I'd be surprised if getting to 77 wins at that point doesn't have them in first place.
For all the hubbub this team has been relentlessly consistent this year;
5-5
6-4
5-5
5-5
6-4
6-4
6-4
6-4
6-4
4-6
6-4
2-0
That's the season in ten game increments. I think the solid pitching staff is a big part of that. The worst 50 game stretch this year has been 26-24 and even that puts them at 89 wins right now. I don't think it will be easy and as you say the schedule gets tough so we shouldn't get overly excited about the recent hot streak but I think the Sox are well equipped to manage this part of the schedule. They have the fourth best record in the AL against >.500 teams.
I think we often overstate SoS in discussions like these. It would surprise no one if the Yankees went 4-6 against the Mets, Tigers and Jays, because this is baseball and they're not the 2017 Dodgers. They're more likely than not to pick up a game based on schedule, but it's miles short of surely.
.500 the rest of the way: 86-76
at current pace: 91-71
post ASB pace: 91-71
continue home and road pace: 91-71
continue > or < .500 pace: 91-71
the disaster (2011 final 50): 84-78
the dream (2004 final 50): 99-63
Just messing around with all of this the thing that strikes me is the Sox just need to keep doing what they are doing. If they do that I like their chances of winning the division.
I remember this game well but not at all. It was a Saturday night, the Sox had faded from the race so I was looking forward to just kicking back with a drink and watching a meaningless baseball game on a beautiful night. Instead about 20 minutes before first pitch I heard a loud "BANG!" in my basement. One of the joints in my water main had burst and suddenly I had this insane rush of water pouring into my basement. By the time I got it cleaned up it was almost midnight and I just said #### it and went to bed.
I can't get over how good he has been. This is something else. I'm trying to enjoy it as much as I can because it won't go on forever. Once they got that 1-0 lead I thought "hey, that could be it."
Meant to put that one in the Cubs list, sorry.
Hope everyone is well.
What a crazy year it's been. This division would be over if they could hit like we thought they would.
Another win against the Rays. Excellent!
Don't look now but... we're just 6.5 games back of the Astros... A week ago we were 9.5. I don't think best record in AL is done and dusted just yet.
If we can take 2 of 3 in NY, we'd be 5 up with 45 to play. To me, that's a realistic end goal (especially with Sale starting one of the games). 1 out of 3 wouldn't be awful, and we'd leave NY 3 games up. Basically we just want to avoid the sweep...
Actually I think it was me. My father and I were watching the game in my backyard and as is my custom I would do a lap of the house after each half inning (gotta get those steps in!). Well, I forgot after the top of the sixth.
The 2006 collapse wasn't as brutal as 2011 but I think it was impressive in its diversity. That team just found different and exciting ways to lose every night.
By looking on your phone every 5 minutes? Playstation Vue? Roku? ESPN? NESN? Radio? Inquiring minds need to know these things.
Along with Mike Pagliarulo and Primate Bob Tufts, one of the three Medfordites I'm familiar with who made it to MLB. BB-Ref also counts four others.
...or 7-5 against the combo. They're at 3-1 now, so we're talking about going 4-4 in the remaining games against the Yankees. That is entirely doable.
Andrew Benintendi (23-038) plus Rafael Devers (20-247) = 43 years, 285 days. Barstool Colon is 44 years, 81 days.
- Man watching this team is so ####### much fun. All these kids.
- Man I hate this bullpen. As good as they've been there is no one other than Kimbrel I trust for ####.
- Hannibal Lecter Benintendi man...dude's heart rate doesn't get above 40 I don't think.
- Hanley Ramirez is annoying as crap. For a good hitter he has a LOT of really poor at bats in key spots. It is exasperating.
I don't know. I'm all over the place right now. That's a big big series win right there.
But yeah, there is a feeling of "Eric Gagne 2.0" to this I'll admit.
And just to prove a point, Pedro throws one a little up and in right at the umpire's face just to make sure we know who's your daddy.
4-1 against TB and NY in The Gauntlet™. They chose the right time to be the hottest team in the AL, to the extent such timing can be chosen.
It was just like a typical Red Sox / Yankees series. They took 2 of 3, but they were very close to either a sweep or losing 2 of 3. Devers came through with the fastest pitch hit for a HR since they started tracking this stuff, which might be more a product of how these things are tracked than anything else, but oh man was that awesome.
I was disappointed in the 10th inning squander... bases loaded and 1 out, but they only got one run. It was enough, but even with Kimbrel on the mound it sure didn't feel like it was enough.
