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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Sunday, August 04, 2019UnacceptableWell the good news is they aren’t dead yet but at this point pretending the 2019 Boston Red Sox are going to mount any kind of defense of their 2018 World Series title is a fool’s errand to say the least. The simple reality is the pitching has been a complete disaster and frankly it’s a bit of a shocker. From top to bottom they have underperformed and I can’t help but feel like this falls heavily on the shoulders of Alex Cora and management in general (both above and below him) for the arrogant approach to the season. Having said that I think the Sox should enter 2020 as a 90+ win playoff and division contender. The future is bright. Let’s look at reasons for optimism moving forward with the continued hope that they will right the ship and earn a Wild Card spot. Rafael Devers - No reason not to start here. Whatever else has happened this year the presumptive superstar (and Ben Cherington’s greatest gift) exploded in 2019. Not only has become a genuine star at the plate his defense has improved dramatically. After a truly awful start he found his footing defensively and has become a very good defender with a particular emphasis on some truly impressive range. I look forward to watching him for the next several years. Extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts - We’ll start with the one no one will argue. Xander signed the long extension and elevated his game impressively. Quite simply he has become the superstar the Sox have hoped he would become. Like Devers he is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Sale is probably a bit more concerning given his season but I think the long term will be good. He continues to lead all of baseball in K/9 and his FIP is over a run better than his actual ERA suggesting that even without any rebound his 2020 will be far superior to 2019. On top of that I think in retrospect it should not be a huge shock he has struggled a bit. This is a guy with a history of breaking down late in seasons. Coming off a year where he worked much further into the season and had a shortened off-season some residual problems don’t seem surprising. I expect him to be excellent in 2020. The Minors - The Sox emptied out the system for the 2016-2018 run and it is hard to argue with the results. They did an excellent job (not unlike the late-90s Yankees) of keeping the right guys and selling at the right time on others to acquire key contributors. 2019 has seen some impressive contribution from the youth at the big league level with Michael Chavis in particular looking like a guy who can be a useful part. Behind that the Sox have seen some players show some growth. Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Triston Casas and Gilberto Jimenez have all had strong seasons. It’s not a top 10 system or anything but unlike where they were this year (and frankly last) there are signs of help on the way. Christian Vazquez* - OK, it’s possible, not definite but possible, that the Sox chose the right catcher from the choice of Blake Swihart or Vazquez. Swihart will probably still have four or five All Star Games in him of course but Vazquez looks like a genuinely strong piece for the future. I suspect the bat will come back some in 2020 but he looks like a guy who can be productive and of course he is a weapon behind the plate. There is a reason the Sox are third in the league in fewest steals allowed. * I swear to God I was typing that paragraph and then Vazquez homered about halfway through it. Hey, this has been a bust of a season. I think we all knew they weren’t a 108 win team and similarly they aren’t the mid-80s win team they are looking like they are going to wind up. I think with just some modest adjustments (SIGN A RELIEVER WHO CAN THROW A FREAKIN’ STRIKE THAT DOESN’T LAND ON THE PIKE) there is no reason this team should set its sights on anything less than division contention in 2020. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K
Posted: August 04, 2019 at 09:41 PM | 52 comment(s)
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1. villageidiom Posted: August 05, 2019 at 08:54 AM (#5868302)Don't get me wrong: there's nobody I'd want out there other than Pedroia when he was at the top of his game. But it's been evident for a long time now that Pedroia will never be remotely near that level of performance again. We're done with the whole charade of bulking up his knee with chewing gum and duct tape so he could get back to being the Pedroia we needed. They can pursue a long-term replacement instead of just biding time until he's "back".
Literally my only concern for the remainder of the season is ensuring the culture doesn't sour to the point that Mookie's decision-making is impacted. I think that's probably a long shot, but you know, until they sign a contract I'll be anxious.
What we've learned from the process are these, IMO:
1. Giving the players basically an extra month to get acclimated has put them one month behind the rest of the league, all season long. Now, maybe that pays off in September when everyone else gets worn down. But until then it sucks.
2. Easing into the season might have had a health benefit. Looking at the IL stints this year we had Price out for a brief time; Eovaldi out for an extended time; Pearce and Moreland out for extended time; and of course Pedroia. All of that strikes me as normal for those players, except for maybe one of the 1B. Holt had a scratched cornea from his adorable son; various players had back injuries, and none of that seemed like it stemmed from the short off-season. I think whether the extra time helped depends on whether the underperforming players (such as Sale) are members of the John Lackey Memorial Hidden Injury Club. If their underperformance has been due to injury, one could argue that the slow start to the season didn't have a health benefit. But if they just suck, then easing into the season actually kept injuries pretty smooth this year, and the easing was more of an effectiveness issue. That might sound like splitting hairs, and maybe it is. But it's good to recognize what actually worked and what didn't.
Four World Championships in 17 years is a "ghastly mistake"? Wow!
Yeah, but his schtick used to be semi-grounded in real events. This post is just wack-a-doo.
I think you give him too much credit.
