BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: We Still Know Nothin’

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1. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: April 21, 2016 at 12:31 PM (#5201547)

1887 manager Joe McCarthy born
1958 BoX get 16 on base, strand 13, lose 2 in DPs, lose 4-1 to NYY. Ted Williams solo HR their only run
2012 BOX trades Marlon Byrd to BOX. [Note: I might have some of the details of this wrong]
2012 BOX blows 9-0 lead, lose 15-9 to NYY

2. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 21, 2016 at 12:54 PM (#5201568)

I'd like to point out the last time there was a Sox therapy post, the Red Sox win the world series. Coincidence?

3. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 21, 2016 at 12:55 PM (#5201571)

Christian Vazquez are fun to watch at the plate because regardless of result their at bats always seem to be battles

Unless Vazquez is facing Chris Archer.

4. villageidiom Posted: April 21, 2016 at 01:01 PM (#5201578)

Hurray! Hurrah! Huzzah! Hoo-rah!

Good to have Sox Therapy back.

5. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 21, 2016 at 01:27 PM (#5201612)

Also, David Ortiz has a 199 OPS+, that would be the highest for any Sox player in their final season, besting Ted Williams 190.

6. bbmck Posted: April 21, 2016 at 01:39 PM (#5201622)

Ortiz with a higher OPS+ than Ted at same age:

Player         OPS+ Age  PA   BA  OBP  SLG
David Ortiz     171  31 667 .332 .445 .621
Ted Williams    168  31 416 .317 .452 .647
David Ortiz     199  40  53 .295 .415 .659
Ted Williams    114  40 331 .254 .372 .419 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/21/2016.

7. bbmck Posted: April 21, 2016 at 02:03 PM (#5201649)

Ted+ in OPS+ when both Ted and the active player have 300+ PA:

Age 20: Trout 168, A-Rod 161, Ted 160
Age 21: Trout 179, Ted 161
Age 29: Pujols, Hanley & Ted 189
Age 31: A-Rod 176, Votto 174, Ortiz 171, Ted 168
Age 32: Miggy 170, Ted 164

8. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 21, 2016 at 02:03 PM (#5201650)

You know, it says a lot about how good he's been that I didn't even think to mention Hanley's defense at first base. He's very quickly put an end to that particular discussion.

9. villageidiom Posted: April 21, 2016 at 02:25 PM (#5201672)

You know, it says a lot about how good he's been that I didn't even think to mention Hanley's defense at first base. He's very quickly put an end to that particular discussion.

He has. Of course, it won't take much to restart that discussion if he slips up. (Not saying I'll start it up. He's earned a pass from me on the subject. I'm just saying in Boston it won't take much for people to turn on him.)

His footwork at the base has been good; he hasn't been straying from first too far on grounders to the 1B-2B hole. He hasn't been a pickin' machine, but he's made some good picks at 1B. Well done, Hanley.

10. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: April 21, 2016 at 02:37 PM (#5201682)

Good rundown of the roster Jose, just wanted to add some kvetching about Farrell. I first-guessed (honest!) pulling Koji after a nine-pitch 8th in the home opener (game tied going into the 9th, why use all the big guns?), and IIRC he's done that again since. Also, right now Chris Young has the same number of ABs vs RHP as LHP, which seems like poor managing.

Also, yay Sox Therapy!

11. Chip Posted: April 21, 2016 at 03:25 PM (#5201753)

The Sox hadn't faced a lefty starter until this week, and have only faced two so far. Farrell has to get Young ABs somewhere.

Is it now time to be concerned about Price, who just blew up in the 4th inning?

12. karlmagnus Posted: April 21, 2016 at 03:26 PM (#5201758)

Looks like Price, like so many Sox acquisitions of recent years, has suddenly turned from an ace into a deuce, or maybe at best a Knave, as soon as the Sox acquired him. Maybe these are early days, but from experience in recent years, there is a pattern here. At least the home-grown players don't cost a fortune when they flop.

Yes, and Yay Sox Therapy. I just didn't want it to become TOO therapeutic!

13. Chip Posted: April 21, 2016 at 03:30 PM (#5201767)

On cue, Hanley muffs a backhand to extend an already horrible inning.

14. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 21, 2016 at 03:33 PM (#5201773)

Is it now time to be concerned about Price, who just blew up in the 4th inning?

Yes, they just need to not have Swihart catch him and he'll be fi...oh wait. No really, I'm not the least bit concerned about Price. He's striking out a #### ton of people, the .366 BABIP is going to go UP after the 6 for 12 (if my math is right). That'll change.