2-1 against NY, 2-0 against Tampa. They need to go 3-4 in their remaining games against NY to stay in line with what I was looking for here.
Still true.
0-1 after last night's misery. They need to split the series in Cleveland to stay in line.
The Red Sox have had a good week, yet they're still in the position of having to hold serve against good teams and dominate the feathered teams. Long way to go still, but they are doing what they need to do.
Oh my...I don't think I've heard of that guy.
What a win.
4-1 so far. They need to go 3-4 in the rest against NY.
They went 2-0 against St. Louis. That leaves a manageable 4-2 vs. the O's and Jays.
0-1 so far. They need to split in Cleveland, which is possible but a tall task.
Note here that if we count the Yankees, Rays, and Indians as the good opponents, I'm looking for Boston to go 5-6 against good teams and 4-2 against the others, and 9-8 overall, in their next 17. This, after going 6-2 to start The Gauntlet™.
Going into a stretch like this we know they can't afford to fall too far behind the pace in the early stages. They have taken care of business, continuing their hot streak that started before the White Sox came to town. They have put themselves in great position already.
HOU 74-46 74-46
BOS 69-51 70-50
CLE 65-52 71-46
NYY 64-55 71-48
LAA 62-59 60-61
I don't really have a point on that, other than to note that there are two teams in there that are severely underperforming their pythag, and one team with a pythag <.500.
I misread "raps" to include the letter e. That would have been worse.
1942 1st time all major league game played under lights
1949 Dom DiMaggio's hitting streak ends at 34 vs. NYY. Joe DiMaggio makes shoestrinng catch in 8th to end it
1974: First games played in the middle of a presidential resignation speech. Bill Lee celebrates by beating the World Champion A's.
1979 Dennis Eckersley's 7th straight CG: 7-0, 63 IP, 58 H, 15 R, 13 ER, 16 BB, 41 K. 1.86 ERA
1988 Roger Clemens surrenders only walk-off HR of his career: by Joey Meyer of MIL. MIL 3, BOX 2
1994 Andre Dawson's worst day? 0-for-6 w/ 4 Ks - his only 4 K game
2005 Cubs trade Mike Remlinger & cash to BOX for minor leaguer
2008 Mich Hoffpauir, Iowa Cubs, hits 4 homers & flies out to left in the 9th.
2013 Dan Haren: 13th pitcher to beat all teams. Leiter, K. Brown, Mulholland, Schilling, W.Williams, Moyer, Unit, Zito, Vazquez, Padilla, Lowe, Burnett
2014 LAA 5, BOX 4 (19). Both score once in 14th. 6 hours & 31 minutes. Walk-off HR: Albert Pujols
Added one for you.
Spot on; if Xander recovers it's a huge addition to the offense. When his swing is under control he combines the abilities to hit to a chosen field and to decide late whether to check his swing on non-strikes or to chop an outside pitch to RF. Very handsy, right? The HBP almost six weeks ago was a big deal, and his production has suffered significantly. Now, though, it does look like (and here's hoping) Bogaerts may be healthy for the stretch run.
Boston seems to think the future's in featuring a bunch of neo-OG #2 hitters: they don't try to pull the ball for power (though they can, at least often enough to satisfy game-theory-optimal requirements), but to stay in the strike zone and make contact. Pedroia, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Holt, and to a certain extent, Benintendi, Betts, and maybe Devers take this approach, although the latter three are blessed with extra power.
Not a terribly exciting day in Red Sox history. Watch out prominent opposing players facing the Red Sox on Aug. 20 -- you could be the next to be injured.
A LOOGY more reliable than Abad & Scott would be a nice bullpen add.
That's a big 10 days right there. Six games against the Yankees with us having the Indians and Cardinals in the middle while they have the Mets and they pick up half a game in that stretch is big. That was a big opportunity for them.
Long way to go but is David Price an option there? Regular season of course not but let's say he doesn't come back until mid-September and only makes a couple of iffy starts. Would Sale-Pomeranz-Porcello-Edgar be an unreasonable playoff rotation with Price available as a lefty reliever maybe in the mold of Miller last year? I doubt they'd go that route but I actually was thinking of this the other night. One of the five has to go to the bullpen and Price might make the most sense.
Good to see Reed settling down, his outs Friday night were a huge turning point for his time here
Anyway, hope all are well.
Ironically enough and based on the world's tiniest sample size of each starter's last start your weak link is...Chris Sale!
And it's not predictive, but I can't help but noting that what little postseason success he's had was in that role in aught-eight.
