As a Red Sox fan...what an odd season. 2023 feels like (as you said) at the top end of my optimistic projection, especially given that Sale has been (predictably) of limited availability again this season. The team has spent much of the year hovering around just outside of the wild card positions, enough that they are relevant...but not taken seriously as a contender.

They were 14-14, then ripped off a seven-game winning streak. At 21-14, I remember there was a buzz in early May that the team might actually be pretty good. From that point on, the team has stayed within a pretty narrow band: They were five games over at the All Star break. They once got to nine games over .500. They twice fell to two games under .500. They are currently 66-59, and as the post notes, are going to have to play really well to improve upon that from here on in.

I've also noticed that the Patriots have basically taken over the New England sports landscape now for the season, and within a week or so, will dominate all sports talk, local media coverage, etc.

But let's say the team ends up 85-77, and out of the playoffs. How should we fans feel about it?

On one hand, I think the primary reason the team may win 85 games instead of 79 is because a handful of the short-term veteran "bridge" acquisitions Bloom signed have played on the high end of expectations. Justin Turner is probably the second-best hitter on the team this year. Duvall got hurt, but he has provided enough defense and home runs to be an asset. Paxton appears to be tailing off a bit, but for a while there, he was one of the better starting pitchers in the league, on really short money. Jansen has been fine - and has certainly done his part to stabilize the bullpen - but Chris Martin has been remarkable. Reyes, Urias, and Bernardino have all been helpful as cheap pickups. And the Yoshida signing has gone about as well as anybody could have hoped.

If that was the only reason for the 5-7 game bump from my expectations, I'd be unenthused, because these signings have nothing to do with building a consistent contender.

But the fact the team has stuck with a bunch of young guys who can be a part of the next big thing, all while exceeding expectations? That's been fun. Casas has been very good since early May - our first base problem is solved. Bello is pretty clearly a premium starting pitcher, the hardest thing to develop in the sport. Devers is signed for a decade, is hitting like a beast, and is only 26 years old. Duran has proven to be a useful player on a good team - something I wouldn't have said six months ago. Kutter Crawford is proving to be a valuable young arm, probably as a back-end starter. That is very valuable, and helps in building the team for next year.

And the farm system appears nearly fully recovered from the Dombrowski years. (I'm not complaining - he largely traded away prospects who failed to be impact players, and built arguably the greatest start-to-finish Red Sox team since at least the 1970s.) It is not difficult to put together an impressive "lineup" of premium prospects or young MLB players from the organization:
C - Teel
1B - Casas
2B - Yorke
3B - Devers
SS - Mayer
OF - Anthony, Bleis, Rafaela
SP - Bello, Crawford, Perales, Gonzalez, Drohan
RP - Whitlock, Houck, Guerrero

And there is depth behind that list: Guys like Wilyer Abreu, Enmanuel Valdez, Chase Meidroth, and Brainer Bonaci aren't likely to be impact players at the MLB level, but if you look at the last four years, we haven't had depth to avoid black holes in the lineup when injuries occur. I look at 2024, and see a team that has largely fixed it systemic problems, and can now pursue a few impact players in FA or trades, because we'll be close enough now to justify it. That has not been true in the 2020-2023 period.

I think they are going to drop off a bit down the stretch, and end up at about .500, which still exceeds by a bit my expectations for 2023. But I'll still be satisfied with the season, as a fan, because of the journey, more than the destination.

And there is depth behind that list: Guys like Wilyer Abreu, Enmanuel Valdez, Chase Meidroth, and Brainer Bonaci aren't likely to be impact players at the MLB level, but if you look at the last four years, we haven't had depth to avoid black holes in the lineup when injuries occur.

We've had a different kind of depth. It was the Brock Holt model of depth: get a couple of guys who can play anywhere, and then plug them in where needed. Those guys were Hernandez and Arroyo, and neither is with the team any more because they have been replaced with better depth.

Some of that better depth is development (Duran in particular); some is acquisition (Duvall, Reyes, Urias); and some is from injured players getting healthy again so the depth options can remain as depth.

Narrator: They did not get a bigger boat.

But let's say the team ends up 85-77, and out of the playoffs. How should we fans feel about it?

Missing the playoffs in the current playoff format should always feel a little disappointing for a team with their resources, as far as I'm concerned. But I'm more optimistic about the sort of middle term now than I was a year ago, probably? But yeah, this part is important:

I look at 2024, and see a team that has largely fixed it systemic problems, and can now pursue a few impact players in FA or trades, because we'll be close enough now to justify it.

I expect them to go into next year with a realistic chance at winning the division because they've added premium talent in the offseason. If that's not the case, I will be pretty disappointed.

there's a lot of youth on this team that is playing consistently well and they are FUN to watch.

That is the kind of base on which a team should build, and I would expect them to build this off-season. I'm happy with how this season has played out, and am hopeful that it inspires mgmt to do what needs to be done this off-season to help the team take another step forward to becoming a 90+ win/division title contender.

And in the meantime I will enjoy watching them play out the string; Houston series was tough but this team has always bounced back well and I'm curious if they can do the same in the next six weeks.

Narrator: I spoke too soon.

7 against Houston - Boston wins 3 (extra game is in Houston)

Boston split the 4 games in Houston, which is a good start. To beat the expectation against Houston they need to take 2 of 3 at home. It would also have the added advantage of hurting a team ahead of them.

Yoshida and Casas panning out really helps the team, but they definitely still need a 2B (and a better 4th OF) for 2024. Their starting pitching is what scares me - Sale, Bello, Houk, Crawford, Whitlock, Pivetta are all either fragile, young, young and fragile, or should really only be used part time to maintain their effectiveness. They could really use two more *good* starting pitchers that are locked in for a few years. I will be bummed if they go with the reclamation pu-pu-platter (Paxton, Kluber, Hill, Wacha) that Bloom seems to be a fan of.

I assume the middle infield in 2024 will be Story and Rafaela.

