User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.6076 seconds
58 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Sox Therapy > Discussion
| ||||||||
Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Thursday, March 10, 2022The Lockout Files - RosteringWith the players and owners finally in some sort of agreement on a new CBA (162 game season, 12 team playoff) the Hot Stove League is about to become a spectacular sprint. With that in mind I thought it would be useful to step back and take a quick look at where the hell the Red Sox stand roster wise as of today. 1B - Bobby Dalbec IF - Jonathan Arauz OK so the lineup is mostly set. I think we can all agree one more bat either as a left fielder or as a DH (with JDM sliding to left) is necessary. The Sox have some flexibility with Hernandez’ ability to play second base but he looked SO good in center last year I’d rather keep him there. It is possible that JBJ is going to get set as the starter in the outfield which would push Duran or Arroyo to bench duty. Jose says: Sign Schwarber, sign a utility infielder better than Jonathan Arauz SP - Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha BULLPEN - Matt Barnes, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Darwinzon Hernandez, Ryan Brasier, Hirokazu Sawamura, Josh Taylor, Austin Davis So this is not the most inspiring Boston Red Sox pitching staff I’ve seen in my lifetime but y’know what? I don’t hate it either. Assuming some decline from Eovaldi that will probably be compensated for by Sale who should be expected to be good, not great. Houck and/or Whitlock is still an option for the rotation and potentially James Paxton will have a role late in the season similar to Sale last year. Frankly the way the game is played today Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen may actually be for the best. Let them throw a couple innings every few days rather than being a once or twice through the order starter. Jose says: Don’t overthink this. If you can add an arm you do it. Remember, you can never ever under any circumstances have “too much pitching.” OK, now let’s go!!! And someone find out about Spring Training. I’m in Florida until Friday. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful
Posted: March 10, 2022 at 03:43 PM | 73 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News: |
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsUnacceptable
(46 - 8:48am, May 16) Last: Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer (Just About) 48 Hours to Go (112 - 8:18am, May 14) Last: Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Lining Up The Minors (14 - 3:48pm, May 13) Last: Darren Well At Least April Is Over (76 - 7:05pm, May 08) Last: Dillon Gee Escape Plan The First Big Test (67 - 8:30am, May 02) Last: Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Over and Under (14 - 2:06pm, Apr 26) Last: Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Predictions of Ridiculousness (3 - 1:18pm, Apr 26) Last: pikepredator A Lovely Day and a Lousy Game (15 - 3:45pm, Apr 18) Last: Nasty Nate Some Thoughts on the First Series (13 - 9:24pm, Apr 14) Last: Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Things Have Happened (24 - 3:07pm, Mar 31) Last: Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful The Lockout Files - Rostering (73 - 5:46pm, Mar 24) Last: Nasty Nate Report From The Fort (4 - 5:14pm, Mar 20) Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns The Lockout Files - ALDS MVPs (4 - 2:26pm, Mar 08) Last: Rough Carrigan The Lockout Files - Spring Training (9 - 8:20pm, Feb 25) Last: Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful The Lockout Files - What Could've Been (31 - 10:00am, Feb 09) Last: Darren |
|||||||
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| Page rendered in 0.6076 seconds |
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. villageidiom Posted: March 10, 2022 at 08:10 PM (#6067310)Spring training voluntary reporting starts tomorrow. Mandatory reporting is Sunday. Games start March 18. Sorry.
Well considering it's going to be throwing nearly 50% of the innings, you'd better hope it's solid. I'd try to grab another SP as the back end of that rotation is uninspiring and you need a guy who will hopefully throw 160+ innings.
The left side of the infield could use an upgrade
JBJ can't hit. He doesn't seem to have the good streaky bits any more and of course he is a year older, a little slower and the otherworldly fielding is probably long gone.
In spite of all that I am really looking forward to the Bain Capital Bianchi's Pizza Red Sox getting in the full 162(though I would not have been fussed if they cut it down to 154)
In the case of the Red Sox, it is altogether possible that the 4th-place team in the AL East could win enough games to be the final wild card team. (In fact, in 2021, the Blue Jays would have been the 6th team in the AL playoffs.)
Because the home-field advantage is less pronounced in baseball than in the NFL or NBA, the advantage to seeding in an ever-expanding playoff system is just not that big a deal. Soit may well be that the goal is not so much to win the most games...it is to win enough games. How that might impact roster building...we shall see.
