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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Monday, February 20, 2023The RostahWell, baseball is back soon and it is time to start trying to figure out who the 2023 Boston Red Sox will be. To say this team is a bit unsettled is an understatement but moves and options should help us pull things together a bit. Of course a lot of unknowns remain. There will be injuries and someone will show up at camp and dazzle us then go 1 for 19 and never be heard from again. Let’s take a look at our expectations for the March 30th team; INFIELD: Triston Casas, Christian Arroyo, Kiké Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Niko Goodrum, Yu Chang With Mondesi likely to start the year on the IL I think Chang has the inside track as a glove first defender with Goodrum providing some necessary versatility. OUTFIELD: Masataka Yoshida, Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Rob Refsnyder, Raimel Tapia Tapia, Refsnyder and Duran are three guys for two spots probably. It’s not out of the question that the Sox go with thirteen position players and thirteen pitchers (ugh) which puts Goodrum and Chang into the mix with it being a five for three situation. Rafaela seems to be on people’s wishlist as a dream player to start the year but he’s not ready. As good as he was in the minors last year he’s a guy with dicey plate discipline who needs at bats. Right now he looks like a potential JBJ type with elite speed but the Sox will do well to see if he can develop as a hitter. CATCHER: Reese McGuire, Jorge Alfaro Wong probably gets the boot by virtue of having an option remaining with Alfaro the likeliest guy to meet the “1 for 19 then never heard from again” qualification. I assume Wong will get some work at other spots as the Sox try to make him a Swihart style utility player that could put him into that mix with everyone else. DH: Justin Turner Just like the David Ortiz and JD Martinez days DH is settled! OK, not quite like those guys but Turner is the DH and could see time at first and/or third base as the year progresses. Side note: the Sox again are making a mistake on the their numbering. Turner should not be wearing number 2 nor should anyone else ever again. It’s shades of Terry Francona’s 47, that’s two numbers that need to be on the right field facade. OK, everyone breathe cause now it gets tricky; STARTERS: Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock I read a preview that had Paxton ahead of Pivetta and he probably is. The likelihood of Paxton and Sale being healthy at the same time just feels remote. Someone from that group of six guys will be on the IL, I’d be shocked if that wasn’t the case. If everyone is healthy that’s a good problem and Pivetta probably goes to the bullpen. RELIEVERS: Kelley Jansen, Chris Martin, John Schreiber, Tanner Houck, Ryan Brasier, Richard Bleier, Joely Rodriguez Look, this is a huge shrug here. Kelly probably has the inside track on being the 8th reliever if the Sox go 13/13. I think the bullpen improvement is under appreciated. The Sox had a bunch of costly losses in the early part of 2022 that sunk the season (seemed like in Toronto especially). If Jansen and Martin in particular are as good as expected Lots has been made about Jansen dealing with the pitch clock. Trying to guess at what impact that will have is a virtual impossibility. Obviously he is very good and the Sox need him to adjust. Apparently his desire to work on that is why he is skipping the clock-free World Baseball Classic. A lot will change between now and Opening Day. I would be surprised if the Sox made any meaningful moves. Bobby Dalbec and/or Jarren Duran getting moved seems like a possibility to me. I read somewhere the Sox were going to work Duran at second base a bit (his original position). I think this can be an interesting if not particularly successful season. It will be interesting to see how the roster shakes out between now and Opening Day. As always it should be fun to see what obvious guy I left out. Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: February 20, 2023 at 04:03 PM | 171 comment(s)
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I can't picture a world in which he can't adjust. I see it like a little-leaguer who moves on to Babe Ruth league or whatever and on a base hit simply stops running at 60 feet because that's where he's used to the base being. It's incredibly absurd to think he can't adjust. Now, whether his performance won't be affected we won't know - but that's true of every pitcher who has ever taken their time on occasion, which is every pitcher.
Ah yes, the ever elusive Brock Holt lite. Every team needs that one sub-80 OPS+ guy that isn't really good at any position, but man, they LOOK like they should be a ball player.