I assume the middle infield in 2024 will be Story and Rafaela.

If so, you'd think Rafaela would be getting more time there in Worcester this year. He's started some at SS, but significantly more in CF.

You're right that Rafaela has played 2B this year as many innings as Story played at 2B in his career through 2021.

I'll put it a different way. We pretty much know the following positions for 2024:

C Wong
1B Casas
SS Story
3B Devers
LF Yoshida

I'd bet at least one of Verdugo/Duran won't be there in 2024. Whether Rafaela is used to fill the additional OF spot, or 2B, I don't know but it depends on whether they acquire an OF or 2B, and I think the former is more likely than the latter if they are looking for an offensive upgrade. I still think Rafaela is a starter in Boston next year, and I think he's versatile enough and defensively gifted enough that they can put him almost anywhere they need.

What about Story at 2B, and Rafaela at SS?

The Red Sox couldn't get Story experience at 2B through 2021 because ... he was on the Rockies. They basically face no limitations on where to play Rafaela this year.

What about Story at 2B, and Rafaela at SS?

There's a reason I phrased it the way I did in #8.

The Red Sox couldn't get Story experience at 2B through 2021 because ... he was on the Rockies.

Yeah, but my point was that the lack of experience at 2B did not stop them from assigning Story to the position.

I'd bet at least one of Verdugo/Duran won't be there in 2024.

Why would they trade Duran? Sell high scenerio? I could see trading Verdugo, assuming they have a starting OF FA target, the organization definitely seems soured on him, and it's his last year of control.

Why would they trade Duran? Sell high scenerio?

Yeah, basically. More to my point, I expect Bloom to acquire via trade moreso than sign free agents, and while he might rather trade Verdugo I think he'd get more value back by trading Duran, and might be willing to part with him.

Mind you, I'm not saying he should trade either of them. I'm just saying I expect at least one of them to be gone.

At the time this post was written, I was thinking it was an optimistic but reasonable hope that they'd go 21-17 the rest of the way. That would be 87 wins, which seems like a decent chance for a Wild Card. My (optimistic thinking):

--With 38 games left you'd have about 23 from Paxton/Sale/Bello. Go 14-9 in those and 7-8 in the rest of the games and you've got 21 wins.
--They needed to sweep one 3 game series and then go 18-17 in the rest of the games.

What's happened since hasn't changed my mind. At 69-62, they now need to go 18-13. Eh.

I like a lot of what SBPT says in the first comment here, but I'll disagree on these points:

--I can't picture this team playing poorly enough to end up at .500.

--Am I the only one who's concerned that Bello's been pretty mediocre for a while? His K rates are pretty pedestrian for a guy with his stuff. I'm confident he's at least a #2-3 starter, but not sure he's a premium starting pitcher.

I would like to see more K's from Bello as well, but I'm happy with him limiting the walks at least. And it's not unusual for guys to see their K rates explode. Lester saw his K/9 rise from just 6.5 in 2008 to 10.0 in 2009. Johan Santana had a 6.4 K/9 in his first 129.2 innings. Curt Schilling had a 6.6 K/9 in his first 689 innings and he had a 9.1 K/9 for the remainder of his career.

I assume the middle infield in 2024 will be Story and Rafaela.

Mind you, I'm not saying he should trade either of them. I'm just saying I expect at least one of them to be gone.

Who do you think Chaim would target in a Verdugo or Duran trade? An OF? Because if they don't bring an OF back in the trade to fill CF or RF the Sox will go into the season with Refsnyder as a starting OF...

The Sox OF next year is Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo, presumably with Rafaela as #4 and Refsnyder as #5. Duvall is a FA. Maybe he's resigned, but at the moment he's not on the 2024 Sox roster. If Rafaela gets moved to the infield that OF "depth" vanishes.

If Rafaela gets moved to the infield that OF "depth" vanishes.

Two-thirds of their starting outfield going into this year were not on the roster last year. I'm not too worried about them being unable to solve that problem. To answer your first question, because of Rafaela Boston is not limited in pursuing an OF if they trade Duran or Verdugo; they could also aim for a middle infielder.

Just as an example in case you're having trouble envisioning how something like this could happen, after the 1992 season the Yankees traded All-Star CF Roberto Kelly to the Reds for an older RF whose batting profile fit Yankee Stadium better: Paul O'Neill. For the Reds this made sense as Reggie Sanders had made his debut, finishing 4th in NL RotY voting (behind Erik Karros, Moises Alou, and Tim Wakefield) and demonstrating he was ready to be a starting outfielder, but swapping Kelly for O'Neill allowed them to slide Sanders to RF. Kelly, FWIW, is on the list of Verdugo's top comps at age 26, the age when Kelly was traded.

Rafaela apparently up while Abreu is on paternity leave, though not in the lineup tonight.

Well that was certainly something.

I present to you the 2023 Red Sox evergreen comment:

Well that was certainly something.

OK, here we are 9 days later and Boston isn't gaining ground on the projections. They took 1 of 3 from the Dodgers as I'd projected. They would need to win today in order to meet my projection of taking 3 of 7 from the Astros, which is a long way of saying they are not exceeding the projections. Duran is out for the year. The bullpen is in all the stages of disrepair. The only things working in their favor right now are that Toronto isn't running away just yet and Texas is falling.

On a brighter note I am looking forward to seeing what Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela can do while he's up.

The only things working in their favor right now are that Toronto isn't running away just yet and Texas is falling

Texas - won the last 2
Boston - lost the last 4

and they are both 3-7 in the last 10

I fail to see your logic.

--I can't picture this team playing poorly enough to end up at .500.

LOL

I jinxed them with all my playoff team talk! Well, it's unfortunate about Duran (who I am always high on), but you have to like what Abreu has shown. I think it is time to cut ties with Refsnyder, he just has no power anymore. For rest of year, here are things I'd like to see:

1) Whitlock regain his form, and go into 2024 as our high leverage 7/8 guy
2) Story plays almost every day and does not strike out twice per game.
3) Casas takes that Olson/Riley type of leap heading into 2024.
4) Houck regains confidence and has some Quality Starts.
5) Turner gets his 100 RBI, just a pro's pro.

