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What if Joe Jackson hadn't been banned?

by Dan Levitt
Essays


Alternative history by its very nature is completely speculative.  But since others have estimated Jackson's career batting totals had he not been banned, I thought it might be interesting to take a closer look.  

Although Jackson was already 31 by 1920, that year saw the beginning of the lively ball era and the rise of batting averages throughout baseball.  Thus, it is not obvious how his lifetime batting average of .356 would have been affected had he remained active.

Joe Jackson was born in 1889 according to Total Baseball.  I found eight other players born between 1888 and 1890 who had at least 1200 at bats and a .300 average through 1920.  Two, Benny Kauff, who himself was banned, and Vin Campbell, a Federal Leaguer who was unable to get back into the majors after the FL folded, never played after 1920.  The remaining six are listed below:

Batting Averages through 1920

LastName        FirstName       YoB     AB      H       AVG JACOBSON        BABY DOLL       1890    1773    532     .300 McINNIS         STUFFY          1890    5231    1607    .307 RICE            SAM             1890    1995    637     .319 SPEAKER         TRIS            1888    6521    2232    .342 VEACH           BOBBY           1888    4456    1356    .304 WHEAT           ZACK            1888    5749    1738    .302  

Weighted Average                        4288    1350    .315

Arithmetic Average                                      .313

Here's how each of the six performed after 1920.

LastName        FirstName       YoB     AB      H       AVG     Diff JACOBSON        BABY DOLL       1890    3734    1182    .317    .016 McINNIS         STUFFY          1890    2591    798     .308    .001 RICE            SAM             1890    7274    2350    .323    .004 SPEAKER         TRIS            1888    3674    1282    .349    .007 VEACH           BOBBY           1888    2200    707     .321    .017 WHEAT           ZACK            1888    3357    1146    .341    .039

Weighted Average                        3805    1244    .327    .012

Arithmetic Average                                      .327    .014

 

The average at bats after 1920 was 3,805 and the average (unweighted) increase in batting average for the six players was .014.  Assuming that post-1920, Jackson hit .014 better than his average through 1920 gives him the following hypothetical career:

Last            First           YoB     AB      H       AVG JACKSON         JOE             1889    4981    1772    .356

Plus Post 1920                          3805    1406    .369

Hypothetical Career                     8786    3178    .362

Ty Cobb holds the highest lifetime batting average at .367.  For Jackson to get to .368 for the highest all-time average would have required him to hit .384 (1,461 in 3,805) after 1920.  While this .028 increase might have been unlikely, it is not absurd.  After all, of the six, one (Wheat) increased by much more than this.

by Dan Levitt


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This page updated February 06, 2000.

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