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The terrorists have now been defeated.
You will doubt ever having doubted Petagine, you bunch of doubting doubters!
I walked down Boylston St a little bit ago, and the riot police were aleady getting prepared.
And I'm working. Godammit. I won't really be able to focus if Petagine is playing, but I won't get to watch either.
Yesss, I'm doing nothing tomorrow. Afternoon game!
busy dancing in the streets!
there should be dancing in the streets!
right. that's why we aren't at our computers.
I'm soooo happy for Olga.
But once there is freedom, utopia is inevitable. There may be some last throes of evildoers benching Petagine, yet freedom cannot be stopped.
Karl Ravech, unlike Theo, clearly hates freedom.
Probably just waiting for the video to come down off the satellite of the jubilant crowd tearing down the hated wall that stood for so long between Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
Probably just waiting for the video to come down off the satellite of the jubilant crowd tearing down the hated wall that stood for so long between Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
David Hasselhoff is singing as the roaring crowd tears away chunks of that awful edifice.
8/3/05 Placed 1B John Olerud on the 15-day disabled listed, retroactive to Aug. 1, with a left hamstring strain and recalled 1B Roberto Petagine from Triple-A Pawtucket.
Who will be taken off the 40 man? My guess is that Bausher is waived; with the emergence of Pap and Delcarmen, there is no need for another possible RH pitcher to use if 8 others are hurt.
(BTW: Mikael, you were right the other day; I didn't think Theo would do it!)
My senitments exactly.
If an injury had to be what created this scenario, a Millar fat strain/pulled fat would have been better than the Olerud injury IMO.
That's some high comedy. "fat strain/pulled fat" (!)
BA 2nd
HR 7th (with the least # of AB of any of the top 15)
OBP 1st (.452, Ambres 2nd at .401)
SLG 1st (.635, Leifer 2nd at .595)
BB 1st
So, since Ambres is now hitting .385/.484/.654 in the majors after hitting a mere .294/.401/.495 in the minors, does that mean Petagine will hit about .428/.546/.839 in the majors?
Free Kevin Youkilis!
Free Kevin Youkilis!
Globe: Petagine Gets Long-Awaited Call - Red Sox first baseman John Olerud, who said he felt a twinge in his sore left hamstring during batting practice before last night's 8-5 victory over the Royals at Fenway Park, was placed on the 15-day disabled list. His roster spot was filled by Pawtucket first baseman Roberto Petagine, who will get a chance to show his talents starting today.
Manager Terry Francona said the team elected to go with Petagine, who has had a productive Triple A season. He was hitting .327 with 20 homers and 69 RBIs in 74 games at Pawtucket.
"[PawSox manager] Ron Johnson has been raving about him," Francona said of Petagine, who underwent knee surgery in spring training, preventing him from making the 25-man roster.
Herald: Petagine Gets Chance, Olerud Goes on DL - John Olerud's minor left hamstring strain has opened up an opportunity for Roberto Petagine to finally crack the Red Sox' roster.
Petagine, who has been destroying International League pitching at Triple-A Pawtucket, was called up following last night's 8-5 win over the Kansas City Royals when Olerud was placed on the 15-day disabled list. The former Japan Central League MVP with the Yakult Swallows was batting a .327 with 20 homers, 69 RBI and a .452 on-base percentage in 74 games for the PawSox.
"He's been tearing up Triple A," manager Terry Francona said of the 34-year-old first baseman/designated hitter. "This is a guy with a lot of experience. He's gone down there and done what everyone asked him to do. (Pawtucket manager) Ron Johnson has been raving about him for a while."
Is it possible that, by virtue of being 34 and a career NPB star, Petagine will be seen by Tito as some odd sort of "proven veteran"? That would be cool.
I'm...just...so...happy.
Come on, Biff, let's be realistic. I see no reason to expect more than a .350/.500/.675 line.
60-80 PA's
.341/.403/.542
45-60 pa's
.278/.360/.480
His last year in the Majors, he hit .405/.468 with Cincinnati in 78 PA's. After that year he determined he was sick of being jerked around so he went to Japan, made a boat-load of dough, raked for 6 seasons and is now back.
Now some rational ####...
Petagine's MLE has been hanging around the 900-950 OPS range for a good month or so, now. I discount a little bit because that's better than he projected preseason. And because a major league quality hitter, I think, will do a little better against AAA pitching than would be expected. MLE's are not derived from the numbers of MLB-regular type players, but rather from more marginal players and prospects. Petagines are a rare exception.