Got back from a movie just in time to see Cora pull James Paxton in the second, and I know the Red Sox starting pitching has been Not Great even beyond being mostly built from high-upside injury reclamation projects, but it feels like Cora manages like he's got the endless supply of guys who throw 100 coming out of the bullpen other teams do. Maybe today was the day it was absolutely justified, but does Cora have an unusually quick hook, above and beyond what he's got to work with?

I like Bloom more than a lot of Twitter Red Sox Nation, but this is the second year in a row that it appears Bloom may have gotten too cute with the "we aren't quite buyers, and we aren't quite sellers" activity at the deadline.

As I interpret it, Bloom and team ownership hasn't really seen the 2021-2023 Red Sox as truly able to compete with the big boys for the World Series, unless everything went optimally well. (I agree.) In 2021, pretty much everything goes well, and the team (frankly) lucks into getting two games from the World Series. This causes some Red Sox fans to set unrealistic expectations for the state of the franchise going into 2022, and (not unlike 2023) the 2022 Red Sox were just good enough in late July to spark a conversation about whether or not the team should go all-in. Meanwhile, other fans (like me) thought the team should be sellers, as they had a number of veterans who were clearly not part of the team's long-term plans.

Bloom ends up doing a clever pair of trades, trading Christian Vazquez (who was not coming back, and was likely in decline) for two pretty good prospects (Enmanuel Valdez and Wilmer Abreu). He then trades a Jake Diekmann for Reese McGuire, who is cheaper, under team control, and better than Vazquez. He also acquires Eric Hosmer for nothing much to stuff up the gaping hole that was 1B, but he was awful, and had nothing to do with anything.

The team was 47-39 at one point in July, and ended up 78-84. This caused some fans to say that Bloom's lack of buying at the deadline sunk the team, demoralized them, etc. This is ridiculous.

But it also crazy that he did not trade guys like JD Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, if only in service of getting the team under the penalties of the top tier of the luxury tax. It cost the team heavily in terms of draft picks, especially compensatory picks when guys like Bogaerts and Eovaldi signed elsewhere. This was not retroactive complaining - this was actively discussed before the trade deadline.

Now, we get to 2023, and Bloom again acquired short-term veterans in order to buy time until the farm system delivers. Many of his acquisitions have done well: Turner, Martin, Jansen, Duvall. Yoshida has gone pretty well. And things were going well enough for the team to be 56-47, at one point, just days before the deadline.

Again, some fans said it is time to buy - we can make the playoffs! Others (like me) once again said this team didn't yet have what it takes, and should sell high on a number of veterans, including Paxton, Turner, and Duvall. Not unlike 2022, Bloom did...pretty much nothing, in terms of picking a clear direction.

Since being 56-47, the team has gone 13-19, is now 69-66, and enters September out of the playoff hunt. I appreciate that the team stayed competitive enough, long enough, that I only have about two weeks between when the Red Sox are cooked, and NFL football begins.

Honestly, that is more than I expected from the team this year, and Bloom was able to do it while:
1) Not committing a ton of long-term money to guys who you instantly regret;
2) Developing several young players are pretty clearly building block pieces - Bello and Casas are two of the best young new players to emerge in 2023. Crawford, Duran, and Wong are useful players on a really good team. Devers is locked up, and Yoshida looks like a valuable player.
3) Building the farm system to a point where it appears to legitimately be humming now. Rafaela had a great 2023, and will now have September to help figure out what we have. Roman Anthony has exploded as a prospect. Mayer is generally on track to be our SS in a few years. We have a legit catching prospect who is on a fast track. Nick Yorke may not be on track to be a star, but he is on track to be a potential regular at 2B for us in 2025. There is more depth in the system than there has been since pre-Dombrowski.

Here's the big question for me, as the team appears to be wobbling towards a .500 (or slightly worse) season: Should we fans who have generally been preaching patience towards Bloom as he rebuilds a barren organization expect significantly more in 2024? 2025 is looking like the year where guys like Mayer (SS), Yorke (2B), Anthony (OF), Teel (C), Wikelman Gonzalez (SP), and others are lined up to join Casas, Bello, Crawford, Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela, Devers, etc. Can Bloom survive another season like 2022-2023, even if the promise of big-time reinforcements is at AAA next year and performing well?

I think he can, as long as he adds a couple of few more pieces. Casas, Bello and Yoshida are solid. Duran is a bonehead, as that injury was totally avoidable.

Also, I'd keep Duvall if he's not asking for the moon.

I see that Teel and Anthony were both promoted to AA Portland today, after tearing the cover off the ball with good defense in high-A. The AA lineup, once Mayer is back, will include:

C- Teel, who is 21 years old
1B - Blaze Jordan (20) or maybe Hickey (a catcher who is 23, but looks like he can legit hit, and you could see him eventually making the majors as a backup catcher who could play a passable 3B/1B while hitting enough to add value)
2B - Yorke (21)
3B - Meidroth (22)
SS - Mayer (20)
OF - Anthony (19)

Again, I see how by the end of 2025, the major league team could look something like this:

C - Teel
1B - Casas
2B - Story, with Yorke in the mix
3B - Devers
SS - Mayer
LF - Yoshida
CF - Rafaela
RF - Anthony
DH - Acquisition
Bench - Duran, Wong, Abreu, Meidroth among the possibilities

The rotation is the big mystery. The arms are not in the system, and Whitlock and Houck had lost seasons in 2023. I think Bello and Crawford can be part of a good rotation in 2025...but the other three slots probably go to pitchers who are not on the team, and who will likely command either big FA money, or big prospects from a team selling.

The two hardest things in pro sports to nail down are a star NFL quarterback, and a reliable, healthy top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. In the last ~25 years, the Red Sox have gone all-in five times for a true stud: Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Price, and Sale.