This offense is going to suck. The starting pitching will be injured and shitty. The defense will be barely acceptable. And as always, I have no clue how the pen will be, although I would wager there's a solid 75% chance Jansen is not the closer by the trade deadline (and yes, the Sox will be carrying dead money on his contract next year). SUPER EXCITED! LETS GO SOX!
Actually, the sausage vendors outside of the stadium are fantastic. At least they were a few years ago, haven't been to a game in a while.
LOL. We seem to have a lot of them. :) The important things to remember about having a Brock Holt lite is that he was already a lite version of Ben Zobrist. So if lite is a beer analogy, Zobrist was Sam Adams, Holt was Sam Adams lite, and and a lite version of that would be... mello yello?
If Paxton is at any point this year in any way pitching better than Pivetta, I will be ecstatic. I had previously been assuming he'll either be hurt or he's healthy and is diminished enough that a 1 year/$4 mil deal looked good to him. Paxton as a passable #3-4 starter would be amazing.
To me, interesting means watching:
-Casas develop as a big leaguer
- Bello and Whitlock in the rotation all year
- Houck throwing a lot of innings
- Mata pitch in the bigs in 2023
- Yoshida: Is he a key part of the next great Red Sox team?
- Rafaela: Does he make the big leagues this year? If he does, I want to see him play everyday to figure out what we've got.
- The minors: Does Mayer keep marching towards the big leagues? Does Yorke get back on track? How about Bleis? Do any of the AAA pitchers among Walter, Winckowski, Murphy or Crawford have a legit major-league future? Are either David Hamilton or Enmanuel Valdez part of the future?
I agree that the Bosox seem to look for versatile players, maybe because the team always seems to have several black hole positions. However, Holt is a poor example - Boston would love to have a player like the Brock Holt that played for them. His career OPS was 88 and was 92 for Boston where he had 84% of his PA. (BBRef.) Not a slugger but better than the quoted language. That same source also rates Holt as a plus defender overall, though positional breakouts might show some weak spots.
I agree, that's why I called him Brock Holt lite. As in, worse than Holt. All snark aside, every team can benefit from a player like Holt. Cheap, versatile, not terrible with the bat, seemingly liked by all, and has the potential to be an All Star. Just need to know when to cut bait on them.
- Seeing what Mondesi is if he stays somewhat healthy
- Is Verdugo a good/very good player or has he settled into mediocrity?
- Will Devlin Granberg be as good as Daniel Nava or better?
- More specifically on Yoshida, what exactly will his game translate into? Will he have 20 HR power? 40 doubles? Will he a be a .300 hitter? How much will he walk and strike out?
Yeah, you're right. I guess one way they could have 'pursued him more hotly' (as the expression goes) would be to offer him the starting job.
- The Bruins are expected to go deep into the NHL playoffs (which run from April 17th to as late as June 18th this year)
- The Celtics are also expected to go deep into the playoffs (which run from April 11th to as late as June 18th this year)
- The Patriots' first game will be in early September.
I mean, it is entirely possible that most sports fans up here will get locked into the NBA and NHL playoffs until mid-June, and then will be locked into the Patriots by late August. That will leave a window of 2+ months for the Red Sox to own the bandwidth. They'll be about 60 games into the season by then. If they are 27-33, 8 GB by then, it is going to be really easy to just head to the beach for July and August, and put the sports focus back on when the NFL gets going.
If the SP can pitch to their potential, they'll be a .500 team. I'll take that.
Hernandez being freed up also then gives you a back up for CF, a position he has at least proven he can handle defensively - something everyone is sort of ignoring at the moment. The Sox currently don't have a CF on the roster. Duvall is 34 and has 75 games there in his career, Durran has not shown the instincts to play there, and Ceddane is an unknown. Up until last year the Sox have had a really solid run at CF over the past decade or so, might not have been a position of strength, but they were at least middle/top of the AL by team WAA. Then came last year, and the team sucked.
If the team isn't going to have top end talent then they need to be solid at every position AND have solid back ups for the inevitable injury to a starter. Right now, they don't have quality depth, if one person goes down, they are done. And if you have to put Christian Arroyo on the bench to sign Andrus, then you do it.
