The sweep by the Jays has already been averted. Yet another Verdugo walkoff.

Fun with small samples:

--Yoshida keeps getting on base twice a game and his WAR keeps going down. He's down to 0.2 on FG, due to his -10.9 UZR/150 and a staggering -2.1 on the basepaths. Over at BRef, he jumped to 0.4, with a -1 in baserunning and -24 rdrs/yr. Does he look this bad on the bases and in the field to anyone?

--In contrast, Wong is a defensive dynamo. His 0.8 WAR on reference is due largely to his +46 rdrs/yr. FG isn't quite as rosy but he's good there too.

Continued.

--Casas's 17.0 BB% is 5th in the Majors, but thanks to his .128 BA he's got only a .281 OBP. If he were even hitting a paltry .200, his line would be .200/.340/.354. I don't know what is going on with him--it's hard to watch.

--Coming into this season, Enrique Hernandez had made 6 errors in 618 innings at SS, with a UZR/150 of 12.3. This year, he's committed 8 errors in 146 innings (~16 games), with a UZR/150 of -19.8. He's on pace for 80 errors, a Hobsonian pace.

--Not to be outdone, Enmanuel Valdez has made 3 errors in 57 innings at 2B, with a -54 uzr/150. As a result, he's below replacement level despite his .900+ ops.

--Alex Verdugo is hitting .311/.373/.508. Has he turned a corner? Has his new focus on being more athletic and making contact paid off? Should the Red Sox be trying to lock him up ASAP? Possibly, but the jury is very much still out. The fact is, he's had months like this fairly often over the past two years:
*August 2022: .330/.393/.491
*June 2022: .337/.400/.505
*August 2021: .341/.410/.489
*Mar/Apr 2021: .300/.363/.500
As exciting as it is to watch him be a clutch god and all, we should probably hold back our enthusiasm for another couple months.

To piggyback off of Darren in #3:

- I really think Valdez could be a weapon as the primary DH in a platoon. He's inexpensive, and under team control for a quite a while. The scouting reports on his defense were stunningly poor; maybe he can improve enough that you can stick at 2B or LF or something with more practice, but as an everyday infielder, it seems unwise.

- I have been very skeptical of Verdugo since the end of 2021 (2020 Verdugo was probably the most exciting part of a terrible season), and I am still reluctant to say he's jumped up a level. As Darren notes, he's had months like this before. He's also been a barely-above average hitter the last two years, and a barely-below average fielder, with below-average speed. That's not a logical candidate for the kind of contract extension a lot of fans are proposing out there (5/$80m! Do it today!). He has another year under contract before hitting the market after 2024. If he does this all year, then you make a legit offer. After all, the organization doesn't really have in-house candidates to start in the OF in the next few years beyond (maybe) Ceddanne Rafaela in AA. He's got the glove, but has a very high-BABIP .300 average with no walks who is far from a sure thing. In low-A, we've got Bleis and Roman Anthony, but they are a long, long ways away. With Verdugo, I just don't want Boston to commit a lot of years and a lot of money to an outfielder who is, basically, an average player with no speed entering his 30s. The White Sox gave Benintendi 4/$68m, based off of his 1 1/2 years in Kansas City, and I suspect that will be an undesirable contract pretty quickly. To me, teams don't get in trouble by paying stars a lot of money; they get in trouble by paying average players (who are pretty replacable) like they are scarce.

I'm only half-joking when I say that the Red Sox should talk to the hitting coach for Team Mexico and see what they did with Verdugo & Duran.

Yeah, and have him do it for Casas.

None of these guys is a star at the moment and Casas is the only one likely to reach such status

Please tell me you mean "has the potential", rather than "likely". Please.

OK, no more negativity for today.

I'm sold on Yoshida. He's good. Yay!

I am happy with Duran's hitting since being called up. He's been a pleasant surprise.

Verdugo has been very good. I hope he can continue to be very good.

Wong has been very good. I hope he proves me wrong...that's right, I hope Wong proves me wrong! He surprised me with that HR he hit yesterday. Boom! Deep!

Sale is looking good. Kluber looked half decent last night.

They're not a terribly frustrating team to watch these days. Even though they blew a big lead against Cleveland the other day, they won the game, which made it palatable.

While I was out of town apparently I missed the transaction in which Connor Wong completed his purchase of the Toronto Blue Jays. Because at this moment he appears to own them.

Well at this stage, at least they can score some runs. The light hitting lefties(Yoshida, Verdugo and Duran) are really looking good in this small sample size, but hey, it's better then looking like cr*p in a small sample size.

As for the pitching...well let's just say the offense is averaging 5.7 RPG.

I'm especially enjoying the lofty position above the cellar dwelling NY...

They continue to surprise! We knew Houck wouldn't go his entire career without a three-run inning . . . great that the offense could pick him up.

11 come from behind wins makes for exciting baseball but I'd rather they weren't trailing in 3/4 of their games.

Time will tell if Bloom is getting lucky for now, or if he actually was playing 4-D chess all along.

I continue to enjoy this (potentially) .500 team.