Pedro was one of the greatest baseball trades of the last 40 years. Transformational.

Schilling was almost as spectacular a deal - we simply don't win in 2004 without him, and for all his baggage post-career, he was an absolute horse when it mattered most.

Beckett was critical to the 2007 title (as was Mike Lowell, who came in the trade as a salary dump and ended up being wonderful), but obviously declined faster than anyone thought he would. Again, though: No ring in 2007 without him.

Sale was amazing for about two years, and has delivered virtually no value since his contract extension kicked in. At the time, it looked like we gave up two studs for him, but Moncada and Kopech have not worked out. The problem with Sale was not the trade...it was the extension.

You'd make all four trades again without thinking, right? The best player traded among these four deals was probably Hanley Ramirez, with Anibal Sanchez, Carl Pavano, and Tony Armas, Jr at least having careers.

And as for David Price, he was the one free agent signing of the group. That didn't work out, and his salary dump was a big part of the Mookie trade. Taking on about $50 million of Price's deal was part of why the return for Mookie was not as lucrative.

But if you can get an established ace, you do it, period, end of sentence. And it is hard to see how the Red Sox get back to a legit contender by 2025 without pulling the trigger on a trade in the spirit of the Pedro/Beckett/Sale trades.

Y'know what's crazy?! Tanner Houck has the most WAR from the entire 2017 draft. Good on him, but that's a crappy draft if he's the best. (Drew Rasmussen didn't sign after getting drafted in 1st, so technically, he would be classified as 2018 when he was redrafted and signed)

I am rooting for him hard now that he's back and think/hope he'll be our #3 next year.

Again, I see how by the end of 2025, the major league team could look something like this:

2B - Story, with Yorke in the mix

I'd expect Story will opt out at the end of 2025.

So Story can opt out after 2025, as villageidiom says, and void out the 26 and 27 seasons, where he is scheduled to make $25m each season. However, if he tells the team he wants to opt out, the Red Sox can negate his decision by agreeing to pick up his 2028 team option, which is also worth $25m. (Finally, if Story does not opt out after 2025, but plays it out through 2027, then either the team can pick up his 2028 option for $25m, or they can decline it for $5m.)

I know he's been hurt, blah, blah, blah, but I find it almost unfathomable that Story would leave $55m in guaranteed money on the table to explore the market. '26 and '27 are his age 33 and 34 seasons. In his first two years with the team, he's made $40m to give them 2.5 WAR, most of it defensive WAR.

With Mayer and Yorke (and Bonaci, and Meidroth, and maybe even guys like Urias and Valdez) in the pipeline for 2025 and beyond, I think that the organization would drive Story to the airport if he wants to opt out after 2025.

On an unrelated note, I think we've got our first base issue solved for a while. Since May 3rd, when Casas finally started busting out of his tough first month, here's his stat line:

366 PAs
318 ABs
20 HRs
17 2Bs
2 3Bs
.302/.391/.557

Even with the awful first month, he's now 6th in OPS and OPS+, 9th in OBP, 11th in SLG, 9th in walks, 5th in offensive WP%...he is 23 years old.

C - Teel
1B - Casas
2B - Story, with Yorke in the mix
DH - Devers
SS - Mayer
LF - Yoshida
CF - Rafaela
RF - Anthony
3B - Acquisition

Minor change, but I think it's going to happen.

Taking stock as of today:

7 against Baltimore - Boston wins 3 (extra game is in Baltimore) : TBD
7 against Houston - Boston wins 3 (extra game is in Houston) : Boston won 2 of 7
5 against Tampa - Boston wins 2 (extra game is in Tampa) : TBD but Boston won the first one
3 against the Dodgers - Boston wins 1
3 against Texas - Boston wins 1 : TBD
3 against Toronto - Boston wins 1 (series is in Toronto) : TBD
4 against the Yankees - Boston wins 2 : TBD
3 against the White Sox - Boston wins 2 : TBD
3 against Kansas City - Boston wins 2
2 "bonus" wins : TBD

As of last night they have won 1 of the 2 I projected to win against Tampa, with 4 more to play. If they can take 2 more then that's one of the "bonus" wins. However, they're going to need a third one of those to make up for the extra loss against Houston.

The Rangers having fallen from the division lead to the 3rd wild card spot actually helps Boston, as the Red Sox have 3 games coming up against the Rangers whereas they have none against the Mariners. That puts the outcome more in their control than it had been. That said, 14 games have passed and they haven't improved on the projection. The window is closing.

On an unrelated note, I think we've got our first base issue solved for a while. Since May 3rd, when Casas finally started busting out of his tough first month, here's his stat line:

366 PAs
318 ABs
20 HRs
17 2Bs
2 3Bs
.302/.391/.557

Even with the awful first month, he's now 6th in OPS and OPS+, 9th in OBP, 11th in SLG, 9th in walks, 5th in offensive WP%...he is 23 years old.

No no no! As I clearly showed in a previous thread, there's no reason think he turned any kind of corner around May 3. One of my many brilliant and prescient predictions.

79.5 Wins - OVER. Mid-80s, in contention for a Wild Card.
14.5 Sale starts - OVER. He heads into the year healthy so what could possibly go wrong?
24.5 Casas HR - OVER. Tough one. I think he is going to swing for the fences a bit more and, if he stays healthy all year, that gets him into the high 20s at least.
3.0 Verdugo WAR - OVER. Another close call. He's a good hitter and appears to have readjusted his approach to fit his strengths.
Turner/Duvall more HR - Duvall. I'm assuming he gets 400+ PA.
19.5 Whitlock starts - OVER??? I added a couple question marks. I think they will give him as much chance as possible to stick in the rotation, but usage, effectiveness in longer outings, and health are all question marks.
44.5 Devers doubles - UNDER. Very close. I think he'll have an excellent year but right around 40 doubles.
94.5 Devers walks - UNDER. The rest of the lineup isn't bad enough to push his walk total this high.
Marcelo Mayer MLB debut - September 23, 2023. One day after VI's guess so that if he debuts any time after that, I am righter than him. (Yes, I watch the Price Is Right, why?)
49.5 Rafaela prospect ranking - NA. Cannot be ranked because he will have used up his eligibility on the second half, playing an amazing CF for the big club.
Bonus:.300 Masataka Yoshida batting average -- OVER. Both ZIPS (.305) and Steamer (.299) project him to have the highest batting average in the AL. I like him.

