If everyone is healthy that’s a good problem and Pivetta probably goes to the bullpen.

Given all the potential for health issues perhaps they go to a six-man rotation if all are healthy.

Lots has been made about Jansen dealing with the pitch clock.  Trying to guess at what impact that will have is a virtual impossibility.  Obviously he is very good and the Sox need him to adjust.

I can't picture a world in which he can't adjust. I see it like a little-leaguer who moves on to Babe Ruth league or whatever and on a base hit simply stops running at 60 feet because that's where he's used to the base being. It's incredibly absurd to think he can't adjust. Now, whether his performance won't be affected we won't know - but that's true of every pitcher who has ever taken their time on occasion, which is every pitcher.

There's a nice little feature on Brayan Bello at Fangraphs. However, he had some forearm stiffness last week. He "threw" yesterday so I'd guess we'll hear soon if it's anything serious.

I assume Wong will get some work at other spots as the Sox try to make him a Swihart style utility player that could put him into that mix with everyone else.

Ah yes, the ever elusive Brock Holt lite. Every team needs that one sub-80 OPS+ guy that isn't really good at any position, but man, they LOOK like they should be a ball player.

This offense is going to suck. The starting pitching will be injured and shitty. The defense will be barely acceptable. And as always, I have no clue how the pen will be, although I would wager there's a solid 75% chance Jansen is not the closer by the trade deadline (and yes, the Sox will be carrying dead money on his contract next year). SUPER EXCITED! LETS GO SOX!

This offense is going to suck. The starting pitching will be injured and shitty. The defense will be barely acceptable.

And they'll spit in your hotdogs at Fenway!

And they'll spit in your hotdogs at Fenway!

Actually, the sausage vendors outside of the stadium are fantastic. At least they were a few years ago, haven't been to a game in a while.

I usually get Tasty Burger or Hojoku if I am eating outside the park.

Ah yes, the ever elusive Brock Holt lite. Every team needs that one sub-80 OPS+ guy that isn't really good at any position, but man, they LOOK like they should be a ball player.

LOL. We seem to have a lot of them. :) The important things to remember about having a Brock Holt lite is that he was already a lite version of Ben Zobrist. So if lite is a beer analogy, Zobrist was Sam Adams, Holt was Sam Adams lite, and and a lite version of that would be... mello yello?

I read a preview that had Paxton ahead of Pivetta and he probably is. The likelihood of Paxton and Sale being healthy at the same time just feels remote. Someone from that group of six guys will be on the IL, I’d be shocked if that wasn’t the case. If everyone is healthy that’s a good problem and Pivetta probably goes to the bullpen.

If Paxton is at any point this year in any way pitching better than Pivetta, I will be ecstatic. I had previously been assuming he'll either be hurt or he's healthy and is diminished enough that a 1 year/$4 mil deal looked good to him. Paxton as a passable #3-4 starter would be amazing.

Regarding the DH slot, I think Turner and co. are better than they appear. The positional adjustment at DH is quite severe, making WAR projections look low. On FG depth charts, they project Boston for 2.0 WAR from DH, which sounds a bit meager, but ranks them 9th in the league.

Well, this definitely a pivotal year for Verdugo. Any hope of sniffing the playoffs would seem to rest with his bat.

There have been a couple articles about how Cora "called out" Verdugo at the end of last season--challenged him to get in better shape, etc. It apparently resonated with Verdugo who, according to both Cora and Verdugo, has come into camp less bulky than last year. (Yeah, I know, best shape of his life...)

Interesting development on the SS front: Elvis Andrus signed with the White Sox for 1/$3 mil. According to MLBTR, the Red Sox were interested as well. I'm a little surprised that they didn't pursue him a bit more hotly given that this is what he ended up getting. He put up 3.5 WAR last year, with projections around 2 WAR at SS.

I pretty much exactly agree with Jose's early look at the roster construction. I don't think the 2023 Red Sox will be particularly good...so I really hope they are at least interesting.

To me, interesting means watching:
-Casas develop as a big leaguer
- Bello and Whitlock in the rotation all year
- Houck throwing a lot of innings
- Mata pitch in the bigs in 2023
- Yoshida: Is he a key part of the next great Red Sox team?
- Rafaela: Does he make the big leagues this year? If he does, I want to see him play everyday to figure out what we've got.
- The minors: Does Mayer keep marching towards the big leagues? Does Yorke get back on track? How about Bleis? Do any of the AAA pitchers among Walter, Winckowski, Murphy or Crawford have a legit major-league future? Are either David Hamilton or Enmanuel Valdez part of the future?

Ah yes, the ever elusive Brock Holt lite. Every team needs that one sub-80 OPS+ guy that isn't really good at any position, but man, they LOOK like they should be a ball player.

I agree that the Bosox seem to look for versatile players, maybe because the team always seems to have several black hole positions. However, Holt is a poor example - Boston would love to have a player like the Brock Holt that played for them. His career OPS was 88 and was 92 for Boston where he had 84% of his PA. (BBRef.) Not a slugger but better than the quoted language. That same source also rates Holt as a plus defender overall, though positional breakouts might show some weak spots.

