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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Sunday, May 01, 2022Well At Least April Is OverTo be fair I also considered “that sucked” as a title for this piece and frankly that would have been just as accurate. Sometimes there are things you can say and sometimes there aren’t. This is one of the latter times right now. We can talk about the failure to get a right-handed bat in the outfield or a platoon partner for Bobby Dalbec but the reality is that the problems on this team are the guys that we shouldn’t have to worry about. Xander Bogaerts (.918 vs .862) and JD Martinez (.906 vs. .824) are the only players outperforming their ZiPS projections. Making it worse is that the guys who are coming up short aren’t coming up short by a little, they are by and large missing their targets like Daniel Bard circa 2013; Rafael Devers -.115 I am no expert but when your entire lineup is running between 115 and 315 points of OPS below expectations you aren’t going to be very good. Why is this? I have no idea. The Major Leagues as a whole did have some decline year to year but only from .699 to .675 so that’s not all the problem. I don’t know what it is but I remain sure of two things; 1. This lineup WILL hit better, likely sooner than later. Having said all that there are some reasons for hope. The pitching staff has looked very good. Joe Bivens has raised some concerns about the amount of usage for the bullpen but while they are on the higher side of bullpen usage (12th in AL) the raw numbers aren’t dramatically out of line with the rest of the division. They have actually used the bullpen less than MLB leaders Tampa Bay and just 4 innings more than Toronto and 5 innings more than New York. And with all of that the reality is that if they make basically two plays better; Story against Tampa and Diekman doesn’t groove one to Springer in Toronto and they come home with a satisfactory 5-5 road trips. But of course if ifs and buts were candy and nuts it would be October 27, 2004 every day. Alas, the Sox are not very good right now. The talent is here to be better. If they continue to get good pitching performances that should right the ship but man, this offense needs to get its act together tout suite. Anything else is just noise. Some random stuff; - Two extra inning games this week with the zombie runner and twice they couldn’t score in the top half of the inning. That also happened on Opening Day in the Bronx. The results aren’t there and neither is the approach and the situational hitting needed. - If the club wants to try and get an internal jumpstart going I think Jarren Duran rather than Triston Casas is the play. - Hopefully some home cooking can help. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful
Posted: May 01, 2022 at 09:46 PM | 76 comment(s)
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1. villageidiom Posted: May 02, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6074758)I'm right there with you. I think we give JBJ a lot of rope because we accept that stretches of offensive incapability have always been part of the package. But, like, he's gone 7 months in which his best OBP was .301 and most of the other months weren't anywhere close to that. We took on the contract to buy the prospects, and took a shot at a bounce-back year. And maybe he will still bounce back. But I don't think we'll see it while he's still in a Red Sox uniform.
The normal version of me thinks a decision on JBJ will come in the next 2 weeks. The incredibly jaded version of me thinks we still have two more months of this, with Duran not being called up until late June at which point his accumulated service time plus the remainder of the 2021 season will not add up to a full year.
Wasn't last year's ML OPS 728? That's what bb-ref shows. 728 to 678 is a pretty big drop.
edit...Jordan's furniture is running another promotion: buy furniture now, it's free if the Red Sox win the WS. You in?
I was giving Jose a hard time on another thread as Renfroe has 5 homers so far this season(of course 4 of them are in like the last 4 days). The bottom of the order is a sucking vortex of batting h*ll.
The SP has been pretty good(not Dodgers good, but still a 3.51 ERA(same as the Giants) for the starters is solid) and I would've liked(yes, I do understand short spring, etc) to have seen a few of them stretched an out or 3 longer on some of their outings. However the hitting has been so poor I'm not really sure if any difference would've been made.
And Joe the game has changed. The bullpen usage isn’t that big a deal because every team uses 25 relievers. I hate it but it is what it is.
The Jordan’s thing has been every year in some form or another since 2004 right?
The JBJ trade was like the Ottavino trade a year earlier, noting that:
1) There was more reason to believe Ottavino would be useful in 2021 than there was/is that JBJ will be useful in 2022, but in exchange for that,
2) the prospects Bloom was able to "buy" were markedly better.
Keep in mind that what we are paying JBJ is not the real number: It JBJ minus Renfroe, who makes over $7.5 million this year, and has been pretty bad, too.
The problem is that many of us thought that this deal was primarily a prospect purchasing transaction...not the acquisition of a right fielder. I always thought JBJ would be a 4th outfielder, defensive replacement, etc.
I wondered all off-season what the plan was for acquiring a right fielder...not realizing this was the plan!