Of all of these, I can't believe that Casas over 24.5 home runs is even possible, much less very likely. What a nice year he is having.

Which of the following Boston rookies has more WAR per BB-Ref as of this morning?

Masataka Yoshida
Triston Casas
Connor Wong
Brayan Bello

Answer (highlight to view): They are listed in ascending WAR order. Bello has 3.7, Wong 2.2, Casas 2.1, Yoshida 1.4.

Beckett was critical to the 2007 title (as was Mike Lowell, who came in the trade as a salary dump and ended up being wonderful), but obviously declined faster than anyone thought he would. Again, though: No ring in 2007 without him.

Let's argue about unimportant things.

2007:
Beckett - 6.5 WAR, ~$7 mil
Lugo - 0.7 WAR, ~$9 mil


Sanchez - 0.3 WAR, league min.
Ramirez - 4.4 WAR, league min.

The Red Sox could have not made this deal, not signed Lugo and used the $16 mil in savings to acquire another good to very good starter and been just as well off.

But what about the postseason???? Calm down. Beckett pitched a 4-0 shutout in an ALDS that they swept. In the ALCS, he pitched in games they won 10-3 and 7-1. In the WS, he won a 13-1 blowout in a series they swept. He pitched great but without him the Red Sox still very likely win.

What about Mike Lowell???? I thought the point was the importance of an ace, but fine. Lowell, as noted above, was a salary dump. The Red Sox could have easily had him for next to nothing simply for taking on his salary.

And let's not forget, a big part of why the 2006 Red Sox did not compete as expected was Beckett putting up a 5.00+ ERA (2.7 WAR) and Alex Gonzalez posting 1.2 WAR at SS. Meanwhile, Hanley had 4.9 WAR and Anibal 3.7 WAR for the Marlins.

For 2024:

C - Wong
1B - Casas (hopefully his d improves)
2B - Reyes/Urias with Yorke and others in the mix
SS - Story
LF - Yoshida
CF - Rafaela or Duran
RF - Duval (maybe Verdugo if Cora is gone)
3B - Devers
DH - Turner?

Rafaela or Duran are dealt in a package for a controlled starter.

For 2025:
C - Teel/Wong
1B - Casas
2B - Story
DH - Devers
SS - Mayer
LF - Yoshida
CF - Rafaela or Duran
RF - Anthony
3B - Urias, Meidroth, or an acquisition

Is there a chance that Devers gets moved to 1B, and he and Casas share the position and DH?

Turner, who will be 39 next season, has had a very good season, and is one of the variables that has gone almost best-case scenario for the team in 2023. His contract is interesting, in that the team basically agreed to give him a 1/$15 contract, with some extra security for Turner if he got injured or markedly declined. He gets $8.3m for 2023, then he either can pick up a $13.4m player option for 2024, or he can decline it, and the team gives him a $6.7m buyout.

Given that he's having such a solid year, there's no way Turner doesn't take the buyout and go back on the market, where somebody will give him at least a 1/$10m deal. In fact, he could probably get another deal similar to his current one, where he gets $8m for 2024, and then another friendly 2025 option deal.

I don't think the Red Sox are going to be that team, and that's fine; as noted above, there are several guys who we might want to put at DH time to time, anyway, and we have a few young players who look like they can hit, but have a questionable glove (like Abreu and Valdez). I would be frustrated if we put any serious money into the DH position, because we need to put as many chips as possible in one of two places, IMO: Frontline starting pitching, and (maybe) a top-tier outfielder if an opportunity to trade-and-extend comes up.

Is there a chance that Devers gets moved to 1B, and he and Casas share the position and DH?

I certainly hope so. Chang & Story at SS, Arroyo at 2B, & Turner at 1B are the only above average defenders in the infield this year. Chang sucks, Arroyo is valuable only because he can move around, and Turner may be a FA next year.

For 2024:

C - Wong/McGuire
1B - Devers
2B - Throw a bunch of #### against the wall and see what sticks
SS - Story
LF - Yoshida
CF - Rafaela & Duran
RF - Verdugo or go big with Cody Bellinger
3B - Matt Chapman
DH - Casas

Max Kepler could be a free agent this year, though Twins have a 10M club option. Kind of Beliinger-like, could handle Fenway RF for sure.

The obvious problem with the lineup, I think, is redundancy.

First, we have 3-4 guys in there every day who should probably be DHing: Devers, Casas, Turner, and Yoshida. Turner probably departs and you can sort of hope Casas finds his way 1B (or Devers does) but then you've still got 2 guys for one spot. Second, you have two guys whose value is highest playing CF: Rafaela and Duran. You could move Rafaela to RF assunming that Verdugo departs, but then you're wasting some of his value, especially on the road.

One solution is to try to deal from one of these strengths for a SP under team control for a while. Could one of the CFs help to pry away Cease, if the White Sox are going full rebuild? Do the A's have anything worth scavenging still in their rotation? Do the Padres clean house and start over? Are the Nats, Royals, Rockies, or Tigers far enough away that they could be conviced to part with one of their young arms?

The other big question for the offseason is who to lock up, for how long, and for how much? The two big candidates look like Casas and Bello.

