I agree with this. Here in this thread. Which I definitely saw.

You didn't mention the 3 BB and 0 K in this massive sample size against this world class competition.

What I take from this is: 80 ARM, 80 POWER, 90 HIT. CFBPS coming soon.

Besides Yoshida, who else played in the WBC from the Sox? I noticed Hernandez, Devers, and Verdugo. Anyone else?

I listened to a SoxProspects podcast last week featuring Jim Callis and Alex Speier, where they got into the Red Sox farm system. One takeaway? Both guests see the system as very top heavy, with very few prospects that are truly interesting (Casas, Mayer, Bleis, Rafaela, maybe Mata), and only three that have any chance of impacting the Red Sox in the next two seasons (Casas now; Mata later this year; maybe Rafaela if he can hit at all next year).

Worse yet, it is not like there are a ton of low-level prospects with lots of upside exciting scouts - it is a really weak system beyond those five guys, unless Nick Yorke gets it back together.

Their take was that Chaim Bloom, seeing the weakness of the system, and knowing how long it takes to draft and sign impact prospects and then develop them, tried to accelerate the process with a ton of trades explicitly designed to get guys in AA and AAA who had a chance of providing homegrown help quickly:

- Downs and Wong as part of the Betts trade: That clearly failed. Downs' failure was a focus of the podcast, because it was a rare chance to grab a high-level impact prospect in a trade, and it flopped.
- Binelas and Hamilton in the JBJ-for-Renfroe trade: Neither analyst had Hamilton in their top 30 prospects; Binelas is going nowhere fast. This trade appears unsuccessful.
- Seabold as part of the Workman trade with the Phillies: Seabold has been DFA'ed. It failed.
- Roberto Hernandez for Jeffrey Springs with Tampa: Hernandez is struggling in AAA, while Springs just signed a pretty lucrative extension with Tampa. This trade, in hindsight, failed.
- Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu for Christian Vazquez last deadline: Too early to tell, but it appears neither player will make the 26-man roster on Opening Day. I think Valdez can hit, but not field - unless you make him a DH, I'm not sure he can play a lot, and they signed Turner for that role.

Anyway, with the exception of the Whitlock Rule V acquisition, none of the prospects Bloom has acquired have helped fill the prospect gap, and help the big league team.

This brings us to Yoshida. He's obviously not like these other players - but he also is getting paid like a legit big leaguer. So much of the Red Sox ability to survive the next couple of years with the fans - and Bloom's likelihood of saving his job - depends on a handful of guys "filling in the gaps" (Casas, Yoshida, Bello, and Mata) this year.

If Yoshida is as good as it appears thus far, it will buy Bloom some goodwill and time. A middle of the lineup that includes Devers, Yoshida, and Casas all hitting can be a good offense, in part because it allows other players to fit into complimentary roles. I sound down on Verdugo all the time on this site, not because I think he sucks, but because he is often asked to be a player that he simply has not been since 2020. If Verdugo is your #3 or #4 hitter, you don't have enough hitters. If Yoshida can rake, it will make everybody else a little bit better, too.

Jarren Duran played for Mexico and William Cuevas played for Colombia.

Several former Sox played as well: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Martin Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jonathan Arauz, Roenis Elias, Yoenis Cespedes, Yoan Moncada, Ryan Lavarnway, Daniel Bard, Adam Ottavino, Kyle Schwarber, Tzu-Wei Lin.

Jarren Duran played for Mexico and William Cuevas played for Colombia.

Several former Sox played as well: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Martin Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jonathan Arauz, Roenis Elias, Yoenis Cespedes, Yoan Moncada, Ryan Lavarnway, Daniel Bard, Adam Ottavino, Kyle Schwarber, Tzu-Wei Lin.

Thanks. I really thought Mookie was going to do something amazing in the 9th.