By this summer, Duran and Casas will be getting full opoortunities, and if there are some injuries to the starters, then a few more of the young guys will get a shot there, too (maybe Wincknowski, Seabold, Whitlock
Really?
Yankees 30
Rays 41
Red Sox 37
Blue Jays 38
White Sox 27
Astros 32
Mariners 38
Athletics 27
So the A's and White Sox managed to use "only" 27 pitchers (so call it 22 relievers). Honestly I pulled the number out of my ass but it's actually surprisingly accurate.
The A's used a spot starter for 18 games. So, 21.
For the Red Sox, they listed 6 SPs, and then 12 "spot" starts. (Sale got 9 of those). So, call that # "30". Yeeeeeeechhhh. We're doomed.
Ottavino was pretty much a straight cash buy from the Yankees - the 'player to be named later' has still not been named.
Trading for Binelas & Hamilton has cost the Sox $3.35 million in salary diff between JBJ and Renfroe, and to date there's a -.7 WAR difference between the two. Contrary to popular belief Renfroe is hitting well, he's got a 120 OPS+
Isn't that roughly what you would expect? An equal distribution of pitchers would give each team 3.33 in the top 100, I don't see why you'd think there'd be much separation at this point in the season.
To do a deeper dive, they have one at #16 or 18, then one tied for #74 and one tied for #79. An equal distro would have one in the 2nd third. The way they've been going, they'll be in the bottom half of SP innings, and I think that will tax the bullpen beyond their abilities. And given that the team has too many easy outs (add Story to the list, he looks awful...I don't see any pop in his bat at all), that bodes poorly. Most of the year, they'll be under water in terms of runs scored/runs allowed. This is a lost year, unless the roster changes dramatically.
And now they are at #20, #36, & #85, one in each third...clearly doom is upon them!
I think you're whistling past the graveyard. I won't mind if I'm wrong.
I agree with you on the whole regarding the team's outlook, but your deep dive into the starting pitchers innings thrown is just off. You're not paying attention/not believing/being obstinate (take your pick) and ignoring that starting pitcher usage has changed, and the Sox are right in the middle of the pack.
If their plan is to replace Bogaerts with Story, this team is in for several years of mediocrity.
wow that's a weird statement.
That Matt Barnes extension looks worse and worse with each passing day. It's not an albatross, but when he's released before the end of the 2023 season there'll be some dead money there.
We need an over/under on extra inning losses for the season. From what I gathered online, it appears the record is 18 by the 1943 St. Louis Browns. Tonight is the 5th extra inning loss in 25 games. We're on pace for ~32. Something to shoot for!
No, YOU are!
Seriously, though, it would have been weird if I didn't type the next couple of lines.
Oh look! Another bullpen fail last night!
I'm getting 2014 vibes. Some reasons for optimism in the upper minors but a team that overachieved a year ago underachieving right now. I stand by my expectation for the team but they are digging a hole right now. 3-6 in one run games, 0-5 in extra innings, that has to give at some point. I just hope they don't overreact and move Whitlock to the bullpen. He's looking like the real deal. Now Houck, hey I could go with him being the closer.
Dalbec: .141/.215/.225 1 HR, 5/24 BB/K ratio
Casas: .261/.383/.500 5 HRs, 17/23 BB/K ratio
I get that a lot of Casas's positive stats come from home games in Worcester. I also don't want to rush Casas - simply being better than Dalbec is not necessarily a good enough reason to bring Casas up yet. But the team's decision not to find a short-term platoon partner for Dalbec, or find a legit right fielder, is kind of going worst-case scenario right now.
Which is too bad, because despite the poor start to the season, the starting pitching has generally been good: Eovaldi, Houck, Wacha, Whitlock, and Hill have all done their jobs well. Pivetta has been terrible.
I also would like the team to see what they have in Seabold pretty soon. He is pitching really, really well in AAA right now, and one could see a scenario where they make him a #5 starter, move Pivetta to the bullpen and see if he can give them good short outings, etc.
Diekman I don't get. His stuff looks SO good sometimes and other times so pedestrian.
Today is a new day!
Robles gives me an Alfredo Aceves feel, which doesn't fill me with confidence. His stuff is better than Aceves' but he doesn't seem to get more out of it. I don't find myself yelling at the TV "GET OUT OF YOUR OWN HEAD AND PITCH, DAMMIT" to Robles, but I don't recall yelling "FOCUS ON LOCATING PITCHES RATHER THAN FINDING A NEW WAY TO GET AWAY WITH BALKING" at Aceves. It feels about the same, though - like at any given moment either of them will decide their mission is something other than getting outs.
