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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Monday, May 01, 2023The Only Game In Town (except the Celtics, but I don’t care about the Celtics. No you shut up)With the National Hockey League having decided to cancel this year’s playoffs it looks like the only option for Boston sports fans is the Local Nine. After a month of baseball things are decidedly adequate. The Sox so far have about played to expectations clocking in at 15-14 with a potent offense (3rd in runs/game) and a pungent pitching staff (12th in runs/game). Not coincidentally the defense has also been poor with only juggernauts Kansas City, Oakland and Chicago below them in Defensive Efficiency. What’s been most interesting to me is that they have in fact been interesting. I don’t think they are appreciably better or worse than anticipated but some things are happening that I find entertaining. If this year is about trying to build toward a better future some things have happened over the first month that are providing some hope. Jarren Duran - The eternal prospect seems to be figuring things out. He still has something less than a great K:BB rate but what he’s doing to deal with that is being a bit more aggressive and putting the ball in play more regularly. He has cut his K rate to roughly league average and with his speed putting balls in play is a good thing though I suspect, and I’m going out on a limb here, that the .486 BABIP will not continue. But he has become much less pull happy (27% last year, 18% this year) and his line drive rate has skyrocketed. Future star? No probably not. But useful piece? Yeah absolutely. Connor Wong - OK, I’m getting to Blake Swihart levels here on this kid but I’m starting to get excited. Let’s start with the real shocker, the dude has the best dWAR of any catcher in baseball and has gunned down a league best 46% (6 of 13) would be base stealers. Add in that the Sox have a pitchers’ ERA over two runs better with him over McGuire and for a guy thought to be a defensive liability those are good signs. The pitcher ERA thing is almost certainly just noise but the throwing has been impressive. On top of that the bat seems to be finding itself. After a terrible start (0 for 10) he’s hit .283/.365/.413 (yeah selective end points!) and just looks better to the naked eye. I’m hopeful here. Triston Casas - Casas has been totally domin…ok maybe not. I like his approach though and that he has not really gotten himself out of that approach. It reminds me a lot of Kevin Youkilis’ in his early days and I think Casas just needs to get a bit better at attacking hittable pitches early in the count. Watching him right now I’m reminded of a game nearly exactly 26 years ago. In that game Trot Nixon, hitting just .081/.128/.162, drew 3 walks and scored four runs to help the Sox to a 9-4 win. It struck me that this kid in the midst of struggling at the plate was maintaining his plate discipline. I feel the same way about Casas. It may take some time but I remain hopeful. Josh Winckowski - I’ll be honest, I’m not a big believer that he’s some stud reliever but he has been awfully impressive and his multi-inning ability is extremely useful. None of these guys is a star at the moment and Casas is the only one likely to reach such status but they are contributors. If the year ends and the Sox can solidify a third of the lineup and find a solid reliever under club control that’s a good bit of business. It’s just a month and with Toronto coming to town things get tough. The Sox have not had an especially easy schedule so far. Opponent records (not including games against the Sox) so far; Baltimore - 16-6 (3-3) Only the Tigers and Guardians are sub-.500 and the Sox have played 3 of the 6 division leaders. Baseball-Reference has their strength of schedule so far ranked as 7th overall so they are doing their job. None of this is to say “hey, they are going all the way” or even “hey, they are going to the playoffs” but I feel a lot more optimistic that this team is going to be interesting than I did a month ago. Now watch the Blue Jays sweep and piss me off. Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: May 01, 2023 at 09:14 AM | 87 comment(s)
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1. villageidiom Posted: May 01, 2023 at 11:05 PM (#6126433)--Yoshida keeps getting on base twice a game and his WAR keeps going down. He's down to 0.2 on FG, due to his -10.9 UZR/150 and a staggering -2.1 on the basepaths. Over at BRef, he jumped to 0.4, with a -1 in baserunning and -24 rdrs/yr. Does he look this bad on the bases and in the field to anyone?
--In contrast, Wong is a defensive dynamo. His 0.8 WAR on reference is due largely to his +46 rdrs/yr. FG isn't quite as rosy but he's good there too.