I didn't recognize the name William Cuevas in your post. It looks like he has been pitching in Korea for a few years, and then a little in Mexico last year. He probably has had an interesting life, moving from Venezuela to Massachusetts (and elsewhere in the US), and then to Korea. I hope he has a World Series ring locked away somewhere.

Verdugo reminds me a lot of Markakis. Good BA/OBP, middling power, perennial ~2 WAR player.

Thanks for mentioning the SoxProspects podcast episode, I'm going to give it a listen. From your description, I think I'll disagree with some of their conclusions but we'll see. :)

- Downs and Wong as part of the Betts trade: That clearly failed. Downs' failure was a focus of the podcast, because it was a rare chance to grab a high-level impact prospect in a trade, and it flopped.
- Seabold as part of the Workman trade with the Phillies: Seabold has been DFA'ed. It failed.

These two are pretty tough to grade as failures.

--Downs definitely didn't work out. But he was part of a much larger trade where the Sox were unloading 3 years/$48 mil (didn't know he would sit out at the time) they were paying David Price, who was an okay reliever after that. They also got 5 years of Verdugo who, although he's no star, has been an averagish OF. And then there's Wong, who's part of our catching tandem this year. Yes, I would have liked a Lindor-esque package but it seems like they did fine here.

--The Seabold trade being a failure is even harder for me to swallow. They got him for a month of Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. Did anyone think those two guys would bring back any kind of impact player? Oh, and by the way, they also got Pivetta, who's been their #3 starter the past 2+ years.

If the point of trading for prospects is to bring in good cost-controlled players who can contribute in the Majors, these were both successes. Verdugo and Pivetta weren't technically prospects but they fit the bill in ever other way.


Edit to Add: I'm not trying to relitigate the Mookie trade. Just pointing out that it's hard to look at Downs in isolation.

If the point of trading for prospects is to bring in good cost-controlled players who can contribute in the Majors, these were both successes. Verdugo and Pivetta weren't technically prospects but they fit the bill in ever other way.

This. If you ignore the primary player received in a trade, the trades look like a bust.

I think it's still worth criticizing the front office for their minor-league return on trades. I mean, the gap in talent in the minors is because they haven't brought in talent, or haven't developed the talent. It's not because they traded it all away, because Bloom hasn't traded many prospects and every good prospect Dombrowski traded should be in the majors by now. It's not because they had a ton of talent and promoted them all. Even if the individual trades can't be seen as failures because of their major-league components, the collective return to the minors has been underwhelming.

Yu Chang also played for Taiwan, although he has apparently had visa issues getting back to Red Sox camp.

I think it's still worth criticizing the front office for their minor-league return on trades.

Yes, they've certainly had some whiffs that are worth mentioning, the Bradley deal being the top of that list.

CFBPS for Yoshida has arrived:

.332/.456/.577, 53 2B, 31 HR, 122 RBI, 112 Runs, avg defense, 6.6 WAR. Top comp: Lance Berkman.

On the Betts trade: You see a lot more of this in the NBA and NFL, where stars or top picks are traded for many draft picks. In all these cases, if you are not getting back multiple useful pieces in exchange for a superstar, then the trade failed - even if it seemed like a reasonable trade at the time.

In the case of Betts, they basically got four assets back for arguably the best player in the game:
- An outfielder entering his age 24 season who had shown the ability to be an above-average hitter at age 23, and could reasonably be projected to become an even better player in the coming years. (Verdugo)
- A second baseman who was one of the highest-rated prospects in a loaded minor-league system, rated as the #44 prospects entering 2020 by MLB, and the #86 prospects by Baseball America. He had finished his age 20 season showing he could hit with power, a decent average, pretty strong walk rates, and good defense. That's a good prospect. (Downs)
- A catcher who, at age 23 in AA, showed some power, but poor batting eye. Was never on any top-100 prospect lists (Wong)
- A lot of cash, to pay for half of David Price's salary for the remainder of his contract.