--In contrast, Wong is a defensive dynamo. His 0.8 WAR on reference is due largely to his +46 rdrs/yr. FG isn't quite as rosy but he's good there too.

Feels like this needs a slight amendment.

--In conclusion, Wong is a defensive and offensive dynamo. His 1.3 WAR on reference is due his being great at everything in the world. FG isn't quite as rosy but he's still a big superstar there too.

I didn't think Wong's defense would be a strength, but dang, he sure can throw 'em out. Baserunners are 15-15 in SB against McGuire and 2-6 against Wong.

Maybe he'll hit like expected and turn into a valuable player?

This one does too.

I didn't think Wong's defense would be a strength, but dang, he sure can throw 'em out. Baserunners are 20-21 in SB against McGuire and 8-14 against Wong.

Since he is hitting way better than expected, he has cleared turned into the most valuable player ever.

This team is 17-14. Last year's team was 11-20 through 31 games. Of course, they then went 31-11 to get to 42-31. So obviously, this team will do even better. They'll go 34-8 to get to 45-28, pulling them within 10 games of the Rays.

A lot of talk about Houck's splits between 2nd/3rd time through the order and between innings 1-3 and 4-6. They make a somewhat compelling case for him to be used as a reliever, but it seems like we have a lot of pitchers with similar profiles. I wonder if he's just the most likely to be able to figure it out and get them through 5? I'd consider Winckowski for the rotation but it's hard to take him out of this role where he's doing so well.

Keep rolling Houck as a starter. It's very easy to push him back to the bullpen next spring if necessary but see if he can figure it out because if he can that's hugely valuable. The difference between Houck and Winckowski is that I think Houck has top level stuff already so an adequate third pitch turns him into a weapon as a starter. I don't think Winckowski has that ceiling, I think he is where he belongs.

Time will tell if Bloom is getting lucky for now, or if he actually was playing 4-D chess all along.

Boston is around the winning percentage they were projected to have this season, so it would need to be some extraordinary good luck offset by some extraordinary bad luck for that to have happened... Or, y'know, the team being who they are.

In terms of the team being interesting... I think it's a fair question whether their development efforts were fruitful with Duran, Wong, Casas, Bello, and several others. Only time will tell on that. But they certainly are compelling. The kids aside, I'll assume for now that it's luck that Verdugo has turned into a defensively-capable David Ortiz for the last month.

And I'll side with Jose regarding Houck. Another aspect is that the 2023 bullpen can better withstand the frequent need to pick up Houck than could the 2022 bullpen.

David Laurila has a nice interview with Alex Verdugo up on FG.


He talks a bit about how he struggles when he tries to hit for power, and that he's determined this year not to fall into that trap. That would be nice.

Good article on Verdugo. I feel like this is applicable to so many aspects of life:

"It goes in waves. You start having success — you started going on a little hot streak — and you’re like, ‘All right. I’m feeling good. Now I’m going to lift some home runs and do some damage.’ Suddenly, you find yourself in a slump. You’re struggling again."


Way back in Little League I was one of the few kids big enough to hit home runs over the fence. Every single one I hit surprised me because they all came when I wasn't swinging HARD. I can still remember how they felt. Later in life it made sense, but at 12 I couldn't figure that out. My dad would be all "just make contact" (he knew what was going on) but c'mon, screw that, I wanted to hit home runs. But I could only hit them "by accident", so to speak.

I'm finding this team very easy to watch. They seem like they have good chemistry, there are some characters, the emergence of this youth movement is fun, they have been resilient and the blend of veterans and youth seems balanced.

Watching guys like Duran, Wong and Winckowski show early success it's easy to forget in the long off season that individual success at the major league level is uneven and has many paths...you can't really gameplay a persons ability to meet and overcome adversity, or not. Maybe that's secret of the Tampa Bay philosophy, throw enough prospects at the wall and a enough of them end up sticking.

Not including today's games, Boston's WAA by position according to BB-Ref:

CF: +1.4 (#1 in AL)
RF: +1.0 (#1)
C : +1.0 (#1)
RP: +0.9 (#4)
3B: +0.4 (#5)
LF: +0.1 (#5)
DH: +0.0 (#5)
SS: -0.2 (#12)
2B: -0.4 (#7)
1B: -0.9 (#14)
SP: -1.6 (#14)

It's amazing how great the team chemistry is. I've really started to notice its positive effects now that the team is winning.

Scary moment in Philadelphia last night, but it appears the fan who fell into the bullpen was conscious and responsive when leaving the stadium last night to go to Jefferson hospital.

As for the Celtics, that was some serious chemistry! Extra passes galore...

Scary moment in Philadelphia last night, but it appears the fan who fell into the bullpen was conscious and responsive when leaving the stadium last night to go to Jefferson hospital.

It was weird. A couple of players looked like they saw someone whose head was turned 180 degrees from normal, and then we saw her laying on the stretcher with her head up, looking comfortable.

Ok. It's time for me to own up to my mistake. The Red Sox are a pretty good team. I hope that Chaim Bloom gets credit for what he's put together. With no SS or C to have any confidence in, with iffy pitching, they've proven they're much better than I thought. I don't care if they finish .500 or worse, that won't vindicate my initial impression of them.