For Casas, it's hard to find a good comp but Matt Olson might be a decent starting point. Olson was one of the top 5 1B from 2019-2021 and after he was traded, he signed an 8 year deal for $168 mil. The contract covered his last 2 arb years and then 6 free agent years (plus an option). Olson projected better than Casas does and he was much closer to free agency, but I think we can at least use his contract as an upper limit on what Casas can expect. Olson earned 5/15/21 in his arb years, then $132 mil for his ages 30-35. The equivalent for Casas might look something like this:

Age 24-25 - Pre Arb: $2 mil
Age 25-28 - Arb: $41 mil
Age 29-31 - FA: $90 mil (???)
Total: 8 years, $133 mil

The $90 mil number is biggest fudge here. I'm basing it on two things. First, although Olson's free agent years averaged $22 mil/year, I'm assuming about 2/3 of that is for ages 30-32, so about $84 mil total or $28 mil/year. Second, Casas is reaching free agency a year earlier than he did, so those 3 years are instead 29-31 for Casas, so I bumped it up a little to $30 mil/year.

But that's just the beginning. We again have to account for fact that Casas, despite his excellent showing this year, likely doesn't project to be a borderline All-Star like Olson did. And second, he is much further from FA, so there is a lot more risk and variability. With the way contracts have exploded in the last two years, I'd also give him a bit of a bump. So locking him up this offseason? I'm going to say 8 years, $120 mil. + an option.


Someone else can figure out Bello. :)

Second, you have two guys whose value is highest playing CF: Rafaela and Duran. You could move Rafaela to RF

For all his speed, Duran is below average in CF. Sure, he *can* play CF, but if you are going to move one to RF, Duran should be the one to move. His value right now is in his bat, and a 120 OPS+ plays just fine in RF. If you think he can maintain that, then keep him and hope he improves in RF; if you don't think he can maintain that offense, then he should be traded while the perception of him is the highest.

Second, you have two guys whose value is highest playing CF: Rafaela and Duran.

The Red Sox are always best when they essentially have someone who can sort of get by in center actually playing RF. Fenway is a really difficult RF to play and many of the great Sox teams have done well by having a really great fielder out there; Evans, JD, Victorino, Mookie, etc.

You know what you have in Verdugo; I'd cut bait there, put Duran in RF, Rafaela in CF, Yoshida continues to get by in LF. If you can score another good arm for Duran, then you make that trade and find someone else who can play RF.

Casas really seems to have figured it out. I initially thought when he started to rake that he'd just cool off, pitchers would figure him out and that would be it. Shows you how much I know. The Olson comp is ok, but Matt is also good with the leather. Casas, not so much.

The Red Sox are always best when they essentially have someone who can sort of get by in center actually playing RF. Fenway is a really difficult RF to play and many of the great Sox teams have done well by having a really great fielder out there; Evans, JD, Victorino, Mookie, etc.

Totally agree.

You know what you have in Verdugo; I'd cut bait there,

This is just crazy talk. Unless by 'cut bait' you mean offer arb and trade him for an legit starter, $10M for 2-4 WAR next year is absolutely something the Sox should do. After 2024? He can go wherever, I wont miss him.

Re: you and Darren talking trading an OF for a controlled pitcher, sure, I think the biggest issue on the team is essentially 1.5 good controlled starters, but I always assume a 4th OF is going to be needed. Right now next year's team has that, but trade someone and they will have zero depth in the OF. Refsnyder =/= depth.

This is just crazy talk. Unless by 'cut bait' you mean offer arb and trade him for an legit starter, $10M for 2-4 WAR next year is absolutely something the Sox should do.

This is exactly what I was thinking. Sorry, I didn't mean to literally just get rid of him for nothing, there's some value there and I suggest they get what they can for him. Of course they'll either trade him to the Brewers or LA, where he'll play 4 different positions and slash 285/350/485 and make the Sox look like idiots.

Of course they'll either trade him to the Brewers or LA, where he'll play 4 different positions and slash 285/350/485 and make the Sox look like idiots.

If they go old-school and trade him for two injured relievers, he'd just need to show up and they'll look like idiots.

It's not a bad idea to shop/trade Verdugo. But I don't think Duran and Rafaela are proven enough to be locked into 2 positions. It wasn't very many months ago when doubts were put forth about Duran even being good enough to be a 5th or 4th outfielder.

For all his speed, Duran is below average in CF. Sure, he *can* play CF, but if you are going to move one to RF, Duran should be the one to move.

I didn't mean to imply he was a good CF, but that his value is tied up in playing a passable CF (FWIW, his OAA and RAA in CF are zero this year). I was thinking he doesn't have the arm for RF so if they moved anyone there, it might be Rafaela? I don't think moving either there is a good idea.

It's not a bad idea to shop/trade Verdugo. But I don't think Duran and Rafaela are proven enough to be locked into 2 positions. It wasn't very many months ago when doubts were put forth about Duran even being good enough to be a 5th or 4th outfielder.

Totally agree here. I wouldn't move Verdugo to make room for one of these guys. I think you either deal one of them or count on both to be in the OF mix.

Re: you and Darren talking trading an OF for a controlled pitcher, sure, I think the biggest issue on the team is essentially 1.5 good controlled starters, but I always assume a 4th OF is going to be needed. Right now next year's team has that, but trade someone and they will have zero depth in the OF. Refsnyder =/= depth.

Agree to disagree on Refsnyder. He's a good 4th OF, especially as a platoon partner to a lefty like Duran. For better or worse, I think Yoshida is locked in in LF, one or both of Rafaela and Duran in CF, Verdugo sent packing, and Refsnyder coming off the bench. I'd want one more starting RF to replace Verdugo. Abreu might also be considered a depth option (I guess, if you squint).

You know who has been starting a lot of games in RF recently? Bobby Dalbec for Worcester. Do what you will with this information.

put Duran in RF, Rafaela in CF

I'm putting Raffey anywhere and everywhere, except catcher of course. Make him the latest supersub regular from heaven.

Well Red Sox fans, last night was not a hopeful sign of future success.
Houck pitched decently, but the bullpen was hideous.
Brandish for the Os was excellent with 9 strikeouts and only 2 bad pitches.
That said, the Orioles are on a run whereby all their bloop hits fall in; all their reserves have human highlight catches and almost everyone of their relief pitchers throws competently, if not superbly.
The Sox may win 3 of 7 against the Os but don't be surprised if that number is only 2 or 1.
Also Wong was very good at bat as well as behind the plate. As I’ve only seen a handful of Boston games this year, only Deavers stands out as a player I see excelling.

