# VÖRÖS' BASEBALL ANALYSIS PAGE

## 2001 PLAYER PROJECTIONS

### An Explanation

Below are a list of important points to consider when going through the projections on this site (as well as projections from any other source). I'd appreciate it if you'd read through them before sending me a question or complaint about the projections. Your question may be answered here. Thanks.

• NEW FEATURES!: The biggest new feature is naturally that there will be pitcher projections this year. It's time to stop mincing words here and to start and try to unravel what has long been one of the ultimate challenges in projecting players. But in addition to this, I've also added a feature this year that should be of some use. You'll notice that the final column for both the hitters and pitchers is labeled "Rely". This column represents a number from 0 to 1 in which the higher the number is, the larger (and occassionally more relevant) the sample used to make the projection. Not every player has the same amount of track record to go on, so some guys are more of a guess than others. This number gives the reader some indication on who is being projected based on smaller samples, and therefore are more likely to be inaccurate than others. I hope you like this. Please let me know what you think of it.
• I've also tried to project playing time a little this year, since despite my pleas to people not to complain about it, they complain anyway. The playing time projections are not derived mathematically, but are instead rough guesstimates of how much I think they'll play based on their current status, injury history, and current opportunity with their club. The amount of playing time does not
• Though the numbers are rounded, the AVG/OBP/SLG numbers represent the numbers with the decimals retained. So if you decide to add up Jeff DaVanon's total bases from the projection and then divide by at bats, you're likely to get a different SLG than is shown. This is intentional, so as to more easily compare players who happen to play more often than I originally guessed they would.
• The projections are sorted by team, and each team is sorted by number of projected at bats. Each team section has at least a few notes about various players or situations. If you like this section, let me know and I can expand it in the future (You'll find that I can spout off endlessly about baseball if I'm allowed to, so there's always more I could say. :-))
• The projections are Park Adjusted this year (In 2000 they were not). For players not on the Rockies, don't worry about it much if they switch to other teams.
• Important!: For the pitchers, whether the pitcher starts or relieves does change his effectiveness in my projections. The pitchers will be designated as starter or reliever, but if I designate a guy one way, and he pitches the other, a simple rule of thumb is to lower a guys ERA by 0.25 if he moves from the rotation to the pen, and raise it 0.25 if it's vice versa. The key was to simply get the projections out, so this is an area which will get more work in the future.
• Enjoy!