From the article in #98

In his first Grapefruit League action on Monday, after he and fellow Team Mexico outfielder Alex Verdugo entertained camp by hiring a Mariachi band as part of a presentation on their country of heritage

Didn't Durran play on the US Olympic qualifying team?

Here's the path to Cot's being right, regarding the Hosmer contract. Both of these need to be true.

1. San Diego agreed to pay *all* of Hosmer's salary at the time of the trade.

Per the CBA and the uniform player contract (UPC) a player on a team's roster must be paid at least the major-league minimum by that team. So even if SD agreed to pay all of it, in late 2022 Boston would still have owed Hosmer the minimum, and SD would have owed the balance of his contract. It's effectively the same, except it isn't, for reasons that will be clearer below.

2. Boston *terminated* Hosmer's contract.

If Boston felt Hosmer was not capable of performing well enough for them, they can terminate the contract provided (a) they put him on release waivers and (b) nobody claims him in the waiver period. There are other details - they need to inform him of the intent to terminate the contract, for example - but for the sake of this discussion the important elements are irrevocable release waivers and no claim. We know those happened, because a player can't be released without first passing through release waivers.

Under the UPC a player whose contract is terminated in that way (i.e. team decides he can't perform well enough) is still owed the remaining salary from that contract. As Boston's salary obligation per 1 above was only contingent on Hosmer being on their roster, they no longer owe him anything, and San Diego was again on the hook for the whole salary (until the Cubs signed him). Had Boston instead formally agreed that they would take responsibility for the minimum salary for each year of Hosmer's remaining contract as a condition of the trade, then I think Boston would still owe the minimum going forward.

-------------

I don't see a path where Spotrac can be correct.

From Sports Illustrated:

As part of Tuesday's trade, San Diego agreed to pay Boston up to $43,566,713, according to details of the agreement obtained by The Associated Press...San Diego will pay $6,786,813 this year...The trade includes $36.78 million in conditional cash if he keeps the contract: $12.28 million in 2023, $12.26 million in 2024 and $12.24 million in 2025.

That reads to me like Boston 'owns' Hosmer's contract in full, minus a set amount of cash from SD that does not fully cover his contract obligations. Obviously similar to what you are saying in #1 - but not the same.

Reading a different article, Hosmer exercised his '23 & 24' options - so I'd assume the Sox are on the hook for '24. Since they released him, what is the status of his '25 option? Can he still exercise it? And would the Sox have to pay the minimum?

I'm glad we now also have "best swing path of his life" as a Spring trope. CFBPS says Duran will hit .300/.380/.520 and will run after every ball in the OF.

I'm glad we now also have "best swing path of his life" as a Spring trope

I'm on pins and needles waiting to hear about Kluber's spin rate!!

Sox roll 15-3 today with Arroyo blasting two jacks. It'd be fun to see what he could do in a full, healthy season at 2B.

Sox roll 15-3 today with Arroyo blasting two jacks. It'd be fun to see what he could do in a full, healthy season at 2B.

Who did he hit them off of?

Two points:

1) For Bloom's 2023 "plan" (I still don't really know what it is, except to bet that the team will have very good luck with health) to hit this year, Arroyo panning out is an important part of it. Having Arroyo healthy and playing at the top of his game everyday at 2B would go a long way to stabilizing the lineup and the 26-man roster. I thought it was baseball malpractice for the team to think they could put Arroyo in RF last year as part of a platoon or something - so obviously a terrible decision as it was happening, that simply underscored the ineptitude of the Renfroe-for-JBJ/middling prospects trade that left the team with no answers in RF.

2) When I think about the differences in the Moneyball-type approach of somebody like Epstein vs Bloom, they include:
- Timing. In 2002-2004, the Red Sox could look at a guy like, say, Mark Bellhorn, to play 2B, and easily acquire him, because most teams thought Bellhorn had no value. Epstein saw a guy who hit home runs, took a ton of walks, and played good enough 2B to make it work. Other teams saw the low batting average, high strikeouts, and terrible small sample sizes early in his career, and saw no value. That sort of thing is much, much less likely to happen now. That is a credit to Epstein, and I do not ding Bloom for that.

