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   1. Cmax Sox the Box that Rocks? Posted: July 14, 2016 at 09:55 PM (#5265388)
I like it for every reason except the last one you have. We traded an absolute pure caliber top prospect (Ace+ potential) 18 year old for.. a guy who's career high in innings at 27 years old is this year, at 102. His peripheral numbers are great, his pedigree is decent, but before this season, Pomeranz's total IP look like a single season for David Price. He is unproven for longevity in any way shape or form, and has serious red flags for durability. That alone makes this a poor move. As Jose mentioned, Espinoza could have been the center piece of a sure thing in someone like Teheran or (crosses fingers retroactively somehow) Jose Fernandez.

We may over-value prospects, but this kid was the real deal.
   2. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: July 14, 2016 at 10:12 PM (#5265392)
Yeah it is good to strike quickly but at the same time I feel like Espinoza could have been part of a deal for a guy like Teheran or Gray. 

The 2016 version of Sonny Gray isn't necessarily better than Pomeranz.
   3. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: July 14, 2016 at 10:15 PM (#5265396)
Yeah, that's a concern but I'm still more confident in him going forward than Pomeranz and he's got an extra year of club control.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: July 14, 2016 at 10:19 PM (#5265400)
I like this trade.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2016 at 10:38 PM (#5265413)
It's a good point that Espinoza could have been a big piece in a trade for a bigger name. That said, it would take Espinoza plus some stuff to land that bigger name so it kinda depends what the other stuff would have been.

18 at A-ball is so far away from anything, especially for a pitcher, that I'd trade a guy like that without much hesitation.

(crosses fingers retroactively somehow) Jose Fernandez.

I wouldn't trust Loria farther than I can throw Bartolo Colon but I'm pretty sure he's said Fernandez is going nowhere this season and the Marlins are currently tied for the 2nd wild card ... and we all know what happens when the Marlins win the wild card. They just traded for Fernando Rodney. Fernandez is owed only about $1 M more for the rest of the season, Mike Dunn and Tom Koehler (whoever he is) make more. You'd have to bowl Miami over to get them to even listen. Now if you meant going after Fernandez in the offseason, that could be a different story.

So, Tom Koehler is a SP. First year arb-eligible in 2016, he had 535 IP (valuable) at a 92 ERA+ (meh) for 3.8 WAR (meh). He's getting $3.5 M in his first arb year. Fernandez had injury problems of course and threw just 289 IP (only 116 the last two years) but at a 160 ERA+, good for 9 WAR. He's getting $2.8 M in his first arb year. Baseball is a funny game ... with a hilarious salary structure.
   6. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 14, 2016 at 11:58 PM (#5265463)
There is a very real chance that Pomeranz’ season gets cut short which would make this deal look very bad.

But you can say this about any pitcher. Also you can say this about Espinoza for the next 4 years BEFORE he even reaches the majors.

Pomeranz can get out MLB hitters, that's a really important thing to remember. And when healthy, he's pretty darn good at it.

   7. Cmax Sox the Box that Rocks? Posted: July 15, 2016 at 02:59 AM (#5265484)
I feel like Sonny Gray is going to be the next Tim Lincecum. I watched poor Timmy decay in SF and I just feel like Sonny isn't too different.

@Walt Davis - Fernandez is the joking pipe dream. Maybe Pomeranz was the best pitcher available for the price we got him for. Who knows.
   8. Cmax Sox the Box that Rocks? Posted: July 15, 2016 at 03:03 AM (#5265485)
I think DD's got a good plan here. He shops Espinoza to the Padres because their minors organization breeds quality pitching (the sox blow at this seemingly). In 3 years when he just starts emerging we trade more prospects back to them. If he never comes up, we don't care. DD's a genius!
   9. John DiFool2 Posted: July 15, 2016 at 06:24 AM (#5265498)
The Fangraphs article showed how his cutter has added a definite 3rd option to his repertoire. And the low innings totals actually might be a good thing, in that there would be low mileage on the arm.
   10. Darren Posted: July 15, 2016 at 07:18 AM (#5265506)
Crossposting: Of the top prospects, I'm glad they dealt the 18-year-old pitcher. Don't really know about Pomeranz.
   11. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: July 15, 2016 at 08:15 AM (#5265517)
Yeah, Espinoza might turn out to be the next Pedro... but it's more likely that he blows out his arm, and much more likely that he doesn't cut it as a starter and turns into a bullpen arm.

Pomeranz is a former prospect who is finally healthy, and who is pitching very well. This team was going nowhere without at least one more starter.

I like the trade.
   12. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: July 15, 2016 at 08:28 AM (#5265522)
Of the top prospects, I'm glad they dealt the 18-year-old pitcher.

Agreed. Based on DD's comments last night I don't think we'll see any of the other top guys dealt. Sounds like they are done with big moves.
   13. MHS Posted: July 15, 2016 at 09:40 AM (#5265561)
It is really impossible for me to evaluate this move. I am not a professional talent evaluator, and what I am talented in - quantitative analysis is useless here.

If Pomeranz remains healthy, this may work out very well for the Red Sox.

His performance over the last 3 years has been really quiet good, he isn't a one year wonder.

Betting on a pitchers health is always a risky proposition.

   14. J. Sosa Posted: July 15, 2016 at 12:31 PM (#5265710)
Trading good prospects always makes me nervous, but it would have taken Espinoza+ to get something better than Pomeranz. I wouldn't really want them to trade Espinoza+. They had to get a good starter, and I think this was about as cheap as they could possibly have gotten one. That he has some team control left makes me like the trade quite a bit.

Pomeranz's arm might fall off tomorrow but it is a trade that I think had to be made given the composition of the team.
   15. morineko Posted: July 16, 2016 at 07:28 AM (#5266173)
If it makes you feel any better, one of Pomeranz's DL stints was because of a broken hand sustained while punching an inanimate object after a bad performance.

Actually, that doesn't make me feel any better....
   16. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: July 19, 2016 at 10:11 PM (#5267976)
Just as long as he realizes that David Ortiz just moves slowly and is not an inanimate object.

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