I hereby dub last night the "2023 season as microcosm" game. Pitching kept letting them down, but the hitters never gave up. Young guys were contributing and the team kept pushing, but ultimately fell short. Defense did the opposition some favors. And so it goes.

It was exciting and messy and fun and I never gave up hope that they could pull it off!!

I continue to believe that this is a team that is close to being a contender, this late-season slide hasn't diminished that feeling.. And the holes are GLARIINGLY obvious so it's definitely on ownership and mgmt to fill them. There aren't any excuses left if they fail to field a contender in 2024.

Who's getting fired and who should be getting fired?

I want to be right for a few minutes before he goes on a bad streak and ruins it.

And why be skeptical of Wong?

Steamer .244/.293/.413
ZIPS .253/.304/.435
Actual .257/.313/.459

Whyyyyyy????? :)

Conor Wong 2023: .254/.309/.420, 94 OPS+

I am a genius again! (In a couple weeks, it will probably be Jacksone's turn again, but for now, it's me! :)

Who's getting fired and who should be getting fired?

Nobody, and Alex Cora?

I don't think Cora should get fired for the team not making the playoffs. It was - and should have been - expected at the beginning of the season that they would not make the playoffs. To me it's more the path they took to get there. For a couple of those items I think it's on Cora or his coaching staff, and it's not good IMO.

The first is their mental game - defense, baserunning, basic stuff like knowing how many outs there are, stuff like that. It feels like not only does the team make a lot of bad throws on defense but they aren't that great at being in position to back up a player. It's almost like they're conditioned to being told where to position themselves at the start of an at-bat but (Yoshida aside, who might actually be good at this) they don't think about where to be otherwise. Plenty of bad throws, but a whole bunch are simply ill-advised throws - or more simply, bad decisions. I recall making this observation about Cora before - he was pretty damn good at getting people to focus in his two first years (2018, 2021) but otherwise the team is best described as buffering. I suppose it's possible that the players are being given too much information in a confusing manner and aren't processing/recalling it fast enough, which is distracting them from just playing the game. But analytics are rampant in MLB, and their opponents are handling it better on the field. Regardless, however it's happening, this is fundamentally a coaching issue.

The second is his short leash on starters even when the bullpen is depleted. Yeah, sometimes your starter doesn't have it and you need the bullpen to pick him up. But, like, sometimes you need the offense to pick him up because the bullpen needs to be picked up from the night before.

The reason I put a question mark at the end of my answer to who should be fired is I'm not at all sure he should be fired. Frankly I don't know who should replace him if they were to fire him. I just feel like the team as a whole doesn't seem to make sound decisions, and they need someone who can improve on that without detracting from what Cora is good at.

That is a great summation of the case against Cora. If the defense was just bad and the baserunning was just slow, there's not much a manager can do. But they seems unprepared and confused both in the field and on the bases. And there doesn't seem to be any accountability (or even lip service about accountability) for these mistakes from Cora. (The exception, of course, is Verdugo, who almost certainly has some other behind the scenes issues.)

The starter/bullpen usage is a little tougher to assess since the team has so much more information than we do. But it does seem, fairly often, that a starter could be stretched a bit more when going well to save the pen a bit. And it feels like a team with so many options in the bullpen ends up with guys I've never heard of pitching meaningful innings way too often.

There is, of course, also a decent case in favor of Cora.

I felt like I was having a productive couple of hours after lunch today. And then I see that while I was doing all that, Nick Pivetta has struck out 7 Yankees batters in 3 innings. Thanks a bunch, Nick, now I suck.

9 Ks through 4 IP. Good Lord, the only thing I accomplished in the additional inning was a couple of email responses and a snarky post about the Mets.

great job, VI.

In the end, Pivetta made me look better.

And of course, my complaining that Cora takes his starters out too early when the bullpen needs help was the ultimate reverse jinx, as Cora stuck with Pivetta too long on a day the bullpen needed protection. Mind you, I'm not going to throw shade at Cora for that one... I wanted to see Pivetta for the 6th as well.

I was thinking the same thing about Pivetta/Cora and your post above. I wasn't watching but HBP, single, double, fly out, single, walk sounds like he maybe Pivetta had lost it at that point. On the other hand, his pitch count was low, he had been pitching well, and that all happened pretty quickly. On the other hand, a close game in the 6th is when you want to have a quick hook.

Going to Llovera in a one run game is not my favorite move either.

Yeah, the thing there, too, is that Pivetta is still getting stretched out from having been in the bullpen for a while. So even if his pitch count is reasonable for Nick Pivetta, Starting Pitcher it was a situation where it would make sense to have someone warming to start the 6th - if it hadn't been the first game of a doubleheader. And then of course, when Pivetta starts with HBP and you decide to get someone warming after that... given pace of play rules a lot can happen before they're warmed.

So for all the times folks have been asking what Chaim Bloom's plan is, I think it's safe to say that today wasn't part of it.

Who's getting fired and who should be getting fired?

I guess we know the answer to the first question.

How does the team responsible for 2003-2018 (more or less) turn into this?

How does the team responsible for 2003-2018 (more or less) turn into this?

That's baseball, Susan. Seriously, it happens all the time, throughout baseball history. Huge ups and downs.

How does the team responsible for 2003-2018 (more or less) turn into this?

In stages.

The team responsible for 2003-2015 was the Epstein era. You had Theo Epstein through 2011, and you had Ben Cherington, an Epstein disciple, for 2012-2015. Cherington wasn't Epstein, and he had various strengths and weaknesses, but he provided continuity in baseball ops from Epstein's tenure. I think it's reasonable to assume that while the personnel would change - lots of top Epstein disciples left for their own GM opportunities - the philosophies for identifying value through the combination of scouting and analytics, the flow of information between front office and the coaches & players, etc., didn't change much.