--Casas's 17.0 BB% is 5th in the Majors, but thanks to his .128 BA he's got only a .281 OBP. If he were even hitting a paltry .200, his line would be .200/.340/.354. I don't know what is going on with him--it's hard to watch.
--Coming into this season, Enrique Hernandez had made 6 errors in 618 innings at SS, with a UZR/150 of 12.3. This year, he's committed 8 errors in 146 innings (~16 games), with a UZR/150 of -19.8. He's on pace for 80 errors, a Hobsonian pace.
--Not to be outdone, Enmanuel Valdez has made 3 errors in 57 innings at 2B, with a -54 uzr/150. As a result, he's below replacement level despite his .900+ ops.
--Alex Verdugo is hitting .311/.373/.508. Has he turned a corner? Has his new focus on being more athletic and making contact paid off? Should the Red Sox be trying to lock him up ASAP? Possibly, but the jury is very much still out. The fact is, he's had months like this fairly often over the past two years:
*August 2022: .330/.393/.491
*June 2022: .337/.400/.505
*August 2021: .341/.410/.489
*Mar/Apr 2021: .300/.363/.500
As exciting as it is to watch him be a clutch god and all, we should probably hold back our enthusiasm for another couple months.
- I really think Valdez could be a weapon as the primary DH in a platoon. He's inexpensive, and under team control for a quite a while. The scouting reports on his defense were stunningly poor; maybe he can improve enough that you can stick at 2B or LF or something with more practice, but as an everyday infielder, it seems unwise.
- I have been very skeptical of Verdugo since the end of 2021 (2020 Verdugo was probably the most exciting part of a terrible season), and I am still reluctant to say he's jumped up a level. As Darren notes, he's had months like this before. He's also been a barely-above average hitter the last two years, and a barely-below average fielder, with below-average speed. That's not a logical candidate for the kind of contract extension a lot of fans are proposing out there (5/$80m! Do it today!). He has another year under contract before hitting the market after 2024. If he does this all year, then you make a legit offer. After all, the organization doesn't really have in-house candidates to start in the OF in the next few years beyond (maybe) Ceddanne Rafaela in AA. He's got the glove, but has a very high-BABIP .300 average with no walks who is far from a sure thing. In low-A, we've got Bleis and Roman Anthony, but they are a long, long ways away. With Verdugo, I just don't want Boston to commit a lot of years and a lot of money to an outfielder who is, basically, an average player with no speed entering his 30s. The White Sox gave Benintendi 4/$68m, based off of his 1 1/2 years in Kansas City, and I suspect that will be an undesirable contract pretty quickly. To me, teams don't get in trouble by paying stars a lot of money; they get in trouble by paying average players (who are pretty replacable) like they are scarce.
Please tell me you mean "has the potential", rather than "likely". Please.
I'm sold on Yoshida. He's good. Yay!
I am happy with Duran's hitting since being called up. He's been a pleasant surprise.
Verdugo has been very good. I hope he can continue to be very good.
Wong has been very good. I hope he proves me wrong...that's right, I hope Wong proves me wrong! He surprised me with that HR he hit yesterday. Boom! Deep!
Sale is looking good. Kluber looked half decent last night.
They're not a terribly frustrating team to watch these days. Even though they blew a big lead against Cleveland the other day, they won the game, which made it palatable.
As for the pitching...well let's just say the offense is averaging 5.7 RPG.
I'm especially enjoying the lofty position above the cellar dwelling NY...
11 come from behind wins makes for exciting baseball but I'd rather they weren't trailing in 3/4 of their games.
Time will tell if Bloom is getting lucky for now, or if he actually was playing 4-D chess all along.
I continue to enjoy this (potentially) .500 team.
Feels like this needs a slight amendment.
--In conclusion, Wong is a defensive and offensive dynamo. His 1.3 WAR on reference is due his being great at everything in the world. FG isn't quite as rosy but he's still a big superstar there too.
This one does too.
I didn't think Wong's defense would be a strength, but dang, he sure can throw 'em out. Baserunners are 20-21 in SB against McGuire and 8-14 against Wong.
Since he is hitting way better than expected, he has cleared turned into the most valuable player ever.