However, Holt is a poor example - Boston would love to have a player like the Brock Holt that played for them

I agree, that's why I called him Brock Holt lite. As in, worse than Holt. All snark aside, every team can benefit from a player like Holt. Cheap, versatile, not terrible with the bat, seemingly liked by all, and has the potential to be an All Star. Just need to know when to cut bait on them.

Interesting development on the SS front: Elvis Andrus signed with the White Sox for 1/$3 mil. According to MLBTR, the Red Sox were interested as well. I'm a little surprised that they didn't pursue him a bit more hotly given that this is what he ended up getting. He put up 3.5 WAR last year, with projections around 2 WAR at SS.

I was going to respond in the older thread where jacksone made a similar point, but I'll put it here. Just because Boston didn't get Andrus doesn't mean they didn't offer him as much money. It could entirely be that their offer to him was some lump sum of money and "you're our 2B or SS to start the year, but when Story comes back you're riding the bench, so you'll be reentering free agency as a guy who was warming the bench for a last-place team". I can't imagine Boston would have paid high enough above what Chicago offered him to entice him to take that deal. Like, Boston doesn't even have to spell out the part in quotes for Andrus (or his agent) to look at the Boston role in that way. A stop-gap middle infielder to get them past the Story injury and Mayer's development, on a last-place team, is not a great opportunity from a veteran player's perspective.

This offense is going to suck. The starting pitching will be injured and shitty. The defense will be barely acceptable.

Spring Training is a time for optimism, even if one has to squint a bit (or a lot).

Great list in 13, to which I'll add:

- Seeing what Mondesi is if he stays somewhat healthy
- Is Verdugo a good/very good player or has he settled into mediocrity?
- Will Devlin Granberg be as good as Daniel Nava or better?
- More specifically on Yoshida, what exactly will his game translate into? Will he have 20 HR power? 40 doubles? Will he a be a .300 hitter? How much will he walk and strike out?

Just because Boston didn't get Andrus doesn't mean they didn't offer him as much money.

Yeah, you're right. I guess one way they could have 'pursued him more hotly' (as the expression goes) would be to offer him the starting job.

I am optimistic about this team. My optimism doesn't top out at a playoff appearance, but there's a lot I like about this team.

I would add that if the Red Sox are neither competitive nor interesting, 2023 presents a lot of competition for the New England sports fans' attention:

- The Bruins are expected to go deep into the NHL playoffs (which run from April 17th to as late as June 18th this year)
- The Celtics are also expected to go deep into the playoffs (which run from April 11th to as late as June 18th this year)
- The Patriots' first game will be in early September.

I mean, it is entirely possible that most sports fans up here will get locked into the NBA and NHL playoffs until mid-June, and then will be locked into the Patriots by late August. That will leave a window of 2+ months for the Red Sox to own the bandwidth. They'll be about 60 games into the season by then. If they are 27-33, 8 GB by then, it is going to be really easy to just head to the beach for July and August, and put the sports focus back on when the NFL gets going.

I am optimistic about this team. My optimism doesn't top out at a playoff appearance, but there's a lot I like about this team.

If the SP can pitch to their potential, they'll be a .500 team. I'll take that.

#16 - I get what you're saying, a starting role somewhere probably carries more weight than an extra million dollars. But if you can't sell the Sox as a starting opportunity, then you are a shitty salesperson. The Sox are planning on starting Hernandez and Arroyo at SS & 2B. Just bump Arroyo to the bench, put Andrus at SS and move Hernandez to 2B (or switch them, but point being, Andrus is starting). Worry about what happens with Story once he's actually ready to go. There's no loyalty or long term commitment from the Sox for either of Andrus or Hernandez, so if they play well and can fetch something in a trade, great. And if either sucks, DFA them and turn it over to Arroyo or Mondesi.

Hernandez being freed up also then gives you a back up for CF, a position he has at least proven he can handle defensively - something everyone is sort of ignoring at the moment. The Sox currently don't have a CF on the roster. Duvall is 34 and has 75 games there in his career, Durran has not shown the instincts to play there, and Ceddane is an unknown. Up until last year the Sox have had a really solid run at CF over the past decade or so, might not have been a position of strength, but they were at least middle/top of the AL by team WAA. Then came last year, and the team sucked.

If the team isn't going to have top end talent then they need to be solid at every position AND have solid back ups for the inevitable injury to a starter. Right now, they don't have quality depth, if one person goes down, they are done. And if you have to put Christian Arroyo on the bench to sign Andrus, then you do it.

To jacksone's point in #23:

I have no idea what the team is thinking (even as Spring Training begins, which seems like a bad thing!). That said, if management thinks this team is likely not going to be a contender, then they really need to use 2023 to get as much "data" as they can on the players they already have - particularly the ones who could theoretically be a part of the team's future if they pan out.

To that end, this has to be the year that the team decides whether or not Christian Arroyo has a future with the Red Sox. They have handed him an everyday job at second base on a platter. To jacksone's point, they could have easily signed Andrus to a 1 year, $5m deal, but they didn't - it is Arroyo's job to lose.