I first-guessed (honest!) pulling Koji after a nine-pitch 8th in the home opener (game tied going into the 9th, why use all the big guns?), and IIRC he's done that again since.

I wonder how able Koji is to go more than one inning at a pop these days. He only did it once last year.

15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 21, 2016 at 03:39 PM (#5201789)

Is it now time to be concerned about Price, who just blew up in the 4th inning?

I'd be at least a little concerned. His velocity is way down versus last year.

His first 3 starts looks like he's down about 2 MPH from April last year. Could be nothing, but it's often a sign of trouble.

16. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: April 21, 2016 at 04:17 PM (#5201844)

Oh incidentally, I've been quite impressed with the speed at which every tentacle of the Sox media machine has gotten on-message regarding the importance of a good defensive catcher. Was a bit worried that with LL gone, the team's propaganda would suffer, but seems to be in good form.

17. Nasty Nate Posted: April 21, 2016 at 04:24 PM (#5201851)

Welcome back, Sox Therapy!

18. covelli chris p Posted: April 21, 2016 at 05:26 PM (#5201903)

free torey lovullo!

19. Chip Posted: April 21, 2016 at 05:50 PM (#5201929)

As I noted in Game Chatter, Remy was all over the "very strange" bullpen management this afternoon.

20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 21, 2016 at 06:01 PM (#5201937)

Sox Therapy returns; Red Sox blow 5-1 lead in a 12-8 loss. Coincidence?

21. Dan Posted: April 21, 2016 at 07:39 PM (#5201990)

free torey lovullo!

This.

If the team isn't above .500 by May 19th, I think that's the day Farrell is canned.

22. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 21, 2016 at 07:54 PM (#5201995)

What's the significance of that date? Unless it goes completely down the tubes I think he has until Memorial Day.

23. Dan Posted: April 21, 2016 at 07:55 PM (#5201996)

In the date range I would expect it to become an issue and it's the day off after a road trip.

24. SY Ruined School Lunches! Posted: April 21, 2016 at 08:08 PM (#5201999)

That time period is also one of the softer parts of the schedule and they really should be over .500 if they are any good. I think they will be.

And welcome back Sox Therapy!

25. SY Ruined School Lunches! Posted: April 21, 2016 at 11:05 PM (#5202154)

At least we arent the Yankees

26. 185/456(GGC) Posted: April 22, 2016 at 09:43 AM (#5202261)

I caught the last part of the game on my ride home from work. It was a losing effort, but the Red Sox make a nice companion on my long commute. Two things:

1.) I didn't catch why Koji didn't come into the game.

2.) When Ortiz got on, I thought to myself that in the old days, a pinchrumnner would've come in for him. Might not be the optimal move, because you lose his bat, but that used to be baseball CW, IIRC. But the Sox bench was only 3 deep yesterday. I was thinking of the MFYs of the Torre era this morning. Didn't they have a deep enough bench to rest players on getaway day? I've been reading a bit on the San Antonio Spurs and it seems like resting players throughout the year helps. But then, I remembered the 2004 ALCS (always a good thing) and IIRC, their bullpen was toast. My point is that I think some team will eventually bring back the deeper bench/shorter bullpen. Not sure how it will work out for them, but I imagine we're resting the pitchers almost too much at the expense of position players.

Good to see ST back.

27. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 22, 2016 at 09:58 AM (#5202276)

This is snippets of Farrell's explanation from WEEI.com. I think not going to Layne to start the ninth then handing off to Koji or even Noe is the one that mystifies me.

After the game, it was revealed that the manager basically had four relievers who were unavailable — Craig Kimbrel, Junichi Tazawa, Heath Hembree and Robbie Ross Jr.

Kimbrel had pitched four times in five days before not appearing Wednesday. Tazawa was coming off three straight days of outings. And both Hembree and Ross had been stretched to 3 1/3 and three-inning outings, respectively, Tuesday.

While the Red Sox were hoping to stay away from Koji Uehara, he did warm up and would have entered the game in the the ninth to close things out only if the Sox took the lead.

And with Matt Barnes having to play long man after Price’s outing, that left Cuevas, Tommy Layne and Ramirez.

Farrell chose to not to bring in Uehara to face Souza with two outs in the eighth, with the Sox having stayed away from the reliever after he threw 25 pitches Monday. As the manager explained after the game, he still needed a reliever to close things out in the ninth if the Sox rallied in the eighth...

“We had a number of guys unavailable,” Farrell said. “As a result, we knew we were going to be in a situation where Cuevas is going to have to give us multiple innings if we didn’t get a deep start, and that’s what took place here today.”

