BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: The Papelbon Rules: ???

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1. John DiFool2 Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:34 AM (#2512286)

His stuff and velocity looked good to me, only took 9 pitches.

Yeah Tito looks bad if he walks a couple of guys, gives up a bloop, throws 30 pitches, and Timlin has to come in and try to salvage the inning.

2. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:40 AM (#2512312)

Yeah Tito looks bad if he walks a couple of guys, gives up a bloop, throws 30 pitches, and Timlin has to come in and try to salvage the inning.

Tito (or someone) looks bad regardless. This team has very carefully protected Papelbon from this type of workload all year. Why abandon that now? What's the upside?

The only explanation I can think of is that they want to see how he'll respond in case he's needed for such a situation in the postseason. But I think there's a far better chance that they would need him for multiple innings in the postseason, so some 2-3 IP appearances would make a ton more sense.

3. Phil Coorey. Posted: September 05, 2007 at 02:55 AM (#2512335)

I think he cruised against the O's on Sunday with 3 pop fly outs, IIRC and yesterday he was flat out dominant against the Jays.

4. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2512347)

Pap did not pitch on May 23/24 and on May 25, he threw 9 pitches. He threw 15 on the 26th. The following day, in a 2-run game, he was not used.

It's pretty hard to find a lot of cases where he's even been used two days in a row--it's only happened 5 times before the last 3 days.

5. Chip Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:06 AM (#2512349)

I don't think this looks bad at all. He's ended up throwing 32 pitches over three days. And he had just come off a stretch where he had worked only twice in ten days, to the point where they were bringing him into games that were blowouts merely to get work and keep him sharp. So this was about as low stress a way to use him for three straight as could be imagined.

Last year, when he popped the shoulder, he did it on his 53rd or 54th pitch over three days, on the tail end of his biggest workload month of the season: 60 batters faced over 15+ innings in August. This year he only faced 35 batters in August over 9+ innings.

They've really done an excellent job balancing his work by month to keep him healthy and effective. And he was throwing 96 on the NESN gun against his final batter tonight.

What would look bad is if they used him again tomorrow, or only gave him one day off and then used him back-to-back days again.

6. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:14 AM (#2512354)

Last year, when he popped the shoulder, he did it on his 53rd or 54th pitch over three days, on the tail end of his biggest workload month of the season: 60 batters faced over 15+ innings in August. This year he only faced 35 batters in August over 9+ innings.

I can follow this line of thinking, but it's not the one that the Red Sox have followed all year. What changed in the past few days that made them now want to test his limits?

7. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:24 AM (#2512364)

darren, have you taken your meds today?

8. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:26 AM (#2512368)

Why don't you go correct Clay Buchholz's age or something, smart guy.

9. Mister High Standards Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:27 AM (#2512370)

Darren likes to flail at casper. That is what he does. No matter how wonderfully the club has been managed, he always knows more.

The team is 7 up with very few 28 or so games left, he needs to find something knew to whine about. I'm sure next it will be why wasn't Jacoby up earlier. Or how Clay is being used wrong. Or how Papi should have been DL'd. Or whatever. The season, has been a remarkable success in every conceivable. EVERY CONCIEVABLE WAY. But we are in the first week of September, but Darren needs to post what he needs to post. Read it, ignore it and enjoy the good times.

10. Chip Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:30 AM (#2512374)

I can follow this line of thinking, but it's not the one that the Red Sox have followed all year. What changed in the past few days that made them now want to test his limits?

I believe I just explained that they did not test his limits. Which you even quoted. And it doesn't appear that they have any intention of testing his limits. Working three days in a row, in and of itself, is not a limit. Working three high-stress days in a row would be, but there's no evidence they're going to try something that ridiculous "just to see if he could."

11. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2512375)

no need. you guys seem to have it figured out. anyway, i didn't see the game tonight, but papelbon has been used very carefully all season ... which, more than any effort by management, was made possible by getting a decent bullpen behind him. 3 easy games in a row won't kill him and 2 easy games and a hard game wouldn't have killed him. also, i think it's obvious that it's more important to look at how his stuff is holding up and whether there are signs that he's tiring than just to set rules on when he can and can't pitch.

12. konaforever Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2512376)

The team is 7 up with very few 28 or so games left

23 games to be exact.

13. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:34 AM (#2512377)

MHS, I'm sorry that you find the content on Sox Therapy not to your liking. Maybe you could give me some pointers based on your work over the Baseball Quote Blog. For example, how do you manage to write such interesting posts so often? Doesn't it get difficult to come up with new material for that paragraph you put together each year?

14. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:34 AM (#2512378)

I'm sure next it will be why wasn't Jacoby up earlier. Or how Clay is being used wrong.

ya know, i might sign up for those. i think it's been obvious for a while he was better than lester, and if he had been up the whole time, he may have had a stranglehold ont he #3 spot by now. wasn't it you that said the last month should be a tryout of sorts for clay?

and ellsbury is a stud. he needs to play--and crisp has reverted to april/may form.

15. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2512383)

ya know, i might sign up for those. i think it's been obvious for a while he was better than lester, and if he had been up the whole time, he may have had a stranglehold ont he #3 spot by now. wasn't it you that said the last month should be a tryout of sorts for clay?

and ellsbury is a stud. he needs to play--and crisp has reverted to april/may form.

Hey, are you off your meds? Why are you flailing at casper? Hey, you're a negative idiot. How dare you question the Red Sox management!

16. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:40 AM (#2512385)

chill, darren. i'm just kidding around a bit. don't be so sensitive.

17. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:41 AM (#2512387)

You're sensitive!

18. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:42 AM (#2512389)

your mom's sensitive. oh snap!

19. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:45 AM (#2512392)

You know, I was going to go the Mom route earlier and say "I gave my medication to your mom." But it didn't have much of a ring to it.

FWIW, I just looked back and something like 10 of the last 12 Sox Therapy threads have been positive in subject matter. But the uproar in response to anything remotely negative is always exciting.

20. konaforever Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2512394)

Looks like Buchholz is in the pen for now.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3004847

21. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:47 AM (#2512396)

Your mom's in the pen for now!

Ah crap, that didn't work either.

22. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:48 AM (#2512397)

Your mom's in the pen for now!

Ah crap, that didn't work either.

i think you got it backwards.

23. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:49 AM (#2512399)

Looks like Buchholz is in the pen for now.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3004847

not a fan. he has a long track record of being shaky at the start and getting stronger as the game progresses. i kinda doubt he's going to give us much out of the pen.

24. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:50 AM (#2512400)

seriously. he just threw a ####### no hitter. let the kid start again! srsly

25. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:51 AM (#2512401)

Agreed on that. But the alternative is to give him 1-2 more starts. At least this way there's a chance he could contribute to the postseason. Right?

Oh, and your mom's not a fan. she has a long track record of being shaky at the start and getting stronger as the game progresses. your mom kinda doubts he's going to give us much out of the pen!

26. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:52 AM (#2512402)

Agreed on that. But the alternative is to give him 1-2 more starts. At least this way there's a chance he could contribute to the postseason. Right?

no. you throw the ####### innings limit out the window.

27. Darren

Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:54 AM (#2512403)

Let's throw your mom out the window.

28. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:54 AM (#2512404)

schilling do press conferences after his starts? i'd like somebody to ask him what it's like to battle a rookie for the last spot in the playoff rotation. hey you know what? schilling's actually got experience pitching in relief! maybe i'm on to something!!!

29. covelli chris p Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:55 AM (#2512405)

Let's throw your mom out the window.

let's not and say we did.

30. McLovin Posted: September 05, 2007 at 04:45 AM (#2512441)

This guy and his fake mean face are on pace to throw 58 innings this year. Has he been on the DL this season? No. That's just ####### pathetic. What a waste of a pitcher. I can't wait for him to get bombed in the playoffs cause he can't even remember how to hold the baseball.

Maybe you could give me some pointers based on your work over the Baseball Quote Blog. For example, how do you manage to write such interesting posts so often? Doesn't it get difficult to come up with new material for that paragraph you put together each year?

Zing!

But you don't give him enough credit. He has had TWO entries in the past year, both of MULTIPLE paragraphs, and ONE even introducing a brand new bullshit stat!

31. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 05, 2007 at 04:49 AM (#2512442)

At least we know it's not permanent, unlike Yankee fans with Joba, who may be missing out on the next Clemens for the next Rivera instead--NOT a good trade!

32. Dan Posted: September 05, 2007 at 05:11 AM (#2512454)

At least we know it's not permanent, unlike Yankee fans with Joba, who may be missing out on the next Clemens for the next Rivera instead--NOT a good trade!

This is different from the Red Sox usage of Papelbon, how?

33. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 05, 2007 at 05:26 AM (#2512459)

There's a pissing test and I wasn't invited?

Bastards.

34. Phil Coorey. Posted: September 05, 2007 at 05:30 AM (#2512465)

I figure Schilling will be good in the post season. I mean Jeff Weaver tripped over himself and won a few post season starts as well, last year.

35. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 05, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2512474)

It's not, alas, but they've already got Papelbon as the "closer," so they don't "need" to do it to Buchholz.

36. Lassus Posted: September 05, 2007 at 06:15 AM (#2512487)

As someone who had Buchholz for his first start, had to drop him because the Sox were jerking him around, then picked him back up after the no-hitter he wasn't supposed to start, and now hear he's going back to the pen, I would like to throttle Theo and Francona.

Outside of thinking of me - which should be their primary concern - they're really going to move a kid who could be their top two starter to the pen so he's not ready for the playoffs? This bodes poorly, in my objective (as a mets fan) opinion.

37. TomH Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:24 PM (#2512732)

They do NOT believe he would be their #2 starter. Playoff rotation is Beckett, DiceK, Schilling if healthy, Wake if healthy. Buchholz would be next.

Now, if they were stuck with the YANKEES or TIGERS rotation... :)

38. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2512742)

Buchholz needs to be in the rotation right frakking now. And he should be the 5th starter in the playoffs (if it comes to that) if necessary. It allows Lester to be put in the mopup/LOOGY role, so with Buchholz you can get rid of Lopez and one of Tavarez/Snyder, and put an extra bat (MOSS!!!) in the playoffs.

I've already written Jacoby in the playoff roster. If we make the playoffs.

39. Chip Posted: September 05, 2007 at 03:42 PM (#2512756)

He said "5th starter" and "playoffs" in the same sentence. Hee hee!

Beckett joked last night that with the new, drawn-out playoff schedule that will have the World Series played "sometime in January," a team could probably get through with only two starters.

40. Mister High Standards Posted: September 05, 2007 at 04:02 PM (#2512786)

But you don't give him enough credit. He has had TWO entries in the past year, both of MULTIPLE paragraphs, and ONE even introducing a brand new ######## stat!

No keys. Oh by the way, your movie ####### blew. It lived up to the title, super bad.

41. Dave Cyprian Posted: September 05, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2512914)

Darren - The Papelbon situation isn't so mysterious in my opinion. Sox were geniunely afraid that his arm might fall off after another year of being a reliever. Terrified. Thats why they sort of wanted him to be a starter. And they baby him. But now Papelbon is telling everyone he feels strong and great, he is supposedly on a better plan to keep the arm strong, and now the kid gloves come off. I hope they do use him more heavily for the rest of the year, and repeat the same thing next year.

42. villageidiom Posted: September 06, 2007 at 12:46 AM (#2513472)

I think if you're going to ask why they're not babying Papelbon now when they've been babying him all year, you first need to ask why they've been babying him all year. And I think they babied him all year because they wanted him to be healthy and fresh for this time of year. That doesn't mean they should put him out there every night, for 30+ pitches each time; but three straight days, with the first two not being particularly taxing, sure.

43. yakyutoo Posted: September 06, 2007 at 01:10 AM (#2513525)

And I think they babied him all year because they wanted him to be healthy and fresh for this time of year.

You're right. Epstein pretty much confirmed this in the NESN pregame interview.

44. The Piehole of David Wells

Posted: September 06, 2007 at 01:17 AM (#2513538)

if you watched the nesn pregame show, theo explained that it was an organization decision. paps asked to go 3 in a row, and it's something they've been working toward. my guess is that they realize that he might have to go 3 in a row in the playoffs or something.

45. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: September 06, 2007 at 01:39 AM (#2513569)

You guys are a bunch of hosers. Take off, eh!

Sorry, I'm in Canada this week and the CBC had a Strange Brew 24th anniversary documentary last night. 24th! A documentary!

Also, if the most beautiful woman you've ever seen was working bar at an establishment you were visiting, but she could barely speak english and you could barely speak french, how would you go about banging her?

46. McLovin Posted: September 06, 2007 at 02:17 AM (#2513620)

Rape?

47. His Clutchness, The Just Pasha Diving Jeter Posted: September 06, 2007 at 02:20 AM (#2513624)

Hire me to seduce her, then introduce you as my love guru.

