VÖRÖS' BASEBALL ANALYSIS PAGE
Here's a list of things I get asked often and can answer rather quickly. If you require a lengthier answer or
your question isn't listed here, feel free to e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I'll get back to you.
- Do you have pitcher projections? Honestly, I really should by now, but I haven't put the whole thing together and done the grunt work so it looks like 2002
will now be the first year for Pitcher Projections. I can't stress how hard projecting pitchers is for a variety of reasons, and so I think to really help
people, I have to sort out all the solvable problems, and the ones I've been unable to solve to at least be able to address here on the site. I'm 95% sure I'll have pitcher projections for 2002.
Until then DIPS will give you a bit better idea of how the pitcher is likely to pitch than just his raw stats alone.
- There's no way Cliff Floyd is getting over 600 PAs, he's always hurt. What gives? Read the home page. All projections are done for the exact same amount of playing time for all non-catchers. All catchers have
the same playing time though it's less than non-catchers. I do this because I don't know
how much Player A is going to play this year. Even Player A's manager doesn't really
know how much he'll play. Maybe Player A will get hurt. Maybe the player in front of Player A will get hurt. Maybe the manager will be fired and the new manager will play Player A more or less than the old one.
It's too difficult to predict, and, really, it's irrelevant. I'm trying to measure abilities and their effects on performance. The exact outcome of that performance is unknown, which is a valuable point to understand in order
to understand the benefits and limitations of projection systems.
- The young players don't show as much improvement as I think they should. Why is that? Because there's at least some information that this is correct. A lot of the increase noticed in young
players anecdotally is due to the fact that if young players don't improve, they tend to disappear. But this is an area where I think it's very possible the system could need some improvement.
- Are these Brock2 projections? No. For those that don't know, Brock2 was a projection system devised by Bill James about 16 years ago. While it is still kind of fun to look at, it is a bit outdated
as the system was created before homer fever swept MLB.
I'll post more questions here in the future. Thanks for reading.
April 1, 2001