Yeah, it could be both, though. Weaknesses are revealed when RPs make too many appearances. I believe they wouldn't be as bad as they have been if they weren't constantly called on in close games. So many high leverage situations, they cracked.
Did he come down with Steve Blass Disease? Mind boggling how someone can go from lights-out to dogmeat literally overnight (Aug 8 & 10 of last year).
I'm always looking for comps and this season is building a 1996 feel in my mind. That team finished 85-77 after winning the division but dug too deep a hole early in the year (6-19 out of the chute). I can see this team doing that. Like this team that team was more than talented enough to contend but had some holes (hey let's put Wilfredo Cordero at second base!) Clay Davenport has the Sox as .500 in third order winning percentage which would be 13-12. In other words, 13-12 with a semi-competent bullpen. I stand by what I said the other day, this team should be expecting to contend and I expect them to come around, the key right now is not digging too deep a hole.
Today's game is still well within reach . . . RISP has been a sore spot for Boston and they're not gonna OPS .601 in those situations the whole season. Hell that .634 OPS isn't going to last, either. C'mon regression, we're rooting for you!
But yeah, we can talk about all kinds of things but the entire team effectively is underperforming. That will turn at some point. The trick is going to be hanging on long enough to make it matter.
I’d really almost be tempted to go with openers to get some relievers straightened out and not pitching in high leverage situations, and then maybe bring in a Hill or a Whitlock in the 3rd or 4th to try to get you 5 innings... but I realize that’s probably way too crazy an idea to ever happen.
And also of course at some point it would be nice for the 2/3 of the lineup not hitting to hit and actually score.
my timing is no better than that of boston's lineup.
When they go off the rails, they REALLY go off the rails. Yikes.
That's what I keep thinking. thus far, the offense hasn't been able to put together the big innings where the offense just keeps rolling. It will be fun when that finally happens! I think the Angels fans probably enjoyed those monster innings the last couple of days.
I'd say Wacha is at about 200% of what I hoped he'd be able to do. He's been better than I expected by a lot.
Keeping every game close until the inevitable collapse at the end!
1) They are in a very, very tough division, and have gotten themselves into a pretty big hole very quickly.
2) It is difficult to imagine a team that can win the World Series with five-ninths of their starting lineup being Verdugo/Hernandez/JBJ/Dalbec/Vazquez, at least the way they are playing right now. And I am largely in the camp of those fans who think that there are three kinds of teams: The ones who are trying to win the WS this year; the ones who are in the process of playing the young guys who they hope can be part of the next WS-competitive team; and teams that are neither competing for the WS, nor largely playing the guys who are going to be around when the next WS-competitive team is lined up.
Right now, the Red Sox are heading towards category #3. Hernandez, Vazquez, JBJ, Dalbec - these guys have nothing to do with a 2023-and-beyond team competing for a WS. Hill and Wacha? One year guys to bridge for longer-term solutions, as well. And Xander looks headed out the door after this season.
3) So at a certain point, especially given Bloom's track record of doing very well on both the "buy" and "sell" side of in-season trades, you could see a lot of "sell" ammo this summer:
- Xander, if he would waive a no-trade clause to be on a contender
- JD Martinez is in the final year of his deal, and if he continues hitting, would be a valuable deadline pickup
- Hernandez and Vazquez
- Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, and many of the short-inning relievers
- Xander, J.D., and the starting pitchers are obviously the ones who could fetch the best return
4) By later this summer, then, one could see Bloom replacing some of these players with prospects who might actually be upgrades on the field by then, anyway:
- Casas for Dalbec
- Story to SS, and put Downs or Hamilton at 2B, see what you've got.
- Duran in the OF
- Seabold, Winckowski, Bello, Walter, Darwinzon Hernandez, Frank German, etc.
Of course, you have to give the current team more of a chance to improve. Also, if some of the above minor-leaguers are struggling in 2022 in the minors, then they are not ready for the bigs. Also, if the veterans you'd trade are injured or struggling, they won't fetch much a return. All I'm saying is that, as the hole gets deeper and calendar moves forward, we should be open to this possibility. We have a number of players at the end of deals with real value, and an executive in Bloom who appears very good at this sort of thing.
6 extra inning losses. That record of 18 certainly seems doable.
Thing is, there’s like nothing to be done here. Bring up Duran I guess. And others. But like you can’t massively overhaul the team. There’s no new tactics to try other than “don’t suck” or “stop chasing bad pitches” and “hit damnit.”
It certainly feels like it’s either gonna turn around or go so far south in such a hurry as to make September 2011 look like a picnic. And I’m not at all sure Cora survives an actual last-place implosion.
