ZiPping Along

With Christmas just a few days away (be safe Therapudians!) we got a little baseball gift as FanGraphs released their ZiPS projections for the 2021 Red Sox.  Dan always gives some good stuff here (I know he pops in on BTF and if he has issues with me using ZiPS for a post let me know and I’ll remove it) and I thought in the absence of any meaningful news I would poke around a bit.

INFIELD:  The infield is what it is.  Xander Bogaerts (of whom Dan asks “is he the most underrated shortstop in baseball”) projects as a 4 win player and Rafael Devers projects to have a pretty strong bounce back.  Bobby Dalbec is listed as the first baseman along with Tristan Casas though Dan gets off a great line here as well (“I fully expect Mitch Moreland to show up in the spring, and for the Red Sox to assume that someone in the front office must have signed him for a year at $4 million or something”).  Dalbec projects as a 1 WAR player and that’s not unreasonable to me.  I can see him being a 4 or 5 win player and I can see him being a complete bust who spends more time in Worcester than Boston.  Second base is pretty up in the air but the first comp for Jeter Downs (Sean Rodriguez) doesn’t upset me at all.  The Sox should be looking to improve at second base as Downs is likely not ready to go yet but a Sean Rodriguez type player there would be OK in my book.

OUTFIELD: The big question in the outfield is Andrew Benintendi.  It’s pretty clear that ZiPS isn’t too bothered by 14 bad games during a pandemic and has Benny going back to his 2019 form for better or for worse.  For the Sox to move back into contention Benintendi at least splitting the difference between 2018 and 2019 would be a big boost.  JD Martinez and Hunter Renfroe project about where you would expect them.  JD perhaps a bit below but not enough to quibble.  The guy whose forecast just seems off to me is Alex Verdugo.  Verdugo was a 2.2 WAR player in a 60 game season and the year before in just over 100 games was 3.2 WAR but for some reason the numbers crunch out to a 2.2 WAR projection with the unimpressive number one comparable of Ryan Sweeney.  Numbers is what numbers is but that one sounds questionable to me.  ZiPS always uses the current team for a player so Jackie Bradley Jr., who seems more and more likely to return each day, is listed with the Sox Like with Benintendi ZiPS seems to not be overreacting to the shortened season for JBJ and while his .739 OPS would be his best full season since 2016 it’s not by a lot.  Frankly, this is a case where I think the ones and zeroes are probably getting it right.  Jarren Duran (proj. .268/.313/.368) looks like a guy who would benefit from a bit more seasoning in AAA.  Yup, that tracks.

CATCHER: Not a ton going on here.  Christian Vazquez (2.3 projected) and Kevin Plawecki (1.0) are your catchers.  They are both good enough in their roles.  If I was going to spring training this year Deivy Grullon would be on my list to check out and I love his top comp of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Salty did a job for a couple years for the Sox and if Grullon can do that score one for Chaim Bloom.

PITCHERS: Yeah, it’s as grim as you’d expect.  I have not touched on the pitching much this off-season because until something happens there is not much to say.  I think we all know;

1. The Red Sox pitching is abysmal
2. Almost certain Chaim Bloom will address it this winter at some point
3. If he does not there is no reason to stress the 2021 season and we should just watch player development.

With that in mind Eduardo Rodriguez projects well.  I don’t know, and frankly I don’t think ANYONE knows, how someone coming off a missed season due to COVID is going to rebound.  The Sox need EdRod to return to form, it is just that simple.  Chris Sale (the highest projected WAR among the pitching staff) will be back mid-seasonish and even assuming he doesn’t return as CHRIS SALE but comes back as something similar to what the Yankees got from C.C. Sabathia post-Tommy John I think that would be perfectly fine for the Sox needs.  The guy that jumped out at me is Bryan Mata.  The hard-throwing minor leaguer shows up at 1.0 WAR which seems like a positive expectation for a guy with on eleven games above single A ball.  It would not shock me to see Mata progress rapidly though it is likely the 2021 Red Sox are not going to be in a position where they feel a need to rush a prospect.

Good stuff from Dan as always.  It’ll be interesting to see how the pitching staff comes together (or doesn’t) and at this point exactly how the baseball season itself comes together.

Have a wonderful holiday season one and all.  Be good to each other.