48. Darren

Posted: September 06, 2007 at 03:20 AM (#2513664)

I think if you're going to ask why they're not babying Papelbon now when they've been babying him all year, you first need to ask why they've been babying him all year. And I think they babied him all year because they wanted him to be healthy and fresh for this time of year.

Maybe they babied him all year so he'd be healthy and fresh in the playoffs. But I doubt they babied him all year so that he could be healthy and fresh now. Because right now, all of their other actions indicate that they consider the games they are playing fairly meaningless. To wit, Brian Corey was brought in with a 1-run lead tonight. Dustin Pedroia was sat down in the middle of a torrid hot streak. These are not the actions of a team that considers the games crucial in any way.

if you watched the nesn pregame show, theo explained that it was an organization decision. paps asked to go 3 in a row, and it's something they've been working toward. my guess is that they realize that he might have to go 3 in a row in the playoffs or something.

Tito explicitly said that it had nothing to do with Paps asking to pitch that night. On the latter point, as I stated above, I think it's far more likely that he goes for longer outings in the playoffs than going 3 days in a row. The former could be useful in any game, the latter is only useful if the three middle games of a series are close.

I agree though, that they may be trying it out in order to prepare for the playoffs. I'm just not entirely convinced that it's necessary.

49. Joel W Posted: September 06, 2007 at 04:35 AM (#2513685)

These games are close to meaningless. There are 22 games left and they've got 84 wins. 91 probably gets them into the playoffs, and I think they'll make it there. Get me Manny healthy, get me the rotation lined up, maybe sit Papi if possible in a couple weeks, and just make a run in the playoffs.

50. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 06, 2007 at 11:34 AM (#2513753)

Ugh Okajima today.
91 probably gets them into the playoffs

You meant 95

51. Joel W Posted: September 06, 2007 at 05:06 PM (#2514090)

You think they need 95 wins to make the playoffs? Really?

52. Darren

Posted: September 08, 2007 at 03:12 AM (#2516270)

Pap has looked great with more work, so this change in philosophy seems to have worked out pretty well. In fact, he's looked great for about the last 3 months. Since giving up the HR to ARod, he's thrown 30 g, 30 IP, 11 H, 2 HR, 5 BB, 47 K, 1.20 ERA. During that span, opposing batters are putting up a line of .110 .183 .180. He's been virtually automatic.

53. Joel W Posted: September 08, 2007 at 04:36 PM (#2516507)

God Darren, with all the Joba love that I hear on TV, you'd think we didn't have a closer who is striking out 14 batters per nine over the last month while putting up a 9:1 K/BB. That line is just so sick.

54. Darren

Posted: September 08, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2516568)

The Joba thing makes me sick. It's not just that the guy started the year in A ball and they decided to install him as their setup man in the middle of a pennant race. It's that he has been absolutely perfect in that role. He hasn't faltered even once.

55. Russ Posted: September 14, 2007 at 11:10 AM (#2523901)

The Joba thing makes me sick. It's not just that the guy started the year in A ball and they decided to install him as their setup man in the middle of a pennant race.

But it IS mostly that. If he had flamed out, they would have said "oh well, back to the minors with you". If you don't take chances, you can never be surprised. I've always felt that teams were too cautious with their young players. The Yankees are handling Chamberlain perfectly. He's learning how to pitch to major league hitters, but only in short, very regulated stints so as to protect his arm and his ego (because no one gets to see him twice in a game). It takes confidence to do that and this is something that Cashman does not lack.

56. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:03 AM (#2530913)

I haven't been paying a ton of attention. I know Okajima is unavailable. Is Papelbon similar? Because i think bases loaded in a one-run game with two outs in the eighth, when the current pitcher is ridiculously obviously gassed, might call for your closer.

I think I've established pretty well around here that I don't blame the manager for much of anything. This loss is on Tito. WTF is Ellsbury doing against a lefty with the game on the line and Kielty and Coco on the bench?

2 point ####### 5. ####### fuck this. I'm too ####### busy right now for this ####### ####.

57. Xander Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:06 AM (#2530925)

What a ####### disgrace

58. covelli chris p Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:16 AM (#2530950)

has there ever been a trade deadline acquisition provide as much of a NEGATIVE impact as eric gagne? at least larry anderson actually pitched well.

59. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:18 AM (#2530959)

Unless Kason Gabbard goes on a multi-state killing spree while wearing his Ranger uniform, the Gagne trade has the potential to go down as the worst deadline deal ever. ####### brutal.

