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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Tuesday, March 21, 2023Yoshida In The SpotlightMasataka Yoshida has had a pretty damn good WBC, with a tournament record 13 RBI before tonight’s final vs. USA, fueled by a 1413 OPS. That’s around the same level as the headline-grabbing Trea Turner (1429) and Shohei Ohtani (1421). He also had an outfield assist in last night’s game, cutting a runner down at home, although that was more a byproduct of an aggressive but bad baserunning decision. I think I’m going to like this guy. In the tournament Yoshida also has been hit by pitch 4 times. He was tied for 4th in the Pacific League in Japan last year, so I’m assuming this is part of his skillset rather than just a quality of competition thing. Too, he led the JPL in OPS each of the last 2 years. Mostly I’ve been pleased to see his overall bat skill. He’s hitting to all fields, with decent power. Maybe not 70 power as alluded to by his hitting coach, but decent nonetheless. He has spoken of being nervous in the WBC, particularly in the game against Mexico, but it doesn’t appear to have hurt his results. In that game he had a single to left, a single to center, a fielder’s choice grounder, a 3-run HR to RF (high off the foul pole but projected distance of 366 feet), and a walk, the last two PAs coming in pressure situations with Japan trailing late. (The pinch-runner who took his place after the BB was in fact the winning run.) His other HR - in the quarterfinal against Italy - was a solid blast. His only other extra-base hit, a double to left against the Czech Republic in the preliminary round, was more of what I think is a reasonable expectation given what we’ve heard: he went with the pitch and sent it down the line to where the field was wide open. I think you’re going to like this guy, too. |
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1. DarrenYou didn't mention the 3 BB and 0 K in this massive sample size against this world class competition.
Worse yet, it is not like there are a ton of low-level prospects with lots of upside exciting scouts - it is a really weak system beyond those five guys, unless Nick Yorke gets it back together.
Their take was that Chaim Bloom, seeing the weakness of the system, and knowing how long it takes to draft and sign impact prospects and then develop them, tried to accelerate the process with a ton of trades explicitly designed to get guys in AA and AAA who had a chance of providing homegrown help quickly:
- Downs and Wong as part of the Betts trade: That clearly failed. Downs' failure was a focus of the podcast, because it was a rare chance to grab a high-level impact prospect in a trade, and it flopped.
- Binelas and Hamilton in the JBJ-for-Renfroe trade: Neither analyst had Hamilton in their top 30 prospects; Binelas is going nowhere fast. This trade appears unsuccessful.
- Seabold as part of the Workman trade with the Phillies: Seabold has been DFA'ed. It failed.
- Roberto Hernandez for Jeffrey Springs with Tampa: Hernandez is struggling in AAA, while Springs just signed a pretty lucrative extension with Tampa. This trade, in hindsight, failed.
- Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu for Christian Vazquez last deadline: Too early to tell, but it appears neither player will make the 26-man roster on Opening Day. I think Valdez can hit, but not field - unless you make him a DH, I'm not sure he can play a lot, and they signed Turner for that role.
Anyway, with the exception of the Whitlock Rule V acquisition, none of the prospects Bloom has acquired have helped fill the prospect gap, and help the big league team.
This brings us to Yoshida. He's obviously not like these other players - but he also is getting paid like a legit big leaguer. So much of the Red Sox ability to survive the next couple of years with the fans - and Bloom's likelihood of saving his job - depends on a handful of guys "filling in the gaps" (Casas, Yoshida, Bello, and Mata) this year.
If Yoshida is as good as it appears thus far, it will buy Bloom some goodwill and time. A middle of the lineup that includes Devers, Yoshida, and Casas all hitting can be a good offense, in part because it allows other players to fit into complimentary roles. I sound down on Verdugo all the time on this site, not because I think he sucks, but because he is often asked to be a player that he simply has not been since 2020. If Verdugo is your #3 or #4 hitter, you don't have enough hitters. If Yoshida can rake, it will make everybody else a little bit better, too.