Jeebus, wtf was I drinking last night?


Nothing! I think they're a good team. Their offense no longer surprises me.

Duvall's injury gave Duran a chance to show that he can hit. Now, his defense isn't as big of a liability as I thought.

Wong hits the ball hard. He's no Jeff Mathis.

Kiké is ok at short.

They are alone in 3rd place in the AL East. They have the 4th best record in MLB. It is astounding that they need the latter to have the former.

I mean, it's pretty astounding either of those are true. There's probably a "have we misjudged them" thread in the future, and if we wait long enough the answer could be "no". They are still within a reasonable variation from mediocrity, what with this still being early in the season.

But, man, have they been fun to watch.

After going 3-6 with a homer yesterday, Mayer is 4-4 with a homer and two doubles today. His average is up to .337/.414/.582.

Two hits and a walk today has pushed Yorke up to .298/.414/.512.

That's very encouraging after his down season list year.

Well, last year on May 8th they were 10-19 (0.345), had May 9th off and from May 10th through June 26 went 32-12 a smoking 0.727 win rate and had a record of 42-31. After that the wheels came off the bus and for the rest of the season went 36-53 (0.404) and won their last 3 and 6 of their last 9 to make things look better than they were.

So far this year, they have displayed good consistency with no real extended poor sections of play. I think their starting pitching is trending in the right direction and have a lot of experienced guys coming off the IL, some of whom will be impactful. The biggest question will be how some of these young/new guys respond when they come back down to earth, will they adjust or not? That's probably the key between a great season and something less.

Good point about the young guys, but I'm not quite as sold on the pitching as you are. To me that's the key to the rest of the season. We need Sale to be very good to great and some others to step up, or we need to acquire a #1-2 starter.

[Coke to 27]

Arguably the best news about the team going forward is that they are above .500 despite getting very little out of 1B, 2B, SS, and the starting pitchers. Even as the outfielders collectively, and inevitably, recede, it suggests there is room for other positions to take up some of the drop.

At some point, Casas is going to hit. Even if he hits only .230 for the season, it would mean (based on some quick math) that he'd have to hit about .245 the rest of the season to reach .230. Combined with even a fraction of his current walk rate, that'd be a rookie 1B going .245/.370 - which is a valuable player.

Here's a funny stat, on a very small sample size: There have been six PAs this year where Casas has faced a 3-1 count. Five of the six times, he took the pitch. All five times, the pitch was called a ball, and he walked. The one time he swung, he made contact but was out (not sure what the out looked like). My instinct was that Casas might be letting too many "hitter's count" pitches go as strikes, but I'm not sure the early data confirms that. I mean, that 3-1 count data gives a bizarre slash line of .000/.833/.000. I guess that's good?

In 22 PAs which reach 3-2, Casas is...1-for-13 with 9 walks and 11 strikeouts, for a slash line of .077/.455/.077.
His BABIP is awful (.186); he also doesn't put the ball in play that much, because of all the walks and strikeouts. He is going to be a fascinating player to watch develop the next few years.

My biggest praise of the team this far is that I do not get the sense Bloom is willing to sacrifice opportunities for younger (or undefined) in the name of trying to win a few extra games this year. We need to let Casas play all year, and see what we've got. I'd rather see Valdez playing 2B (or DH) than putting a stopgap veteran there. Let's see if Duran's progress is sustainable. Bello and Houck? Keep them in the rotation, and let them develop. I'm skeptical that Wong is as good as he's looked lately, but I hope he is! Let's find out! And so forth.

Arguably the best news about the team going forward is that they are above .500 despite getting very little out of 1B, 2B, SS, and the starting pitchers.

They have also not yet played either of the A's or Royals, nor will they play either of them until July.

[Coke to 27]

No Cokes for factual information.

Those are really interesting and just plain bizarre numbers for Casas. Another one: as bad as his offense has been, his defense is right there with it. Rdrs has him at -4 and OAA at -3.

My biggest praise of the team this far is that I do not get the sense Bloom is willing to sacrifice opportunities for younger (or undefined) in the name of trying to win a few extra games this year. We need to let Casas play all year, and see what we've got.

I agree so far but if the team remains in the playoff hunt as Duval, Story, and Mondesi (ha!) return, and Casas is still at or below replacement level, it would make some sense to send him down for a bit. The same applies to Valdez if he doesn't continue to hit.

And why be skeptical of Wong?

Steamer .244/.293/.413
ZIPS .253/.304/.435
Actual .257/.313/.459

Whyyyyyy????? :)

On another note, there is increasing speculation that Marcelo Mayer could be at AA Portland by sometime this summer. If so, I'm definitely making the 50-minute drive to see them play. Between Mayer, Yorke, Rafaela, and Shane Drohan (if you catch his spot in the rotation), that'd be a lot of fun.

That long run of games got me accustomed to a game every day. I used last night to schedule a webinar and am excited to get back to baseball today! Beautiful weather here in VT . . . sunny but cool, perfect for some after-work yardwork + baseball on the radio. B/raves will pose another strong challenge, I hope the Sox are up to it!