- What I do ding Bloom on, though, is that he generally looks for value based on what he perceives as injury-based high-risk, high-reward. Epstein looked for market inefficiencies in talent evaluation - David Ortiz, Jeremy Giambi, Bellhorn, Mueller, etc. Bloom seems to go for guys who are available on short-term deals, and/or incentive-laden contracts, because of their injury history or age. James Paxton is such an example. Everybody knew he wasn't going to pitch much, if at all, in 2022. It is far from certain he'll pitch a lot in 2023. But they basically gave him $10m in 2022 as an advance on his 2023 salary ($4m), in the hopes that they'll get a really good one-year, $14m season out of Paxton this year. But that $10m singlehandedly put them over the luxury tax last year, which is restraining them this year...and it is not like Paxton was Pedro Martinez before he got hurt. And if he is awesome this year, he's a free agent at the end of the season. Justin Turner is available because he is old, not because people undervalued his skills. Arroyo is injured all the time. Kluber is old and has suffered major injuries in the past. Wacha was available because he had an injury history.

Virtually none of Bloom's moves involve finding underappreciated talent, or exploiting market inefficiencies...unless he believes players with injury histories are being so undervalued in the market that this is a market inefficiency.

When I see Arroyo, this is what I think of - a guy that was a first-round draft pick, was highly-regarded, but was available because he just can't stay on the field. You can't build a consistent World Series contender like that. At least it gives Sale people to hang out with at rehab sessions...

Who did he hit them off of?

The Phillies.

Arroyo playing the OF last year was a sign that things had gone horribly wrong. Whatever else he does from here on out, he was a good pickup. I had forgotten how much of a prospect he was coming up: 55 FV and SF's #1 prospect per FG, #62 per BA, and the main piece in the Longoria deal.

I think you hit on the main difference between Bloom and Theo's strategies here: "Timing. In 2002-2004, the Red Sox could look at a guy like, say, Mark Bellhorn, to play 2B, and easily acquire him, because most teams thought Bellhorn had no value." There's just not that kind of talent being ignored anymore. Later in Theo's time with the Sox he had started trying to find value in injury-risk players, such as Penny, Smoltz, Lackey (with his weird incentive clause), etc. And I'm not sure the short deals is a strategy so much as a mandate from the ownership.

For Bloom's 2023 "plan" (I still don't really know what it is, except to bet that the team will have very good luck with health) to hit this year, Arroyo panning out is an important part of it.

I'm going to disagree on this a bit. It would help A LOT if he was healthy and good, playing 130 games at 2B and putting up 3.0 WAR. But things can still go well if Mondesi is mostly healthy and Hernandez shifts to 2B. Or if Rafaela is ready to contribute this year. Or if Valdez is as good as projections think he is. They have a lot of depth that consists of question marks.

I think that Bloom has generally done a good job considering the cards he was dealt. My main issue with him is that he seems too frequently infatuated with the idea of breaking up two pairs to try to draw into a straight.

Virtually none of Bloom's moves involve finding underappreciated talent, or exploiting market inefficiencies...unless he believes players with injury histories are being so undervalued in the market that this is a market inefficiency.

The market inefficiency Bloom has exploited well is he has avoided long-term guaranteed contracts with players who are bad risks for long-term guaranteed contracts. The problem with that is the solutions are limited. Good players are available on short-term deals only when they have significant risks: injury, performance, public relations nightmares. The second solution is to bring up prospects, but then you need a pipeline of prospects worth bringing up. The third solution is to have a team that simply isn't that good.

What we're seeing is a mix of all three solutions, except with a prospect pipeline that isn't good enough to overcome the problem on its own.

Maybe he's like those two young guys from the Big Short who bet on things that were very unlikely but not as unlikely as people thought. Or maybe he's the opposite.

If he's those two young guys then I'm Selena Gomez explaining it all poorly.

LOL, and Bivens is Steve Carell.

Man spring training is fun this year! My excitement is increasing with each and every crooked inning.

LOL, and Bivens is Steve Carell.