In terms of the lineup, I feel like Opening Day will likely include several guys that are auditioning for long-term relevance with the Red Sox: McGuire, Casas, Arroyo, Verdugo, and Yoshida.

There is one guy on the team who is definitely part of the future of the team: Devers

Then, the rest of the guys are here to keep the spot warm until the team is good again: Turner, Hernandez, Duvall

If Verdugo gives the team another year like the last two years, then they need to trade him after 2023. He will make too much money to be taking up oxygen on the team as a not-so-young-anymore, not-cheap-anymore, below-average defensive OF, slightly above average hitter. I'm not optimistic.

McGuire and Arroyo are cheap players who are still young enough to be a part of a winning team in the future. McGuire, in particular, is at least a really good backup catcher on an excellent team. He may be better than that.

Casas and Yoshida really must pan out as above-average players for Bloom to have a job next year at this time. The gap between Devers and everybody else - if these two guys don't pan out in 2023 - is going to be enormous. It is so maddening that the 2018 Red Sox fell to this point so quickly.

Not that I'm someone to complain about negativity, but I'm surprised how down everyone here is on the team's chances. I didn't really like or even quite understand their offseason either, but I'm feeling fairly confident that they'll be at least around .500 and have at least a reasonable shot at snagging a playoff spot.

Not that I'm someone to complain about negativity, but I'm surprised how down everyone here is on the team's chances. I didn't really like or even quite understand their offseason either, but I'm feeling fairly confident that they'll be at least around .500 and have at least a reasonable shot at snagging a playoff spot.

I think the big-picture post-Mookie negativity towards the organization itself affects people's estimation of their future on-field performance.

On Sunday at Encore, their Wins over/under is up to 77.5, after being 76.5 two weeks earlier - things are trending up!

woo hoo! I would take the over on that one.

The biggest question mark on this team is the top of the rotation's health. So far, it's healthy, which is a better place than I thought we'd be at this point.

More positive news: Fangraphs top 100 prospects just dropped and the Red Sox have 4 in the top 50, 5 in the top 112. The happy surprise is Bleis at #20: "This is one of the toolsiest prospects in all the minors and one of the players on the Top 100 who has a chance to “Chourio,” i.e. leap into the top-10 overall prospect mix within the next year."

This was just mean, regarding Casas: "He struggles with softer stuff in the bottom of the strike zone, and his in-zone and overall contact rates in 2022 were 78% and 70% respectively, an area similar to Nolan Gorman, Franchy Cordero, Bobby Dalbec and others who have tantalizing power but have sometimes been frustrating big league hitters."

The FG list also doubles down on their Yoshida skepticism as he doesn't make the top 112. We'll see....

I didn't really like or even quite understand their offseason either, but I'm feeling fairly confident that they'll be at least around .500 and have at least a reasonable shot at snagging a playoff spot.

I am not sure I understand your thinking here. The team finished with 78 wins last year, 8 games out of the WC. You agree they have not had a great off season, but you think they are going to improve by 6 games or so?

If the team wanted to go full youth and say we're taking a year to see what we've got, fine, that could be fun, because they do have an ownership that's proven it will spend to win. But the org seems to be acting like business as usual, trying to get in the playoffs, and then misses out on signing a very cheap piece that could get them a win or two to really actually push them there. It's confusing, and seems like there's no clear directive. That's what bugs me more than anything.

I am not sure I understand your thinking here. The team finished with 78 wins last year, 8 games out of the WC. You agree they have not had a great off season, but you think they are going to improve by 6 games or so?

Yeah, I guess I didn't explain that very well, probably in part because I have conflicted feelings about it. My thinking is that if it were me, I would have done things quite differently. Obviously, I would have liked them to lock up Bogaerts before 2022 if possible. After the season, with all of that money to spend, I wanted them to lock down some top-end talent. Rodon in the rotation, Nimmo in CF, maybe even Swanson at SS. I would not have had any interest in Jansen for 2/32. So I didn't like what they did. However, looking at the team now, I feel better than I thought I would about their chances. And there's a chance that they are doing things that we don't yet understand.

If the team wanted to go full youth and say we're taking a year to see what we've got, fine, that could be fun, because they do have an ownership that's proven it will spend to win. But the org seems to be acting like business as usual, trying to get in the playoffs, and then misses out on signing a very cheap piece that could get them a win or two to really actually push them there. It's confusing, and seems like there's no clear directive. That's what bugs me more than anything.

I would have been pretty upset with them if they went full youth movement. They've had a couple years to reset the tax and clear dead payroll. Now was the time for them to invest and compete in earnest.

I would have been pretty upset with them if they went full youth movement. They've had a couple years to reset the tax and clear dead payroll. Now was the time for them to invest and compete in earnest.

I agree. And unless I am forgetting somebody, the veteran acquisitions don't substantially hinder opportunities for the youth to get a chance.

it'll get its own thread and is more philly news than boston but...

noah song was just discharged from the navy

it'll get its own thread and is more philly news than boston but...

noah song was just discharged from the navy

Well that's just great. I can't imagine they'll be able to keep him on the big league roster all year, but who knows?