And, FWIW, I would try to keep Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen, and tell them they are generally going to pitch 2-3 times a week, 2-3 innings per appearance. That is the future of building pitching staffs, and the Red Sox are pretty lucky: They have sort of stumbled into two prototypical examples for this type of role.
Did you mean the "other" left? (Or was it the view from the bleachers?) I see an upgrade from Arroyo/Dalbec as a bigger need than from Bogaerts/Devers.
I can sort of squint and see where JBJ allows for Hernandez to maybe play X games at 2B while not having a defensive drop-off in CF... But I'm struggling to think of how he really slots in, as given his streakiness, it's possible in a weird way that 80 games of JBJ would be way worse than 130 games (because he'll never have a couple 3-week hot stretches if he's only playing every other day).
I suspect deeper, versatile staffs will be key in April/May with starters taking a while to get up to speed.
I'm happy to be wrong about losing the whole season, but this whole lockout thing seemed exceedingly weird. I canceled the auto-renewal on the MLB.tv and will likely have a long think on it before signing on again. Of course, I'll do that and the Sox will be like 45-15 after 2 months and I'll come crawling back...
I'd much rather see them go for Schwarber with the intent on moving him to DH next year (or Dalbec if he can continue to show improvement).
And the Yankees signed Rizzo, so I can't imagine they are also going after Freeman.
Like I said to a friend the other day, I expect someone who isn’t on the roster tomorrow for the first spring game will be in the opening day starting lineup.
Sale with rib fracture, may not pitch until after May 1st.
And on the same day the Royals sign Greinke to 1/$13. I would not have minded that. He still throws quite a bit of innings and the pure entertainment value alone is nearly worth the money.
Kris Bryant on a seven-year, $182MM
Wonder if Coors will help or hurt his HoF case. Walker and Helton may be good signs, IF KB can still outhit the environment.
There are still some excellent players out there, but they are signing quickly. Hopefully we'll see another impact signing or two soon.
Should be pretty evident in this next year or two - Bryant is only at 29 WAR, unless he stays good for a long time he's got to have a monster season or two to get him on track.
Duran . . . Dalbec . . . Downs . . . killer D's? Doesn't have the same wring. D-squad? That's the wrong direction . . .
D-stroyers? Now we're getting somewhere . . .
50+ here in VT. Baseball is beginning. I'm gonna let that fill my heart and mind.
If the Sox role out this line up, things have either gone incredibly well and guys are flourishing or incredibly bad and there was a major sell off.
Youk is proving enjoyable in the "booth" (looks like they're in the underground bunker for Spring Training, at least).
Also, NESN's advertising that at least some games are going to be in 4K HDR, which I'm guessing is more than my Comcast cable box handles. Anyone know if their Roku app supports it?
I hoping they'll swing a trade with the A's for some pitching as it looks as if the line-up is set.
Well, Travis Shaw is back on a ml deal. Correa and Story to follow, no doubt.
1. Sign an OF bat (specifically Schwarber, but I'll generalize).
2. Get a better utility infielder than Arauz.
3. Get more pitching.
In this offseason they've done the following:
1. No OF bat, unless we want to consider JBJ a bat. (We've never done so before, so why start now?) That aside, they just signed Trevor Story for 2B and possibly future SS, substantially upgrading the lineup and locking Hernandez into the outfield. This doesn't meet your specific requirement, but it is a lineup upgrade.
2. They have also substantially upgraded the utility infielder role, by locking into Christian Arroyo. Arroyo can handle 2B/3B, and if Bogaerts is out Story would slide to SS and Arroyo would fill in at 2B. Any of these are better than Arauz.
3. Jake Diekman and Matt Strahm might not seem like what you were thinking of when you asked for more pitching. But they are reasonably capable relievers. Having said that, they can never truly accomplish a goal of "you can never have enough pitching", so it's hard to proclaim mission accomplished or whatever here.
The main issue for Boston is that while these are improvements to the roster from a couple weeks ago, several other teams have improved more.