On the other hand, this is 100% true.
Yeah I really regret those Sale and JD Martinez acquisitions.
Just for reference the top 12 players this year by WAR;
Betts, Bogaerts, Workman, Vazquez - Theo
Devers, EdRod, Benintendi, Chavis - Cherington
Martinez, Sale, Price, Walden- DD
And just because I was curious the 2018 World Champs;
Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley - Theo
Benintendi, Porcello, EdRod, Wright - Cherington
Sale, Martinez, Price, Kimbrel, Velazquez (!) - DD
Honestly Cherington is a bit better than I expected on these two lists.
I'd dearly love to rebuild the prospect machine -- Betts, Bogearts and Devers (and EdRod) growing year by year is truly wonderful, and builds champions. To do that, we need to lose Dombrowski.
Don't know why my simple views get me called a fruitcake by everyone, but I'm sort of used to it by now!
Because the whole era you deemed a ghastly mistake won four World Series.
True but;
- that’s 14 years they DIDN’T win a World Series.
- how does this 18 year stretch compare to other 18 year eras of Red Sox baseball. The Yawkey era certainly had similar if not better success.
- if they only had held onto Duquette they’d be thriving like the model organization that is the Baltimore Orioles right now.
I'm sorry, fellow fans.
I think the only way to undo this is to send the rest of us to Mexico as a counterweight. Or just me, just me is fine too.
You're not wrong on the big point- Sale, Price, and Eovaldi are going to need to be better going forward, given the money involved. But big picture I don't think it's as dire as you present. Porcello and Sandoval(!) combine to account for about $39 million this year as far as the luxury tax is calculated. They should have some room to maneuver.
My unshakable fear is that at least two of them have some kind of medical/structural issue that could prevent that from happening.
Fortunately, the line-up is fantastic. Bounce-back from the pitching staff and we're in the thick of things.
It depends what your choice for x% is. Right now I am looking at the Baseball prospectus play-off odds which put the Red Sox chances to make the play-offs at below 5%. You can let 24 guys on the roster continue to go all-out to get that 1 in 20 chance (to play on the road in a 1 game crap-shoot), but if stopping now makes Chris Sale better in 2020, do you stop him now?
Chris Sale had been reading this and gave you the big FU about shutting him down this year with this very tidy 99 pitch, 8 IP 2H, 13K outing today.
Yeah I really regret those Sale and JD Martinez acquisitions.
Well, I don't think you should, but you're right not to get all worked up about JDM. He wasn't critical to last year's success, though he had a good year, and he's not wowing anyone this year either. He'll certainly opt in to his option year for 2020, and that's money we could probably spend better somewhere else.
Sale's a trickier one. Kopech having blown out his arm almost immediately helps make one side of the case, sort of. This year has continued to be inexplicable for him. I guess we'll see!
No way, Jose.
I was (gently) mocking/arguing with you! I don't regret those at all, of course, they've been great.
Chris Sale is a great pitcher; it is hard to argue with that. The only question is the number of pitches left in his arm and how to best allocate them among the seasons he has in Boston.
I love you optimism!! But I am having trouble mimicking it this morning.
Haven't done a comprehensive search, but I'll go with the 1954 Indians as the most talented team down 0-3 in a postseason series.
All the moves the Sox have made will be wiped out if they do not resign him to a long, hopefully career, contract.
Long time to sit at the window and wait for Spring, but I feel like I need to get the chair ready.
I’d throw a chair, but what’s the point?
The upside to the season: no overtaxed pitchers come Spring Training!
And let's play the speculation game! What will it take to sign Mookie?
I'm thinking 10/340 or 8/295 type of thing.
And opt outs! Can't forget those.
13/330
10/300
12/428
Sit down with him, get him in the middle of that somewhere and there is no reason an agreement can’t be reached. 12/350, maybe push it to 360 to hit that “$30 million” threshold. Haggle a bit but no reason not to get it done.
Need to keep some money back for Devers!
He's Dwight Evans with better baserunning, better fielding, and a better potential peak. That is a no doubt HoF player. Also, not really sure how calling someone a Robinson Cano talent is supposed to be a bad thing; Cano has put up 53.8 WAR in the last 10 years, including his current negative value year.
I'd add Arenado at 8/260.
One thing to remember about these numbers is that Mookie is projected to be better than Harper and Machado, but won't be a free agent until age 28, instead of 26. That means that a 10 year deal for him includes ages 36 and 37 instead of ages 26 and 27. I did a very quick and dirty comparison, and it looks like a fair contract, based on the Machado/Harper precedents, would be something like 11/325, including the age 27 arb year at about $26MM (to match Arenado's record number).
Basing this on Trout's contract, you come in at around 11/$236MM. Arenado's really interesting in that he was in the same situation that Mookie faces this offseason--one year away from FA--and was one year older. The Rockies really paid through the nose for him, and based on his rate, Mookie would be worth something like 11/$380MM.
Overall, I guess you could really end up anywhere in the range of 10/300 to 12/350. Either side might not be comfortable with that.
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