The FG list also doubles down on their Yoshida skepticism as he doesn't make the top 112. We'll see....

In the accompanying chat, Eric says: "He was a 45+ on the Int’l board, industry consensus is Boston overpayed. Don’t think he sucks just think the impact is limited. Would happily be proven wrong, he’s been on the site’s radar for a while because he’s a super fun player."

45+ is just outside the list I would guess.

The Noah Song thing is really, really interesting. MLB's rules say that he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until opening day, so that gives the Phillies a while to decide what to do. If they don't think he can hack it, would some other non-competitive team trade for him and stash him? I suspect he'd have to at least be passable as a mop-up man for that.

I've seen in a few places that if the Phillies cut him, he has to pass through waivers before being returned. Is that true? I had never heard that. (Edit: Looked it up, he does have to pass through waivers.)

Also, he only has to be active for 90 days. If he's throwing 85 in camp, is "dead arm" considered a legitimate reason to put him on the 60 day IL?

woo hoo! I would take the over on that one.

You must be joking. Everything has to fall in place for them to be a .500 team, and everything falling into place doesn't happen very often.

Are we going to repeat last year's silliness?

I don't like it anymore than you do, Biv, but I'm Mr. Sunshine around here now.

I guess a little bit of sunshine is a good thing.

Everything has to fall in place for them to be a .500 team

Nah. A team would have to be really lacking in (on-paper) talent to only get to .500 if everything falls into place. I'm thinking more like the 2018 Rays; they weren't loaded in talent and an almost best-case scenario season happened, and they got to 90 wins.

Last year it was almost the opposite of everything falling into place, and they still almost got .500.

Last year it was almost the opposite of everything falling into place, and they still almost got .500.

I'd extend back to 2021 as well. 2021 and 2022 teams seemed fairly similar on paper. A lot went right in 2021 and they won 92 games. A lot went wrong last year and they won 78. The 2023 team looks to be in a similar place to me, perhaps a tick below these two.

Apparently Verdugo is talking with the team about an extension. It seems like a hard contract to guess. He's got some potential to be an above average player, but he's coming off a really bad year and a mediocre on the year before that. With his arb number likely to be $8-10 mil next year, maybe the Sox are willing to go something like 9-12-12 with an option or two? I'm not even sure they'd want to commit to that, or that Verdugo would accept it.

The 2023 team looks to be in a similar place to me, perhaps a tick below these two.

The loss of Bogaerts is huge. Mondesi, as the replacement? Ugh.

I'm still irritated by the obvious idiocy of JBJ trade, but I guess Bloom is in some kind of holding pattern with the MLB roster until, what? Who knows? Given that unknown variable, he has signed short-term leases on a lot of guys who have the illusion of breaking out and meeting heretofore untapped potential or flashing shadows of past heroics. Story getting hurt is a blow, but if the stars align this offensive roster could be good, and there are few actual young/new guys with the potential to be useful and fun players. The defense looks kinda meh. If Sale hadn't darwin'ed away his season last year their opportunity to make the playoffs given the actual on-field performance would have been fairly high. I'm bullish on the starting pitching. I don't think Sale is as fragile as other posters do. Other than the TJ, most of his injuries have been fluky and weird. That can't continue, can it? The remaining supporting starting depth is pretty strong and has the potential to be, maybe not excellent, but very solid. The bullpen is legitimately improved and should be assisted by an improved starting lineup. While acknowledging this year could be a complete meltdown, I'm optimistic that they have a decent ceiling if a few things go their way.

Man I just came across this post-Mookie trade thread while (unsuccessfully) looking for something else and hoo boy did a lot of people say very stupid things in the aftermath of that deal.

And this one. Man I forgot a lot of these, honestly makes me think less of some of you! Just ridiculous, mean-spirited posting (and obviously 100% wrong, which is at least as important).

I stand by my posts in those!

Huh. You definitely should not do that.

I'm willing to self-reflect and make improvements. Which of my posts in those threads should I re-examine? Was it my content or my tone that was problematic?

Post-Mookie trade was an emotional time. My apologies to all if I was over the top.

On another, happier note, Dan Syzmborski just published his ZIPS top 100 prospects.

It's a really interesting balance to the scouting lists. Red Sox again have 4 in the top 50:

Yoshida 12
Casas 35
Mayer 41
Rafaela 45

The big difference here is obviously Yoshida clocking in at 12 and Bleis not makinng the top 100. Yoshida is going to be one of the most interesting players to watch this year!

The Sox system is a little bit top-heavy according to ZIPS. They are one of only 2 teams (along with the Orioles) with 4 players in the top 50 but they have zero from 50 to 100 (Nick Yorke just misses at 102), and only 3 between 100 and 200. Casas ranks as the #2 1B (and Niko Kavadas at #5, but #282 overall), Yoshida #2 and Rafaela #8 in the OF, and Mayer is somehow #13 at SS (!). I guess there are a lot of SS prospects and not many 1B prospects, which makes a lot of sense.

Some other really interesting players in the list, do check it out.