As for this signing, I'm really happy about it. First and foremost, it's something happening, which is fun to read about and talk about! But digging slightly deeper than that, Story seems like a really good fit for Bloom's plans for the Sox. He presumably will improve their infield defense and adds to their flexibility. He slots in as the starter at 2B, and since he can cover short when Xander's out, this allows Arroyo to back up 2B, 3B, and SS (when he's healthy). He also provides insurance in case they are unable to sign Xander to an extension. (I know others think this means that Xander's gone, but I am optimistic that they want to keep him around. And given the deals that Story and Baez got, there's a chance Xander won't be expecting $300 million.)
The contract structure itself is also pretty great from the team's perspective. I am not sure how to calculate this, exactly, but I think the team option sort of cancels out the player option in terms of value.
And now that they're over the first tax threshold and will have to give up a pick, I'm hoping this means that Conforto is next.
This. It's definitely not the "big" signing I considered, but when you really look at it, it does make a ton of sense. He's a good fielder, can easily cover 2B and SS, and does give you that longer term option if they can't work out anything with Xander.
Obviously the Red Sox analytics believe his bat is going to work well in Fenway and at this stage, I've just got to with their analysis as I'm pretty confident Fenway sports and Bloom know a little more about this then some random, old dudes on a baseball nerd site.
- Arroyo is a value (and inexpensive) player to have who can play multiple infield positions - the bench got a lot better today.
- It improves the team's position after the 2022 season as it relates to Bogaerts' free agency.
- It also opens the door a little wider to scenarios where Xander sticks around after 2022, but moves off of SS to 3B or 2B. This allows the team to think about where Devers fits in the long-term plan in a more flexible way. I love Devers, and by all accounts, he has worked hard to improve his defense, but he is not somebody I think you want at 3B defensively, long-term.
- This also provides flexibility in assessing the minor-league system's deepest prospects pool - middle infield. Besides Casas, three of the team's four next-best prospects are 2B or SS (or in Downs' case, either). It is not crazy that if Nick Yorke has a 2022 as exciting as his 2021 was, he could be ready to start at 2B by late 2023. Mayer is further down the line, but one of the most promising players in the entire minor leagues. Story allows the team to more easily let the minor-league talent rise to the top, and decide in due time who they need to keep, and who they can trade for major league talent (probably a star outfielder, at the right time).
- Their best defense has Kike in CF, and Story at 2B or SS. Anything that keeps Hernandez out of the infield, and out in CF, is worth some defensive runs saved.
I'm a little nervous about Story's bat, but the power, speed, and defense will all be above-average for a second baseman, and his strikeout rate was down a lot in 2021...and I trust Bloom.
The overall outfield appears to be a potential #### show at the plate. Verdugo appears to be the best bat, by a fair bit, and he's got an .802 OPS (111 OPS+) over the last three years. Hernandez certainly can work in CF as his defense makes up for an average at best bat, JBJ we know *can* hit...it's the *when* that's an issue, and Duran is...fast?
The potential is there for Verdugo and Hernandez, JBJ could be a valuable 4th OF, but unless he takes a big step forward Duran is not the answer in LF.
And what happens when Verdugo gets his little injury for the season and misses a few games? If that coincides with Sale and/or Eovaldi missing starts then the OF of Duran/Hernandez/JBJ + the #5/#6 guys in the rotation is a recipe for a losing streak.
Not to throw too much water on the party, the IF looks great, and there is some excitement in the minors again, I just am a bit worried the high from last year is going to come crashing down quickly.
4. Jarren Duran
9. Gilberto Jimenez
15. Miguel Bleis
Jimenez and Blais are years from potentially contributing, and far, far from sure things to ever make it to the majors. There are many more infield prospects, and perhaps one or more of them will be moved to the OF if their bat can support it. This makes keeping Kike out in CF even more crucial.
As for Duran, of course there is uncertainty. But we all want them to develop and play young players, and this is part of the process: the terrible few hundred PA's, the timeline uncertainty, the risk of a bust, etc. At the moment he still counts as depth and an asset, and the cold heartless projections systems have him at .250/.310/.405ish, which is not a nightmare.
If they need a spare outfielder during the season or even in the next 2 weeks, they grow on trees basically.
They do? With a lot breaking right for the Sox last year as a team they put up .698/.678/.803 OPS from LF/CF/RF. Ronfroe's 544 PA in RF at .824 is gone. Schwarber's 65 PA in LF at .851 is gone. Those two have been replaced JBJ who had a .497 OPS last year. Yes, Martinez *can* play LF, but he's pretty statuesque. After him is Cordero and then Rob Refsnyder, who has been below replacement value every year except for his 1st.