We live in an era of fraud in America. Not just in banking, but in government, education, religion, food, even baseball... What bothers me isn't that fraud is not nice. Or that fraud is mean. For fifteen thousand years, fraud and short sighted thinking have never, ever worked. Not once. Eventually you get caught, things go south. When the hell did we forget all that? I thought we were better than this, I really did.

But no. Every year, you people prove that we are not better than this. I grew up in an era that dictated that the Red Sox would lose, either by being lousy, or by choking. I never agreed with the latter. They lost because of bad fortune (when they were actually a good team). People had a fatalistic view of the Red Sox: They will lose, because they always do.

Nowadays, it's the opposite: They will win, because they've won 4 times since 2004!

The truth is that when they are good, they have a chance to win. To hold, on faith, that they will be good in any given year based on the past 20 years is nonsense. Every year, slight roster changes mean differences in results. Last year, they stunk, no question, and they haven't shown that the additions/subtractions they've made will be for the better.

I'm always here to tell it like I see it. This team will be mediocre this year, at best.

The Phillies.

Minor leaguers. Or, soon to be minor leaguers.

I like Arroyo. He's an adequate starter. I hope he plays 130+ games for them this year.

Standing Ovation in my office for 117.

Or, if you will, the 1-man wave.

You're not going to believe this--Paxton is hurt!

Who can I be? I'd like to say Michael Burry but I'm probably more like the ratings agency person who just kept saying everything was a-ok.

Minor leaguers. Or, soon to be minor leaguers.

Not that it matters, this is spring training, so he could have hit them off Steve Carleton and Cliff Lee and it wouldn't matter, but wrong.

Who can I be? I'd like to say Michael Burry but I'm probably more like the ratings agency person who just kept saying everything was a-ok.

You're Margot Robbie. Jose is Brad Pitt, willing to go along with the two young guys but not happy about any of this. SBPT is... Burry? Sure, that works. jacksone is Ryan Gosling. Nasty Nate is Bourdain.

At least it's not Paxton's elbow. Just pulled a hammy. Rub some rosin on it and get back on the mound.

Or: this just means his arm will stay healthy longer into the season so it's actually a blessing in disguise. After all, he was pitching well so we know his arm is healed! This way he'll be ready for the playoffs.

Pulling a hammy in spring training is the new "starting the season in June" like Clemens used to do. Yeah, that's the ticket.

It's been pointed out in a couple places that each of the last three times that Paxton tried to pitch in a competitive game, he's left with an injury before completing two innings. Oof.

You're Margot Robbie. Jose is Brad Pitt, willing to go along with the two young guys but not happy about any of this. SBPT is... Burry? Sure, that works. jacksone is Ryan Gosling. Nasty Nate is Bourdain.

I'll take it! Someone prepare me a bubble bath. I'll be sending you all a video.

You broke da page.

Sorry, I guess you're all just not ready for my bubble bath scene.

Still undefeated!!! 162-0 here we come!

Just kidding. 124-0-38 is more realistic.

I'll definitely take the Burry role!

The Boston Globe (Pete Abraham) wrote a column over the weekend projecting the most likely Red Sox Opening Day roster, updating it based on performance and injuries.

For all those wondering how we'd get all six of our best starters into the rotation to start the season, your worries are over! Three of the them (Paxton, Bello, and Whitlock) won't be ready to start the season, anyway.

His current projected pitching staff:

Sale
Kluber
Pivetta
Houck
Crawford

This has the effect of opening up a few bullpen spots, causing Abraham to currently project:

Jansen
Chris Martin
Schreiber
Brasier
Wyatt Mills
Bleier
Zach Kelly
Joely Rodriguez

The starter who will replace Chris Sale in late April when he injures his [select random body part] while [select seemingly innocuous activity that I guess is more dangerous than any of us thought]) would be Josh Winckowski.

The starter who will replace Chris Sale in late April when he injures his [select random body part] while [select seemingly innocuous activity that I guess is more dangerous than any of us thought]) would be Josh Winckowski.

And then I guess Whitlock replaces the next injured guy.