Darren - Does Dan give more weight to certainty than upside than others? That might explain Bleis who is still a long way away and even some of his skepticism on Mayer relative to others who generally have him top 20.

Thanks Darren, my hopes went up with 52 and back to where they've been with 53.

I'm usually pretty good at being optimistic but I think this off-season just had too many teams making moves I wished the Sox would make, while the Sox made moves that the Oakland A's would make . . .

Of course there is a baseball game being played today! Even if it is against Northeastern, it is still baseball and that is a good thing. That alone is lifting my spirits and getting me hopeful about 2023.

I have nothing of value to contribute to this thread and thus appreciate those of you who do!

In the article he says that ZIPS values a high floor far more than scouts do, so yes, I think you're right.

Thanks Darren, my hopes went up with 52 and back to where they've been with 53.

I'm curious why? Was it Mayer being ranked the 13th SS prospect? As Dan explains, there's a really good reason for that. The best defensive prospects haven't been moved off of SS (yet), whereas 3B, 2B, 1B, corner OF, etc, all contain players who have been.

I'm usually pretty good at being optimistic but I think this off-season just had too many teams making moves I wished the Sox would make, while the Sox made moves that the Oakland A's would make . . .

Two of the moves I most wanted the Sox to make were to sign Martin and Yoshida, so early on, things were looking up! Of course, there was a bunch of other stuff I wanted too, and none of that happened.

I'm willing to self-reflect and make improvements. Which of my posts in those threads should I re-examine? Was it my content or my tone that was problematic?

It wasn't you, but someone called me "even-headed and thoughtful". That hasn't aged well.

So much lol wrongness in the Mookie goes bye byes threads.

On another, happier note, Dan Syzmborski just published his ZIPS top 100 prospects.

Wheeeeee!

I can't wait to see the column that looks back at the season to see how the projections mirrored reality.

Actually, I've never seen one. Every year, there are projections. Never a scorecard. BIG SHRUG.

I wonder what exactly happened between the end of last season, when Yoshida was a 35+ (just above emergency call up) to his recent jump to 45+ (between platoon and regular). Did they consult more scouts and get different feedback? Or did the $90 mil. deal and the excellent projections cause them to bump it up? I'm not saying the latter is wrong*--I just wonder what happened.

*It is, however, not cool to mock that contract and then adjust your opinion based on it. Not sure if that's exactly the case here.

On another, happier note, Dan Syzmborski just published his ZIPS top 100 prospects.

Wheeeeee!

I can't wait to see the column that looks back at the season to see how the projections mirrored reality.

Actually, I've never seen one. Every year, there are projections. Never a scorecard. BIG SHRUG.

On another, happier note, Dan Syzmborski just published his ZIPS top 100 prospects.

Wheeeeee!

I can't wait to see the column that looks back at the season to see how the projections mirrored reality.

Actually, I've never seen one. Every year, there are projections. Never a scorecard. BIG SHRUG.

edit..I *think* I found a retrospective, in the Fangraphs article. If I'm interpreting it correctly, it's a jumble of hits and misses. "ZiPS" seems to be the sound darts make as they whiz by toward their target.

Oh well. Everyone needs a hobby. Have fun storming the castle!

Actually, I've never seen one. Every year, there are projections. Never a scorecard. BIG SHRUG.

They do this all the time. You can find the looks back as well as information about how accurate they are.

Where? Seriously. Post a link?

Darren - just the dearth of mid-level prospects. When the Sox aren't going well my hope is they're re-stocking the farm and I'm just not paying close enough attention to Sox prospects to know it . . . of course those are just rankings, not reality.

As soon as there are games on the radio I'm sure my outlook will be sunnier!

After the season, with all of that money to spend, I wanted them to lock down some top-end talent. Rodon in the rotation, Nimmo in CF, maybe even Swanson at SS. I would not have had any interest in Jansen for 2/32. So I didn't like what they did. However, looking at the team now, I feel better than I thought I would about their chances.

I'm with you . . . except I can't find my rose-tinted glasses to make the last sentence really *work* for me. Hopefully some players will enter spring training in the best shape of their lives ;-) and the pitching staff holds together.

Hey, they kicked the #### out of NU today.......5-3.

I thought the big news out of camp was that Yoshida has more power than expected. Pete Fatse was saying he has like 70 raw power. its a twitter post by tyler milliken.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1628751700478595073

The team finished with 78 wins last year, 8 games out of the WC. You agree they have not had a great off season, but you think they are going to improve by 6 games or so?

A 78 win team only has to improve by 3 games to get to .500. An improvement like Yoshida could bring say 2 WAR right there.

..and only 3 between 100 and 200.

how many prospects do you expect the average MLB team to have between 100 and 200?

A purely average team would have 6-7 prospects in the top 200, right? So the Sox are right on the average. Given that they haven't traded a bunch of star prospects for high-priced superstars, I'd like to think they'd be above average down on the farm.

They're a .500 team with a .500 (so to speak) farm system. I'd prefer at least one of those to be higher - understand it's typically at the expense of the other. This could be a solid team, but it seems like it has a relatively low ceiling unless I'm missing hidden upside. Hopefully it's more a matter of the floor also being high!