In terms of the team being interesting... I think it's a fair question whether their development efforts were fruitful with Duran, Wong, Casas, Bello, and several others. Only time will tell on that. But they certainly are compelling. The kids aside, I'll assume for now that it's luck that Verdugo has turned into a defensively-capable David Ortiz for the last month.
He talks a bit about how he struggles when he tries to hit for power, and that he's determined this year not to fall into that trap. That would be nice.
"It goes in waves. You start having success — you started going on a little hot streak — and you’re like, ‘All right. I’m feeling good. Now I’m going to lift some home runs and do some damage.’ Suddenly, you find yourself in a slump. You’re struggling again."
Way back in Little League I was one of the few kids big enough to hit home runs over the fence. Every single one I hit surprised me because they all came when I wasn't swinging HARD. I can still remember how they felt. Later in life it made sense, but at 12 I couldn't figure that out. My dad would be all "just make contact" (he knew what was going on) but c'mon, screw that, I wanted to hit home runs. But I could only hit them "by accident", so to speak.
Watching guys like Duran, Wong and Winckowski show early success it's easy to forget in the long off season that individual success at the major league level is uneven and has many paths...you can't really gameplay a persons ability to meet and overcome adversity, or not. Maybe that's secret of the Tampa Bay philosophy, throw enough prospects at the wall and a enough of them end up sticking.
CF: +1.4 (#1 in AL)
RF: +1.0 (#1)
C : +1.0 (#1)
RP: +0.9 (#4)
3B: +0.4 (#5)
LF: +0.1 (#5)
DH: +0.0 (#5)
SS: -0.2 (#12)
2B: -0.4 (#7)
1B: -0.9 (#14)
SP: -1.6 (#14)
As for the Celtics, that was some serious chemistry! Extra passes galore...
It was weird. A couple of players looked like they saw someone whose head was turned 180 degrees from normal, and then we saw her laying on the stretcher with her head up, looking comfortable.
Nothing! I think they're a good team. Their offense no longer surprises me.
Duvall's injury gave Duran a chance to show that he can hit. Now, his defense isn't as big of a liability as I thought.
Wong hits the ball hard. He's no Jeff Mathis.
Kiké is ok at short.
I mean, it's pretty astounding either of those are true. There's probably a "have we misjudged them" thread in the future, and if we wait long enough the answer could be "no". They are still within a reasonable variation from mediocrity, what with this still being early in the season.
But, man, have they been fun to watch.
That's very encouraging after his down season list year.
So far this year, they have displayed good consistency with no real extended poor sections of play. I think their starting pitching is trending in the right direction and have a lot of experienced guys coming off the IL, some of whom will be impactful. The biggest question will be how some of these young/new guys respond when they come back down to earth, will they adjust or not? That's probably the key between a great season and something less.
At some point, Casas is going to hit. Even if he hits only .230 for the season, it would mean (based on some quick math) that he'd have to hit about .245 the rest of the season to reach .230. Combined with even a fraction of his current walk rate, that'd be a rookie 1B going .245/.370 - which is a valuable player.
Here's a funny stat, on a very small sample size: There have been six PAs this year where Casas has faced a 3-1 count. Five of the six times, he took the pitch. All five times, the pitch was called a ball, and he walked. The one time he swung, he made contact but was out (not sure what the out looked like). My instinct was that Casas might be letting too many "hitter's count" pitches go as strikes, but I'm not sure the early data confirms that. I mean, that 3-1 count data gives a bizarre slash line of .000/.833/.000. I guess that's good?
In 22 PAs which reach 3-2, Casas is...1-for-13 with 9 walks and 11 strikeouts, for a slash line of .077/.455/.077.
His BABIP is awful (.186); he also doesn't put the ball in play that much, because of all the walks and strikeouts. He is going to be a fascinating player to watch develop the next few years.
My biggest praise of the team this far is that I do not get the sense Bloom is willing to sacrifice opportunities for younger (or undefined) in the name of trying to win a few extra games this year. We need to let Casas play all year, and see what we've got. I'd rather see Valdez playing 2B (or DH) than putting a stopgap veteran there. Let's see if Duran's progress is sustainable. Bello and Houck? Keep them in the rotation, and let them develop. I'm skeptical that Wong is as good as he's looked lately, but I hope he is! Let's find out! And so forth.