I'll be a lot more worried if Bello and Whitlock aren't back by mid-April. That could happen, of course, and it's another reason I don't understand the "sign Kluber and the rotation is set!" plan.

...

The starter who will replace Chris Sale in late April when he injures his SPLEEN while DANCING THE CAN CAN IN A CATCHER'S MASK AND A GREEN SWEATSHIRT would be Josh Winckowski.

The starter who will replace Chris Sale in late April when he injures his NON-THROWING ARMPIT while WATCHING THE MARATHON ON AN IRON-RAILED BALCONY would be Josh Winckowski.

Paging VI, I messed up this page and I'm sorry.

Only Jim or an editor who submitted the thread can edit individual posts. Gotta page Jose for this one.

The starter who will replace Chris Sale in late April when he injures his CORNEA while WATCHING VIDEO OF GUNNAR HENDERSON PRIOR TO OPENING DAY would be Josh Winckowski.

What's funny is that nobody is going to put:

The starter who will replace Chris Sale in late April when he injures his LEFT ARM while THROWING A PITCH would be Josh Winckowski.

2 scoreless innings for Sale today--nothing can go wrong now!

2 scoreless innings for Sale today--nothing can go wrong now!

Other than Turner leaving the game after taking a pitch to the face...

Other than Turner leaving the game after taking a pitch to the face...

Just saw it. Ouch. He turned into it.

Paging VI, I messed up this page and I'm sorry.

Just post that 60 more times and we'll be able to move on.

I'm gonna be optimistic about Sale's season. I think he'll be ok. When was his last pitching related injury? His arm should be as good as it will ever be, and that might be good.

I'm gonna be optimistic about Sale's season. I think he'll be ok. When was his last pitching related injury? His arm should be as good as it will ever be, and that might be good.

This is what happens. You get lured into this false sense of positivity...then BOOM, Sale steps on crack and breaks his back whilst strolling on a sidewalk somewhere in the world.

brace yourselves, fellas (some of you are going to LOVE this, I'll 'bet'):

"FanDuel Group and NESN today announced a multi-year sponsorship, designating FanDuel as the premiere sportsbook partner of NESN’s Red Sox and Bruins game day coverage.

The sponsorship marries the country’s preeminent gaming destination with New England’s top-rated sports network and home of the Bruins and Red Sox broadcasts. The deal includes commercials, in-game sponsorship integrations, and pre-game features highlighting FanDuel, bringing the sportsbook’s odds, insights and content directly to homes of New England’s biggest sports fans.

In addition to the broadcast integrations, NESN and FanDuel will partner on NESN’s sports betting site NESNBets.com. FanDuel will have prominent placement on the site."

I hate it. Both FD and DK are obnoxiously relentless, and it feels...wrong. So, I will abstain. I don't go so far as to say it shouldn't have been allowed, because, liberties.

But I will never use the platforms again.

bringing the sportsbook’s odds, insights and content directly to homes of New England’s biggest sports fans.

Awesome, more good stuff brought into the family home.

Can I have asbestos and mould included also as I need more useless sh*t coming into the family home.

if it helps, a national poll came out the other day where "avid sports fans" say there is too much gambling advertising during games by a margin of 2 to 1.

there may be a misconception that the most diehard fans can be incentivized to gamble as well.

huge backlashes on this issue in Europe have led to all sorts of limitations on the ads. we may be headed down that path as well.

The sponsorship marries the country’s preeminent gaming destination with New England’s top-rated sports network . . .

Can you bet via your TV remote, or is that in phase two?

I know spring training win-loss records are meaningless.
I know spring training win-loss records are meaningless.
I know spring training win-loss records are meaningless.

Spring training win-loss records are the only meaningful data we have about this team.

They're only meaningless if one's favorite team is doing terribly - just had that convo yesterday here at work.

For the Red Sox, it's a sign that a team comprised of a bunch of B's is far better than a team of C's and A's.

and you're damn right that's a killer B's reference.

Many years ago, SI had this silly ditty, based on "The Flowers that Bloom in the Spring" (apologies to Gilbert & Sullivan):

The homers that boom in the spring, tra-la,
Bring smiles to a green rookie's face.
But the homers that boom in the spring, alas,
Have nothing to do with the race.