I have no idea what the team is thinking (even as Spring Training begins, which seems like a bad thing!). That said, if management thinks this team is likely not going to be a contender, then they really need to use 2023 to get as much "data" as they can on the players they already have - particularly the ones who could theoretically be a part of the team's future if they pan out.
To that end, this has to be the year that the team decides whether or not Christian Arroyo has a future with the Red Sox. They have handed him an everyday job at second base on a platter. To jacksone's point, they could have easily signed Andrus to a 1 year, $5m deal, but they didn't - it is Arroyo's job to lose.
In terms of the lineup, I feel like Opening Day will likely include several guys that are auditioning for long-term relevance with the Red Sox: McGuire, Casas, Arroyo, Verdugo, and Yoshida.
There is one guy on the team who is definitely part of the future of the team: Devers
Then, the rest of the guys are here to keep the spot warm until the team is good again: Turner, Hernandez, Duvall
If Verdugo gives the team another year like the last two years, then they need to trade him after 2023. He will make too much money to be taking up oxygen on the team as a not-so-young-anymore, not-cheap-anymore, below-average defensive OF, slightly above average hitter. I'm not optimistic.
McGuire and Arroyo are cheap players who are still young enough to be a part of a winning team in the future. McGuire, in particular, is at least a really good backup catcher on an excellent team. He may be better than that.
Casas and Yoshida really must pan out as above-average players for Bloom to have a job next year at this time. The gap between Devers and everybody else - if these two guys don't pan out in 2023 - is going to be enormous. It is so maddening that the 2018 Red Sox fell to this point so quickly.
On Sunday at Encore, their Wins over/under is up to 77.5, after being 76.5 two weeks earlier - things are trending up!
The biggest question mark on this team is the top of the rotation's health. So far, it's healthy, which is a better place than I thought we'd be at this point.
This was just mean, regarding Casas: "He struggles with softer stuff in the bottom of the strike zone, and his in-zone and overall contact rates in 2022 were 78% and 70% respectively, an area similar to Nolan Gorman, Franchy Cordero, Bobby Dalbec and others who have tantalizing power but have sometimes been frustrating big league hitters."
I am not sure I understand your thinking here. The team finished with 78 wins last year, 8 games out of the WC. You agree they have not had a great off season, but you think they are going to improve by 6 games or so?
If the team wanted to go full youth and say we're taking a year to see what we've got, fine, that could be fun, because they do have an ownership that's proven it will spend to win. But the org seems to be acting like business as usual, trying to get in the playoffs, and then misses out on signing a very cheap piece that could get them a win or two to really actually push them there. It's confusing, and seems like there's no clear directive. That's what bugs me more than anything.
Yeah, I guess I didn't explain that very well, probably in part because I have conflicted feelings about it. My thinking is that if it were me, I would have done things quite differently. Obviously, I would have liked them to lock up Bogaerts before 2022 if possible. After the season, with all of that money to spend, I wanted them to lock down some top-end talent. Rodon in the rotation, Nimmo in CF, maybe even Swanson at SS. I would not have had any interest in Jansen for 2/32. So I didn't like what they did. However, looking at the team now, I feel better than I thought I would about their chances. And there's a chance that they are doing things that we don't yet understand.
I would have been pretty upset with them if they went full youth movement. They've had a couple years to reset the tax and clear dead payroll. Now was the time for them to invest and compete in earnest.
noah song was just discharged from the navy
Well that's just great. I can't imagine they'll be able to keep him on the big league roster all year, but who knows?
In the accompanying chat, Eric says: "He was a 45+ on the Int’l board, industry consensus is Boston overpayed. Don’t think he sucks just think the impact is limited. Would happily be proven wrong, he’s been on the site’s radar for a while because he’s a super fun player."
45+ is just outside the list I would guess.
I've seen in a few places that if the Phillies cut him, he has to pass through waivers before being returned. Is that true? I had never heard that. (Edit: Looked it up, he does have to pass through waivers.)