2 at .513: 2-0
3 at .536: 2-1
1 vs. .541: 0-1
2 vs. .500: 2-0
3 vs. .536: 2-1
---------------
subtotal
11 vs. .526: 8-3
===============
4 at .541
3 vs. .500
3 at .469
4 at .536
---------------
14 at .515: ???
Based on the 15-10 mark I'd set for them at the start, they'd need to go just 7-7 in this next stretch to get there. How are y'all feeling about that?
To me it's this: Cleveland could be a painful start to this stretch. The rest of it I'm not worried about much. I mean, sure, it could all go sideways damn fast. I'm never comfortable with them in Toronto, and NY has played them pretty closely even when Boston comes out on top. But the way they're playing right now I don't feel too worried about 7-7, but in a few days I might feel miserable about it.
I'd also guess Workman starts getting Barnes' workload going forward.
Last night's game was frustrating as all hell.
This bullpen man...I don't care what they do I just don't trust them. Kimbrel is the only reliable guy out there and maybe Reed but I'm not there yet. Beyond those two guys there isn't anyone I look at and think "OK, we got this." The frustrating thing about last night is that with Fister for us tonight and Kluber tomorrow for them we could be looking to Sale to dodge a sweep. This thing could be 2 1/2 before the we get home. I suspect the Tigers will take one off the Yankees and I wouldn't be shocked if we won one of the next two just because baseball.
All that said I'm still confident we are winning the division though I don't expect it to be a breeze. We've been great at avoiding losing streaks and I see no reason that is going to change now. If that continues to be the case we are fine.
In another 10 days they get whoever they want from the minors up to help, at a minimum to buy some rest for the guys they have now. Carson Smith and Ben Taylor are rehabbing in Pawtucket. Not that any of these guys down there are The Solution. But even to prevent the guys they have from getting overextended, that would be nice. The trouble is that it's 10 days away, and people need that break now.
A great win in Cleveland...who had Fister throwing a 1 hitter AND the offense pummelling Carrasco? Baseball is a funny game sometimes.
I was pretty stoked to see them pad the lead. At 3-1 and the pen looming I was thinking here comes another meltdown....
I think he was able to get his hand over the tag and touch the plate before Gomes could sweep back and touch Bradley's arm. It was confirmed he was safe, and not just called safe due to catcher blocking the plate. Really hope he doesn't go all Bogaerts-with-a-hand-injury cant hit for #### the rest of the way.
Er, I assume there's more than that, but if so I missed it. Sorry.
3 at .536: 2-1
1 vs. .541: 0-1
2 vs. .500: 2-0
3 vs. .536: 2-1
4 at .541: 2-2
---------------
subtotal
15 vs. .530: 10-5
===============
3 vs. .500
3 at .469
4 at .536
---------------
10 at .505: ???
I don't know about you, but I'm feeling great about them going at least 5-5 in that stretch.
I am worried about Sale. He's looked unspectacular across his last few outings. The rest of the team is moving along like a win assembly line right now, so I hope he's not trying to play through an injury or something.
I don't think you need to worry. One bad inning against the Yankees and one genuinely horrible start. His two starts before that; 7 IP 1 run versus the Yanks and 8 shutout innings versus Tampa. In fact going back to June 15 8 of his last 13 starts are 1 run or less. I think the Indians are for whatever reason a bad matchup for him (per WEEI 5 of his 12 career games of 6 or more runs allowed are against the Tribe).
Back to The GauntletΩ for a moment. They've managed well so far. After the Yankee series they have 8 series left; 7 against sub-.500 teams and a four game series against a Houston team that is going to be looking to rest and set up pitching more than anything else. They've put themselves in position to get this done.
2-3 so far, and not feeling as good.
Sale's looking great, and the rest of the team didn't look so hot last weekend.
3-2 in their next five. Likeliest path there would be a win in Toronto today and a split in the Bronx. So after talking about a 25-game stretch where they needed to set themselves up for a good stretch run it comes down mostly to a 4-game set against the second-place team on their turf. This weekend is The Gauntlet⚠.
Tonight will be interesting. I don't know how the bullpen gets managed. Presumably no Kimbrel or Reed, this might be Workman and Scott to set up and Kelly to close tonight.
Not a complete game but a nice bounce back against a team that he has had issues with.
...kind of like saying "what I want to see is Boston doing a little better against these teams in this stretch than they’ve played to date this season." That's what The GauntletⓊ is all about.
13-8 in this stretch. Let's not lose the next series.
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