A 78 win team only has to improve by 3 games to get to .500. An improvement like Yoshida could bring say 2 WAR right there.

They lost Bogaerts.

..and only 3 between 100 and 200.



how many prospects do you expect the average MLB team to have between 100 and 200?

Another case of poor wording on my part. It was supposed convey 4 in the top 50 and "only 3" between 50 and 200, which would support the top-heavy case. But that was some really sloppy wording.

A purely average team would have 6-7 prospects in the top 200, right? So the Sox are right on the average. Given that they haven't traded a bunch of star prospects for high-priced superstars, I'd like to think they'd be above average down on the farm.

Yes, exactly. A purely average system would have a #15 or #16 for its number 1 prospect, then another 30 places behind that, etc. Here's how the Red Sox stack up:


#1 Prospect - Avg Tm: #15.5, Red Sox #12
#2 Prospect - Avg Tm: #45.5, Red Sox #35
#3 Prospect - Avg Tm: #75.5, Red Sox #41
#4 Prospect - Avg Tm: #105.5, Red Sox #48
#5 Prospect - Avg Tm: #135.5, Red Sox between 100 and 200
#6 Prospect - Avg Tm: #165.5, Red Sox between 100 and 200
#7 Prospect - Avg Tm: #195.5, Red Sox between 100 and 200

That is a really good looking system and I hope my "top-heavy" description didn't make it sound like I thought otherwise.

Given the Bogaerts and Machado deals by San Diego, and the Sox's plethora of short deals and disinclination to spend big (except locking up Devers) I wonder if they think the market for top talent is about to crater, with the cable companies disappearing. It may be very much cheaper to pick up top FA in 2025-26 than it is today, in which case the Sox will look like geniuses.

I wonder if they think the market for top talent is about to crater, with the cable companies disappearing.

Teams can set up their own regional sports network, which has worked well for some (e.g. NESN, YES, etc), and streaming is becoming a more popular option. Perhaps over-the-air stations will get back in the game, too. In any event, the signings this offseason don’t suggest teams think they’ll be greatly impacted.

I thought the big news out of camp was that Yoshida has more power than expected. Pete Fatse was saying he has like 70 raw power. its a twitter post by tyler milliken.

Wow. If he's anything near a 70 power, he's one hell of a hitter. Is anyone else, other than his completely impartial hitting coach, saying this?

He's 29 years old and has been playing professionally for years, it is known what kind of power he has. He's not Toe Nash.

Oh you're no fun.

Apparently BA rated him as having plus raw power as well, but questioned whether he could reach that level in MLB games.

Oh you're no fun.

I was gonna make a snarky comment about the Tooth Fairy and Santa Claus, but then I saw your comment in 75.


This team's potential ranges from historically bad to mediocre. If they come in third in the division there should be celebrations.

Go Bruins! Go Celtics!

And I say that not because the pitching will necessarily be terrible. The rotation looks better than it did last year. I think Sale will be good. The injuries he had last year were from bad luck. His arm should be fine.

I think the offense will be weak and boring. Devers may draw 150 BBs.

Darren, your explanations make sense. I was in the midst of a rare glass half-empty day . . . the return of spring baseball and seeing red sox players getting hits (and walking off!) has got me back in the proper spring training mindset (yay baseball!)

A 78 win team only has to improve by 3 games to get to .500. An improvement like Yoshida could bring say 2 WAR right there.

The problem with projecting 2023 over 2022 is shortstop. Bogaerts was at 5.8 WAR in 2022. Can you really expect his replacement(s) to much exceed 2 WAR in 2023? And Vazquez and McGuire were quite good at C for them in 2022 (combined for 3.1 WAR between them with Boston). Now, Plawecki was so bad that it brough down the catching position to about 2 WAR, overall, but still - McGuire and Wong will have to be pretty good to match 2022 at catcher.

Even if Casas and Yoshida are a lot better than the PAs they're taking from last year's crap in OF and 1B, they'll have to be something like 3.5 WAR ahead of 2022 at those positions just to make up for the loss of Bogaerts at SS.

And the Pyth W/L for the team last year was not 78-84...it was 76-86. They actually had slightly above-average luck to get to 78 wins! Seriously, though...if you believe, like I do, that the 2022 WAR of C, 1B, SS, and RF will roughly equal the 2023 WAR of C, 1B, SS, and Yoshida, and if the team was a 76-to-78 -win team last year, and if you believe the team will be significantly better in 2023...then where does the significant improvement come from in 2023?

To answer your question SBPT if there is improvement to be had it’s the bullpen. They were awful last year. That shouldn’t be the case this year. Just to put a number to it they went 9-13 in April last year. But they lost 4 games they had a lead in the 8th inning or later. Caveats on relievers of course but Martin/Jansen alone should be a boost there and I think Houck settled in the bullpen rather than bouncing around will help as well. I think a better start changes the way last year plays out. Not enough to make them a playoff team or anything but I think an 83-79 season or something like that changes the way we feel today.