No Cokes for factual information.
I agree so far but if the team remains in the playoff hunt as Duval, Story, and Mondesi (ha!) return, and Casas is still at or below replacement level, it would make some sense to send him down for a bit. The same applies to Valdez if he doesn't continue to hit.
Steamer .244/.293/.413
ZIPS .253/.304/.435
Actual .257/.313/.459
Whyyyyyy????? :)
Two game series are still strange to me even though they've been happening for years now.
Since t.f. when? Plus are you some kind of mind-reader and knew that I had no subjective component to my post?
Ok, fine, whatever-on the heels of #37, f. AA, MM could be in Boston by September.
That good enough for ya?
You'll have to ask rLr. I think it's his rule.
I am no kind of mind reader.
Hickey: 23, catcher, drafted in the 5th round of 2021 (got a $1 mil. bonus). He's hit .294 .402 .588 in A+ this year and has generally shown good power and patience in the minors. Soxprospects has him as #15 in the system and considers his defense fringy.
Meidroth: 22, 2B, drafted in round 4 last year. Another contact/eye savant, he's hitting .338/.495/.459 in A+ this year, and has a career line of .327/.466/.500 across rookie ball, A, and A+. Soxprospects recently moved him up from 30th to 22nd in the system and seems to like his fielding.
Mayer 20 A+
Bleis 19 A
Rafaela 22 AA
Yorke 21 AA (even after struggling last year)
Romero 19 A
Anthony 19 A
Paulino 20 A
Lugo 22 AA
Valdez 24 MLB
Hickey 23 AA
Jordan 20 A+
Coffey 18 A
Hamilton 25 AAA
Abreu 23 AAA
The only ones who are even remotely old for their level here are Hickey (just reached AA) and Hamilton. Meanwhile, guys like Anthony, Jordan, and Coffey, despite not being top prospects, are pretty young for their level.
Pitching is a different story:
Drohan 24 AA
Mata 24 AAA
Perales 20 A
Walter 26 AAA
Gonzalez 21 A
Rodriguez-Cruz 19 A
Murphy 24 AAA
A couple exceptions but generally quite a bit more conservative.
Edit:
Avg ages for leagues:
Batters
A 20.9
A+ 22.3
AA 24.0
AAA 26.6
Pitchers
A 21.8
A+ 23.2
AA 24.6
AAA 27.3
That makes the promising start for the Red Sox even more valuable. There have already been multiple nights the last few weeks where the Bruins being out of the playoffs has caused me to watch a little more baseball than I otherwise would have. And with the NFL draft in the books, the Red Sox may be about to get the floor to themselves for the next 3+ months.
Castro 19 A
Ravelo 19 A
Ugueto 20 A+
Rosario 20 A+
Bonaci 20 A+
It is right and proper that you are focused on baseball now. In fact, you should be anyway. At all times. Baseball. Always baseball!*
(*Except when UConn is playing in the tournament.)
- Young promising starter has a strong night against a good team (Bello)
- Young pitcher acquired from past trade (Benintendi trade) settling into a role as an effective reliever (Winckowski) with strong 6th inning
- Important prospect for the team's future (Casas) hits a key 2-run HR, and adds a walk
- Expensive bullpen pieces back up young pitchers' performance with strong innings (Martin and Jansen)
- Young-ish player who is in a make-or-break season for his future continues to show he might stick this time around with 2 hits, including a double, a walk, and a SB (Duran).
Look, I'm happy with any Red Sox win, but what I really want is a sign of long-term progress. Bello, Winckowski, Casas, and Duran last night were all examples of long-term hope. Martin and Jansen are examples of Bloom trying to sign veterans to short-term deals who can provide enough stability and performance to give the fans a competitive product on short money while he keeps trying to get the young guys up and running in the bigs.
The best part of last night's baseball news might not have even been in Atlanta. Seeing Nick Yorke hit another HR last night and look like he is back to his 2021 form in AA as a 21-year-old.