So how has it turned out? I'd have to say...pretty terribly. It has set the franchise back because they got so little out of it:
- Verdugo looked like one of the best young players in baseball in the COVID-shortened 2020 season - he finished 12th in the MVP voting as a 24-year old. But since then, he has regressed, and appears to have now stabilized as a slightly-above-average hitter, with a little bit of power, average on-base skills, and below-average defense and speed. He's not even a bargain anymore. If he was the 2nd or 3rd-best piece of the trade, it'd be fine, but...
- Downs was a complete disaster. I think when the team put him in AAA to start 2021, after not playing at all in 2020, it really hurt his development. He has struggled to hit .200 in the last two years, and was DFA'ed. I'm not saying Bloom should have known he would be such a flame out as a prospect - but c'mon, guys: Downs was supposed to be a key part of the trade, and he was a complete failure.
- Wong turns 27 in May. He is 13-for-61 in his big-league career. The team is hoping he might make the team as the backup. Expectations for him were never as high as they were for Downs, but (again) c'mon, guys: If you had told Bloom that entering 2023 the best-case scenario for Wong was that he'd beat a NRI for the backup C spot, he'd have been disappointed.
- The cash was the cash. That obviously "worked out", and was probably the key to the deal. If the Dodgers don't pay half his salary, the prospect haul would have been better.

So the Red Sox got, up to this point, Coco Crisp minus the speed and defense; a no-hit backup catcher that needed three more years in the minors; and a bag of cash, for Mookie Betts. That's literally all they got. For an organization that was trying to get a head start on rebuilding a depleted minor-league system, that's an epic fail. (For example, if Downs works out, they don't sign Story, and can instead offer Bogaerts a chunk of the Story money before the 2022 season.)

Verdugo looked like one of the best young players in baseball in the COVID-shortened 2020 season - he finished 12th in the MVP voting as a 24-year old.

This still counts, though! The one thing of value that they lost in that trade was a year of Betts. Betts made $27 mil and had a ~9.7 WAR year. In return, they got Verdugo, who made the minimum and had a ~5.7 WAR year. Then after the year was over they still had four more years of Verdugo on the cheap. One of those years was just okay, the second was poor, and there are two more left. ZIPS projects him for 3.1 and 2.7 WAR in those years. It all adds up to:

Red Sox get:
--Under the tax
--Verdugo: 5 years, ~14.8 WAR, ~$20 mil
--Downs: no value
--Wong: let's say no value
Total: 14.8 WAR for $20 mil

Red Sox give up:
--Mookie, 1 year, ~9.7 WAR, $27 mil
--Price, 3 years, ~2.4 WAR, $48 mil
Total: 12.1 WAR for $75 mil

Getting to a point where you're trading Betts is awful. Once you do, this deal is fine. When you trade a star player for prospects, you don't expect to get someone as good back. You get a couple of players and hope that, in some combination, they contribute to your team and save you money that you can spend elsewhere. That's what they got.

In this case, you can also argue a bit about whether they should have included Price, but doing so got them the much maligned payroll flexibility, which allowed them to build the 2021 playoff team.

(*Note: The numbers for 2020 are adjusted to a full season because at the time of the trade, there was no way to anticipate the shortened year. This also comes into play for Price, whose sitting out 2020 was not something that could have been anticipated. I gave him 1.1 WAR for 2020, the average of his 2019 and 2021 WAR.)

Most importantly, this whole discussion will be moot when Verdugo and Wong match their CFBPS projections:

Verdugo: .331/.388/.501, 61 2B, 122 runs, no broken toes, batting title, 6.0 WAR
Wong: .258/.304/.435, 383 PA, 1.9 WAR*




*Also his ZIPS projection.

Most importantly, this whole discussion will be moot when Verdugo and Wong match their CFBPS projections:

LOL!

*Also his ZIPS projection.

LOLouder!

In this case, you can also argue a bit about whether they should have included Price, but doing so got them the much maligned payroll flexibility, which allowed them to build the 2021 playoff team.