I came to post for different reasons. I’ll be seeing two games in Fort Myers (the 10th and 15th) as well as the DR-Nicaragua WBC game in Miami on the 13th. If there are any players people want reports on including minor leaguers let me know. The regulars won’t be there largely because of the WBC but I’m looking forward to seeing some of the kids on the back fields and the WBC game should be fun also. Marlins Park or whatever it’s called is also a new addition to my list of stadiums I’ve attended games in. So if people have particular players they are curious about give me a shout.

Oh and one other thing…the new schedule can only help. The Sox were 26-50 against the East, 52-34 against everyone else.

Anyone have experience paying for NESN 360 and getting the 4 free tickets? The details on the tickets are a little vague so I'm hesitant to commit unless I can figure out if it's worth it (basically going month to month in the baseball season would be 210ish, paying for the whole year and getting the 4 tickets included would be $330, which is surely worth it financially but not if the games are ones I can't actually attend).

jmurph - No sorry. I'm doing the month to month thing as I wouldn't have had the use for four tickets. Reading through it though it looks like there is some wiggle room for getting your tickets. It seems to be a voucher that you have to redeem by 8/31/23 and is worth $250. So you aren't getting dugout box seats (or Yankee games I'd bet) but it looks like there is some freedom there.

Thanks Jose! I didn't see the $250 value part. I'm mostly worried it'll be a bunch of random day games I can't attend but good that there's at least some choice involved.

To answer your question SBPT if there is improvement to be had it’s the bullpen. They were awful last year. That shouldn’t be the case this year. Just to put a number to it they went 9-13 in April last year. But they lost 4 games they had a lead in the 8th inning or later. Caveats on relievers of course but Martin/Jansen alone should be a boost there and I think Houck settled in the bullpen rather than bouncing around will help as well.

Unless Verdugo goes nuts, or Whitlock suddenly becomes a Cy Young candidate as a starter or something, this probably makes the most sense. I looked at the possibility of "addition by subtraction" - simply replacing players with negative value with players who are at least not hurting you. There is that opportunity in the bullpen, and the back of the rotation. The WAR of various pitchers for Boston in 2022:

Seabold -1.0
Darwinzon Hernandez -0.9
Robles -0.8
Brasier -0.8
Ort -0.4
Austin Davis -0.4
Winckowski -0.3
German -0.3
Valdez -0.1
Familia -0.1
Danish -0.1

That's about -5.1 WAR, most of that bullpen innings. Now, they've also lost Wacha, Eovaldi, and Hill, who combined for 5.7 WAR, so (not unlike Casas and Yoshida needing to replace Bogaert's lost production just to get back to even) the team needs some starters to step and stay healthy.

Which brings us back to the fundamental problem with the Red Sox in the short term: They are entering their third straight year of trying to plug in a lot of holes with short-term deals with veterans, who often are pitchers available for short-term deals because of their injury history. They are trying to triage this until the farm system can start filling in holes.

This year, they hope to solve 1B with Casas, one OF slot with Yoshida, and decided to pony up to solve 3B for a long time. Late this year, they'd like to put Rafaela in CF. They hope Bello and Whitlock will solve two rotation spots for a long time. Guys like Mayer and Blais give the promise of premium, cheap solutions at SS and LF. They thought Verdugo would be part of a long-term vision...but that is feeling increasingly unlikely.

The single-biggest problem right now for the team is that they are paying an ace $30m a year to not pitch. Chris Sale made $30m last year to give them no WAR, and a couple of innings. They are trying to clear out the contracts, and get below the luxury tax, avoid long-term financial commitments at many positions...all while dragging along the albatross that is Chris Sale's contract.

The single-biggest problem right now for the team is that they are paying an ace $30m a year to not pitch. Chris Sale made $30m last year to give them no WAR, and a couple of innings. They are trying to clear out the contracts, and get below the luxury tax, avoid long-term financial commitments at many positions...all while dragging along the albatross that is Chris Sale's contract.

Yes, but I think that problem is overstated. It's not rare for big-payroll teams to carry around that amount of dead payroll money, and they often win despite it (e.g. the 2018 Sox). And if was healthy and ace-ish for 180 innings or something last year, that likely only gets them to the fringes of the wildcard race.

jmurph - No sorry. I'm doing the month to month thing as I wouldn't have had the use for four tickets. Reading through it though it looks like there is some wiggle room for getting your tickets. It seems to be a voucher that you have to redeem by 8/31/23 and is worth $250. So you aren't getting dugout box seats (or Yankee games I'd bet) but it looks like there is some freedom there.

So for $360 you get a year of NESN and $250 worth of tickets of your choice? That sounds decent, especially if you're planning to attend at least one game anyway.

Yes, but I think that problem is overstated. It's not rare for big-payroll teams to carry around that amount of dead payroll money, and they often win despite it (e.g. the 2018 Sox). And if was healthy and ace-ish for 180 innings or something last year, that likely only gets them to the fringes of the wildcard race.

The 2018 Sox paid Sandoval $18M to not be on the team, paid Pedroia $16M for 3 games, and paid Hanley Ramirez $22.75M for 44 games (.1 WAR).