Their combined stats for 2023:
30 G, 125 PA, 25 R, 17 2B, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 6 SB 0 CS 9 BB, 27 K, .396/.448/.730, 2.5 fWAR, 2.3 rWAR
650 PA Pace
156 G, 650 PA, 130 R, 88 2B, 31 HR, 146 RBI, 31 SB 0 CS 47 BB, 140 K, .396/.448/.730, 13.0 fWAR, 12.0 rWAR
The rest of the CF brigade has been pretty bad--the team total for the position is 2.0 rWAR.
Great job Bivens!
At 21-14, those of us that said they were probably a .500 team (I've said a little below .500 team) were getting dinged for being so obviously wrong.
But these same voices, at 22-20, with some pretty ugly types of losses over the past week, are despondent. Why don't we have a shortstop or second baseman who can competently field the position? Get Pivetta out of the rotation! Whitlock can't stat healthy! Houck can't get through five innings without a problem! Ort sucks! Brasier sucks! Bleier sucks!
The reality is that a handful of the players who have powered their strong start offensively are coming back to Earth:
- Verdugo, in his last 20 games, is .253/.337/.443. His career OPS in Boston entering this year was .768. In his last 20 games, it is .780. He'll have some ups and downs during the season, but he's a slightly-above-average player, which is fine.
- Duran was going .417/.456/.683 through his first 17 games of the year. Since then: .200/.294/.300. He's better than that...but obviously nowhere near as good as the first three weeks.
- Wong had about the best three games you could have at the beginning of the month, going 9-for-12 with three HRs and a 2B. Red Sox Twitter was like, "Maybe the Mookie Betts trade wasn't so bad, after all!" Here are his offensive stats for the entire season, outside of those three games: .147/.210/.213.
To be fair, at the same time, Casas has started heating up, and he'll eventually be fine at 1B. Devers has not started well; Yoshida started slowly, but has come on. This stuff will probably even out over the course of the season, with average luck.
I still think this is a 79-win team that can be more like an 84-win team if Sale and Paxton are effective and healthy. But it could also be a 74-win team if those two guys can't stay healthy, combined with 2B/SS/CF becoming black holes. Watching Valdez at 2B a few times lately, I have to say: he is as advertised. I think he can hit, but every play at 2B is an adventure. Story coming back later this year would help stabilize the position. Also, there are three guys in the minors who are all varying levels of "interesting", but it is not clear any of the three can play enough defense at 2B to stick there long-term (Hamilton, Yorke, and Meidroth).
My message to Red Sox Twitter: We aren't nearly as good as we looked at 21-14, but we're also not as bad as the last four nights have looked. The next few weeks could get ugly (a nine-game trip out west, a four-game series against Tampa Bay), so enjoy the Celtics for the next 2-4 weeks, and let's root for a duck boat tour in late June!
That describes the 1977 Red Sox from June 17th through July 3rd. Bivens might remember this.
They began that stretch by sweeping the Yankees in Fenway by a combined 30 runs to 9. From there they went straight to Baltimore and beat the O's 4 straight by 25 to 7. During those 7 games they threw 2 shutouts and hit a record breaking 25 home runs, and when it was over they were 5 games ahead.
But after that? They went to Yankee Stadium, blew a 2 run 9th inning lead with 2 outs and nobody on, lost again the next day, and then rallied for 3 runs in the 9th the next day, only to lose again on a walkoff. From there they were swept in Detroit with another walkoff loss thrown in, and then came home to get swept by the Orioles to the tune of 25 to 12. By the time it was over they'd lost 9 straight and had fallen into second place behind the Yankees. It was like watching the 1914 A's become the 1915 A's overnight, without the benefit of an offseason where the manager sold most of his best players.
Endpoints! Get your endpoints here! Come and get them while they're hot! Pick the ones you like best! :)
In May
Verdugo: .292 .393 .521
Duran: .304 .396 .522
I'm still trying to be skeptical about Verdugo, but there's a real chance is more than slightly above average. I think you're probably right that Duran is somewhere between the 1.100 OPS in his first 17 games and the .600 OPS since. He's also not the 1.000 OPS he has for the year. But if he can play a passable CF and put up the .263 .320 .428 line ZIPS projects for the rest of the reason, that will be pretty exciting!
As for Wong, come on. If we're going to remove his best 3 games, yeah he's not going to look good. Let's try it with Mookie by removing his best 5 games (he's played a lot more than Wong). Here's what the rest of his season looks like:
.185/.306/.378
The Mookie trade wasn't so bad after all!