Also, it's a really small sample, so that sort of cancels out how meaningless ST results are, right?

The CFBPS relies heavily on selective use of Spring Training results, and that's never been anything but accurate. Some of the numbers it is looking at this year:

Duran: 2.033 OPS
Dalbec: 1.324 OPS
Arroyo: 80 HR pace
Paxton: 0.00 ERA
Sale: Very healthy

Yes, Sale has extreme health. He's like E.T., making dead flowers grow and ####.

Sale has had time to recover from Tommy John surgery. He has the benefit of having less innings on that elbow/shoulder due to: that surgery, and the other silly injuries he got since. It's not a huge "if" that he'll stay healthy. Chances are, he will, and his arm was always a lively arm. He's their ace, and if any of the other SPs have good years this year, they'll be ok.

I know, I'm flip flopping a bit. I have no confidence in the offense. They'll be mediocre there. But the SP could be a real strength of the team, and by extension, the bullpen, not having to pitch as much as they did last year. I think they'll be ok, until they prove otherwise. :-)

I mean it. I'm not joking.

Kind of a bummer that Yoshida is playing in the WBC. It's fun and all, and I'm sure the team signed off on it when they signed him, but what he needs more than anything right now is to get used to MLB pitching.

You aren't going to believe this but Noah Song is injured! He has the very specific and real injury of back tightness and the Phillies are quite certain that he won't be ready for opening day! I, for one, am very surprised.

At the beginning of the off-season, I was kind of like, if we aren't really going to be "going for it" in 2023, then let's use this year to figure out what Boston has as part of the process of building the next legit contender. When Bogaerts left, and we didn't sign a frontline starting pitcher, it signified to me that the Red Sox were obviously not looking at 2023 as a "go for it" year. (I hadn't expected it, either...).

So, in that spirit, I wanted them to use the DH position to do a platoon of younger players who look like they can hit, but may not have an obvious position on the diamond. Specifically, I wanted to try an Enmanuel Valdez (getting most of the PAs as the LHH of the platoon) and Bobby Dalbec against lefties. It would be cheap, and would allow the team to see if either of these guys are worth keeping around in a platoon role. They also were both already on the 40-man.

Instead, the team signed Justin Turner, basically paying him $15m for one year (could be more like $22m for two years if Turner struggles in 2023, and accepts the player option for 2024). Presuming Turner comes back soon from his HBP injury, what's the upside to this signing? 2021-2022-ish JD Martinez, except three years older, but with some defensive value at the corners? What does this have to do with the team building a legit contender in the future?

I mention this because the reports on Valdez have been very good down in Florida, and he has not yet been sent down to the minor league camp. He has been playing a lot of second base so far, and could provide value as the 2B against tough righties (instead of Arroyo), and DH a few times a week. I still think Dalbec is good enough against lefties to provide some value in a platoon DH role, but we kind of know what he is, so whatever - Valdez is really the interesting bat.

I wish the Red Sox had either gone "all in" on getting long-term, premium-price talent, or had gone "all in" on using 2023 to figure out what they have in the organization. Instead, we're spending a lot of money on guys that, even if they are good this year, are neither getting Boston deep into the playoffs, nor likely to be a part of the next contending team (Duvall, Turner, Kluber, etc). What's the plan?

I think if they spent 2023 using Dalbec as a bat-only platoon they are basically advertising him as worthless. He's not a long-term solution as a platoon DH (for Boston or any other competitive team) and he's at this point a man without a role for Boston, so the goal should be flipping him to another team. They might not get much for him as it stands, but I think he sells better as "good, but blocked" than he does if he tops out at "great in a very narrow role nobody wants".

I think we will see plenty of Valdez this season without having left DH open for him.

I know you mention Kluber as not likely to be part of the next contending team, and you're probably right about that. But I fully expect the next contending team will have someone worse than him anyway.