You must be joking. Everything has to fall in place for them to be a .500 team, and everything falling into place doesn't happen very often.
Are we going to repeat last year's silliness?
Last year it was almost the opposite of everything falling into place, and they still almost got .500.
I'd extend back to 2021 as well. 2021 and 2022 teams seemed fairly similar on paper. A lot went right in 2021 and they won 92 games. A lot went wrong last year and they won 78. The 2023 team looks to be in a similar place to me, perhaps a tick below these two.
The loss of Bogaerts is huge. Mondesi, as the replacement? Ugh.
It's a really interesting balance to the scouting lists. Red Sox again have 4 in the top 50:
Yoshida 12
Casas 35
Mayer 41
Rafaela 45
The big difference here is obviously Yoshida clocking in at 12 and Bleis not makinng the top 100. Yoshida is going to be one of the most interesting players to watch this year!
Some other really interesting players in the list, do check it out.
I'm usually pretty good at being optimistic but I think this off-season just had too many teams making moves I wished the Sox would make, while the Sox made moves that the Oakland A's would make . . .
Of course there is a baseball game being played today! Even if it is against Northeastern, it is still baseball and that is a good thing. That alone is lifting my spirits and getting me hopeful about 2023.
I have nothing of value to contribute to this thread and thus appreciate those of you who do!
I'm curious why? Was it Mayer being ranked the 13th SS prospect? As Dan explains, there's a really good reason for that. The best defensive prospects haven't been moved off of SS (yet), whereas 3B, 2B, 1B, corner OF, etc, all contain players who have been.
Two of the moves I most wanted the Sox to make were to sign Martin and Yoshida, so early on, things were looking up! Of course, there was a bunch of other stuff I wanted too, and none of that happened.
Wheeeeee!
I can't wait to see the column that looks back at the season to see how the projections mirrored reality.
Actually, I've never seen one. Every year, there are projections. Never a scorecard. BIG SHRUG.
*It is, however, not cool to mock that contract and then adjust your opinion based on it. Not sure if that's exactly the case here.
Wheeeeee!
I can't wait to see the column that looks back at the season to see how the projections mirrored reality.
Actually, I've never seen one. Every year, there are projections. Never a scorecard. BIG SHRUG.
Wheeeeee!
I can't wait to see the column that looks back at the season to see how the projections mirrored reality.
Actually, I've never seen one. Every year, there are projections. Never a scorecard. BIG SHRUG.
edit..I *think* I found a retrospective, in the Fangraphs article. If I'm interpreting it correctly, it's a jumble of hits and misses. "ZiPS" seems to be the sound darts make as they whiz by toward their target.
Oh well. Everyone needs a hobby. Have fun storming the castle!
They do this all the time. You can find the looks back as well as information about how accurate they are.
As soon as there are games on the radio I'm sure my outlook will be sunnier!
I'm with you . . . except I can't find my rose-tinted glasses to make the last sentence really *work* for me. Hopefully some players will enter spring training in the best shape of their lives ;-) and the pitching staff holds together.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1628751700478595073
A 78 win team only has to improve by 3 games to get to .500. An improvement like Yoshida could bring say 2 WAR right there.
how many prospects do you expect the average MLB team to have between 100 and 200?
They're a .500 team with a .500 (so to speak) farm system. I'd prefer at least one of those to be higher - understand it's typically at the expense of the other. This could be a solid team, but it seems like it has a relatively low ceiling unless I'm missing hidden upside. Hopefully it's more a matter of the floor also being high!
They lost Bogaerts.
Another case of poor wording on my part. It was supposed convey 4 in the top 50 and "only 3" between 50 and 200, which would support the top-heavy case. But that was some really sloppy wording.