60. tfbg9 Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:19 AM (#2530964)

Get your money ready kevin!

If Gagne ever pitches another meaningful inning with the Sox this season...

61. tfbg9 Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:23 AM (#2530979)

I wanted the Dye trade to be made.

62. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2531025)

Get your money ready kevin!

For those of us on the sidelines who missed the wager, can someone recap it for us?

63. Textbook Editor Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:40 AM (#2531030)

I think--think--that the WC magic # is now 4 with the Tigers loss tonight. If we went 3-7, the Tigers would have to go 10-0 just to force a 1-game playoff, which I think means the magic # would be 4. So if we can just win 4 !@##$ing games we'll at least be the WC. And then we can collapse and let Gagne pitch multiple innings 5 days in a row so his mother-####### arm falls off.

64. tfbg9 Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2531063)

For those of us on the sidelines who missed the wager, can someone recap it for us?

Go to the end of tonight's Sox Game Chatter, and you'll see.

65. Darren

Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:55 AM (#2531068)

Guys I started a new thread on this lunacy. Move it over there. And if you see any of the optimists, send them that way too. I can't wait to hear their take.

66. Textbook Editor Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:56 AM (#2531071)

Really, my only solace now is that the Mets' collapse could cost them the playoffs, while at least we'd make the playoffs... therefore the Mets' collapse would probably be remembered more that our pathetic puny failure to win the division.

67. tfbg9 Posted: September 19, 2007 at 02:57 AM (#2531078)

Nobody harps on the fact that the Tigers had to settle for the WC last year.

68. Darren

Posted: September 19, 2007 at 03:02 AM (#2531093)

Really, my only solace now is that the Mets' collapse could cost them the playoffs, while at least we'd make the playoffs... therefore the Mets' collapse would probably be remembered more that our pathetic puny failure to win the division.

Not by me. I don't give a crap if the Mets collapse. They never had a 14.5 game lead. They didn't constantly choose to use inferior players while a $200 mil. juggernaut lapped at their heels.

69. Darren

Posted: September 19, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2531130)

From MHS upthread:

Darren likes to flail at casper. That is what he does. No matter how wonderfully the club has been managed, he always knows more.

The team is 7 up with very few 28 or so games left, he needs to find something knew to whine about. I'm sure next it will be why wasn't Jacoby up earlier. Or how Clay is being used wrong. Or how Papi should have been DL'd. Or whatever. The season, has been a remarkable success in every conceivable. EVERY CONCIEVABLE WAY. But we are in the first week of September, but Darren needs to post what he needs to post. Read it, ignore it and enjoy the good times.

Wonderfully managed. Good stuff.

70. Chip Posted: September 19, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2531252)

The Papelbon Rules: ???

"Rules? In a knife fight?"

71. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 19, 2007 at 05:37 AM (#2531545)

Wonderfully managed. Good stuff.

I'd like to take my foot and put it up his wonderfully managed ass.

72. Darren

Posted: October 30, 2007 at 01:37 AM (#2599528)

Just as a follow up on how right I was that the Red Sox needed to be preparing Pap for longer outings rather than preparing him for 3 consecutive outings:

Number of time Pap pitched 3 straight days this postseason: 0.
Number of times he pitched more than 1 IP: 6.

In fact, he only pitched 2 days in a row once.

73. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 30, 2007 at 01:42 AM (#2599537)

Number of time Pap pitched 3 straight days this postseason: 0.
Number of times he pitched more than 1 IP: 6

Because there were all those offdays built-in, plus a couple of offensive blowouts helped. Papelbon was taxed for 1 game in the ALDS, 2 in the ALCS, and 3 in the WS.

74. Darren

Posted: October 30, 2007 at 02:06 AM (#2599570)

The off-days were foreseeable. And they could have also foreseen that they would want to use him for multiple innings.

75. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 31, 2007 at 02:11 AM (#2600877)

You think they need 95 wins to make the playoffs? Really?

The WC tea had 94 wins. So yes, we needed 95.

HA

76. PJ Martinez Posted: October 31, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2600925)

If I read the standings correctly, 89 wins would have been enough.

New York would have taken the East.

Maybe "HA" means "just kidding"?

77. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 31, 2007 at 02:43 AM (#2600929)

Are you arguing we would have been better off with the Wild Card?

78. Darren

Posted: October 31, 2007 at 03:20 AM (#2600990)

I think he's saying that you don't know how to read.

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