Two game series are still strange to me even though they've been happening for years now.

That seems very likely and soon, IMHO. They seem to like to like to promote a bit aggressively with young players. He had 308 PA at A ball last year and now is up to 217 at A+ over the past two seasons (age 19-20), with a line of .301/.397/.515. Rafaela only got about 200 at A+ at age 21 before jumping to AA. Yorke struggled in ~400 PA at age 19-20 at A+, then moved up to AA at 21. He's also not blocked by a top SS prospect in Portland.

No Cokes for factual information.

Since t.f. when? Plus are you some kind of mind-reader and knew that I had no subjective component to my post?

Ok, fine, whatever-on the heels of #37, f. AA, MM could be in Boston by September.

That good enough for ya?

Do we think Drohan will be promoted to AAA soon? He's already 24, appears to have taken a big step forward with his stuff, and has gotten great results this year: 0.62 ERA, 30 K, 6 BB, 29 IP.

Since t.f. when?

You'll have to ask rLr. I think it's his rule.

Plus are you some kind of mind-reader and knew that I had no subjective component to my post?

I am no kind of mind reader.

Apparently it was just reported that Meidroth and Hickey are being promoted to AA. Those are pretty aggressive as well!

Hickey: 23, catcher, drafted in the 5th round of 2021 (got a $1 mil. bonus). He's hit .294 .402 .588 in A+ this year and has generally shown good power and patience in the minors. Soxprospects has him as #15 in the system and considers his defense fringy.

Meidroth: 22, 2B, drafted in round 4 last year. Another contact/eye savant, he's hitting .338/.495/.459 in A+ this year, and has a career line of .327/.466/.500 across rookie ball, A, and A+. Soxprospects recently moved him up from 30th to 22nd in the system and seems to like his fielding.

Not sure if this is part of a larger trend across baseball but, as noted above, the Red Sox seem willing to push position players up the ladder quickly. From SP top 20:

Mayer 20 A+
Bleis 19 A
Rafaela 22 AA
Yorke 21 AA (even after struggling last year)
Romero 19 A
Anthony 19 A
Paulino 20 A
Lugo 22 AA
Valdez 24 MLB
Hickey 23 AA
Jordan 20 A+
Coffey 18 A
Hamilton 25 AAA
Abreu 23 AAA


The only ones who are even remotely old for their level here are Hickey (just reached AA) and Hamilton. Meanwhile, guys like Anthony, Jordan, and Coffey, despite not being top prospects, are pretty young for their level.


Pitching is a different story:

Drohan 24 AA
Mata 24 AAA
Perales 20 A
Walter 26 AAA
Gonzalez 21 A
Rodriguez-Cruz 19 A
Murphy 24 AAA

A couple exceptions but generally quite a bit more conservative.


Edit:
Avg ages for leagues:
Batters
A 20.9
A+ 22.3
AA 24.0
AAA 26.6

Pitchers
A 21.8
A+ 23.2
AA 24.6
AAA 27.3

I thought there was a very good chance that New England sports fans would be distracted by the Bruins and Celtics engaged in long playoff runs, maybe all the way to mid-June. But - pretty shockingly - both teams could be out of the playoffs by Thursday night. I never would've believed we'd be down to only baseball by May 12th, but unless the Celtics can win a tough road game, it's over tomorrow.

That makes the promising start for the Red Sox even more valuable. There have already been multiple nights the last few weeks where the Bruins being out of the playoffs has caused me to watch a little more baseball than I otherwise would have. And with the NFL draft in the books, the Red Sox may be about to get the floor to themselves for the next 3+ months.

And it's not just their top prospects.


Castro 19 A
Ravelo 19 A
Ugueto 20 A+
Rosario 20 A+
Bonaci 20 A+

That makes the promising start for the Red Sox even more valuable. There have already been multiple nights the last few weeks where the Bruins being out of the playoffs has caused me to watch a little more baseball than I otherwise would have. And with the NFL draft in the books, the Red Sox may be about to get the floor to themselves for the next 3+ months.

It is right and proper that you are focused on baseball now. In fact, you should be anyway. At all times. Baseball. Always baseball!*














(*Except when UConn is playing in the tournament.)

(*Except when UConn is playing in the tournament.)

And even then, baseball!

Nice win last night. Bello, Duran....WOOF!!! Casas with a bomb that made Jansen's job easier. Very nice. And Kiké made three pretty nice plays in the first inning.

Last night's win against Atlanta was, in many ways, Chaim Bloom's dream outcome for 2023:
- Young promising starter has a strong night against a good team (Bello)
- Young pitcher acquired from past trade (Benintendi trade) settling into a role as an effective reliever (Winckowski) with strong 6th inning
- Important prospect for the team's future (Casas) hits a key 2-run HR, and adds a walk
- Expensive bullpen pieces back up young pitchers' performance with strong innings (Martin and Jansen)
- Young-ish player who is in a make-or-break season for his future continues to show he might stick this time around with 2 hits, including a double, a walk, and a SB (Duran).