They also paid Betts $10M for 10 WAR, Sale $12.5M for 6.4 WAR, Xander $7M for 5 WAR, and Benintendi $.64M for 4.8 WAR. Point being, you can easily make up for dead weight on the roster if you have guys significantly outperform their cost.

Who are the prime candidates to do that on the '23 Sox? Casas for sure, Verdugo & McGuire could, and I guess a few of the pitchers - Whitlock, Pivetta, Paxton, & Bello.

I agree with #89. First, Sale is only taking up about $25 mil toward the lux tax. Second, yeah, that's not good. But a good team loses the 3 or so wins you expect to get for $24 mil and still wins 90 games instead of 93.

My point about the Sale "albatross" is that the team is currently in a mode of trying to avoid big long-term commitments while the farm system begins bringing up talent. The $25m+ the last few years (and the next two years) to get nothing makes that job harder.

Of course, you can get away with throwing a lot of money away if you can do one or both of two things:

1) Just don't give a #### about the money, and spend whatever you need. After all, it is not a salary cap; it is a tax.
2) Hit on a lot of young talent before they start making big money. Betts, JBJ, Benintendi - that was a wonderful outfield, and it was all homegrown, and under team control. They got Sale before he would have been a free agent, but to do so, they had to trade premium young talent (Moncada and Kopech) - which they did. Also, Devers was making nothing, and was their regular at 3B.

The reason the Kansas City Chiefs are in a commanding position to compete for Super Bowls for the next several years is because they have found a way (like the Patriots did for 20 years) to get cheap solutions around their highly-paid franchise QB. Of course, Brady took a discount to help make that happen - Mahomes is making $50m a year now, and if the Chiefs don't draft really well, it will eventually kill them. But they are nailing the draft: Their best running back was a 7th-round draft pick rookie; they have the best center in football, and he was a low-second round pick in 2022.

This is what the Red Sox are not doing - and, of course, it is harder to do this in baseball, where most draft picks will take years to pan out, if ever. Do I think Boston has their long-term solution at SS for Bogaerts already in the system? Yes - Marcelo Mayer, who was drafted in 2021, has been outstanding thus far in the system...and will begin 2023 at high-A. Miguel Blais looks like a legit potential franchise player in the outfield. He can replace Mookie! He was signed in January of 2021...and will likely not be a starter in the majors until 2026 (he is starting the season in low-A ball).

If you don't have a Killer B's 2018 outfield, or a rookie Devers playing 3B, or a 2018 Sale pitching pre-FA, then you really can't afford to have 2020-2024 Chris Sale sitting around making $150m over five years, breaking down more often than poorly-constructed IKEA furniture. And the Red Sox just don't have much young, cheap, high-impact homegrown talent (besides Casas, Bello, and maybe Rafaela) coming up until 2025.

All good points. Where I disagreed was that the contract was their single biggest problem. As your post demonstrates, it's only a problem if you're not able to use the rest of your budget to find talent.

1) Just don't give a #### about the money, and spend whatever you need. After all, it is not a salary cap; it is a tax.

If you don't have a Killer B's 2018 outfield, or a rookie Devers playing 3B, or a 2018 Sale pitching pre-FA, then you really can't afford to have 2020-2024 Chris Sale sitting around making $150m over five years, breaking down more often than poorly-constructed IKEA furniture. And the Red Sox just don't have much young, cheap, high-impact homegrown talent (besides Casas, Bello, and maybe Rafaela) coming up until 2025.

The Sox are currently $22M under the salary tax; if they didn't sign Jansen they would have been $35M under. Sale's contract isn't blocking them from doing anything. The team is going to struggle because they simply don't have good, young talent on the roster. *If* this team is going to actually compete for a wild card it's going to be because of the "albatross", not despite him like the Fat Panda/Hanley Ramirez doomed from the start contracts.

Are they really that far under? I thought they were much closer, like maybe $5-10 mil under.

Just checked and Spotrac and according to them, you're right. I'm still confused how Hosmer's lux tax number is calculated--they have him at $1.75 mil. Whatever. They really could have bolstered this team quite a bit more by spending on a CF, SS, or SP.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jarren-duran-brings-new-swing-to-spring/

Duran strikes me as Ellsbury without the talent.

Just checked and Spotrac and according to them, you're right. I'm still confused how Hosmer's lux tax number is calculated--they have him at $1.75 mil. Whatever. They really could have bolstered this team quite a bit more by spending on a CF, SS, or SP.

Numbers are a bit off, but basically it's $15M AAV (because of the relatively new rule that resets AAV when a player is traded) minus the $12.25M from SD (which is derived from his $13M salary minus the $.75M league min which BOS/SD agreed to when they traded for him), minus the $.75M league min from Chicago.

As good as Co't and Spotrac are there are a few inconsistencies though. Spotrac lists Hosmer as dead money for the Sox for THIS year - which I don't think is the case because CHI is paying the league minimum, so according to Spotrac, Hosmer is effectively double-dipping on the league min - $12.25 from SD, $.75 from Box, $.75 from Chi = > his $13M salary. Cot's doesn't list his tax hit to the Sox this year in their accounting sheet, which I think is wrong, but who knows.