And the entire AL East continues to be half of the teams with the best records in the majors.
They called up some young guys and they contributed immediately both in the lineup and bullpen.
FUN!
I'm hoping someone will try painting fake eyeballs on their eyelides to make it look like they're looking at the pitcher and getting the ball call.
And as for Darren's points about selective endpoints, I will admit I'm a little guilty of that above. But the Wong thing is legit, IMO. Everybody has a 4-for-4 sometimes (including Mookie!), but I wasn't picking out Wong's best three games, sprinkled throughout the season. I was simply taking the one weekend where he did anything, and then looking at literally everything before it, and everything after it.
I mean, there's a light-hitting catcher, and then there's Connor Wong. He went 0-for-3 with an HBP last night, so those stats above are even worse, but I'm not cherry-picking.
Here is everything he's done since that "Hot Summer Weekend":
2-for-28, with an HBP. That's a .071/.103/.214 slash line.
Here is everything he did before that "Hot Summer Weekend":
9-for-50, with 5 walks. That's a .180/.268/.260 slash line.
He's thrown out 8 of 21 who've attempted a stolen base (38%, league average is 21%), and that adds legit value. That's an extra four outs from average due to Wong's defensive ability, which likely stopped those innings in their tracks.
But if he can't hit better than this, it's tough - it effectively neutralizes somebody like Yoshida's strong start to the season.
A : none
B : Chavis, Dalbec, Casas, Hernandez, Mata, Houck
B-: Groome, Shawaryn, Chatham, Flores, Feltman, Decker
C+: Denyi Reyes, Duran, Ockimey, Howlett, Lakins, Poyner, Jhonathan Diaz, Crawford, Roldani Baldwin, Bazardo, Dearden, Danny Diaz, Devlin Granberg, Jimenez, Tanner Nishioka, Nick Northcut, Esteban Quiroz, Roniel Raudes, Yasel Santana, Alex Scherff, Chandler Shepherd, Sam Travis
C: Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Bello, Cole Brannen, Marino Campana, Pedro Castellanos, Kole Cottam, William Cuevas, Enmanuel De Jesus, Tyler Esplin, Daniel Gonzalez, Kyle Hart, Dedgar Jimenez, Matthew Kent, Eduardo Lopez, Joan Martinez, Alexander Montero, Brett Netzer, Austin Rei, Zach Schellenger, Chase Shugart, Josh Taylor, Jake Thompson, Marcus Walden
A lot of the C and C+ players are out of baseball now, or will be soon. The B- group isn't doing that great, either. Sickels did note that a handful of C players will become B or even A, as they might develop differently or are too new as prospects to establish a good rating at the time. There were a few in there, as Duran appears to be a B, Taylor has already made it to that level, and Bello could transcend it eventually. But, like, that was the system in 2019.
--According to Reference, they're tied for the toughest schedule in baseball. 26-23 is a very nice record considering that.
--The rotation appears to be rounding into shape. Sale, Paxton, Bello, Houck, and Whitlock sounds good to me.
1) Bello, Houck, and Whitlock are getting as much opportunity as they are healthy enough to grab. (Keep in mind, if somebody like Whitlock just keeps getting hurt, that is also a valuable data point to learn.)
2) McGuire and Wong are both useful catchers. Wong's defense makes him at least good enough to be a solid, inexpensive backup; McGuire's bat appears good enough that between the two, we've got a solution for the next few years.
3) Casas? We've just got to play him all year and see what happens. He is definitely hitting much better in May than April (.250/.355/.442). He'll be fine.
4) I am really pleased the team is letting Valdez play a lot at 2B right now. Why not - who else would they put out there who, when you combine the offense and defense, is going to be much better? And we need to figure out if Valdez is part of the future.
5) I'm glad Duran's gotten the chance to play every day. Unfortunately, I fear pitchers have made the adjustments, and Duran has been pretty awful at the plate the last 2-3 weeks. His BABIP was above .500 during his first few weeks this year; his current BABIP is about half that since then. The BB/K ratios and %'s aren't very different over that full stretch; it appears he'd gone from extreme good luck to slightly below-average luck (or he's making consistently weaker contact now?). Regardless, he'll be 27 later this season, so he's no longer a prospect - he's either a useful piece or he's not. I am glad we are figuring it out by letting him play every day.