Look, I'm happy with any Red Sox win, but what I really want is a sign of long-term progress. Bello, Winckowski, Casas, and Duran last night were all examples of long-term hope. Martin and Jansen are examples of Bloom trying to sign veterans to short-term deals who can provide enough stability and performance to give the fans a competitive product on short money while he keeps trying to get the young guys up and running in the bigs.

The best part of last night's baseball news might not have even been in Atlanta. Seeing Nick Yorke hit another HR last night and look like he is back to his 2021 form in AA as a 21-year-old.

Prior to his injury on April 9, Adam Duvall was 1st among position players with 1.1 fWAR. Since his call up on April 17, Jarren Duran is second among position players with 1.4 fWAR (Semien has 1.6).

Their combined stats for 2023:

30 G, 125 PA, 25 R, 17 2B, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 6 SB 0 CS 9 BB, 27 K, .396/.448/.730, 2.5 fWAR, 2.3 rWAR

650 PA Pace
156 G, 650 PA, 130 R, 88 2B, 31 HR, 146 RBI, 31 SB 0 CS 47 BB, 140 K, .396/.448/.730, 13.0 fWAR, 12.0 rWAR

The rest of the CF brigade has been pretty bad--the team total for the position is 2.0 rWAR.

Cool story about a fan tracking down a kid who left behind his glove and a Devers-thrown ball at the Sox game. I'm a bit biased because Chelmsford is where I coach so I know the kid and coincidentally I make a brief appearance when they show Nolan's single (I'm in the red shirt on the opposite bench). He's a good kid so I'm happy for him.

Anyone know why Greenville decided to sit the hottest minor league hitter this week? I've done extensive searches on why Marcelo hasn't been playing, but have found nada.

I found a tweet that says he has left shoulder soreness but should be back this weekend: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1656824596358733824

Ok. It's time for me to own up to my mistake. The Red Sox are a pretty good team. I hope that Chaim Bloom gets credit for what he's put together. With no SS or C to have any confidence in, with iffy pitching, they've proven they're much better than I thought. I don't care if they finish .500 or worse, that won't vindicate my initial impression of them.

Great job Bivens!

Following "Red Sox Twitter" (and the countless number of Red Sox-centric podcasts that continue to pop up) is a real roller coaster so far this young season.

At 21-14, those of us that said they were probably a .500 team (I've said a little below .500 team) were getting dinged for being so obviously wrong.

But these same voices, at 22-20, with some pretty ugly types of losses over the past week, are despondent. Why don't we have a shortstop or second baseman who can competently field the position? Get Pivetta out of the rotation! Whitlock can't stat healthy! Houck can't get through five innings without a problem! Ort sucks! Brasier sucks! Bleier sucks!

The reality is that a handful of the players who have powered their strong start offensively are coming back to Earth:

- Verdugo, in his last 20 games, is .253/.337/.443. His career OPS in Boston entering this year was .768. In his last 20 games, it is .780. He'll have some ups and downs during the season, but he's a slightly-above-average player, which is fine.

- Duran was going .417/.456/.683 through his first 17 games of the year. Since then: .200/.294/.300. He's better than that...but obviously nowhere near as good as the first three weeks.

- Wong had about the best three games you could have at the beginning of the month, going 9-for-12 with three HRs and a 2B. Red Sox Twitter was like, "Maybe the Mookie Betts trade wasn't so bad, after all!" Here are his offensive stats for the entire season, outside of those three games: .147/.210/.213.

To be fair, at the same time, Casas has started heating up, and he'll eventually be fine at 1B. Devers has not started well; Yoshida started slowly, but has come on. This stuff will probably even out over the course of the season, with average luck.

I still think this is a 79-win team that can be more like an 84-win team if Sale and Paxton are effective and healthy. But it could also be a 74-win team if those two guys can't stay healthy, combined with 2B/SS/CF becoming black holes. Watching Valdez at 2B a few times lately, I have to say: he is as advertised. I think he can hit, but every play at 2B is an adventure. Story coming back later this year would help stabilize the position. Also, there are three guys in the minors who are all varying levels of "interesting", but it is not clear any of the three can play enough defense at 2B to stick there long-term (Hamilton, Yorke, and Meidroth).

My message to Red Sox Twitter: We aren't nearly as good as we looked at 21-14, but we're also not as bad as the last four nights have looked. The next few weeks could get ugly (a nine-game trip out west, a four-game series against Tampa Bay), so enjoy the Celtics for the next 2-4 weeks, and let's root for a duck boat tour in late June!

This team reminds me a lot of the Sox teams of my youth in the early 80s. When the bats are hot and they are getting moderately good pitching they can beat anyone. If the bats cool off a bit or the pitching falters they could lose to AA teams. At 22-20 they are on an 85-77 pace which I don't think is out of the question. I think the downside is probably a bit more likely than the upside because of the pitching. As Bivens said, at least they are fun to watch which was something I was concerned about when the year started.

This team reminds me a lot of the Sox teams of my youth in the early 80s. When the bats are hot and they are getting moderately good pitching they can beat anyone. If the bats cool off a bit or the pitching falters they could lose to AA teams.

