Where We Headed?

So I’ve been pondering this a bit lately and jacksone made the following comment that I think helped me narrow my thoughts down;

What do all of you expect or hope for next year? Because for me, this team and organization is still a year away from legit contention. There may be a solid wild card run next in ‘24, but I am not expecting any sort of postseason success. 2025, for sure, I expect them to contend and be a legit force.

With that in mind, why get someone like Lynn that costs prospects and doesn’t help ‘25? I mean, FA, go ####### wild, but don’t give up assets for this year or the next.

I almost entirely agree with the second line but the first line I’m not sure I’m sold on.  This has felt very much like a .500 team from day one and nothing I’ve seen makes me feel any different going forward.  Importantly they are doing this with some new players under club control contributing in positive ways.  Yoshida is proving himself worth the money (at least offensively), after a slow start Casas is looking like a good MLB first baseman (again, offensively) with a .262/.353/.455 line since May 1 and Connor Wong is somewhat surprisingly becoming a legitimate MLB catcher.  Add in some encouraging work in the minors from guys like Rafaella and Yorke and a few little wins in the bullpen particularly Josh Winckowski and there are some positives.

But the most important thing for this team, and any team really, is starting pitching.  The game and pitcher usage has changed over the years but it all, ahem, starts with the starters.  If you can’t trust the guys early in the games to give you a chance to win there ain’t much you can do to fix that.  With that in mind I think this year is both a success and a sign of why the Sox can be very good in 2024.  Beyond that there is a case to aggressively go after a legit starting pitcher right now though as I touched on in the other thread I suspect finding one (and Lance Lynn ain’t it) at a price worth paying isn’t likely.  But let’s look at some numbers;

Bello - 8-4
Sale - 8-3
Whitlock - 5-3
Houck - 6-7
Paxton - 3-5

30-22 (93-69 pace)

Everyone else - 10-17 (60-102 pace)

This is far from thorough study.  Every team is going to use their 6-7-8 starters at some point.  It feels like the Sox have used those guys a LOT and have done a very poor job of filling those slots.  Admittedly, a big chunk of this is the poor performances by Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta (7-10 in starts by those two).  These are pitchers the Sox were counting on and while I had no problem with that when the year started it’s clear those decisions failed.  Pivetta at least seems to be turning into a pretty strong reliever and I like the guy so I’m enjoying that.

My point though is this.  This feels a fair amount like 2015 though maybe to jacksone’s point it’s 2014.  Mookie/Marcelo isn’t here yet, Xander/Triston is finding his footing and JBJ/Ceddanne is still a work in progress.  But in the winter of 2015/2016 the Sox made the splash for David Price and while Price’s Red Sox tenure wasn’t quite what we’d hoped he was largely down to injury he was very good (118 ERA+) and in 2016 pitched well (112 ERA+) while backed by Cy Porcello.  Unlike that 2015/2016 team the current Sox DO have a guy you might predict to make such a leap in the form of Brayan Bello.  I think the Sox can be legitimate contenders in 2024 with some pitching improvements which should be more than doable.  Getting back to my earlier point the Sox are 40-39 and a whopping 3 games out of a Wild Card spot.  Rob Bradford made the point this morning that the Mariners were in a similar place last year when they acquired Luis Castillo and Carlos Santana and promptly went on a tear.  I don’t know if the Sox can make such a deal (see my post #61 in the prior thread) but I don’t think it’s unreasonable that such a thing could be done this winter either through free agency or some kind of trade.

On a general front the Sox feel very much like they’ve gotten what they want from their top end guys (save the underwhelming Devers who I suspect is pressing) but have some serious black holes cough *shortstop* cough and in the rotation where there have been too many “give away” starts.  This month they are 12-12 with three losses by more than 3 runs; 6-2 to Tampa, the start by Dermody in Cleveland and the start by Garza in Minnesota.  And speaking of being .500 their month to month records this year are 15-14 (April), 13-13 (May), 12-12 (June).  To paraphrase Kevin Costner one more win every other week would have them 46-33 and comfortably in a Wild Card spot.  My point is not that they should go balls to the wall this year, there are still too many holes and I would rather see the development of the in house guys.  But I think to jacksone’s point there is a very reasonable path to being a legitimate contender in 2024.