Several former Sox played as well: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Martin Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jonathan Arauz, Roenis Elias, Yoenis Cespedes, Yoan Moncada, Ryan Lavarnway, Daniel Bard, Adam Ottavino, Kyle Schwarber, Tzu-Wei Lin.
I didn't recognize the name William Cuevas in your post. It looks like he has been pitching in Korea for a few years, and then a little in Mexico last year. He probably has had an interesting life, moving from Venezuela to Massachusetts (and elsewhere in the US), and then to Korea. I hope he has a World Series ring locked away somewhere.
These two are pretty tough to grade as failures.
--Downs definitely didn't work out. But he was part of a much larger trade where the Sox were unloading 3 years/$48 mil (didn't know he would sit out at the time) they were paying David Price, who was an okay reliever after that. They also got 5 years of Verdugo who, although he's no star, has been an averagish OF. And then there's Wong, who's part of our catching tandem this year. Yes, I would have liked a Lindor-esque package but it seems like they did fine here.
--The Seabold trade being a failure is even harder for me to swallow. They got him for a month of Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. Did anyone think those two guys would bring back any kind of impact player? Oh, and by the way, they also got Pivetta, who's been their #3 starter the past 2+ years.
If the point of trading for prospects is to bring in good cost-controlled players who can contribute in the Majors, these were both successes. Verdugo and Pivetta weren't technically prospects but they fit the bill in ever other way.
Edit to Add: I'm not trying to relitigate the Mookie trade. Just pointing out that it's hard to look at Downs in isolation.
I think it's still worth criticizing the front office for their minor-league return on trades. I mean, the gap in talent in the minors is because they haven't brought in talent, or haven't developed the talent. It's not because they traded it all away, because Bloom hasn't traded many prospects and every good prospect Dombrowski traded should be in the majors by now. It's not because they had a ton of talent and promoted them all. Even if the individual trades can't be seen as failures because of their major-league components, the collective return to the minors has been underwhelming.
Yes, they've certainly had some whiffs that are worth mentioning, the Bradley deal being the top of that list.
.332/.456/.577, 53 2B, 31 HR, 122 RBI, 112 Runs, avg defense, 6.6 WAR. Top comp: Lance Berkman.
In the case of Betts, they basically got four assets back for arguably the best player in the game:
- An outfielder entering his age 24 season who had shown the ability to be an above-average hitter at age 23, and could reasonably be projected to become an even better player in the coming years. (Verdugo)
- A second baseman who was one of the highest-rated prospects in a loaded minor-league system, rated as the #44 prospects entering 2020 by MLB, and the #86 prospects by Baseball America. He had finished his age 20 season showing he could hit with power, a decent average, pretty strong walk rates, and good defense. That's a good prospect. (Downs)
- A catcher who, at age 23 in AA, showed some power, but poor batting eye. Was never on any top-100 prospect lists (Wong)
- A lot of cash, to pay for half of David Price's salary for the remainder of his contract.
So how has it turned out? I'd have to say...pretty terribly. It has set the franchise back because they got so little out of it:
- Verdugo looked like one of the best young players in baseball in the COVID-shortened 2020 season - he finished 12th in the MVP voting as a 24-year old. But since then, he has regressed, and appears to have now stabilized as a slightly-above-average hitter, with a little bit of power, average on-base skills, and below-average defense and speed. He's not even a bargain anymore. If he was the 2nd or 3rd-best piece of the trade, it'd be fine, but...
- Downs was a complete disaster. I think when the team put him in AAA to start 2021, after not playing at all in 2020, it really hurt his development. He has struggled to hit .200 in the last two years, and was DFA'ed. I'm not saying Bloom should have known he would be such a flame out as a prospect - but c'mon, guys: Downs was supposed to be a key part of the trade, and he was a complete failure.
- Wong turns 27 in May. He is 13-for-61 in his big-league career. The team is hoping he might make the team as the backup. Expectations for him were never as high as they were for Downs, but (again) c'mon, guys: If you had told Bloom that entering 2023 the best-case scenario for Wong was that he'd beat a NRI for the backup C spot, he'd have been disappointed.