For the most part, they are getting good to decent starts from the SP.
Intuitively it makes more sense for Whitlock to start and he's pretty much shut been lock down for the 22 innings he's pitched.
The more guys he gets out, the better it is for the team.
However, if you decide to just punt his starts, have him close(up to 6 outs) most of the decent starts, do you win more games?
They are getting a decent start nearly every game and blowing 3/5 of them(even the Whitlock starts).
If you just plan on getting 4 decent starts out of 5, but have Whitlock close(long relief) in 3 of those are you more likely to win all those games therefore winning 3/5 of your games?
Sure, I know it's not linear like that, but it's still a fun question to ask. Where is Whitlock more valuable in light of the fact this team cannot hold any lead right now.
Always look on the bright side of life.
They just sent him down.
I get what you're saying. Let's throw the dice. The implication is that they're desperate, and I agree. The farm is weak to mediocre, at best. There are no Wander Francos or Juan Sotos or even Oneill Cruz's on the horizon. It seems like this team will have to spend its way out of the miserable state they're in, but they won't.
(I say "maybe" for 2B because last year 2B went through a lot of players, so we perceive that it was an offensive sinkhole, but Arroyo was solid, and for the month that Iglesias played 2B, he was pretty awesome. That made 2B - as a position - not so bad offensively for the team in 2021, and it means that Story will actually have to be pretty good for the offense to be measurably better at the position than it was in 2021.)
In terms of the pitching, I'm increasingly frustrated the Red Sox don't see they have an in-house solution to address their late-inning woes. The team lacks a traditional closer - Barnes and Robles are not the answer. But some are worried about taking Whitlock out of the rotation, where he has been so good, and where he theoretically gives them more elite innings than he would as a a reliever.
But Bloom has done an excellent job of quickly developing legit starting pitching depth in the organization, with a number of guys who could be perfectly fine 4/5 starters, give you 5 innings, 2 runs, etc., and allow the team to put Whitlock in the 2-3X a week, 2-3 innings an appearance role.
Connor Seabold is 26, an ERA of 1.63 in Worcester, 23/6 K/BB in 28 IP.
Josh Winckowski is 23, an ERA of 3.06 in Worcester, 17/4 K/BB, in 18 IP.
I would much rather try Seabold as a starter in Boston, and move Whitlock to the bullpen, than what we are doing right now.
The team is 9.5 games back already in a very tough division, with two of their three best bats free agents at the end of the year, neither likely to re-sign with the team. Their ace starter just suffered a setback that will keep him out potentially deep into the summer. Their best starter (Eovaldi) is a free agent after the season, too. Two of their three OFers (Hernandez and JBJ) are FAs at the end of the year, and aren't producing, anyway. Why wouldn't you try a few of the young pitchers in the rotation in an effort to overhaul the bullpen:
Eovaldi
Wacha
Hill
Pivetta
Seabold
Bullpen multi-inning guys:
Whitlock
Houck
Winckowski
Then use the remaining bullpen guys as short-inning arms (and it would be relatively limited usage, given the multi-inning strategy I'm suggesting). I think this plays to the organization's greatest strengths, to deal with its current weaknesses. And we've got nothing to lose, really.
The other kid, sure. Maybe. Give him a few outings and let's see.
The idea that a team with two top 20 prospects doesn’t have any studs on the horizon makes little sense to me nor does the idea that a team that has the sixth highest payroll in the game (and hasn’t been below that mark since the 20th century) and just spent to sign one of the top available free agents two months ago won’t spend money.
Look, the Sox are 10-18, that’s terrible. They are pretty much team wide underperforming in every way AND are underperforming that under performance (by three games on third order wins). The hole they have dug is significant and likely to be fatal but there is every reason to expect things to get better before long.
I see no reason to think that this team will spend themselves much more over the cap. (Per this, they're 11M over right now.)
Who says the team is underperforming? I see projections every year but once they're made, they seem to be forgotten. I haven't been able to find any "report cards" that evaluate how accurate pre season projections, relative to players' individual performances, pan out. Can you point me to any such report cards? Otherwise, I take projections with a grain of salt. This team looked weak from the jump, and they've performed as expected.
According to who? On the one hand we have you saying they suck, on the other hand virtually everyone else saying they don't. Forget about projections, just compare the numbers of every player to what they've done historically. This isn't complicated.
Kike Hernandez, JBJ, Bobby Dalbec, and sadly, Christian Vazquez, who you used to be able to hide in there because the other 7 or 8 guys were all dangerous. (Hernandez had one or two good years where he could get away with being there, but that's in the past.)