That describes the 1977 Red Sox from June 17th through July 3rd. Bivens might remember this.

They began that stretch by sweeping the Yankees in Fenway by a combined 30 runs to 9. From there they went straight to Baltimore and beat the O's 4 straight by 25 to 7. During those 7 games they threw 2 shutouts and hit a record breaking 25 home runs, and when it was over they were 5 games ahead.

But after that? They went to Yankee Stadium, blew a 2 run 9th inning lead with 2 outs and nobody on, lost again the next day, and then rallied for 3 runs in the 9th the next day, only to lose again on a walkoff. From there they were swept in Detroit with another walkoff loss thrown in, and then came home to get swept by the Orioles to the tune of 25 to 12. By the time it was over they'd lost 9 straight and had fallen into second place behind the Yankees. It was like watching the 1914 A's become the 1915 A's overnight, without the benefit of an offseason where the manager sold most of his best players.

I have a soft spot for the late 70's Red Sox teams. Big offense, with once very good pitchers on the downsides of their careers (Rick Wise, Luis Tiant, Ferguson Jenkins)... The 77 team has the most potent Red Sox offense of that era...and maybe all eras.

I meant "of all Red Sox teams", obviously.

- Verdugo, in his last 20 games, is .253/.337/.443. His career OPS in Boston entering this year was .768. In his last 20 games, it is .780. He'll have some ups and downs during the season, but he's a slightly-above-average player, which is fine.

- Duran was going .417/.456/.683 through his first 17 games of the year. Since then: .200/.294/.300. He's better than that...but obviously nowhere near as good as the first three weeks.

- Wong had about the best three games you could have at the beginning of the month, going 9-for-12 with three HRs and a 2B. Red Sox Twitter was like, "Maybe the Mookie Betts trade wasn't so bad, after all!" Here are his offensive stats for the entire season, outside of those three games: .147/.210/.213.

Endpoints! Get your endpoints here! Come and get them while they're hot! Pick the ones you like best! :)

In May
Verdugo: .292 .393 .521
Duran: .304 .396 .522

I'm still trying to be skeptical about Verdugo, but there's a real chance is more than slightly above average. I think you're probably right that Duran is somewhere between the 1.100 OPS in his first 17 games and the .600 OPS since. He's also not the 1.000 OPS he has for the year. But if he can play a passable CF and put up the .263 .320 .428 line ZIPS projects for the rest of the reason, that will be pretty exciting!

As for Wong, come on. If we're going to remove his best 3 games, yeah he's not going to look good. Let's try it with Mookie by removing his best 5 games (he's played a lot more than Wong). Here's what the rest of his season looks like:

.185/.306/.378

The Mookie trade wasn't so bad after all!

If you can't handle Connor Wong at his worst you don't deserve the 3 days at his best.

The roller coaster ride continues! Four games that were painful followed by two that were wildly fun. It's nice to see (more or less) the whole lineup contributing in various ways.

And the entire AL East continues to be half of the teams with the best records in the majors.

They called up some young guys and they contributed immediately both in the lineup and bullpen.

FUN!

Apparently MLB has sent out a memo about the 'fake out the pitcher by not being in the box but staring at him' trick. Now if you try that, you get a warning and if you do it again, you get a strike. Seems like more complicated than necessary. Just make the umpire decide if/when the batter is ready and signal the pitcher.

I'm hoping someone will try painting fake eyeballs on their eyelides to make it look like they're looking at the pitcher and getting the ball call.

They are overcomplicating it. The batter has 8 seconds to be ready. After the 8 second mark, the pitcher can start his motion. If the hitter isn't ready and gets quick pitched, too ####### bad. Stay in the box.

I totally agree with Jose in #65: Take the subjectivity out of it, and make it based on the clock. Players will quickly adjust. I mean, we aren't even at Memorial Day yet, and it seems that the whole clock thing is almost a non-subject anymore, already.

And as for Darren's points about selective endpoints, I will admit I'm a little guilty of that above. But the Wong thing is legit, IMO. Everybody has a 4-for-4 sometimes (including Mookie!), but I wasn't picking out Wong's best three games, sprinkled throughout the season. I was simply taking the one weekend where he did anything, and then looking at literally everything before it, and everything after it.

I mean, there's a light-hitting catcher, and then there's Connor Wong. He went 0-for-3 with an HBP last night, so those stats above are even worse, but I'm not cherry-picking.

Here is everything he's done since that "Hot Summer Weekend":
2-for-28, with an HBP. That's a .071/.103/.214 slash line.

Here is everything he did before that "Hot Summer Weekend":
9-for-50, with 5 walks. That's a .180/.268/.260 slash line.

He's thrown out 8 of 21 who've attempted a stolen base (38%, league average is 21%), and that adds legit value. That's an extra four outs from average due to Wong's defensive ability, which likely stopped those innings in their tracks.

But if he can't hit better than this, it's tough - it effectively neutralizes somebody like Yoshida's strong start to the season.

Why does it make it worse if someone's monster hitting games come bunched together rather than sprinkled through the season?