- The cash was the cash. That obviously "worked out", and was probably the key to the deal. If the Dodgers don't pay half his salary, the prospect haul would have been better.
So the Red Sox got, up to this point, Coco Crisp minus the speed and defense; a no-hit backup catcher that needed three more years in the minors; and a bag of cash, for Mookie Betts. That's literally all they got. For an organization that was trying to get a head start on rebuilding a depleted minor-league system, that's an epic fail. (For example, if Downs works out, they don't sign Story, and can instead offer Bogaerts a chunk of the Story money before the 2022 season.)
This still counts, though! The one thing of value that they lost in that trade was a year of Betts. Betts made $27 mil and had a ~9.7 WAR year. In return, they got Verdugo, who made the minimum and had a ~5.7 WAR year. Then after the year was over they still had four more years of Verdugo on the cheap. One of those years was just okay, the second was poor, and there are two more left. ZIPS projects him for 3.1 and 2.7 WAR in those years. It all adds up to:
Red Sox get:
--Under the tax
--Verdugo: 5 years, ~14.8 WAR, ~$20 mil
--Downs: no value
--Wong: let's say no value
Total: 14.8 WAR for $20 mil
Red Sox give up:
--Mookie, 1 year, ~9.7 WAR, $27 mil
--Price, 3 years, ~2.4 WAR, $48 mil
Total: 12.1 WAR for $75 mil
Getting to a point where you're trading Betts is awful. Once you do, this deal is fine. When you trade a star player for prospects, you don't expect to get someone as good back. You get a couple of players and hope that, in some combination, they contribute to your team and save you money that you can spend elsewhere. That's what they got.
In this case, you can also argue a bit about whether they should have included Price, but doing so got them the much maligned payroll flexibility, which allowed them to build the 2021 playoff team.
(*Note: The numbers for 2020 are adjusted to a full season because at the time of the trade, there was no way to anticipate the shortened year. This also comes into play for Price, whose sitting out 2020 was not something that could have been anticipated. I gave him 1.1 WAR for 2020, the average of his 2019 and 2021 WAR.)
Verdugo: .331/.388/.501, 61 2B, 122 runs, no broken toes, batting title, 6.0 WAR
Wong: .258/.304/.435, 383 PA, 1.9 WAR*
*Also his ZIPS projection.
LOL!
LOLouder!
Who did they acquire prior to 2021 that would have been blocked by Price's $16M? Ottavino maybe? The reason they made the playoffs is because the roster other than Chris Sale and 2B was insanely durable and pretty much all played at or above expectations.
From Baseball Reference:
That's a lot of stuff happening. :) Their apparent target was Winckowski, who's been kind of okay, I guess? De La Rosa (who I hear is lanky) and Gambrell are still in the system, so that's something. Cordero was well liked and provided a lot of fun for the Worcester fans. Sure seems like they could have come out of this with one top-100-ish prospect, as they noted on the podcast.
The team got under the luxury tax limit in 2020 because of the trade. In 2021, they were able to spend just over the tax limit. It's hard to parse out Price's $16M in 2021 because a) who knows what they would have done if he was still on the books, b) even if we assume they used his $16M, it's hard to say exactly who it went to. They signed or acquired Hernandez, Ottavino, Schwarber, Renfroe, and Perez, all of who made significant money.
The Sox did not go over the limit in either 2020 or 2021.
Ottavino and Perez combined for $14M AAV in 2021. Don't acquire them (because the Sox still have David Price) and the team is pretty much the same.
You're right, I don't know what I was thinking. But the point still stands--they spent money in 2021 and it's hard to say exactly how they would have spent differently if they still had Price's contract on the books.
Yes, that's a good scenario, but that's with hindsight. They also might have not signed Hernandez and/or Renfroe. Maybe they think that with Price in the mix, they can afford to trade Eovaldi.
.