So, 375/475, I think.
40-60 PA's
.301/.389/.480
Is he signed for next year?
now THAT is CFBPS.
Petagine isn't signed for next year but I believe he is eligible for arbitration since he does not have 6 years of major league service time. This is unless he has something in his contract that makes him a free agent like Hideki Matsui.
I actually think Hideki might be comparable to Petagine as a hitter if Petagine has not hit the decline phase of his career. Their hitting ability seemed similar prior to 2004 when Petagine had an off year because of his knee. Based on his performance this year, Petagine seems to be back to his pre - 2004 level of production.
57AB
One game-winning HR.
also, anybody notice we're up 4.5 on the Yankees? Just saying, it happened pretty quickly.
sssshhh you'll jinx it!
I think Darren nailed the Bermanism this spring - Roberto Petagine in a bottle
My copy of the standings says we're 10 games up.
The extent to which Tek, Damon, Manny, and Ortiz (with help from Nixon) are carrying the team is impressive.
Sadly for Orioles fans, their fade means that Tejada and Roberts won't get the MVP love they deserve. Michael Young likewise. So basically we have...a bunch of Yankees and Red Sox on the position player side, and I can't think of a pitcher who really merits it.
So, all we need is Jason Stark and Gammons to start slowly saying, "Varitek could be an MVP candidate." Then Buster Olney and Page 2 will start writing, "Is Varitek an MVP candidate," then it gets debated on PTI, and suddenly we have an MVP candidate.
Yeah, and at the time Boston had 9 runs on 3 hits. That was pretty funny.
I really hope Petagine doesn't get buried after one bad game. I'd like to at least get to see him play in a Red Sox uniform.
I tried a different approach. Here's what I did:
1. I assumed that the probability of Team A beating Team B was...
a * ( 1 - b )p(A>B) = -------------------
a + b - 2 * a * b
...where a and b are the winning percentage at the "true" level, for Team A and Team B respectively. In words, the right side works out to:
(Prob. that A wins and B loses)
-------------------------------------------
(Prob A wins and B loses, + Prob B wins and A loses)
2. Given each AL team's actual performance against each of the other AL teams, I regressed to solve for a and b (and c for Team C, and d for Team D, and so on).
I did 1. and 2. to mitigate the effects of strength of schedule. But, to be honest, at this point in the season it doesn't make much of a difference. (The Twins went from .528 to a regressed .514 vs. the AL; the White Sox went from .648 to .633; and Texas went from .500 to .511; but those were the most significant jumps. The Red Sox regression ended in line with actual.)
3. Using each team's remaining schedule, I then used the formula in 1. and the "true" win %s from 2. to solve for the expected number of wins.
4. Adding in the actual wins to date, here's what I get:
BOS 92-70 -- CHW 105-57 -- LAA 93-69 --NYY 86-76 6 CLE 84-78 21 OAK 92-70 1
TOR 85-77 7 MIN 83-79 22 TEX 82-80 11
BAL 77-85 15 DET 77-85 28 SEA 68-94 25
TBD 65-97 27 KCA 55-107 50
This method doesn't take into account differences in home/road performance, so I still feel confident in the Red Sox finishing with 94 wins.
And, obviously, this doesn't take into account any roster changes. The Yankees will likely undergo several changes soon, with most of their pitching staff on the road to DL recovery. But I like the size of their expected deficit.
Or giving up just enough to win...
NYY 86-76 6
TOR 85-77 7
BAL 77-85 15
TBD 65-97 27
Remember that thread where someone asked where we thought Baltimore would be in the standings by Labor Day?
Ole Joe Bivens said they'd be in 4th place, double digits back of first, with the Yankees and Toronto battling for second. Yes indeed I did.
Therefore, I think these projections are accurate. Good job.
Davenport's projections, updated today:
BOS 92.4 69.6 playoff %:84.2
NYY 86.1 74.9 playoff %:30.4
Now if ARod could just stop bashing 9th inning homers.
I didn't see this posted elsewhere, but Narveson was DFA'ed yesterday to make room for Petagine on the 40-man.
Thanks, VI. An odd choice.
BTW: can someone tell me if he was really DFA'ed or if he was waived? I.e., is the period to claim him 3 or 10 days? As he wasn't in the majors, I think the proper course is to waive him -- he is already assigned. But, I don't know.