Who did they acquire prior to 2021 that would have been blocked by Price's $16M? Ottavino maybe? The reason they made the playoffs is because the roster other than Chris Sale and 2B was insanely durable and pretty much all played at or above expectations.

The Benintendi trade looks much worse than the Mookie trade. He was no superstar but he certainly had value.

From Baseball Reference:

February 10, 2021: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Boston Red Sox with cash to the Kansas City Royals. The New York Mets sent a player to be named later and Josh Winckowski to the Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals sent players to be named later and Franchy Cordero to the Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals sent Khalil Lee to the New York Mets. The Kansas City Royals sent Luis De La Rosa (minors) (June 4, 2021) and Grant Gambrell (minors) (June 4, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade. The New York Mets sent Freddy Valdez (minors) (June 4, 2021) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.

That's a lot of stuff happening. :) Their apparent target was Winckowski, who's been kind of okay, I guess? De La Rosa (who I hear is lanky) and Gambrell are still in the system, so that's something. Cordero was well liked and provided a lot of fun for the Worcester fans. Sure seems like they could have come out of this with one top-100-ish prospect, as they noted on the podcast.

Who did they acquire prior to 2021 that would have been blocked by Price's $16M? Ottavino maybe? The reason they made the playoffs is because the roster other than Chris Sale and 2B was insanely durable and pretty much all played at or above expectations.

The team got under the luxury tax limit in 2020 because of the trade. In 2021, they were able to spend just over the tax limit. It's hard to parse out Price's $16M in 2021 because a) who knows what they would have done if he was still on the books, b) even if we assume they used his $16M, it's hard to say exactly who it went to. They signed or acquired Hernandez, Ottavino, Schwarber, Renfroe, and Perez, all of who made significant money.

With the slight benefit of hindsight, I think the Sox can be questioned for not being able to get one of the Dodgers' catching prospects. LA had Will Smith in the Majors with Ruiz and Cartaya behind him. The Sox had very little in the way of catching in their system. It seems like a package centered on one of Ruiz or Cartaya should have been doable.

In 2021, they were able to spend just over the tax limit.

The Sox did not go over the limit in either 2020 or 2021.

They signed or acquired Hernandez, Ottavino, Schwarber, Renfroe, and Perez, all of who made significant money.

Ottavino and Perez combined for $14M AAV in 2021. Don't acquire them (because the Sox still have David Price) and the team is pretty much the same.

The Sox did not go over the limit in either 2020 or 2021.

You're right, I don't know what I was thinking. But the point still stands--they spent money in 2021 and it's hard to say exactly how they would have spent differently if they still had Price's contract on the books.

Ottavino and Perez combined for $14M AAV in 2021. Don't acquire them (because the Sox still have David Price) and the team is pretty much the same.

Yes, that's a good scenario, but that's with hindsight. They also might have not signed Hernandez and/or Renfroe. Maybe they think that with Price in the mix, they can afford to trade Eovaldi.

Yes, that's a good scenario, but that's with hindsight. They also might have not signed Hernandez and/or Renfroe. Maybe they think that with Price in the mix, they can afford to trade Eovaldi.

.
Definitely agree, who knows the direction they do go with Price still on the team. I would just strongly disagree that making the playoffs in 2021 was *because* of the Betts trade as you suggested.

I don't want to make it sound like the Betts trade propelled them to the playoffs. Just saying that when we look at the money they saved/got back, we should consider how it was used.

we should consider how it was used.

Pretty ineffectively to the long term benefit of the team considering the only two real acquisitions of any consequence have been Story and Yoshida, meanwhile they just lost their best player to FA.

Pretty ineffectively to the long term benefit of the team considering the only two real acquisitions of any consequence have been Story and Yoshida, meanwhile they just lost their best player to FA.

Yeah, that stuff definitely goes in the ol' negative column for me. (I like Story and Yoshida, just wanted more.)

.332/.456/.577, 53 2B, 31 HR, 122 RBI, 112 Runs, avg defense, 6.6 WAR. Top comp: Lance Berkman.