Add to that Yorke's and Drohan's excellent starts to the season in the minors, Mayer's continued excellence, and I'm pretty happy with how productive 2023 has been thus far in trying to figure out where we are going in 2024 and beyond.
Yikes. I cannot picture that going well. Struggling starters who succeed tend to only have 1-2 and/or benefit from the boost in velocity they get from going max effort for 15-20 pitches. Kluber doesn't look like either of those to me. He seems like he's either valuable as a starter or not valuable at all.
One other "positive" (I guess?) bit: Chris Sale is having an excellent year against everyone except the Orioles:
2 starts vs Bal: 8 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 6 K, 3 HR, 13.50 ERA
7 other starts: 42.1 IP, 30 H, 10 BB, 56 K, 5 HR, 3.40 ERA
There was some talk at the time about whether Baltimore picked up on him tipping his pitches in some way, as they seemed to be on every one of his pitches. These splits might support that idea. Let's hope they figured out what it was!
I guess I'm believing my lying eyes a little too much but he is very hard to watch. He seems to let a lot of hittable pitches go by and also appears to not have any idea how to hit a breaking pitch. I guess I should take a page out of his book and learn to be patient.
I'm just glad he hasn't been here long enough for us to get attached to. I think he's actually been worse than Brasier.
I thin he will be...but here's the honest answer: I am prepared to give him a ridiculously long leash. I mean, the Red Sox have struggled mightily to put up a league-average player at 1B for several years now, including when they went to the ALCS in 2021.
I mean, Eric Hosmer was actually an upgrade at the trade deadline over what they had.
And the system has absolutely nothing in the pipeline if Casas doesn't work out. On SoxProspects.com, here's the list of all the first basemen-types in the system:
15. Blaze Jordan (a 3B who is getting some time at 1B now as
27. Niko Kavadas (a 24-year-old at AA hitting .236 with some pop)
50. Lyonel James (a 20-year-old in low-A who, like Jordan, is a 3B getting some reps at 1B. He is currently hitting .209)
That's it. Dalbec is the AAA 1B.
If Casas doesn't work out to be at least an above-average hitter and average glove at 1B, it really sets the team's rebuilding plan back. In theory, a guy like Casas should be one of the most reliable types of prospects you can draft and develop - a 1B with a ton of power and patience. He's produced throughout his rise in the minors. He's supposed to be our no-brainer.
I think he will eventually attack hittable pitches earlier in the count, and when he does, good things will happen. But I don't care if he hits .200 with a ton of walks and 15 HRs for the season - we have to just grind through it and hope the projection comes through on the other side, I think.
Bell 95 OPS+, 0 WAR
Myers 49 OPS+, -0.5 WAR
Voit 53 OPS+, -0.2 WAR
Hosmer 67 OPS+, -0.4 WAR
Mervis 56 OPS+, -0.1 WAR
Mancini 89 OPS+, -0.5 WAR
Abreu 47 OPS+, -1.0 WAR (wow!)
CJ Cron 79 OPS+, -0.2 WAR
Y Gurriel 81 OPS+, -0.3 WAR
It seems like 1B should be an easy spot to fill, but for some reason, it hasn't been recently. As for the Red Sox system, Blaze Jordan seems pretty interesting and likely headed from 3B to 1B, but he's a couple years away probably. Kavadas has a shot maybe too. I don't know much about that Dalbec guy, but his numbers look good. I'll check him out.
I think you're right that they have to ride with Dalbec in hopes that he's at least something like a late model Mitch Moreland.
Is this true? I would have thought that a big huge dude drafted out of high school with old player skills would be, generally, a risky type. The no brainers are the college guys with great contact skills and approach, who play middle infield, right?
I love that scene. Especially the next part:
Beane's pausing to acknowledge the crack just kills me. It also just occurred to me that there is no reason for Washington to be at the meeting. The only possible reason for him to be there is help convince Hatteberg that he can teach him, which as Beane must surely have known, was not going to happen. Made for funny dialogue though.
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