JBJ is 86, a bit low but with his defense fine.
Vazquez has been good but he's not hitting this year.
Dalbec, yeah he sucks.
Joe my issue with your comments is that you act like the Sox are somehow unique. They aren't. Just to give an example (career OPS+ since you don't like projections);
82 vs. 62 (Vazquez vs. Higashioka)
86 vs. 82 (JBJ vs. Kiner-Falefa)
98 vs. 99 (Kike vs. Hicks)
I mean really. Why would you expect dramatic differences (and by the way Higashioka is actually hitting worse than Dalbec which I didn't think was possible.
The problem is simply that they are not playing well. Trevor Story by any measure should be much better than he's been. Same with Verdugo and frankly everyone other than JD, Raffy and X. The problem is that 5 of the nine guys are underperforming their track records by a LOT (technically six but Dalbec I think is what he is. I think this was somewhat predictable). You can argue that JBJ was also predictable and I won't argue much with you. The failure to have a useful option as a RHB OF and a 1B caddy in the event that first half Dalbec was the real thing, not second half Dalbec are both mistakes that Bloom owns. But this team IS better than they are playing. Will they play better? Beats the #### out of me. Will it be enough? Probably not. What's the old adage, you can't win anything in April but you can lose it. The Sox are doing their best on that front.
JBJ is fine on a team with 6 or 7 guys raking from day 1. Same as Kiké.
Vazquez...see "Hernandez".
Dalbec, I feel sorry for. He is lost.
They aren't playing well because they are not a good team. They have good players. But as a team, they suck.
Are you watching today's game? JD swung at the first pitch and GiDP, killing that inning.
I'm really not interested in analyzing and dissecting their weaknesses. They're evident, to me. If virtually everyone else doesn't see what I see, good luck to them and the Red Sox, as the saying goes.
The team will be battling the Orioles for the cellar.
Jose noted this, and I did a quick look at 2022 vs 2021 to see what might stand out (besides relatively small sample size in 2022). Entering Sunday:
- The walk rate of the players from 2021 who are not a part of the 2022 team was 8.5%. It was a relative group of free swingers, propped up by the amazing Kyle Schwarber, who walked 33 times in 168 PAs. The rest of the PAs (a lot of it Renfroe) combined for a walk rate of only 6.8%. So, a part of explains the decline is simply the departure of Schwarber.
- The walk rate of the guys on the 2022 team who were not a part of the 2021 team is almost identical to the total rate of those who are gone: 8.4%. Basically, it is JBJ and Story. Neither of them are hitting, but they both are walking at a decent clip.
The main difference between 2021 and 2022 among the returning players is Martinez, probably, whose walk rate is thus far a fair amount lower than last year (5.7% vs 8.7%). Verdugo is down a fair amount, too.
It is too bad JD Martinez's contract did not end last year, because I suspect the team would have re-signed Schwarber to be the DH, maybe play a little LF and 1B, and it likely would have been a little cheaper than what he ended up getting from Philly (4 years, $79m). He is struggling with the BA thus far, but the walks and home runs are definitely there, and the average will come up. I also think the team has liked Dalbec to an almost-irrational extent, and I'm sorry...he is not an everyday major league regular. But it is my take that the combination of having a defense-less Martinez, plus wanting to stick with Dalbec in 2022, made it tough to find a place here for Schwarber. Instead, they could have played him at 1B for most of 2022, until Casas is ready, and then replace Martinez with Schwarber at DH after the 2022 season.
As Steve points out, there are a lot of moveable pieces here come the trade deadline. I'm not sure what the point of no return is where you might start shopping guys, but I'd argue a record like 15-30 or so would make me pull the plug on the season and start selling off anyone who's not going to be around in 2024. In fact, the sooner they raise the white flag, the better the return could be on what they'll be selling, and that might possibly benefit the 2023 team (not just the 2024 team). And yeah, I realize I'm advocating white flagging it on May 8th, but this article (from May 1) lays out how grim the situation is. Yes, the playoffs are expanded for this year but... It's still pretty grim.
Again what kind of sucks here is that the SP plan--29 games in--DOES seem like it is going about as well as could have been hoped for. It's all wasted, of course, but I suppose lost in their general suckitude is that Bloom's SP selection/plan is about as close to ideal as could have been expected. But, as has been pointed out by many, the bats of 5/9 of the lineup have just cratered and in the AL East that's never going to get you close to contention.
3-5 runs scored in 12 games
6+ runs scored in 3 games
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