Far be it for me to question the CFBPS, but surely those stats would result in more than 6.6 WAR?

In 2021, Soto was .313/.465/.534 and +4 in LF, playing in the less-friendly Nationals Park. That netted him 7.1 WAR. DO NOT QUESTION CFBPS!

With the slight benefit of hindsight, I think the Sox can be questioned for not being able to get one of the Dodgers' catching prospects.

They did get one of the Dodgers' catching prospects. Connor Wong. He's a lesser tier of prospect, but still a pretty good one. 3rd round pick, just put up a 997 OPS in 2 months of AA, and since then has made the majors and not embarrassed himself.

They did get one of the Dodgers' catching prospects. Connor Wong. He's a lesser tier of prospect, but still a pretty good one. 3rd round pick, just put up a 997 OPS in 2 months of AA, and since then has made the majors and not embarrassed himself.

I will be surprised if Wong provides more value to the Sox than Blake Swihart.

I like Wong and he's done better than I thought he would. But he wasn't/isn't Ruiz or Cartaya.

Pretty ineffectively to the long term benefit of the team considering the only two real acquisitions of any consequence have been Story and Yoshida, meanwhile they just lost their best player to FA.

If we're talking about how they're spending the money, then I think the Devers extension counts.

Interesting article on the Red Sox system from FG:

Prospect Report: Red Sox 2023 Imminent Big Leaguers

Fun read and provides insight into their thoughts on Yoshida: "Will some version of this hold up against MLB pitching? When you isolate Yoshida’s performance against hard fastballs, you start to get a better idea of how things might look over here. Versus fastballs 93 mph and above (202 pitches), he hit .273/.333/.455; against 94 mph and up (153 pitches), he hit .279/.340/.395; and against 95 mph (88 pitches) and above, his line was .296/.345/.370 (all of this is from Synergy Sports)....The contact/OBP combo should enable him to produce in the 1.5–2 WAR range, similar to the last couple seasons of Andrew Benintendi or a more patient Alex Verdugo. It’s possible that the amount and quality of contact Yoshida makes gives him a higher power ceiling than I anticipate."

Downs was a complete disaster.

Can’t say he’s done any better for the Nationals, who picked him up on waivers. Downs got a lot of plate appearances early in the exhibition season, only ~ 5 Nationals had more about a week ago when I was mentally composing a post about his lack of success. Then he hit a triple, even though he stumbled a bit between 2nd & 3rd, so I decided to give him a bit more time before writing him off. But he just doesn’t make enough contact, and is hitting .176/.300/.235 for the Spring. Maybe a minor league hitting coach can straighten him out, but I don’t see him making the Nationals roster, which is quite thin.

The notion of Yoshida's contact ability - and his ability to turn contact into hits - was what made me think I'm going to like this guy. He's certainly not going to be Ichiro in that regard, and I hesitated even saying that because there's probably some lunkhead out there reading this who's gonna say "LOLZ HE'S COMPARING YOSHIDA TO ICHIRO" as though I'm somehow suggesting the opposite of what I'm saying. But if he can still make contact and get on base against high velocity then he sounds like his game will translate to MLB well enough.

Those velocity numbers are hard to interpret. How are they calculated? How do you calculate obp on a pitch? What does a swing and miss count as, etc. Also what are other players splits? And so on.

In the tournament Yoshida also has been hit by pitch 4 times. He was tied for 4th in the Pacific League in Japan last year, so I’m assuming this is part of his skillset rather than just a quality of competition thing.

He already leads MLB with 1 HBP. Let's build narratives!

This guy has some pop.

He did then he didn't. And then he did.

He did then he didn't. And then he did.

I mean, he does, and like every other hitter with pop, if he gets a pitch he's looking for he can hit it hard. I'm sold on him. He's a good contact hitter and has a good eye. He'll walk plenty, and he'll probably hit at least 15 HRs a year. Maybe 20, and that's more than I thought he'd have, when I first saw him in ST.