If there was something special about that weekend, like they were facing the A's pitching or something, I'd see a point in separating it out. But it was against two separate decent teams, Cleveland and Toronto.

Wong is JBJ reincarnate. Great defense, and contributes a ton when he hits, cause boy he can hit, but then most of the time he's a black hole on offense. Those D numbers better stay high...

They can get by with 6 guys hitting and 3 guys slacking.

Of all the kids they are using this year, I'm most excited about Bello, who is a future ace, it looks like.

Just for fun, and curious about the evaluation of Bello, I went digging for Sickels' grades for Boston prospects from 2019. Sickels' ratings are A for elite, B for likely MLB career, C for a common prospect. They were:

A : none
B : Chavis, Dalbec, Casas, Hernandez, Mata, Houck
B-: Groome, Shawaryn, Chatham, Flores, Feltman, Decker
C+: Denyi Reyes, Duran, Ockimey, Howlett, Lakins, Poyner, Jhonathan Diaz, Crawford, Roldani Baldwin, Bazardo, Dearden, Danny Diaz, Devlin Granberg, Jimenez, Tanner Nishioka, Nick Northcut, Esteban Quiroz, Roniel Raudes, Yasel Santana, Alex Scherff, Chandler Shepherd, Sam Travis
C: Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Bello, Cole Brannen, Marino Campana, Pedro Castellanos, Kole Cottam, William Cuevas, Enmanuel De Jesus, Tyler Esplin, Daniel Gonzalez, Kyle Hart, Dedgar Jimenez, Matthew Kent, Eduardo Lopez, Joan Martinez, Alexander Montero, Brett Netzer, Austin Rei, Zach Schellenger, Chase Shugart, Josh Taylor, Jake Thompson, Marcus Walden

A lot of the C and C+ players are out of baseball now, or will be soon. The B- group isn't doing that great, either. Sickels did note that a handful of C players will become B or even A, as they might develop differently or are too new as prospects to establish a good rating at the time. There were a few in there, as Duran appears to be a B, Taylor has already made it to that level, and Bello could transcend it eventually. But, like, that was the system in 2019.

I guess that if TNSTAAPP, then there is no such thing as declaring a pitcher just a C prospect.

Curious why you went to Sickels--i didn't even realize he was still doing it as recently as 2019. He was my favorite prospect maven and I really miss him.

Not fun the past few days, but still some bright spots:

--According to Reference, they're tied for the toughest schedule in baseball. 26-23 is a very nice record considering that.
--The rotation appears to be rounding into shape. Sale, Paxton, Bello, Houck, and Whitlock sounds good to me.

What's the plan for Kluber? I feel he could do Brasier's job...high leverage 7th and 8th inning guy.

As a Red Sox fan, obviously I want the team to make the playoffs, win lots of games, and win a World Series. The 2023 version of the team is unlikely to get there, but I am generally very pleased (as Darren says above) that the team is keeping its head above water while generally giving most of its younger players a very long leash. Ultimately, we need to figure out what we have. So far:

1) Bello, Houck, and Whitlock are getting as much opportunity as they are healthy enough to grab. (Keep in mind, if somebody like Whitlock just keeps getting hurt, that is also a valuable data point to learn.)

2) McGuire and Wong are both useful catchers. Wong's defense makes him at least good enough to be a solid, inexpensive backup; McGuire's bat appears good enough that between the two, we've got a solution for the next few years.

3) Casas? We've just got to play him all year and see what happens. He is definitely hitting much better in May than April (.250/.355/.442). He'll be fine.

4) I am really pleased the team is letting Valdez play a lot at 2B right now. Why not - who else would they put out there who, when you combine the offense and defense, is going to be much better? And we need to figure out if Valdez is part of the future.

5) I'm glad Duran's gotten the chance to play every day. Unfortunately, I fear pitchers have made the adjustments, and Duran has been pretty awful at the plate the last 2-3 weeks. His BABIP was above .500 during his first few weeks this year; his current BABIP is about half that since then. The BB/K ratios and %'s aren't very different over that full stretch; it appears he'd gone from extreme good luck to slightly below-average luck (or he's making consistently weaker contact now?). Regardless, he'll be 27 later this season, so he's no longer a prospect - he's either a useful piece or he's not. I am glad we are figuring it out by letting him play every day.

Add to that Yorke's and Drohan's excellent starts to the season in the minors, Mayer's continued excellence, and I'm pretty happy with how productive 2023 has been thus far in trying to figure out where we are going in 2024 and beyond.

What's the plan for Kluber? I feel he could do Brasier's job...high leverage 7th and 8th inning guy.

Yikes. I cannot picture that going well. Struggling starters who succeed tend to only have 1-2 and/or benefit from the boost in velocity they get from going max effort for 15-20 pitches. Kluber doesn't look like either of those to me. He seems like he's either valuable as a starter or not valuable at all.

One other "positive" (I guess?) bit: Chris Sale is having an excellent year against everyone except the Orioles:

2 starts vs Bal: 8 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 6 K, 3 HR, 13.50 ERA
7 other starts: 42.1 IP, 30 H, 10 BB, 56 K, 5 HR, 3.40 ERA

There was some talk at the time about whether Baltimore picked up on him tipping his pitches in some way, as they seemed to be on every one of his pitches. These splits might support that idea. Let's hope they figured out what it was!