Yes, exactly. A purely average system would have a #15 or #16 for its number 1 prospect, then another 30 places behind that, etc. Here's how the Red Sox stack up:
#1 Prospect - Avg Tm: #15.5, Red Sox #12
#2 Prospect - Avg Tm: #45.5, Red Sox #35
#3 Prospect - Avg Tm: #75.5, Red Sox #41
#4 Prospect - Avg Tm: #105.5, Red Sox #48
#5 Prospect - Avg Tm: #135.5, Red Sox between 100 and 200
#6 Prospect - Avg Tm: #165.5, Red Sox between 100 and 200
#7 Prospect - Avg Tm: #195.5, Red Sox between 100 and 200
That is a really good looking system and I hope my "top-heavy" description didn't make it sound like I thought otherwise.
Wow. If he's anything near a 70 power, he's one hell of a hitter. Is anyone else, other than his completely impartial hitting coach, saying this?
I was gonna make a snarky comment about the Tooth Fairy and Santa Claus, but then I saw your comment in 75.
This team's potential ranges from historically bad to mediocre. If they come in third in the division there should be celebrations.
Go Bruins! Go Celtics!
I think the offense will be weak and boring. Devers may draw 150 BBs.
The problem with projecting 2023 over 2022 is shortstop. Bogaerts was at 5.8 WAR in 2022. Can you really expect his replacement(s) to much exceed 2 WAR in 2023? And Vazquez and McGuire were quite good at C for them in 2022 (combined for 3.1 WAR between them with Boston). Now, Plawecki was so bad that it brough down the catching position to about 2 WAR, overall, but still - McGuire and Wong will have to be pretty good to match 2022 at catcher.
Even if Casas and Yoshida are a lot better than the PAs they're taking from last year's crap in OF and 1B, they'll have to be something like 3.5 WAR ahead of 2022 at those positions just to make up for the loss of Bogaerts at SS.
And the Pyth W/L for the team last year was not 78-84...it was 76-86. They actually had slightly above-average luck to get to 78 wins! Seriously, though...if you believe, like I do, that the 2022 WAR of C, 1B, SS, and RF will roughly equal the 2023 WAR of C, 1B, SS, and Yoshida, and if the team was a 76-to-78 -win team last year, and if you believe the team will be significantly better in 2023...then where does the significant improvement come from in 2023?
I came to post for different reasons. I’ll be seeing two games in Fort Myers (the 10th and 15th) as well as the DR-Nicaragua WBC game in Miami on the 13th. If there are any players people want reports on including minor leaguers let me know. The regulars won’t be there largely because of the WBC but I’m looking forward to seeing some of the kids on the back fields and the WBC game should be fun also. Marlins Park or whatever it’s called is also a new addition to my list of stadiums I’ve attended games in. So if people have particular players they are curious about give me a shout.
Unless Verdugo goes nuts, or Whitlock suddenly becomes a Cy Young candidate as a starter or something, this probably makes the most sense. I looked at the possibility of "addition by subtraction" - simply replacing players with negative value with players who are at least not hurting you. There is that opportunity in the bullpen, and the back of the rotation. The WAR of various pitchers for Boston in 2022:
Seabold -1.0
Darwinzon Hernandez -0.9
Robles -0.8
Brasier -0.8
Ort -0.4
Austin Davis -0.4
Winckowski -0.3
German -0.3
Valdez -0.1
Familia -0.1
Danish -0.1
That's about -5.1 WAR, most of that bullpen innings. Now, they've also lost Wacha, Eovaldi, and Hill, who combined for 5.7 WAR, so (not unlike Casas and Yoshida needing to replace Bogaert's lost production just to get back to even) the team needs some starters to step and stay healthy.
Which brings us back to the fundamental problem with the Red Sox in the short term: They are entering their third straight year of trying to plug in a lot of holes with short-term deals with veterans, who often are pitchers available for short-term deals because of their injury history. They are trying to triage this until the farm system can start filling in holes.
This year, they hope to solve 1B with Casas, one OF slot with Yoshida, and decided to pony up to solve 3B for a long time. Late this year, they'd like to put Rafaela in CF. They hope Bello and Whitlock will solve two rotation spots for a long time. Guys like Mayer and Blais give the promise of premium, cheap solutions at SS and LF. They thought Verdugo would be part of a long-term vision...but that is feeling increasingly unlikely.