The common thread with Kluber and Turner is that they are *plausibly* competitive acquisitions. They might not be actually competitive, but they are plausibly competitive. Those signings make it appear that Boston hasn't just tossed Bogaerts AND Martinez AND Eovaldi, and then sat on their hands. To you or me it might seem different than it would to fans in general, but fans in general buy tickets. For all the talk of Boston's offseason, people have noted Bogaerts' departure (and it's definitely noteworthy), but I haven't seen anyone lump in the lack of JDM or Eovaldi as problems. They were, at least on paper, replaced with name players, plausibly competitive players. The people who buy all the tickets would rather pay to see if Turner pans out in 2023 than pay to see if a Valdez/Dalbec DH platoon will bear fruit.

I mention this because the reports on Valdez have been very good down in Florida, and he has not yet been sent down to the minor league camp.

Jinx!

Regarding Dalbec, I think we're more at the point that we are happy if we can get anything useful out of him at all. If he's a right-handed platoon bat who can cover 1b, 3b, and DH, that can be a useful player. And if he's playing well, maybe other teams will still see him as a useful player who is being miscast? Relatedly, I saw a tweet from Speier that suggested that the key to Dalbec being able to make the team was him being able to back up SS. ???

Then it sounds like he's not making the team. The only way he's backing up SS is if he's in LF.

Why do you think the idea of Dalbec at SS as a utility infielder is DOA? I'm not saying it will stick, but it doesn't hurt to explore the idea if it has a viable chance of working out. To that point, they are playing him there a bit in spring training and he has played short in 1 actual games and was fine. If he can handle the move up the defensive spectrum it makes him a lot more valuable both for the Sox and as a trade chip. Until Story comes back they are squeezed as short, trying stuff like this has no risk, only opportunity.

Why do you think the idea of Dalbec at SS as a utility infielder is DOA?

Because he's not a particularly good infielder at any non-SS position. Dalbec should play SS if he's on the roster and their first three options are injured in the same game and they can't call up someone from Worcester until the next day.

I might not be fair in my assessment, but in full disclosure I am not a fan of "let's put him out there and maybe he'll surprise us on the upside" because it almost never works.

And there definitely is risk. If they're looking to trade him, and he gets hurt (never mind if he hurts another player in the process) then he's not getting traded, and it's unlikely he can get traded until he's both healthy and has had a chance at enough playing time to demonstrate he's worth trading for. I think an excellent way of injuring him is for him to play a demanding and unfamiliar position, especially when it's been stated in the media that if he doesn't succeed he's out of a job.

Totally agree with VI on Dalbec at SS. He's a big huge dude who looks sort of passable at 1B and not too good at 3B (by the numbers too). The only thing about him that fits there is his bat.

VI, do you think he has any trade value? I hope he does, but I feel like maybe he doesn't.

My short answer is that I think if he had trade "value" he would already have been traded. Everything at this point appears to be an attempt to create a market for his services, where the return to Boston is more worthwhile than just releasing him.

He has trade value as soon as a team has an injury at 1B. The problem is that there are dozens of alternatives to him, so a team needs to be convinced of his development potential or some other reason why he should be the preferred alternative. That Boston is still trying to play him in different spots is potentially an indicator that they believe in his development potential, and their sensible preference of Devers and Casas in the two positions where Dalbec has the most experience makes it at least plausible that they would try to tap into his development potential elsewhere on the diamond. I don't know if this is an earnest effort or a sales job, but I don't see why it can't be both.

The common thread with Kluber and Turner is that they are *plausibly* competitive acquisitions. They might not be actually competitive, but they are plausibly competitive. Those signings make it appear that Boston hasn't just tossed Bogaerts AND Martinez AND Eovaldi, and then sat on their hands.

Introducing your 2023 Potemkin Red Stockings!!!!

Yoshida blasted another jack in the WBC last night. We are going to win it all!

He's hitting .474/.571/.842 with 3 BB and 0 K. MVP season coming up!

If you're going to post about Yoshida at least have the decency to post it in the Yoshida thread I set up an hour earlier.

Oops

Looks like Corey Kluber is the opening day starter for Boston. That he has survived uninjured to this point is the real news of spring. He has pitched this spring about what one would expect given his recent (2021-22) history.