Great post, SBPT. One question: do you really feel like Casas will be fine? Yes, he's generally been pretty unlucky on BIP--Statcast has his expected wOBA at .344 (actual wOBA .300). I guess he'd look a lot better with that .344 wOBA, which would be something like .270/.340/.440. And I know that he's hit better in May but if your good streak is only .250/.355/.442, that's kind of underwhelming.

I guess I'm believing my lying eyes a little too much but he is very hard to watch. He seems to let a lot of hittable pitches go by and also appears to not have any idea how to hit a breaking pitch. I guess I should take a page out of his book and learn to be patient.

Kluber to the pen. I'm guessing mop-up until he can figure it out, if he can.

What's the plan for Kluber? I feel he could do Brasier's job...high leverage 7th and 8th inning guy.

I'm just glad he hasn't been here long enough for us to get attached to. I think he's actually been worse than Brasier.

One question: do you really feel like Casas will be fine?

I thin he will be...but here's the honest answer: I am prepared to give him a ridiculously long leash. I mean, the Red Sox have struggled mightily to put up a league-average player at 1B for several years now, including when they went to the ALCS in 2021.

I mean, Eric Hosmer was actually an upgrade at the trade deadline over what they had.

And the system has absolutely nothing in the pipeline if Casas doesn't work out. On SoxProspects.com, here's the list of all the first basemen-types in the system:

15. Blaze Jordan (a 3B who is getting some time at 1B now as
27. Niko Kavadas (a 24-year-old at AA hitting .236 with some pop)
50. Lyonel James (a 20-year-old in low-A who, like Jordan, is a 3B getting some reps at 1B. He is currently hitting .209)

That's it. Dalbec is the AAA 1B.

If Casas doesn't work out to be at least an above-average hitter and average glove at 1B, it really sets the team's rebuilding plan back. In theory, a guy like Casas should be one of the most reliable types of prospects you can draft and develop - a 1B with a ton of power and patience. He's produced throughout his rise in the minors. He's supposed to be our no-brainer.

I think he will eventually attack hittable pitches earlier in the count, and when he does, good things will happen. But I don't care if he hits .200 with a ton of walks and 15 HRs for the season - we have to just grind through it and hope the projection comes through on the other side, I think.

Over in the Hosmer DFA thread, Walt pointed out the dearth of good options at 1B in recent offseasons:

Bell 95 OPS+, 0 WAR
Myers 49 OPS+, -0.5 WAR
Voit 53 OPS+, -0.2 WAR
Hosmer 67 OPS+, -0.4 WAR
Mervis 56 OPS+, -0.1 WAR
Mancini 89 OPS+, -0.5 WAR
Abreu 47 OPS+, -1.0 WAR (wow!)
CJ Cron 79 OPS+, -0.2 WAR
Y Gurriel 81 OPS+, -0.3 WAR

It seems like 1B should be an easy spot to fill, but for some reason, it hasn't been recently. As for the Red Sox system, Blaze Jordan seems pretty interesting and likely headed from 3B to 1B, but he's a couple years away probably. Kavadas has a shot maybe too. I don't know much about that Dalbec guy, but his numbers look good. I'll check him out.

I think you're right that they have to ride with Dalbec in hopes that he's at least something like a late model Mitch Moreland.

If Casas doesn't work out to be at least an above-average hitter and average glove at 1B, it really sets the team's rebuilding plan back. In theory, a guy like Casas should be one of the most reliable types of prospects you can draft and develop - a 1B with a ton of power and patience. He's produced throughout his rise in the minors. He's supposed to be our no-brainer.

Is this true? I would have thought that a big huge dude drafted out of high school with old player skills would be, generally, a risky type. The no brainers are the college guys with great contact skills and approach, who play middle infield, right?

Long-term, if Casas can't hit, they might teach Enmanuel Valdez (tell him, Wash) how to play 1B.

Long-term, if Casas can't hit, they might teach Enmanuel Valdez (tell him, Wash) how to play 1B.

I love that scene. Especially the next part:

Beane: Scott, it's not that hard, Scott. Tell, 'em Wash.
Washington: It's incredibly hard.
Beane: Hey, anything worth doing is, and we're going to teach you.
....
Hatteberg: You want me to take Giambi's spot at first base. What about the fans?
Washington: Yeah, maybe I can teach one of them.
Beane: The fans don't... good one...

Beane's pausing to acknowledge the crack just kills me. It also just occurred to me that there is no reason for Washington to be at the meeting. The only possible reason for him to be there is help convince Hatteberg that he can teach him, which as Beane must surely have known, was not going to happen. Made for funny dialogue though.

Not directly Red Sox related but Bill James appears to have completely lost it over on Twitter. He apparently thinks Thurman Munson was wildly overrated so he made a terrible joke about how Munson was probably a better player than a pilot. Then he doubled down a bunch. It was a real spectacle.

It kind of figures that Twitter would be the forum for an old man losing it.