This at least explains using Cuevas in the 8th. For what it's worth I think Cuevas pitched well. Just by comparison I thought he was a lot better than the guy who pitched the Tampa 8th. Two warning track flyouts, a hit, a walk and a rocket right at the second baseman. That was a frustrating inning. As a friend said, this was the first game this year that really pissed me off.

28. 185/456(GGC) Posted: April 22, 2016 at 11:12 AM (#5202381)

One of my coworkers has been calling for Farrell's head since the game where Swihart dropped the popup. He thinks that Farrell would've been gopne last year were it not for the cancer diagnosis.

Was Lovullo the next Mickey Mantle according to Sparky Anderson or was that some other young Tiger?

29. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 22, 2016 at 11:21 AM (#5202397)

Lovullo was one of them. Chris Pittaro too. I think there is a reasonable chance Farrell would have been gone if not for the diagnosis. I'm not convinced it would make a difference. He's not a great game manager but any problems that exist are on guys like Price (7.06), Buchholz (5.84), Kelly (7.30) and Ramirez (.664). The key players are not doing their jobs right now. I fully expect a lot of that to change.

Managers are hired to be fired and after two straight last place finishes it's hard to say he hasn't "earned" the right to be fired but I'm not convinced it's going to make a meaningful difference. Like I said initially, I thought this was a third place team when the year started and I haven't seen anything to make me feel either better or worse about that.

30. Nasty Nate Posted: April 22, 2016 at 11:24 AM (#5202403)

He thinks that Farrell would've been gopne last year were it not for the cancer diagnosis.

I've encountered that sentiment a lot.

31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 22, 2016 at 11:30 AM (#5202416)

Despite getting thumped, Price's velocity was quite a bit better yesterday. So, that has to cheer Sox fans up.

32. 185/456(GGC) Posted: April 22, 2016 at 11:37 AM (#5202424)

Ramirez (.664).

When I first read that I wasn't sure if you meant his OPS or his fielding pctage. But, AFAICT, he's handling first base.

33. Nasty Nate Posted: April 22, 2016 at 12:01 PM (#5202464)

Early-season prospect stat curiosities:

Benintendi now has 6 triples on the young season.
His teammate Moncada has 13 SB and 14 BB in 13 games.

34. Chip Posted: April 22, 2016 at 12:40 PM (#5202520)

Pete Abraham signs onto Dan's May 19
target.

35. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: April 22, 2016 at 02:24 PM (#5202736)

One of my coworkers has been calling for Farrell's head since the game where Swihart dropped the popup.

You have to touch the ball to drop it.

36. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 03:41 PM (#5202816)

Was Lovullo the next Mickey Mantle according to Sparky Anderson or was that some other young Tiger?

Barbaro Garbey was the next Roberto Clemente.

37. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 03:43 PM (#5202818)

Moncada has an OBP over .500. Another nice note: Travis has a line of .322 .359 .458 in AAA, though with way too many Ks.

I agree about Farrell. I think he'd be gone if not for the diagnosis, but possibly not. If the team had rebounded under him the way it did under Luvello, he'd probably have earned some rope.

He's not a great game manager but any problems that exist are on guys like Price (7.06), Buchholz (5.84), Kelly (7.30) and Ramirez (.664).

This is true to a point, but if you're not good at game managing AND your players aren't performing to expectations for several years straight, what is it that you're contributing as a manager?

38. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 03:49 PM (#5202826)

Benintendi's 6 triples would have tied him for 6th place last year in the Carolina League. There's a decent chance that he could get promoted at midseason and still lead the league (12 was tops last year).

As for Moncada's steals, he just needs another 142 this year for the minor league record. He does seem be stealing at a ridiculous rate this year.

39. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 03:50 PM (#5202827)

And neither of those guys has a HR yet.

40. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 03:59 PM (#5202836)

I like to say lots of stuff.

Sox Prospects has a poll on whether to fire Farrell: 79 percent yes, 6 percent no, 14 percent are 90 percent there.

41. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:02 PM (#5202839)

Travis has a line of .322 .359 .458 in AAA, though with way too many Ks.

You ready to have your mind blown...Sam Travis K rate is 21.9%. The American League average this year is 21.9%. "Too many Ks" is just something that almost doesn't exist anymore. I'd like to see that come down a bit (AAA is no MLB) but I don't think he's at a rate to be worried about. He's marginally better than the PawSox team average (22.5%) and marginally worse than International League average (21.4%).

Strikeouts are just ####### crazy these days man.

42. SY Ruined School Lunches! Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:02 PM (#5202840)

Benintendis got more triples than strikeouts. 6.3 K%

43. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:04 PM (#5202844)

I'm also glad this place is back so I can ask if anyone at all misses Orsillo. Do you? I certainly don't.

44. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:04 PM (#5202845)

Yes I do. Which isn't to say I don't like O'Brien, he's fantastic. I loved Orsillo though.

45. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:16 PM (#5202860)

O'Brien is nondescript for me, which makes him a huge upgrade.

46. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:19 PM (#5202865)

"Too many Ks" is just something that almost doesn't exist anymore.

You're right and I should have been clearer. His game is making a lot of hard contact and hitting for high averages. The K rate is a huge spike for him, so I expect he'll either bring it down considerably or struggle quite a bit.

47. covelli chris p Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:37 PM (#5202889)

"Too many Ks" is just something that almost doesn't exist anymore.

that's not true. especially when you're evaluating minor leaguers. as the level of competition goes up (as you rise in minor league levels), strike out rates increase proportionally. what this means, is that players with high strike out rates have their total production hurt more than players with lower strike out rates as they move up in competition. this is why you see contact ability as an important factor when evaluating minor leaguers.

imho, this is a factor in the royals recent run of success in the playoffs as well as the a's playoff failures over the years ... players with good contact ability fare better against the elite pitching that you see in the playoffs, when compared with take and rake types.

48. covelli chris p Posted: April 22, 2016 at 04:47 PM (#5202895)

re: sam travis, one of the reasons to get excited about him is his low strike out rates before this year. i would expect it to spike at AAA, as he faces more advanced pitching.

49. Darren

Posted: April 22, 2016 at 10:24 PM (#5203206)

sam travis, one of the reasons to get excited about him is his low strike out rates before this year. i would expect it to spike at AAA, as he faces more advanced pitching.

Well, of course, but it's doubled (2 more tonight!). That's pretty huge.

On another note, Shaw's at 1.2 bWAR is already about what I hoped for... for this whole season.

50. Dale Sams Posted: April 22, 2016 at 10:43 PM (#5203217)

This team, with so much home grown talent, is very watchable.

51. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 22, 2016 at 11:02 PM (#5203228)

That has been true the last couple years. I'd like to see results.

52. Dale Sams Posted: April 22, 2016 at 11:57 PM (#5203261)

That has been true the last couple years. I'd like to see results.

Really? The last two years are a blur to me.

This year so far I feel like I'm actually seeing everyone's true talent level*. (except Price) So the real variances are injuries and the manager.

*Insofar, when players are doing well, I don't feel like they're lucky...rather i feel like they just have the potential to play that well for a decent amount of time. I'm not seeing anything i find shocking from the pitchers. I WOULD be shocked by Porcello's K rate but his stuff looks like the kind that would get those K's. (Also the kind that gives up HRs) Hembree's stuff seems commiserate with the results. Koji is old (Not saying he's done) Kimbrel is wilder than I'd like.

All the batters (even Shaw and Holt) arn't shocking me. I don't have a woobie (which is a good thing).

I guess that's all pretty rambling.

53. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 23, 2016 at 11:39 AM (#5203355)

Yes I do. Which isn't to say I don't like O'Brien, he's fantastic. I loved Orsillo though.

Totally agree. The giggle fests with Remy were getting annoying, O'Brien has done a lot less of that so far so that's nice, but I didn't see the reason to get rid of Orsillo.

54. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 23, 2016 at 11:44 AM (#5203360)

Can I overreact to Heath Hembree for a minute? Two appearances and he has looked terrific. He's throwing a lot more strikes and seems to have a little wrinkle that has the ball moving at the bottom of the zone which seems effective. I still think he needs a dependable second pitch, not a great one just something to throw hitters off a bit, but I've been encouraged.

55. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 23, 2016 at 12:03 PM (#5203373)

IIRC Wright is 31 years old, he should still be able to get to 100 career wins in the decade-plus he has left as a knuckler.

More immediately, Wright pulling a Wakefield 1995 or Dickey 2010 type breakout is exactly the type of good fortune the Red Sox need in order to have a credible starting rotation. Price will be fine (FIP of 3.12 right now even with the high HR rate) but after that it's all question marks.

I expect Buchholz to either be effective and then get hurt or stink and be healthy, Porcello to just stink, and Joe Kelly to end up in the minors or the bullpen... so even if Wright turns out to be the next knuckler king the Sox still need at least one additional average or better starter.

56. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 23, 2016 at 12:05 PM (#5203374)

Totally agree. The giggle fests with Remy were getting annoying, O'Brien has done a lot less of that so far so that's nice, but I didn't see the reason to get rid of Orsillo.