In late 2015 they go to a PBO structure, hire Dombrowski instead of promoting Cherington, and Cherington left. At that point they are hiring not just a new leader but a new philosophy. He can't learn their information system, so they build a new one. They want to rebuild their analytics team, and start looking at posters of insightful comments on sabermetric sites for potential candidates.* Over his tenure they get worse at drafting and better at acquiring MLB-level talent while the front office is reshaped to support his philosophy. And then in 2019 he and his philosophy are canned, in favor of someone who in theory (and probably in practice) aligns with the old philosophy. Except he's given a front office that was just remade. And an immediate financial constraint. And a pandemic. And a new CBA. So even if he wants to get back to the old philosophy it just takes longer. Development mode takes time. Meanwhile most of their divisional rivals have emerged from development mode and are in like year 7 or 8 of a 10-year plan.

What I don't know is how much of this is seeded in the the waning days of Francona and Epstein and the subsequent effort to win the 2011-12 offseason. I still feel as though the Boston Marathon bombing provided a moment of clarity of purpose for the team, and that the resulting success** allowed the team to overlook a fundamental dysfunction that afflicted leadership from maybe 2010 forward that they didn't really try to deal with until 2015. Likewise, Dombrowski was the cure and an entirely different disease all at once - the 2018 flag will fly forever but it is very clear that most of what Bloom has done right in his tenure is to undo what that flag had cost.

* Ask me how I know! Or more appropriately, evaluate how successful you'd think this approach would be, given that I know!

** That's not to say the WS victory in 2013 was entirely a fluke. They were a talented team, and Cherington made a point to bring in players who had stronger character than the ones he'd sent away, the very kind of players who would respond to clarity of purpose.

How do you know?

We New England sports fans have been so spoiled in the 21st century by success, to the point where we (including myself!) have forgotten that nobody wins all the time. The reason why the Yankees of 1921-1964, and the Celtics of the 1950s-1980s, and the Canadians of 1955-1980 were so dominant was because many of the rules to force parity did not exist at that time.

As noted above, the rules have changed in baseball even since the Epstein "Moneyball" Era. Before, the salary carrots and sticks largely involved taxing the owners. If an owner was willing to pay crazy money for a certain payroll, the pain was constrained to their bank account. Now, the penalties are much more baseball-focused: You lose international signing money. You lose draft picks, and have other drafts pick dropped. (For example, it used to be that if you lost a free agent, you got the signing team's first round pick the next year. Now, when the Red Sox lost Eovaldi and Bogaerts, instead of getting a pair of 2nd round comp picks, they were 4th round comp picks. Not only will those be lesser prospects - it is less total draft money to spread around to go over slot somewhere else.)

That's what made the Patriots so special. The rules were completely stacked against a team doing what they did for 20 years, but they had the owner, coach, and QB needed to do something special. But even with those three things, when they missed on several drafts in the late 2010s, they could not overcome it, and they are now in the NFL's "middle tier purgatory".

Over the past three years, the Red Sox have been, on average, the 11th-highest payroll. However, a lot of that was to pay Sale and Price, who added nothing to the team. This means the functional payroll of the team lately has been below average. And this means that unless the farm system repeatedly hits bullseyes, the team is getting stuck in the middle-tier purgatory...which is how you end up at 80 wins.

I don't know what to expect for the 2024 Red Sox, because I think their impressive wave of position prospects are largely in AA, and will not be ready until 2025 (maybe late 2025?). They have the 1B, 3B, and (I think) LF and CF up already in Casas, Devers, Yoshida, and Rafaela. By 2025, they could have their catcher (Teel), right fielder (Anthony), second baseman (Yorke), and SS (Mayer), as well as a Jed Lowrie supersub type in Meidroth. I think Abreu and Valdez can flat out hit, and they should make their DH a cheap platoon combo that includes Abreu, and figure out how to best use Valdez.

That's a very exciting proposition - every young player I just listed in already in AA or higher, and it covers every position on the diamond, the DH, and bench guys. But that will not be next year's team. So if the new GM is told to compete for a title run in 2024, then a lot of those prospects are going to have be traded for frontline pitching, because outside of Bello and maybe Crawford and Whitlock, there is not a lot of pitching help on the horizon.

How do you know?

In March 2017 I was invited to the front office for a meeting about some of the ideas I'd expressed in comments on Tango's site. It wasn't an interview, but they did try to sell me on the idea that it is awesome to work there if I'm interested.

Ooohhhh, I'm very jealous! What was your comment about?

Ooohhhh, I'm very jealous! What was your comment about?

Whatever it was, they really dodged a bullet.

(j/k)

Conor Wong 2023: .254/.309/.420, 94 OPS+

I am a genius again! (In a couple weeks, it will probably be Jacksone's turn again, but for now, it's me! :)

Couple of weeks? Couple of games and he's back to an 88 OPS+. Nothing like an 0-12 streak after your post!

Ooohhhh, I'm very jealous! What was your comment about?

It was a few comments but I think this comment was the one that got them to reach out.

Whatever it was, they really dodged a bullet.

They did. Not that I wouldn't have been able to deliver value, but rather that the area where they needed value delivered I wouldn't have been nearly the best person to hire. Had they needed someone to direct the analytics work I would have been a great fit, but that wasn't what they were looking for. They needed people to do the analytics work, and to fix the data problems inherent to a ball-tracking system that would confuse the foul lines for the path of the ball, and stuff like that.

I bet they wouldn't have matched your current salary.

They definitely wouldn't have matched one-fourth of my current salary.

(EDIT: That's more of a comment on their starting pay scale than it is a humblebrag or whatever.)

Would you like to invest in a creation of mine?

With 11 games left, they need to win 5 to beat the over line (79.5). Doable. Likely not though. 2 more with TX, then 3 with the White Sox, then the rest with TB or BAL.