Definitely agree, who knows the direction they do go with Price still on the team. I would just strongly disagree that making the playoffs in 2021 was *because* of the Betts trade as you suggested.
Pretty ineffectively to the long term benefit of the team considering the only two real acquisitions of any consequence have been Story and Yoshida, meanwhile they just lost their best player to FA.
Yeah, that stuff definitely goes in the ol' negative column for me. (I like Story and Yoshida, just wanted more.)
Far be it for me to question the CFBPS, but surely those stats would result in more than 6.6 WAR?
They did get one of the Dodgers' catching prospects. Connor Wong. He's a lesser tier of prospect, but still a pretty good one. 3rd round pick, just put up a 997 OPS in 2 months of AA, and since then has made the majors and not embarrassed himself.
I will be surprised if Wong provides more value to the Sox than Blake Swihart.
Prospect Report: Red Sox 2023 Imminent Big Leaguers
Fun read and provides insight into their thoughts on Yoshida: "Will some version of this hold up against MLB pitching? When you isolate Yoshida’s performance against hard fastballs, you start to get a better idea of how things might look over here. Versus fastballs 93 mph and above (202 pitches), he hit .273/.333/.455; against 94 mph and up (153 pitches), he hit .279/.340/.395; and against 95 mph (88 pitches) and above, his line was .296/.345/.370 (all of this is from Synergy Sports)....The contact/OBP combo should enable him to produce in the 1.5–2 WAR range, similar to the last couple seasons of Andrew Benintendi or a more patient Alex Verdugo. It’s possible that the amount and quality of contact Yoshida makes gives him a higher power ceiling than I anticipate."
I mean, he does, and like every other hitter with pop, if he gets a pitch he's looking for he can hit it hard. I'm sold on him. He's a good contact hitter and has a good eye. He'll walk plenty, and he'll probably hit at least 15 HRs a year. Maybe 20, and that's more than I thought he'd have, when I first saw him in ST.
On the negative side, both Reference and Fangraphs have him at only 0.3 WAR through 20 games. Why? Both agree that he's a lousy baserunner. Despite being 2-2 in steals, he's at -1 in BBRef and -1.4 at FG. FG thinks he's okay in the field at -0.1 R, but Reference says he's already cost the team 3 runs with his glove. Watching him, I haven't seen anything to indicate that he's especially bad at either of these things, but we'll see how the numbers go as the years go on.
Assuming this is accurate, then I'm pretty happy with the deal from the Red Sox team building perspective, because they need to accelerate their player development program to get out of the rut of just signing short-term deals with aging or oft-injured veterans.
One of the only ways to do that is when quality young veterans from Japan become available. If it was my money, I'd flinch at how much Yoshida is going to cost ownership - when you count the posting fee. But it's a blind spot in the rules that Boston might as well exploit.
He'll be fine - I have to think the transition most Japanese players face is even greater than that of many Latin American players, in the sense that by the time Latin Americans players reach the majors, they have had years of playing in the States. Japanese players typically get thrown right into the fire (they are also typically well into their 20s, to be fair), so I'd expect the first few months to be choppy. But -for now- Yoshida feels like one of the least of our challenges.
Correct.
I like that they are using loophole to be able to spend on players in a way that doesn't impact the cap. I also like this signing specifically because I like Yoshida's profile. What I don't like: 1. if this is part of a larger plan to just never sign top players long term and instead do deals like this. 2. If this deal was done as a way to placate or distract fans when losing Bogaerts, which in terms of timing, seems possible.
Nine of the 12 fields used as primary home fields in NPB during Yoshida's time there were turf (The Fighters moved into a new grass stadium this season, but before that played on a turf field.) Yoshida's former home field, the Kyocera Dome Osaka, is turf.
NPB 2022: 508 PA, 80 BB, 41 K, .335/.447/.561
MLB 2023: 129 PA, 13 BB, 11 K, .321/.403/.536
K rate, batting average, and power have held up amazingly well. Walk rate is the biggest difference.
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