I think O'Brien is a very good announcer, but Orsillo was also very good and moving O'Brien to TV means that he can't do radio anymore. I haven't heard Neverett yet, does anyone have any early reviews of his work?

57. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 23, 2016 at 01:13 PM (#5203407)

Neverett is fine. He's a bit stiff but that just maybe nerves working themselves out and building a rapport with Joe. Technically I think O'Brien on TV and Neverett on radio isn't any kind of drop down of significance. Both guys are fine, O'Brien probably deserves better than fine, he is very good. But I loved Orsillo. I invite this guy into my house 140 times a year and he was comfortable for me. I may get there with O'Brien but I Find it unlikely I will ever like him more than Orsillo.

And please, don't do the three man booth any more. Especially the version that has Lyons as the third man,

58. Darren

Posted: April 24, 2016 at 11:05 AM (#5203899)

Hanley is maddening: .265 .288 .382. Looks like he's going to just rake then goes into these long funks.

In the minors, Benintendi and Moncada both have great numbers but neither has a HR yet. That's something.

59. covelli chris p Posted: April 24, 2016 at 11:31 PM (#5204379)

orsillo was fine. remy was the guy they should have given the boot too. orsillo paired with a competent color guy is a good both. obrien is very good though.

60. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 25, 2016 at 01:25 AM (#5204446)

that wasn't quite how they drew it up but a win that gets strong performances from Barnes, Hembree, Hanigan and Bradley (at the plate) is encouraging. It was also good to see Koji back to normal.

The ninth inning never happened so we don't have to discuss that.

61. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 26, 2016 at 09:37 PM (#5206014)

I know it's the Braves and I know he didn't have his best stuff early but this game had a "turn the corner" feel for Price.

62. Dale Sams Posted: April 26, 2016 at 09:57 PM (#5206032)

This should be a safe place to get away from Braves fans defending the moves of their org.

I hate hate hate it.

63. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 30, 2016 at 12:18 AM (#5208821)

My goodness that was a fun game tonight. I was so so so wrong about Ramirez at first base.

64. Chip Posted: April 30, 2016 at 12:44 AM (#5208827)

The resistible force of Henry Owen's inability to get lefties out versus the movable object of the Yankees inability to hit lefties was certainly weird to watch. Henry really danced between the raindrops.

Betances' being unable to find his curveball was also very helpful.

65. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 30, 2016 at 12:48 AM (#5208828)

It seemed like either the curve or the change was really giving him problems tonight. I was at the game and couldn't tell. If it was the curve that would explain the struggles with lefties.

66. Chip Posted: April 30, 2016 at 01:18 AM (#5208835)

With Owens, it's always the fastball that's the problem. His change remains his best pitch and was again tonight. He actually used the curve more effectively than he did in Houston (actually I'm not sure he used it much at all there).

67. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 30, 2016 at 11:18 AM (#5208879)

Honestly, Betances didn't make a terrible pitch. It was belt high, but well off the plate. Papi didn't try to pull it, and instead went out and got it.

He's just a-#######-mazing.

68. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 30, 2016 at 11:31 AM (#5208882)

Off the bat I didn't think it was going to get out. I was confident it had wall but didn't think it had the carry. Did the wind help it?

Gardner gave a really good deke by the way. Not sure they talked about it but his deke was pretty good and Bogaerts did a great job to ignore it. It's been talked about a bit but I think one of the biggest things on this year's team is the base running is genuinely outstanding.

69. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: May 02, 2016 at 08:08 AM (#5209786)

The Sox have Dellin Betances number.

Also, man, the rivalry isn't what it was a decade ago but sweeping the Yankees still feels great.

70. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 02, 2016 at 09:46 AM (#5209815)

Off the bat I didn't think it was going to get out.

Not something you could say about Vazquez's homer.

71. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 02, 2016 at 09:49 AM (#5209823)

No definitely not. Holy #### that was vaporized.

72. Nasty Nate Posted: May 02, 2016 at 09:50 AM (#5209826)

Not something you could say about Vazquez's homer.

I wanted to see the replay from the angle which shows Landsdowne St and the parking garage. But ESPN might not have that camera like NESN does.

73. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 02, 2016 at 09:52 AM (#5209830)

I wonder if the weather kept them off the roof.

74. Nasty Nate Posted: May 02, 2016 at 10:02 AM (#5209840)

I went to Saturday's game and one minor amusing thing was the night of Didi Gregorius. The ball kept being hit in his direction, but juuuuust out of reach, or just off his glove, or just slow enough that his throw couldn't beat the runner. All were scored hits (maybe one could have been an error), but some were possibly playable and I'm sure it was a frustrating game for him.

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