And, while we are on the subject, note that BK has been getting progressively better each month . . . (Note that he would do that here, or that we'd have the patience for him to do that hear. Just sayin', is all.)
On Petagine, how much was last night his fault? I only saw the highlights. It looked, on the glance you get on ESPN, like Mueller's throw was unplayable, but Timlin's might have been. What was the take here?
I realize that when I blame Freedom for the sins of other individuals, the terrorists have already won. I apologize.
So, could he have played Mueller's throw? It looked like a disaster, airmailed to the home plate side, but I only saw it once, early this morning.
I'm guessing that Petagine has sat the last two because of concerns over his knee on the turf. One of three is about right if that's the case. I was surprised that they didn't PH him for Graf last night, but then, I think that shows his stature on the team (very low).
I certainly hope he puts up a couple hits today.
Check out Jeff Francis: 3.59 ERA at home, 7.24 on the road.
He was indeed DFA'ed. Doing so removed him from the 40-man roster immediately, but still gives the team a chance to explore their (trade) options. Putting someone on waivers does not clear a roster spot immediately.
.286.375.357 (because of a completely bullshit scoring)
Thank goodness he is only allowed to play half the game. Thank goodness they take such pains to get his glove out of the lineup by the 5th, but would never have done the same for Millar. Maybe he needs to start drinking JD before games, dying his hair, doing stupid handshakes, and just being an all around dork.
Yeah, that was definitely a double, and he should be at .286/.375/.429. No matter, he'll keep climbing anyway.
He'd probably be better than that right now if Tito hadn't decided he'd rather have two impressive Kapler groundouts.
I have given up on him winning the job over Millar, and I'm now just hoping that he'll stay as a bat on the bench.
no he didn't.
WHAT THE HELL DO THEY HAVE AGAINST PETAGINE!!!???
Other than the 5th inning defensive sub against Texas, I've been pretty happy with the use of Freedom. Millar is not such a bad hitter that he shouldn't be platooned, especially given the huge upgrade in outfield defense when he isn't there.
The bigger issue, for me, is what happens when Trot returns. That's the decision point. I don't have a lot of optimism there.
I've seen little evidence of the former, and the latter's pretty irrelevant. You can easily get Millar out of RF by sitting Millar down.
Other than the 5th inning defensive sub against Texas, I've been pretty happy with the use of Freedom. Millar is not such a bad hitter that he shouldn't be platooned, especially given the huge upgrade in outfield defense when he isn't there.
I don't mind the platoon either. My hope is that the Sox come to their senses and decide that, when Olerud comes back, Youks can platoon with Petagine, and Olerud can come in for D.
The bigger issue, for me, is what happens when Trot returns. That's the decision point. I don't have a lot of optimism there.
Olerud's due back first. If Trot returns in September (which sounds about right, doesn't it?), then we have 40 spots to use. What happens when Olerud comes off the DL in a couple days will be more telling.
If he gets recalled and freedom sent packing, well, that'll be pretty incredible. I've been projecting that Petagine has another two weeks to start against RHPs before the crunch. Then Nixon and Olerud come back, and Tito will have to do some managing.
You're probably right about the defensive replacements. I haven't been worrying about it too much because I've just come to accept that Tito thinks 1B defense is more important in late innings than any other position. That doesn't really make it excusable, but I have sorta stopped thinking about it much.
Larry Lucchino may take our lives, but he'll never take... Our Freedom!!
Conor Jackson:Tony Clark::Roberto Petagine:Kevin Millar ... maybe not exactly, as clark is clearly better than kevin millar, but you get the point. and i'm not giving up on them completely. it's just this year's team is ####### pissing me off. especially the millar/schilling/francona triumvirate that seems to be running the show.
"John Olerud will be activated Wednesday. His hamstring has healed up, forcing Roberto Petagine back to Triple-A "
seeing as how it's will carroll, i'd say it's safe to assume that he's full of ####. what a ####### #######. he's done a pretty good job of dragging down baseballprospectus don't you think?
There are two more weeks before the roster expand. All they need to do is extend Olerud's rehab a wee bit, or option Youks - it's not like he's getting ####### playing time.
If it really happens, it's straight bullshit.
Uh, until this year, all of Millar's starting seasons were pretty similar, except for a bit of a power uptick way back in '01. I wouldn't call any of them a "career" year.
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