Having watched Yoshida a good bit now, it's easy to see where the scouting concerns came from. He hits the ball on the ground a lot. A LOT. He's fourth among qualified batters with a 59.7% GB%. He doesn't usually hit the ball very hard either. His average exit velocity is 87.4 mph, which is in the 30th percentile. And yet, despite this, he has still somehow put up a .276/.371/.461/130 wRC+ line. And it appears to be somewhat sustainable. How? He looks like the "professional hitter" that we heard about. His 11.2% K rate, and 1.0 K/BB both rank 12th in the Majors. He seems to be adept at fighting off tough pitches and hitting the ball through and just over the infield. Also, his poor velo numbers may still be being dragged down by his early struggles/adjustments.

On the negative side, both Reference and Fangraphs have him at only 0.3 WAR through 20 games. Why? Both agree that he's a lousy baserunner. Despite being 2-2 in steals, he's at -1 in BBRef and -1.4 at FG. FG thinks he's okay in the field at -0.1 R, but Reference says he's already cost the team 3 runs with his glove. Watching him, I haven't seen anything to indicate that he's especially bad at either of these things, but we'll see how the numbers go as the years go on.

I hate hate hate the instinct to compare him to Matsui but man I can't help it. Matsui came over and hit gobs of grounders (1.31 GB/FB in 2003) then became more of a fly ball hitter but was still more GB happy than you'd expect from a guy who had power. Even Shohei hits ground balls at an above average rate. I suspect there is an emphasis on that in Japan and that launch angle isn't the focus. Am I wrong in thinking all the fields there are turf? Those grounders skip through the infield a bit more I suspect.

My understanding is that the posting fee the Red Sox had to pay to get the right to negotiate with Yoshida does not count against any of the luxury tax-related thresholds, correct?

Assuming this is accurate, then I'm pretty happy with the deal from the Red Sox team building perspective, because they need to accelerate their player development program to get out of the rut of just signing short-term deals with aging or oft-injured veterans.

One of the only ways to do that is when quality young veterans from Japan become available. If it was my money, I'd flinch at how much Yoshida is going to cost ownership - when you count the posting fee. But it's a blind spot in the rules that Boston might as well exploit.

He'll be fine - I have to think the transition most Japanese players face is even greater than that of many Latin American players, in the sense that by the time Latin Americans players reach the majors, they have had years of playing in the States. Japanese players typically get thrown right into the fire (they are also typically well into their 20s, to be fair), so I'd expect the first few months to be choppy. But -for now- Yoshida feels like one of the least of our challenges.

My understanding is that the posting fee the Red Sox had to pay to get the right to negotiate with Yoshida does not count against any of the luxury tax-related thresholds, correct?

Correct.

I like that they are using loophole to be able to spend on players in a way that doesn't impact the cap. I also like this signing specifically because I like Yoshida's profile. What I don't like: 1. if this is part of a larger plan to just never sign top players long term and instead do deals like this. 2. If this deal was done as a way to placate or distract fans when losing Bogaerts, which in terms of timing, seems possible.

Am I wrong in thinking all the fields there are turf? Those grounders skip through the infield a bit more I suspect.

Nine of the 12 fields used as primary home fields in NPB during Yoshida's time there were turf (The Fighters moved into a new grass stadium this season, but before that played on a turf field.) Yoshida's former home field, the Kyocera Dome Osaka, is turf.

Yoshida's last year in Japan vs this season in MLB:

NPB 2022: 508 PA, 80 BB, 41 K, .335/.447/.561
MLB 2023: 129 PA, 13 BB, 11 K, .321/.403/.536

K rate, batting average, and power have held up amazingly well. Walk rate is the biggest difference.

There have been a couple of recent stories on Yoshida on Fangraphs and MLB.com, which were both fun and interesting. I didn't love how they selected the comps in the Fangraphs articles but interesting take nonetheless.