Casas-1B
Dalbec-DH
Martinez-LF
Is not unreasonable to expect (and move that around with Dalbec at third and Devers at DH or whatever you prefer). But to start the year they need one of Bradley or Duran to play well. That's not an unreasonable bet but it's not great either.
I know Bloom had specifically mentioned adding a right-handed bat before he got Story, but is this team now a little too right-handed?
Best to Worst (basically)
SS Xander R
3B Devers L
DH Martinez R
2B Story R
OF Hernandez R
OF Verdugo L
1B Dalbec R
OF Bradley/Duran L
C Vazquez R
Only 1 lefthanded hitter among our best 4-5 hitters. A good lefty bat in the OF would be great.
I think Verdugo is very clearly a better hitter than Hernandez, doesn't really change your overall point, but I think the team is hoping for more out of him, whereas if they get a 107 OPS+ out of Hernandez again they've got to be pretty happy.
Do opposing managers really need to worry about their relief pitchers handedness when pitching to Duran or Vazquez? Probably a bit more thought is put in when it comes time to try and get through Devers and Martinez.
Also, lineup handedness is a factor when facing starting pitchers too.
But I was very surprised at the trade Bloom made. It seems like a "I'll take a year of your bad contract for two pretty good prospects" kind of deal, sort of like the Ottavino trade last off-season.
I assumed at the time that this was part of a bigger plan, but with only a few weeks until the season begins, I increasingly think that this...sort of is the plan. There is no other major shoe to drop. If so, that seems like a pretty "meh" outfield. Am I missing something? Do you think Bloom had a plan, but something happened (a failed signing or trade, etc.) that blew up the plan? Maybe the extended lockout helped blow up a plan? Does he have a hunch that Bradley will rebound some as a hitter? Duran is readier than it seems? What do people here think?
That said the JBJ/Renfroe deal was a bit "off" to me. I think it's pretty certain that the focus was augmenting the system, not getting JBJ back. But still that leaves a hole in the outfield. However I suspect Bloom is thinking that between JBJ and Duran one of them should do the job. Much was made of hte defense last year and simply swapping JBJ and Renfroe should be an improvement.
I do kind of wonder if the lockout blew up the plan a little bit. I kind of think they felt like they had the inside track on Schwarber but when the lockout lingered AND the universal DH happened I think that blew up on him a bit.
I too remain a little confused about the Renfroe trade. I would have thought we'd be getting another OF after that deal. Seems that Bloom must have confidence in Bradley to bounce back and/or really likes the two prospects.
I believe the Renfroe trade was as SBPT and Jose said: selling high and getting prospects. What I also believe is that Bloom believes (to a degree) in Duran.
Which makes sense, but taking back Bradley in that deal seems a bit much given that these aren't such hot prospects. I'm sure there's plenty we don't know from the outside, of course.
For example, they clearly like Story, and like that his defense, speed, and power is good enough to play at 2B or SS for the next 4-6 years, at a price point that will probably look pretty reasonable in the out years...because he is part of the "rebuilt" plan. If Xander stays in town after 2022, Story is the 2B, and they groom Downs to be the backup middle infielder, and they move Yorke to the outfield if he keeps hitting in 2022. If Xander leaves, Story goes to SS, and if Yorke keeps progressing, they keep 2Bwarm until Yorke is ready in late 2023/Spring Training 2024.
They clearly don't want to spend a lot of money at 1B, because they: 1) Like Dalbec enough that they want him to get the ABs needs to see if his second-half progress was real; and 2) Casas is going to be here soon, solving that problem at very low dollars.
In the OF, I suspect a lot of the freed up money identified in #67 will be going to get at least one premium OF next off-season. Just the combined 2022 salaries of JBJ and Kike go a long way towards paying one premium outfielder in 2023, for example.
The rotation is the hardest one to project. They're on the hook for at least three more years with Sale, who will probably be very good...when healthy. Eovaldi's contract is up after 2022. The rest of them, though? Wacha, Paxton, Pivetta, Hill...there's no commitment after 2022. It's pretty crazy how little money is locked into starting pitching beyond 2022 - or really almost anybody not named Sale or Story.
SS - Story
3B - Bogaerts
1B and/or DH - Devers
Nahhh, that's too crazy.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main