The single-biggest problem right now for the team is that they are paying an ace $30m a year to not pitch. Chris Sale made $30m last year to give them no WAR, and a couple of innings. They are trying to clear out the contracts, and get below the luxury tax, avoid long-term financial commitments at many positions...all while dragging along the albatross that is Chris Sale's contract.
So for $360 you get a year of NESN and $250 worth of tickets of your choice? That sounds decent, especially if you're planning to attend at least one game anyway.
The 2018 Sox paid Sandoval $18M to not be on the team, paid Pedroia $16M for 3 games, and paid Hanley Ramirez $22.75M for 44 games (.1 WAR).
They also paid Betts $10M for 10 WAR, Sale $12.5M for 6.4 WAR, Xander $7M for 5 WAR, and Benintendi $.64M for 4.8 WAR. Point being, you can easily make up for dead weight on the roster if you have guys significantly outperform their cost.
Who are the prime candidates to do that on the '23 Sox? Casas for sure, Verdugo & McGuire could, and I guess a few of the pitchers - Whitlock, Pivetta, Paxton, & Bello.
Of course, you can get away with throwing a lot of money away if you can do one or both of two things:
1) Just don't give a #### about the money, and spend whatever you need. After all, it is not a salary cap; it is a tax.
2) Hit on a lot of young talent before they start making big money. Betts, JBJ, Benintendi - that was a wonderful outfield, and it was all homegrown, and under team control. They got Sale before he would have been a free agent, but to do so, they had to trade premium young talent (Moncada and Kopech) - which they did. Also, Devers was making nothing, and was their regular at 3B.
The reason the Kansas City Chiefs are in a commanding position to compete for Super Bowls for the next several years is because they have found a way (like the Patriots did for 20 years) to get cheap solutions around their highly-paid franchise QB. Of course, Brady took a discount to help make that happen - Mahomes is making $50m a year now, and if the Chiefs don't draft really well, it will eventually kill them. But they are nailing the draft: Their best running back was a 7th-round draft pick rookie; they have the best center in football, and he was a low-second round pick in 2022.
This is what the Red Sox are not doing - and, of course, it is harder to do this in baseball, where most draft picks will take years to pan out, if ever. Do I think Boston has their long-term solution at SS for Bogaerts already in the system? Yes - Marcelo Mayer, who was drafted in 2021, has been outstanding thus far in the system...and will begin 2023 at high-A. Miguel Blais looks like a legit potential franchise player in the outfield. He can replace Mookie! He was signed in January of 2021...and will likely not be a starter in the majors until 2026 (he is starting the season in low-A ball).
If you don't have a Killer B's 2018 outfield, or a rookie Devers playing 3B, or a 2018 Sale pitching pre-FA, then you really can't afford to have 2020-2024 Chris Sale sitting around making $150m over five years, breaking down more often than poorly-constructed IKEA furniture. And the Red Sox just don't have much young, cheap, high-impact homegrown talent (besides Casas, Bello, and maybe Rafaela) coming up until 2025.
The Sox are currently $22M under the salary tax; if they didn't sign Jansen they would have been $35M under. Sale's contract isn't blocking them from doing anything. The team is going to struggle because they simply don't have good, young talent on the roster. *If* this team is going to actually compete for a wild card it's going to be because of the "albatross", not despite him like the Fat Panda/Hanley Ramirez doomed from the start contracts.
Numbers are a bit off, but basically it's $15M AAV (because of the relatively new rule that resets AAV when a player is traded) minus the $12.25M from SD (which is derived from his $13M salary minus the $.75M league min which BOS/SD agreed to when they traded for him), minus the $.75M league min from Chicago.
As good as Co't and Spotrac are there are a few inconsistencies though. Spotrac lists Hosmer as dead money for the Sox for THIS year - which I don't think is the case because CHI is paying the league minimum, so according to Spotrac, Hosmer is effectively double-dipping on the league min - $12.25 from SD, $.75 from Box, $.75 from Chi = > his $13M salary. Cot's doesn't list his tax hit to the Sox this year in their accounting sheet, which I think is wrong, but who knows.
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